美联储货币政策会议纪要

美联储货币政策会议纪要MinutesoftheFederalOpenMarketCommitteeJune21–22,2011AjointmeetingoftheFederalOpenMarketCommit-teeandtheBoardofGovernorsoftheFederalReserveSystemwasheldintheofficesoftheBoardofGover-norsinWashington,D.C.,onTuesday,June21,2011,at10:30a.m.andcontinuedonWednesday,June22,2011,at9:00a.m.PRESENT:BenBernanke,ChairmanWilliamC.Dudley,ViceChairmanElizabethDukeCharlesL.EvansRichardW.FisherNarayanaKocherlakotaCharlesI.PlosserSarahBloomRaskinDanielK.TarulloJanetL.YellenJeffreyM.Lacker,DennisP.Lockhart,SandraPia-nalto,andJohnC.Williams,AlternateMem-bersoftheFederalOpenMarketCommitteeJamesBullard,ThomasM.Hoenig,andEricRo-sengren,PresidentsoftheFederalReserveBanksofSt.Louis,KansasCity,andBoston,respectivelyWilliamB.English,SecretaryandEconomistDeborahJ.Danker,DeputySecretaryMatthewM.Luecke,AssistantSecretaryDavidW.Skidmore,AssistantSecretaryMichelleA.Smith,AssistantSecretaryScottG.Alvarez,GeneralCounselDavidJ.Stockton,EconomistJamesA.Clouse,ThomasA.Connors,StevenB.Kamin,LorettaJ.Mester,DavidReifschneider,HarveyRosenblum,DanielG.Sullivan,DavidW.Wilcox,andKei-MuYi,AssociateEcono-mistsBrianSack,Manager,SystemOpenMarketAc-countJenniferJ.Johnson,SecretaryoftheBoard,OfficeoftheSecretary,BoardofGovernorsNellieLiang,Director,OfficeofFinancialStabilityPolicyandResearch,BoardofGovernorsRobertdeV.Frierson,DeputySecretary,OfficeoftheSecretary,BoardofGovernorsWilliamNelson,DeputyDirector,DivisionofMonetaryAffairs,BoardofGovernorsLindaRobertson,AssistanttotheBoard,OfficeofBoardMembers,BoardofGovernorsCharlesS.Struckmeyer,DeputyStaffDirector,OfficeoftheStaffDirector,BoardofGover-norsSethB.Carpenter,SeniorAssociateDirector,Divi-sionofMonetaryAffairs,BoardofGovernors;MichaelFoley,SeniorAssociateDirector,Di-visionofBankingSupervisionandRegulation,BoardofGovernors;LawrenceSlifmanandWilliamWascher,SeniorAssociateDirectors,DivisionofResearchandStatistics,BoardofGovernorsAndrewT.Levin,SeniorAdviser,OfficeofBoardMembers,BoardofGovernorsJoyceK.Zickler,VisitingSeniorAdviser,DivisionofMonetaryAffairs,BoardofGovernorsDanielM.CovitzandEricM.Engen,AssociateDirectors,DivisionofResearchandStatistics,BoardofGovernors;TrevorA.Reeve,Asso-ciateDirector,DivisionofInternationalFinance,BoardofGovernorsEgonZakrajšek,DeputyAssociateDirector,Divi-sionofMonetaryAffairs,BoardofGovernorsBethAnneWilson,AssistantDirector,DivisionofInternationalFinance,BoardofGovernorsDavidH.Small,ProjectManager,DivisionofMonetaryAffairs,BoardofGovernorsBrahimaCoulibaly,SeniorEconomist,DivisionofInternationalFinance,BoardofGovernors;Page1_____________________________________________________________________________________________LouiseSheiner,SeniorEconomist,DivisionofResearchandStatistics,BoardofGovernorsJean-PhilippeLaforte,¹Economist,DivisionofRe-searchandStatistics,BoardofGovernorsPenelopeA.Beattie,AssistanttotheSecretary,Of-ficeoftheSecretary,BoardofGovernorsRandallA.Williams,RecordsManagementAnalyst,DivisionofMonetaryAffairs,BoardofGov-ernorsJeffFuhrer,ExecutiveVicePresident,FederalRe-serveBankofBostonDavidAltig,GlennD.Rudebusch,andMarkE.Schweitzer,SeniorVicePresidents,FederalReserveBanksofAtlanta,SanFrancisco,andCleveland,respectivelyMichaelDotsey,¹WilliamGavin,AndreasL.Hornstein,andEdwardS.KnotekII,VicePresidents,FederalReserveBanksofPhiladel-phia,St.Louis,Richmond,andKansasCity,respectivelyMarcoDelNegro,¹JoshuaL.Frost,DeborahL.Leonard,andJonathanP.McCarthy,AssistantVicePresidents,FederalReserveBankofNewYorkJeffCampbell,¹SeniorEconomist,FederalReserveBankofChicago_______________________¹Attendedtheportionofthemeetingrelatingtodynamicstochasticgeneralequilibriummodels.DevelopmentsinFinancialMarketsandtheFed-eralReserve’sBalanceSheetThemanageroftheSystemOpenMarketAccount(SOMA)reportedondevelopmentsindomesticandforeignfinancialmarketsduringtheperiodsincetheFederalOpenMarketCommittee(FOMC)metonApril26–27,2011.HealsoreportedonSystemopenmarketoperations,includingthecontinuingreinvest-mentintolonger-termTreasurysecuritiesofprincipalpaymentsreceivedontheSOMA’sholdingsofagencydebtandagency-guaranteedmortgage-backedsecuri-ties,aswellastheongoingpurchasesofadditionalTreasurysecuritiesauthorizedattheNovember2–3,2010,FOMCmeeting.SinceNovember,purchasesbytheOpenMarketDeskoftheFederalReserveBankofNewYorkhadincreasedtheSOMA’sholdingsbynearlythefull$600billionauthorized.Inlightofongoingstrainsinsomeforeignfinancialmarkets,theCommitteeconsideredaproposaltoex-tenditsdollarliquidityswaparrangementswithforeigncentralbankspastAugust1,2011.Followingtheirdis-cussion,membersunanimouslyapprovedthefollowingresolution:TheFederalOpenMarketCommitteedirectstheFederalReserveBankofNewYorktoextendtheexistingtemporaryreciprocalcur-rencyarrangements(“swaparrangements”)fortheSystemOpenMarketAccountwiththeBankofCanada,theBankofEngland,theEuropeanCentralBank,theBankofJa-pan,andtheSwissNationalBank.TheswaparrangementsshallnowterminateonAu-gust1,2012,unlessfurtherextendedbytheCommittee.DynamicStochasticGeneralEquilibriumModelsAstaffpresentationprovidedanoverviewofongoingFederalReserveresearchondynamicstochasticgeneralequilibrium(DSGE)models.DSGEmodelsattempttocapturethedynamicsoftheoveralleconomyinawaythatisconsistentbothwiththehistoricaldataandwithoptimizingbehaviorbyforward-lookinghouse-holdsandfirms.ThepresentationbeganbydiscussingthegeneralfeaturesofDSGEmodelsandconsideringtheiradvantagesandlimitationsrelativetootherap-proachesofanalyzingmacroeconomicdynamics;withregardtothelatter,thepresentationnotedthatwhilethecurrentgenerationofDSGEmodelsisstillsome-whatlimitedintherangeofpolicyissuesthesemodelscanaddress,furtheradvancesinmodelingshouldin-creasetheusefulnessofDSGEmodelsforforecastingandpolicyanalysis.ThepresentationthenreviewedsomespecificfeaturesofDSGEmodelsthatarecur-rentlybeingstudiedattheFederalReserveBoardandtheFederalReserveBanksofNewYork,Philadelphia,andChicago.Thisreviewincludedthefourmodels’characterizationsoftheforcesaffectingtheeconomyinrecentyearsandthemodels’currentforecastsforrealeconomicactivity,inflation,andshort-terminterestrates.Indiscussingthestaffpresentation,meetingpar-ticipantsexpressedtheviewthatDSGEmodelsareausefuladditiontothewiderangeofanalyticalap-proachestraditionallyusedattheFederalReserve,inpartbecausetheyprovideaninternallyconsistentwayofexploringhowthebehaviorofeconomicagentsmightchangeinresponsetosystematicadjustmentstopolicy.Someparticipantsalsoexpressedinterestinseeingonaregularbasisprojectionsofkeymacroeco-nomicvariablesandotherproductsfromtheDSGEmodelsdevelopedintheSystem.Finally,participantsencouragedfurtherstaffworktoimprovethesemodelsby,forexample,expandingtherangeofquestionstheycanbeusedtoaddress.ExitStrategyPrinciplesTheCommitteediscussedstrategiesfornormalizingthestanceandconductofmonetarypolicy,followinguponitsdiscussionofthistopicattheAprilmeeting.ParticipantsstressedthattheCommittee’sdiscussionsofthistopicwereundertakenaspartofprudentplan-ninganddidnotimplythatamovetowardsuchnor-malizationwouldnecessarilybeginsometimesoon.Forconcreteness,theCommitteeconsideredasetofspecificprinciplesthatwouldguideitsstrategyofnor-malizingthestanceandconductofmonetarypolicy.Participantsdiscussedseveralspecificelementsoftheprinciples,includinghowtheyshouldcharacterizethemonetarypolicyframeworkthattheCommitteewouldadoptaftertheconductofpolicyreturnedtonormalandwhethertheprinciplesshouldencompassthepos-sibletimingbetweenthenormalizationsteps.Attheconclusionofthediscussion,allbutoneofthepartici-pantsagreedonthefollowingkeyelementsofthestrategythattheyexpecttofollowwhenitbecomesappropriatetobeginnormalizingthestanceandcon-ductofmonetarypolicy:∙TheCommitteewilldeterminethetimingandpaceofpolicynormalizationtopromoteitsstatutorymandateofmaximumemploymentandpricesta-bility.∙Tobegintheprocessofpolicynormalization,theCommitteewilllikelyfirstceasereinvestingsomeorallpaymentsofprincipalonthesecuritieshold-ingsintheSOMA.∙Atthesametimeorsometimethereafter,theCommitteewillmodifyitsforwardguidanceonthepathofthefederalfundsrateandwillinitiatetem-poraryreserve-drainingoperationsaimedatsup-portingtheimplementationofincreasesinthefed-eralfundsratewhenappropriate.∙Wheneconomicconditionswarrant,theCommit-tee’snextstepintheprocessofpolicynormaliza-tionwillbetobeginraisingitstargetforthefederalfundsrate,andfromthatpointon,changingthelevelorrangeofthefederalfundsratetargetwillbetheprimarymeansofadjustingthestanceofmonetarypolicy.Duringthenormalizationprocess,adjustmentstotheinterestrateonexcessreservesandtothelevelofreservesinthebankingsystemwillbeusedtobringthefundsratetowarditstarget.∙SalesofagencysecuritiesfromtheSOMAwilllike-lycommencesometimeafterthefirstincreaseinthetargetforthefederalfundsrate.Thetimingandpaceofsaleswillbecommunicatedtothepub-licinadvance;thatpaceisanticipatedtoberela-tivelygradualandsteady,butitcouldbeadjustedupordowninresponsetomaterialchangesintheeconomicoutlookorfinancialconditions.∙Oncesalesbegin,thepaceofsalesisexpectedtobeaimedateliminatingtheSOMA’sholdingsofagencysecuritiesoveraperiodofthreetofiveyears,therebyminimizingtheextenttowhichtheSOMAportfoliomightaffecttheallocationofcreditacrosssectorsoftheeconomy.SalesatthispacewouldbeexpectedtonormalizethesizeoftheSOMAsecuritiesportfoliooveraperiodoftwotothreeyears.Inparticular,thesizeofthesecuri-tiesportfolioandtheassociatedquantityofbankreservesareexpectedtobereducedtothesmallestlevelsthatwouldbeconsistentwiththeefficientimplementationofmonetarypolicy.∙TheCommitteeispreparedtomakeadjustmentstoitsexitstrategyifnecessaryinlightofeconomicandfinancialdevelopments.StaffReviewoftheEconomicSituationTheinformationreviewedattheJune21–22meetingindicatedthatthepaceoftheeconomicrecoveryslowedinrecentmonthsandthatconditionsinthelabormarkethadsoftened.Measuresofinflationpickedupthisyear,reflectinginparthigherpricesforsomecommoditiesandimportedgoods.Longer-runinflationexpectations,however,remainedstable.TheexpansionofprivatenonfarmpayrollemploymentinMaywasmarkedlybelowtheaveragepaceofjobgainsinthepreviousmonthsofthisyear.Initialclaimsforunemploymentinsurancerose,onnet,betweenthefirsthalfofAprilandthefirsthalfofJune.Theunem-ploymentratemovedupinAprilandthenrosefurtherto9.1percentinMay,whilethelaborforceparticipa-tionrateremainedunchanged.Bothlong-durationun-employmentandtheshareofworkersemployedparttimeforeconomicreasonscontinuedtobeelevated.TotalindustrialproductionexpandedonlyabitduringAprilandMayafterrisingatasolidpaceinthefirstquarter.ShortagesofspecializedcomponentsimportedfromJapancontributedtoadeclineintheoutputofmotorvehiclesandparts.Manufacturingproductionoutsideofthemotorvehiclessectorincreasedmod-erately,onbalance,duringthepasttwomonths.Themanufacturingcapacityutilizationrateremainedclosetoitsfirst-quarterlevel,butitwasstillwellbelowitslonger-runaverage.Forward-lookingindicatorsofin-dustrialactivity,suchasthenewordersdiffusionin-dexesinthenationalandregionalmanufacturingsur-veys,weakenednoticeablyduringtheintermeetingpe-riodtolevelsconsistentwithonlytepidgainsinfactoryoutputincomingmonths.However,motorvehicleassemblieswerescheduledtorisenotablyinthethirdquarterfromtheirlevelsinrecentmonths,asbottle-necksinpartssupplieswereanticipatedtoease.Growthinconsumerspendingdeclinedinrecentmonthsfromthealreadymodestpaceinthefirstquar-ter.TotalrealpersonalconsumptionexpendituresonlyedgedupinApril.Nominalretailsales,excludingpur-chasesatmotorvehiclesandpartsoutlets,increasedsomewhatinMay,butsalesofnewlightmotorvehiclesdeclinedmarkedly.Laborincomerosemoderately,asaggregatehoursworkedtrendedup,buttotalrealdis-posableincomeremainedflatinMarchandApril,asincreasesinconsumerpricesoffsetgainsinnominalincome.Inaddition,consumersentimentstayedrela-tivelylowthroughearlyJune.Activityinthehousingmarketremaineddepressed,asbothweakdemandandthesizableinventoryoffore-closedordistressedpropertiescontinuedtoholdbacknewconstruction.Startsandpermitsofnewsingle-familyhomeswereessentiallyunchangedinAprilandMay,andtheystayedneartheverylowlevelsseensincethemiddleoflastyear.Salesofnewandexistinghomesremainedatsubduedlevelsinrecentmonths,whilemeasuresofhomepricesfellfurther.Theavailableindicatorssuggestedthatrealbusinessinvestmentinequipmentandsoftwarewasrisingabitmoreslowlyinthesecondquarterthanthesolidpaceseeninthefirstquarter.Nominalordersandship-mentsofnondefensecapitalgoodsdeclinedinApril.BusinesspurchasesoflightmotorvehiclesedgedupinAprilbutdroppedinMay,whilespendingformediumandheavytruckscontinuedtoincreaseinrecentmonths.Surveymeasuresofbusinessconditionsandsentimentweakenedduringtheintermeetingperiod.Businessexpendituresforofficeandcommercialbuild-ingsremaineddepressedbyelevatedvacancyrates,lowpricesforcommercialrealestate,andtightcreditcondi-tionsforconstructionloans.Incontrast,outlaysfordrillingandminingstructurescontinuedtobeliftedbyhighenergyprices.Realnonfarminventoryinvestmentrosemoderatelyinthefirstquarter,butdataforAprilsuggestedthatthepaceofinventoryaccumulationhadslowed.Book-valueinventory-to-salesratiosinAprilweresimilartotheirpre-recessionnorms,andsurveydataalsosug-gestedthatinventorypositionsgenerallyremainedinacomfortablerange.Theavailabledataongovernmentspendingindicatedthatrealfederalpurchasesincreasedinrecentmonths,ledbyareboundinoutlaysfordefenseinAprilandMayfromunusuallylowlevelsinthefirstquarter.Incontrast,realexpendituresbystateandlocalgovern-mentsappearedtohavedeclinedfurther,asoutlaysforconstructionprojectsfellinMarchandApril,andstateandlocalemploymentcontinuedtocontractinAprilandMay.TheU.S.internationaltradedeficitwidenedslightlyinMarchandthennarrowedinApriltoalevelbelowitsaverageinthefirstquarter.Exportsrosestronglyinbothmonths,withincreaseswidespreadacrossmajorcategoriesinMarch,whilethegainsinAprilwerecon-centratedinindustrialsuppliesandcapitalgoods.Im-portsgrewrobustlyinMarch,buttheyfellslightlyinApril,asthedropinautomotiveimportsfromJapantogetherwiththedeclineinimportsofpetroleumproductsmorethanoffsetincreasesinotherimportedproducts.Headlineconsumerpriceinflation,whichhadriseninthefirstquarter,edgeddownabitinAprilandMay,asthepricesofconsumerfoodandenergydeceleratedfromthepaceseeninpreviousmonths.Morerecently,surveydatathroughthemiddleofJunepointedtode-clinesinretailgasolineprices,andpricesoffoodcom-moditiesappearedtohavedecreasedsomewhat.Ex-cludingfoodandenergy,coreconsumerpriceinflationpickedupinAprilandMay,pushingthe12-monthchangeinthecoreconsumerpriceindexthroughMayaboveitslevelofayearearlier.Upwardpressuresoncoreconsumerpricesappearedtoreflecttheelevatedpricesofcommoditiesandotherimports,alongwithnotableincreasesinmotorvehiclepriceslikelyarisingfromtheeffectsofrecentsupplychaindisruptionsandtheresultingextremelylowlevelofautomobileinven-tories.However,near-terminflationexpectationsfromtheThomsonReuters/UniversityofMichiganSurveysofConsumersmoveddownalittleinMayandearlyJunefromthehighlevelseeninApril,andlonger-terminflationexpectationsremainedwithintherangethathasgenerallyprevailedovertheprecedingfewyears.Availablemeasuresoflaborcompensationshowedthatlaborcostpressureswerestillsubdued,aswagein-creasescontinuedtoberestrainedbythelargeamountofslackinthelabormarket.Inthefirstquarter,unitlaborcostsonlyedgedup,asthemodestriseinhourlycompensationinthenonfarmbusinesssectorwasmostlyoffsetbyfurthergainsinproductivity.Morerecently,averagehourlyearningsforallemployeesroseinAprilandMay,buttheaveragerateofincreaseoverthepreceding12monthsremainedquitelow.Globaleconomicactivityappearedtohaveincreasedmoreslowlyinthesecondquarterthaninthefirstquarter.Therateofgrowthintheemergingmarketeconomiessteppeddownfromitsrapidpaceinthefirstquarter,althoughitremainedgenerallysolid.TheJapaneseeconomycontractedsharplyfollowingtheearthquakeinMarch,andtheassociatedsupplychaindisruptionsweighedontheeconomiesofmanyofJa-pan’stradingpartners.Thepaceofeconomicgrowthintheeuroarearemaineduneven,withGermanyandFrancepostingmoderategainsineconomicactivity,whiletheperipheralEuropeaneconomiescontinuedtostruggle.Recentdeclinesinthepricesofoilandothercommoditiescontributedtosomeeasingofinflationarypressuresabroad.StaffReviewoftheFinancialSituationInvestorsappearedtoadoptamorecautiousattitudetowardrisk,particularlylaterintheintermeetingperiod.Theshiftininvestors’sentimentlikelyreflectedtheweaktoneofincomingeconomicdataintheUnitedStatesalongwithconcernsabouttheoutlookforglobaleconomicgrowthandaboutpotentialspilloversfromapossiblefurtherdeteriorationofthesituationinperi-pheralEurope.ThedecisionsbytheFOMCatitsAprilmeetingtocontinueitsassetpurchaseprogramandtomaintainthe0to¼percenttargetrangeforthefederalfundsrateweregenerallyinlinewithmarketexpectations.TheaccompanyingstatementandsubsequentpressbriefingbytheChairmanpromptedamodestdeclineinnominalyields,asmarketparticipantsreportedlyper-ceivedasomewhatlessoptimistictoneintheCommit-tee’seconomicoutlook.Overtheremainderoftheintermeetingperiod,theexpectedpathforthefederalfundsrate,alongwithyieldsonnominalTreasuryse-curities,moveddownappreciablyfurther,asthebulkoftheincomingeconomicdatawasmoredownbeatthanmarketparticipantshadapparentlyanticipated.Consistentwiththeweaker-than-expectedeconomicdataandtherecentdeclineinthepricesofoilandothercommodities,measuresofinflationcompensationoverthenext5yearsand5to10yearsaheadbasedonnom-inalandinflation-protectedTreasurysecuritiesde-creasedconsiderablyovertheintermeetingperiod.Marketquotesdidnotsuggestexpectationsofsignifi-cantmovementsinnominalTreasuryyieldsfollowingtheanticipatedcompletionoftheassetpurchasepro-grambytheFederalReserveattheendofJune.Al-thoughdiscussionsaboutthefederaldebtceilingat-tractedattentioninfinancialmarkets,judgingfromTreasuryyieldsandotherassetprices,investorsseemedtoanticipatethatthedebtceilingwouldbeincreasedintimetoavoidanysignificantmarketdisruptions.Yieldsoncorporatebondssteppeddownmodestly,onnet,overtheintermeetingperiod,butbylessthanthedeclineinyieldsoncomparable-maturityTreasuryse-curities,leavingcreditriskspreadsalittlewider.Inthesecondarymarketforsyndicatedloans,conditionswerelittlechanged,withaveragebidpricesforleveragedloansholdingsteady.BroadU.S.stockpriceindexesdeclined,onnet,overtheintermeetingperiod,apparentlyinresponsetothedownbeateconomicdata.Stockpricesoffinancialfirmsunderperformedthebroadermarket,reflectingtheweakereconomicoutlook,potentialcreditratingdowngrades,andheightenedconcernsabouttheantic-ipatedcapitalsurchargeforsystemicallyimportantfi-nancialinstitutions.Option-adjustedvolatilityontheS&P500indexrosesomewhatonnet.IntheJune2011SeniorCreditOfficerOpinionSurveyonDealerFinancingTerms,dealerspointedtoacon-tinuedgradualeasingoverthepreviousthreemonthsincredittermsapplicabletomajorclassesofcounterpar-tiesacrossalltypesoftransactionscoveredinthesur-vey.Dealersalsoreportedthatthedemandforfundinghadincreasedoverthesameperiodforabroadrangeofsecurities,withtheexceptionofequities.Morere-cently,however,againstabackdropofdisappointingeconomicdata,heighteneduncertaintyaboutthesitua-tioninEurope,and,possibly,concernsabouttheU.S.federaldebtceiling,marketparticipantsreportedagen-eralpullbackfromrisk-takingandadeclineinliquidityinarangeoffinancialmarkets.NetdebtfinancingbynonfinancialcorporationswasstronginAprilandMay.Grossissuanceofbothin-vestment-andspeculative-gradebondsbynonfinancialcorporationshitarecordhighinMaybeforeslowingsomewhatinJune,andoutstandingamountsofcom-mercialandindustrial(C&I)loansandnonfinancialcommercialpaperincreased.Grosspublicequityis-suancebynonfinancialfirmsmaintainedasolidpaceovertheintermeetingperiod,andmostindicatorsofbusinesscreditqualityimprovedfurther.Commercialmortgagemarketscontinuedtoshowten-tativesignsofstabilization.Inrecentmonths,delin-quencyratesforcommercialrealestateloansedgeddownfromtheirpreviouspeaks.However,commer-cialrealestatemarketsremainedweak.Propertysalesweretepid,andpricesremainedatdepressedlevels.Issuanceofcommercialmortgage-backedsecuritiesslowedsomewhatinthesecondquarter.Conditionsinresidentialmortgagemarketswerelittlechangedoverallbutremainedstrained.Ratesoncon-formingfixed-rateresidentialmortgagesdeclinedaboutinlinewith10-yearTreasuryyieldsovertheintermeet-ingperiod.Mortgagerefinancingactivitypickedup,onnet,overtheintermeetingperiodbutwasstillrelativelysubdued.Outstandingresidentialmortgagedebtcon-tractedfur