leslie模型人口预测程序

leslie模型人口预测程序 %WBS矩阵是按列存放了2005年城镇的女性比例，女性死亡率，农村女性比例，女性死亡 率 WBS=[0.43,8.09,0.54,18.55;0.42,0.67,0.51,1.96;0.38,0.21,0.51,1.31;0.42,0.39,0.51,0.66;0.45,0.35,0.56,0.61;0.47,0.35,0.58,0.66;0.46,0.19,0.58,0.28;0.51,0.16,0.64,0.19;0.52,0.13,0.66,0.3;0.53,0.1,0.68,0.35;0.59,0.16,0.78,0.28;0.57,0.17,0.74,0.39;0.61,0.15,0.85,0.36;0.63,0.22,0.89,0.25;0.68,0.27,0.98,0.33;0.79,0.12,1.1,0.44;0.8,0.24,0.95,0.52;0.8,0.28,0.78,0.63;0.87,0.4,0.74,0.59;0.73,0.24,0.58,0.95;0.65,0.13,0.53,0.82;0.67,0.31,0.52,0.78;0.7,0.31,0.54,0.92;0.86,0.27,0.62,0.62;0.76,0.23,0.56,0.8;0.74,0.32,0.57,1.12;0.81,0.36,0.57,0.65;0.8,0.2,0.57,0.91;0.77,0.21,0.54,0.88;0.85,0.36,0.61,1.16;0.88,0.41,0.65,0.86;0.95,0.3,0.74,1.02;1,0.47,0.77,1.31;1.03,0.44,0.82,1.29;1.06,0.47,0.86,1.25;1.13,0.45,0.98,1.21;1.04,0.59,0.92,1.5;1.13,0.79,1.03,1.49;0.87,0.7,0.87,1.29;0.99,0.77,0.97,1.57;1.02,0.72,0.97,1.42;1.01,0.9,0.91,1.74;1.21,0.85,1.04,1.38;0.87,1.08,0.82,1.98;0.5,1.28,0.45,1.8;0.65,1.32,0.55,2.24;0.58,1.69,0.5,2.35;0.74,1.4,0.67,2.53;0.81,2.14,0.78,2.97;0.74,1.58,0.74,3.14;0.78,2.3,0.8,3.5;0.78,2.21,0.77,3.19;0.69,2.64,0.74,3.67;0.7,2.88,0.74,3.87;0.59,3.65,0.63,4.55;0.58,3.58,0.63,4.25;0.56,3.97,0.59,5.63;0.48,4.41,0.52,5.59;0.47,4.28,0.51,6.7;0.43,5.74,0.47,7.61;0.4,6.42,0.46,8.44;0.37,6.24,0.41,8.84;0.35,8,0.39,10.1;0.35,7.79,0.37,11.52;0.34,7.77,0.36,12.74;0.36,9.77,0.38,13.6;0.3,8.93,0.3,15.86;0.33,12.35,0.33,16.91;0.31,14.71,0.32,18.02;0.31,15.59,0.32,22.65;0.31,16.52,0.33,24.85;0.27,17.63,0.29,24.93;0.27,20.88,0.3,31.72;0.23,24.65,0.26,35.49;0.2,24.35,0.24,35.81;0.21,29.3,0.25,41.21;0.17,32.96,0.2,46.71;0.17,37.02,0.2,49.67;0.15,41.72,0.18,56.38;0.12,47.67,0.15,66.39;0.12,56.08,0.16,67.87;0.1,58.44,0.13,74.28;0.09,62.81,0.11,85.12;0.08,69.85,0.1,95.39;0.07,86.93,0.08,107.1;0.06,83.58,0.07,120.52;0.04,91.58,0.05,118.08;0.03,111.83,0.04,139.25;0.03,113.52,0.03,130.75;0.02,132.44,0.03,157.34;0.07,232.71,0.08,237.02]; %WR矩阵存放的是2005年城镇和农村女性总人口 WR=[3791447,4606484]; %WS矩阵按列存放城镇女性生育率，农村女性生育率 WS=[0.01 0.07 0.14 0.43 0.65 2.03 2.08 6.31 6.79 16.96 18.73 44.18 31.45 70.14 36.34 76.53 52.00 77.73 52.74 73.13 46.39 63.69 44.37 54.54 39.58 46.68 30.21 41.40 25.35 37.40 20.53 32.17 16.86 30.44 13.75 23.78 10.79 19.02 8.51 14.22 6.65 10.52 4.63 7.91 4.15 5.67 2.29 3.97 1.61 2.84 1.35 1.73 0.70 1.18 0.73 0.88 0.67 0.63 0.34 0.78 0.40 0.44 0.29 0.45 0.23 0.32 0.33 0.39 0.32 0.37 ]; WS(:,1)=1.7*WS(:,1); WS(:,2)=1.0*WS(:,2);%分别对城镇农村的生育率修正 t=T-2005; %构造Leslie矩阵 leslie1=zeros(91,91); leslie2=zeros(91,91); leslie1(1,16:50)=WS(1:35,1)/1000; leslie2(1,16:50)=WS(1:35,2)/1000; for i=1:90 leslie1(i+1,i)=1-WBS(i,2)/1000; leslie2(i+1,i)=1-WBS(i,4)/1000; end leslie1(91,91)=1-WBS(91,2)/1000; leslie2(91,91)=1-WBS(91,4)/1000; d10=WR(1)/0.49788*WBS(1:91,1)/100; d20=WR(2)/0.49168*WBS(1:91,3)/100; %求2005-T年的人口情况 a=100000000; for i=1:t d1=leslie1*d10; d2=leslie2*d20; d=[d1,d2]; Z(i)=sum(sum(d)); Z(i)=Z(i)*2.18/0.013/a;%化总人口以亿人为单位 %进行城镇化分析 d10=d(:,1)+sum(0.01*d,2); d20=d(:,2)-sum(0.01*d,2); %对未来人口分布的分析 laonian60(i,:)=sum(d(61:91,:))*2.18/0.013/a;%60岁以上的老年人口 laonian65(i,:)=sum(d(66:91,:))*2.18/0.013/a;%65岁以上的老年人口 l60b(i,:)=sum(laonian60(i,:))/Z(i);%60岁以上的老年人口占总人口的比例 l65b(i,:)=sum(laonian65(i,:))/Z(i);%65岁以上的老年人口占总人口的比例 yulin(i,:)=sum(d(16:50,:))*2.18/0.012/a;%育龄妇女人口 f=sum(d,2); fuyangbi(i,1)=(sum(f(1:15))+sum(f(66:91)))/sum(f(16:65));%人口抚养比 z(i,:)=sum(d)*2.18/0.012/a;%城镇总人口、农村总人口 end %画图