2011年美赛数学建模二等奖论文电动车推广(张兆颖余梦娜冯帅)

2011年美赛数学建模二等奖 论文 政研论文下载论文大学下载论文大学下载关于长拳的论文浙大论文封面下载 电动车推广(张兆颖余梦娜冯帅) Team # 9448 A Feasibility Study of the Promotion of Electric Vehicles February 14, 2011 Summary This thesis attempts to offer a tentative study of the promotion of EV from the following aspects: environment, energy, economy and country. The paper is aiming to formulate such models as motor vehicle pollution, cloud system, power-charging facilities planning and its development trend by making use of the methods of factor analysis and optimal planning. The quantitative forecast of the development of electric cars shall be made with the help of Excel and Matlab. Spontaneously the development trend model will be optimized step by step until the final strategies for the globalization of EV are proposed on the basis of approving the development EV. We first shall make a quantitative comparison of some indicators of a single BEV and a fuel car of the similar type. With the analysis of their respective strengths and weaknesses, we shall construct an EV analysis model. The solution to the model leads to the conclusion that if 1% of the total number of cars of the world are replaced by Tesla Roadster in 2011, 4.56×109 L petroleum will be saved and 6.57×105 t of exhaust gas will be reduced. As of the aspect of environment, through the classification of the motor vehicles, we shall segment the problem of pollutant emission of a single EV into the model for the pollutants of different items. According to the pollutant indicator from different motor vehicles, the EV has an absolute advantage on the aspect of environmental protection. The forecast made on the basis of our analysis is that 30.8% of pollutants will be reduced on average for every 1% increase of use of EV, i.e., if 10,000 fuel cars are replaced by EV, 33,000 tons of CO2 emissions is reduced annually. As of the aspects of energy. we can forecast the development trend for global petroleum consumption and the increase of EV in the coming 40 years with the use of regression analysis. With an annual increase of 5% of EVs, the amount of petroleum saved will grow from 384.176 million tons in 2010 to 2605.888 million tons in 2040. In addition, this incremental change for this trend will be accelerating. As of the aspect of economy, we conclude through the car manufacture cost model and its life cycle model that the cost advantage of EV lies in the price rise of non-renewable resources and its disadvantage lies in the higher development cost of the battery and the immaturity of effective power-charging facilities. Then, through our study of the battery lease system and the building system of power-charging station, we shall construct the cloud system model and optimal planning model; ultimately compute the number of optimal power-charging stations and discover the best locations to build them. We shall make different proposals for development trend in different countries through our comparison of the year-on-year growth rate of the energy consumption. We also take taxation rate into production cost model which will represent the apparent influence of taxation policies of different countries. With our gradual analysis of depth, especially our analysis of cloud system model, we propose some innovative methods to improve power generation according to the climates in different countries. We shall further our study on the aspect of opportunity cost of the development of electric car. Keywords: EV, Regression method, Cloud system, Optimal planning, Sensitivity Analysis Team#9448 Page 2 of 22 Contents 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Background ............................................................................................................ 3 1.2 Problems ................................................................................................................. 3 2 Problem Analysis ........................................................................................................... 3 3 A simple model and application .................................................................................... 3 3.1 Comparative Economic Indicators ......................................................................... 3 3.2 Analysis of Economic Influence ............................................................................ 4 3.3 Analysis of Environmental Influence ..................................................................... 4 3.4 Sensitivity Analysis ................................................................................................ 5 3.5 Brief Summary ....................................................................................................... 5 4 Environment .................................................................................................................. 5 4.1 Classification of motor vehicles ............................................................................. 5 4.2 Vehicle pollution model.......................................................................................... 6 4.3 Vehicle pollution situation ...................................................................................... 7 4.4 Trend Forecast ........................................................................................................ 8 4.5 Brief Summary ....................................................................................................... 9 5 Energy ........................................................................................................................... 9 5.1 Save energy ............................................................................................................ 9 5.2 Efficiency ............................................................................................................. 10 5.3 Brief Summary ..................................................................................................... 10 6 Economic ..................................................................................................................... 10 6.1 Motor vehicle cost analysis ............................................................................... 11 6.2 Economic Benefits ............................................................................................ 13 6.3 Cloud Computing .............................................................................................. 15 6.4 The Improved Cloud System Model ................................................................. 17 6.5 Charging facilities planning .............................................................................. 17 6.6 Brief Summary .................................................................................................. 18 7 Country ........................................................................................................................ 19 7.1 Classifying Countries ........................................................................................ 19 7.2 Development of electric vehicles ...................................................................... 19 7.3 Policies .............................................................................................................. 20 7.4 Brief Summary .................................................................................................. 21 8 Conclusions ................................................................................................................. 21 8.1 Promote the advantages of EV .......................................................................... 21 8.2 Risk and overcome measures ............................................................................ 21 9 Future work ................................................................................................................. 22 References .................................................................................................................... ..... 22 Team#9448 Page 3 of 22 1 Introduction 1.1 Background [1] Vehicle energy consumption accounts for nearly a quarter of the global energy consumption. Along with the economic growth of the developing countries, the purchase and use of the car are dramatically increasing, leading to serious energy and environmental problems. Though automobiles have made a significant contribution to humanity, they will have to undergo a green revolution to protect our environment. A great deal of improvement has been made on the car both to take full advantage of the role of it, and to reduce the consumption of oil resources and to control harmful gas emissions effectively. Electric vehicles are given considerable attention by all countries for its obvious advantages: less environmental pollution and noise, the use of several kinds of energy. As a new energy vehicle, electric cars have become a new direction for the automobile industry. 1.2 Problems At present main problems existing in the development of EV[2] is: Limited driving range, the battery service life is short, battery size and quality constraints, expensive, indirect pollution is serious. Aiming at these problems of electric vehicles, Our analysis focused on the following points: ?Power source; ?Whether and how to energy saving energy; ?The demand and evaluation of alternative electricity; ?Electric vehicles’ impacts on the environment, economy, energy; ?The social benefits of widespread use of electric vehicles; ?Electric vehicles related issues in other areas. 2 Problem Analysis Research problems can be divided into: environment, energy, economic and national four aspects. In order to qualitative analysis of the problem, make quantitative comparison between motor vehicle with electric vehicles. We make price as a measure of economic efficiency of electric vehicles, make pollutants as environmental benefit indexes, and make energy produced as energy efficiency measure. 3 A simple model and application [3] We select a popular and advanced performance BEV(Tesla Roadster) produced by Tesla Motors in America today. Then we compare Tesla Roadster with CR-V(Fuel automobile).As with other electric vehicles, battery electric vehicles use electric motors and motor controllers instead of internal combustion engines (ICE) for propulsion. 3.1 Comparative Economic Indicators Tesla Roadster adopts the most commonly used 18650 lithium-ion battery as a power source. Tesla Roadster have the unprecedented mileage limits, more advanced performance and apply much energy-saving components because of Lithium battery of high energy density. In addition, driving performance of Tesla Roadster is roughly equal to the same type of fuel vehicles. For simplified model, when we calculate vehicles cost, considering vehicle purchase cost, running cost, maintenance cost factor and a critical factor which is the price of electric vehicle Team#9448 Page 4 of 22 batteries. Because the battery will fail after a certain number charge and discharge, which means to replace the battery. That is: Vehicles Cost=Purchase Cost+ Running Cost + Maintenance Cost+ Battery Replacement Cost Tesla Roadster market price is $109,000, Honda CR-V is $33,000; The Running speed of Tesla Roadster is 18kWh/100km (assuming the residential electricity price is 0.05 dollar/kWh). The Running speed of Honda CR-V is 9.5L/100km(assuming that 93# gasoline price is 0.4748 dollars/L by present). The whole life trip mileage of them is 16 million km (Setting the service life are 10 years). Assuming Honda CR - V maintenance fee is $2000. Because of the Honda CR - V used relatively less component relatively lower failure rate, an annual maintenance fee can reduce 70% above that is to $600. The batteries price and life of Tesla Roadster are $12,000 and 7 years (The driving range is 354km). Thus we can get economical comparisons between electric cars and fuel automobile (Table 1). [4] 3.2 Analysis of Economic Influence From table 1, Tesla Roadster has obvious economic advantages than traditional fuel car in running process. However, the car prices and battery costs of Tesla Roaster accounted for 84.86% and 9.34% of the total cost, both of them is 94.2% of total cost. The two cost have serious influences on BEV economy. 3.3 Analysis of Environmental Influence Without considering the influence of economic factors, If we according to Euro ? standard, every car exhaust emissions amount for 219kg on average every year. Auto possession is 300 million in the United States 2010, if we use 1% automobile to replace Tesla Roadster, we can calculate Gasoline savings according to the formula Total vehicle* Replacement ratio of electric cars* Gasoline consumed per year per vehicle. Results are as follows: according to the formula Total vehicle* Replacement ratio of electric cars* Gas emissions per vehicle per year. Results are as follows: Team#9448 Page 5 of 22 3.4 Sensitivity Analysis We select car service life, car price, oil prices, battery price, annual average maintenance cost as parameters of car of the total cost of the sensitivity analysis, and with the total cost of the percentage change as indicators analysis. Setting factors change range for - 10% ~ 10%, we calculate the rate of whole life cost under each change circumstances (Table 2). By sensitivity analysis data and image available, the factors affecting the total cost of pure ranking, namely the influence factors of electric vehicles from large to small order is car price, price, car battery service life, with an average annual maintenance cost, oil prices. We discussed systematically two representative car type comprehensive economical comparison and analysis, the results showed that the BEV full life cycle costs than fuel automobile, but the BEV operating costs far less fuel automobile, and influence of BEV full life cycle cost is the main factor for vehicle price, battery prices; To further enhance the efficiency of BEVs, currently endeavor direction is to reduce vehicle production cost, develop more advanced low-cost battery, and improving battery life. 3.5 Brief Summary Two representative type Tesla Roadster and the Honda CR-V are to conduct a comprehensive comparison and economic analysis systematically. The results show that the operating costs of BEV are far less than the cost of fuel vehicles, but the full life cycle costs of BEV are higer than fuel vehicles. The main factors which affect the whole life cost of BEV are vehicle price, the price and life of the battery. The main factors which affect the whole life cost of fuel vehicles are vehicle price and fuel price. To further enhance the BEV economical efficiency, The direction of current efforts is to reduce vehicle production cost, develop more advanced low-cost battery, while improving battery life and solve problems power source. Following our in-depth study, we conduct the feasibility of using EV in market research separately from four aspects which are environmental, economic, energy and government policy. 4 Environment In fact, Putting into use of EVs are not just for BEV, more is not limited to a kind of product. We adopt the classification of motor vehicles to make the study more close to reality, and analyze EVs the specific influences on the environment through quantitative modeling 4.1 Classification of motor vehicles [5] Motor vehicles are classified as EVs and Ordinary vehicles. To facilitate the research, we will divide EVs into BEV, HEV and FC. BEV is recognized as the most ideal transportation which is a kind of zero emission car completely powered by secondary battery, HEV is a new vehicle benefit for marketization in electric vehicle development process, Team#9448 Page 6 of 22 which is general refers to two kinds of power by internal combustion engines and electric motors. Fuel cell electric vehicle regard a fuel cell as a power source. Fuel cells are using hydrogen and oxygen (or air) under the action of the catalyst directly by electrochemical reactions to generate electricity device, with full pollution-free (emissions is water) advantages. The pollutions of Ordinary motor vehicle on the environment are mainly from emissions, and EVs pollutions are mainly generated by electricity generation. We will model with quantitative research on vehicle and environmental issues as follow.. 4.2 Vehicle pollution model We will number BEV, HEV, FCV and Ordinary motor vehicles are 1,2,3,4. Total global vehicle: ( ) and Ordinary motor vehicle) in the market. N represent total global vehicle. Three kinds of EVs (BEV, HEV and FCV) consume the total energy by driving 1km: Electric energy can be divided into pollution and pollution-free according to different sources of electricity generation. For example, electricity generation from wind, water and solar is pollution-free, but Petroleum and coal are regard as polluting power because of producing pollutants during electricity generation. Direct pollution of EVs consumed the amount of electric energy: amount of electric energy fuel provided by jth: Thus, we can get total indirect emissions Cfrom the global motor vehicles by electric energy per 1?: j,z5 The energy consumption of Ordinary motor vehicles and HEVs are provided by the fuel energy, which we can calculate the total energy provided by the fuel: presents emissions from fuel producing a unit of energy , total indirect emissions by motor vehicle using fuel per 1km Total global pollutants N=Electric vehicle emissions C+ Ordinary motor vehicle emissions P: Team#9448 Page 7 of 22 5 j,z With this model, We can converse the problem whether the promotion of electric vehicles can achieve environmental improvement or not into a quantitative analysis whether a decline in the proportion of ordinary vehicle could lead to a decline in the amount of global pollution. Meanwhile, we use the model to research the influences of EVs in saving fuel oil according to electricity generation conversion rate in order to insure whether EVs can reduce environmental pollution. In the following analysis, we will make instructions with the actual situation 4.3 Vehicle pollution situation [5] We are considering the alternative fuel itself, vehicle system and the impact of factors, from the emissions, cost and other aspects of energy conversion efficiency, to evaluate and analyze the environmental impact of electric vehicles. Assuming there is no difference between taxes and fees, no grants system, no accommodative policies or other factors to impact, we compared to analyze different types of fuel and vehicle technology, emissions, energy efficiency and cost on the basis of the same level. We analyze the differences between three types EVs and conventional vehicles mainly from greenhouse gas emissions(CO2), exhaust emissions(NOx、NMHC), particulate emissions (PM10)etc. Specific datas are shown in table 3. Table 3 Various Types of Motor Vehicle Emissions NO,+ PM/? Car category NMHC\kg RFG 27.5 140 Diesel 24.9 0 Hybrid 23.2 80 Battery Electric 20.3 120 M85 18.9 165 Gasoline 16.8 150 co2\t 45 39 29 30 46.5 44 Emissions NO,+ PM/? Car category NMHC\kg CNG 16.4 175 LNG 16.5 176 LPG 6.8 270 Hydrogen FC 2.9 30 Ethanol 0.4 300 E85 0.5 225 co2\t 32 31 35 18 41 46 According to the data in the table draw a histogram to observe the influences of all types of cars on the environment (Figure 1~3). Figure 1 NOx emissions Different types of alcohols car with ethanol production process produce the massive NOx gas and has bigger difference, but its level of ozone precursor’s emissions are higher than conventional gasoline. The ozone precursor’s emissions of fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles respectively reduce by 80% and 40%, which have very remarkable efficacy on reducing emissions compared with the traditional fuel automobile. Team#9448 Page 8 of 22 Figure 2 PM emissions Particulates emissions are mainly composed from fuel burning in the car engine inside. BEV and ethanol car produced higher level of particulate emissions. The particulate emissions of BEV are basic from the electricity generation process. LPG car produce seldom particulate emissions during electricity generation process mainly that because fuel h/c ratio is higher. CNG, LNG of natural gas vehicle and methanol car produce essentially similar particulate emissions approximate to oil fuel automobile’s average. Figure 3 CO2emissions From the graph, pure ethanol or 85% ethanol automobile compared with traditional car cannot effectively reduce emissions of greenhouse gases. But EVs and HEV compared with the traditional cars can reduce 30% emissions .what’s more, methanol or hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle can reduce 50% greenhouse gases emissions. The analysis results show that pure electric and hybrid and hydrogen fuel cells and other new energy vehicles compared with traditional gasoline, diesel car improve effectively emissions in total life cycle. While, greenhouse gas emissions can reduce 20% ~ 50%, ozone precursors can reduce 80% at the most; the PM particulate emissions produced by fuel cell vehicle reduce greatly. 4.4 Trend Forecast [6] Firstly, assuming use the Non-electric cars completely in the future. According to the 1980 ~ 2009 global pollutants data provided by the United States census bureau, we adopt Gray forecast method to predict the global pollutant emissions trend in next 70 years. (Redline shown in figure 4.) Secondly, assuming use the EVs completely in the future. We adopt the same method to predict the global pollutant emissions trend in next 70 years (Blue line shown in figure 4) . In next 40 years, due to the increase in the number of electric vehicles, immature technical can lead to pollutants increase by 0.82%. However, with science and technology development and technology improvement will reduce the unit of EVs emissions. Therefore, the total amount of pollutant presents the slight up then slight down trend. In the early electric promotion，because of the electric immature vehicle technology, the low total quantity of BEV and market ratios, the effectively and sustainable development Team#9448 Page 9 of 22 BEV market mechanism have not be formed yet. Therefore, in a short time, vehicle market will still be primarily with fuel motor vehicle. As time goes on, environmental protection and energy-saving BEV will gradually become mainstreams according to the BEV market analysis (Figure 5). Figure 4 Pollution trends Figure 5 Predict the future Finally, EVs replace ordinary motor vehicles. In the global automotive market, EVs replace 1% ordinary motor vehicles will reduce 30.8% pollutants emission on average. If one million vehicles fuel vehicles are replaced with EVs, it will reduce 3.3 million tons of carbon dioxide emissions. From environmental protection perspective, we should vigorously popularize the EVs and reduce the production and usage of vehicle. From the environmental aspects look, we should popularize the use of general electric; reduce the production and usage of vehicle to some extent. 4.5 Brief Summary Compared with ordinary vehicles, EVs are more environmentally friendly. As the deterioration of the earth natural environment and the strengthening of people environmental protection consciousness, EV industry has been paid more and more attention to. 5 Energy The 21st century is the problem of human society facing serious energy challenges of the century. The experts predict that oil reserves can be mined for 40 years. Recoverable reserves of natural gas can also be mined for 64 years. Coal reserves can also mining 226 years. The use of electric vehicles can not only improve the environment but also save non-renewable energy. 5.1 Save energy [7] According to the 1980~2009 non-renewable energy sources data based on U.S. Energy Network, we use regression methods to predict the future global oil consumption in 40 years. Then we found it is a serious oil shortage situation. In addition, according to the1999~2009 global BEV production data based on U.S. Census Bureau, we calculate the growth rate of global EVs putting into usage. In the next 40 years, we assume that the average growth rate of BEV is 5%. It will reduce the annual average of 4.087 tons of oil when a BEV take place of motor vehicles. That means we can predict the amount of oil after BEV has been used in the next 40 years.(Figure 6). 5% annual increase in EV, the oil-savings by the amount of 384.176 million tons in 2010 increased to 2,605.888 million tons by 2040, showed an increasing trend of oil savings. The saving oil amount by 384.176 million tons in 2010 increased to 2605.888 million tons in 2040, Team#9448 Page 10 of 22 increasing trend of oil savings. If the global popularizations use BEV instead of motor vehicle, more common non-renewable energy will be saved. Figure 6 Oil consumption and savings 5.2 Alternative efficiency analysis Considering extensive use, we assume that the global electric vehicle number annual growth rate is 10%,20%,30%,40%,50% and 60% respectively after 2010. For different growth rate we discuss next 40 years produce energy saving effect respectively. Because automotive fuel from oil mostly, so we consider the volume of oil the electric car save. (Table 4) From the table, with EVs increasing at different rates, it has a big difference on saving oil quantity. The growth rate and increased popularity of EVs will have obvious effects on saving oil. Considering the large-scale EVs and preferential subsidies of the government, this will improve electricity-oil substitution effect in the future 5.3 Brief Summary Over the past few years, billions of dollars were invested in alternative energy technologies and related businesses. The next decade, according to Boston Consulting Group’s latest report, the four cost-competitive areas are advanced biofuels, land-based wind energy, solar photovoltaic energy, and concentrated solar thermal power generation. We should seek the development of electric cars for more power sources to achieve maximum cost-competitive access. 6 Economic One of the important reasons of greatly hinder the development of electric vehicles is that the cost is too high, resulting in producers do not willing to produce, consumers do not want to buy. In the following analysis, we will examine the potential cost advantages of electric vehicles.