中通公司财务预测模型

ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjAssumptions（假设）31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10Incomestatement（损益 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf ）Cellular%growth（手机业务增长率）87.8%23.0%20.0%15.0%10.0%9.0%8.0%8.0%Paging%growth（呼机业务增长率）(0.2%)(42.0%)(15.6%)(10.1%)(8.6%)(6.7%)(5.4%)(5.4%)Long-distancedataandinternet%growth（长途数据和因特网业务增长率）3.1%20.0%20.0%16.0%12.0%11.0%10.0%10.0%Telecommunicationproducts%growth（电信设备业务增长率）0.8%1.0%(5.0%)(12.0%)(18.2%)(17.4%)(17.4%)(17.4%)Leasedlines%oftelecomrevenues（租线费用/电信服务收入）(4.1%)(6.6%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.5%)(6.5%)(8.0%)(10.0%)(11.0%)Interconnectioncharges%oftelecomrevenues（互联费用/电信服务收入）(8.4%)(9.1%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)(9.0%)Depreciation%oflastyear'snetPP&E（折旧/上一年的固定资产净值）(15.1%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)(16.6%)Amortisationamount(RMB)（摊销费用，人民币）(1,000.8)(1,150.0)(800.0)(600.0)(400.0)(400.0)0.00.00.0Personnel%oftotalrevenues（员工费用/总收入）(8.2%)(6.8%)(8.6%)(8.6%)(9.4%)(9.4%)(9.4%)(10.0%)(11.0%)SG&Acosts%oftotalrevenues（一般管理销售费用/总收入）(28.6%)(37.2%)(37.0%)(38.0%)(39.0%)(40.0%)(40.0%)(40.0%)(40.0%)Costoftelecommunicationproducts%oftelecomproductsrevenue（电信设备成本/电信设备收入）(99.7%)(96.4%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)(100.0%)Otherincomeandexpensesamount（其他收入和费用）(16.0)(20.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Taxationrate（税率）(27.8%)(33.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(30.0%)(30.0%)(30.0%)Minorityinterestsincomegrowth%（少数股东权益收入增长率）(93.0%)5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%5.0%Weightedaveragenumberofsharesoutstanding（加权平均已发行普通股数）12,552.012,552.012,552.012,552.012,552.012,552.012,552.012,552.012,552.0Assets（资产）Interestrateoncash（现金的利率）3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%3.00%Cashandshort-termsecurities%oftotalrevenue（现金和短期证券/总收入）47.9%15.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%3.0%Accountsreceivable%oftotalrevenues（应收帐款/总收入）10.7%9.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%10.0%Receivablesfromthirdpartytelecoms%oftelecomrevenues（应收第三方电信帐款/电信服务收入）3.5%1.8%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%6.9%Inventories%oftelecomproductcosts（存货/电信设备成本）(144.4%)(72.5%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)(60.0%)Othercurrentassets%oftotalrevenues（其他流动资产/总收入）7.6%4.8%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%5.9%Capitalexpenditure%oftotalrevenues（资本性支出/总收入）105.5%39.8%60.0%40.0%30.0%30.0%22.0%21.0%25.0%Costmethodinvestmentsamount（成本法投资）130.70.0130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7Otherlong-termassets%growth（其他长期资产增长率）(21.1%)0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%Liabilities（负债）Interestrateonrevolverandshort-termdebt（循环贷款和短期债务的利率）(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)(5.80%)Short-termdebtissuance(repayment)（短期债务发行（偿还））1,829.0(7,975.0)(3,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.0Advancesfromcustomers%ofcellularandpagerrevenue（顾客预付款/手机和呼机业务收入）19.0%13.8%19.0%19.0%19.0%19.0%19.0%19.0%19.0%Payablesandaccruedliabilities%ofexpenses(excl.depn.andamort.)（应付帐款和应计负债/不含折旧和摊销的费用）(90.1%)(38.7%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)(88.1%)Payablestothirdpartytelecoms%oftelecomrevenue（应付给第三方电信的帐款/电信服务收入）5.6%3.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%6.0%Othercurrentliabilitiesamount（其他流动负债）6,095.06,259.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Long-termbankloansissuance(repayment)（长期银行贷款发行（偿还））(1,473.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Long-termbankandChinacomloansinterestrate（长期银行贷款利率）(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)Otherlong-termliabilities%oftotalrevenues（其他长期负债/总收入）0.4%0.2%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%0.5%Equity（股东权益）Sharecapitalincrease(decrease)（股本金增长（减少））0.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjCalculations（计算）31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10Netpropertyplantandequipment（厂房设备等固定资产净值）Beginningbalance（期初额）118,105.0147,171.9161,272.7167,504.1175,844.3175,473.2176,012.9Capitalexpenditure（资本性支出）42,809.026,888.048,672.438,531.333,002.736,145.928,819.129,668.238,117.0Depreciation（折旧）(19,605.4)(24,430.5)(26,771.3)(27,805.7)(29,190.1)(29,128.5)(29,218.1)Endingbalance（期末额）118,105.0147,171.9161,272.7167,504.1175,844.3175,473.2176,012.9184,911.8Retainedearnings（留存收益）Beginningbalance（期初额）67,029.072,225.677,902.484,325.992,284.0100,976.3110,076.6Netincome（净利润）5,196.65,676.86,423.57,958.18,692.39,100.39,743.7Endingbalance（期末额）67,029.072,225.677,902.484,325.992,284.0100,976.3110,076.6119,820.3Minorityinterest（少数股东权益）Beginningbalance（期初额）0.010.521.533.145.358.071.4Minorityinterestincome（少数股东权益收入）10.511.011.612.212.813.414.1Endingbalance（期末额）0.010.521.533.145.358.071.485.5Debt（债务）Financinggap(融资缺口)0.00.01,462.90.00.00.00.00.0Short-termdebtinterestrate（短期债务利率）(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)Interestexpenseonrevolver（循环贷款债务利息费用）0.0(42.4)(42.4)0.00.00.00.0Short-termdebtbalance（短期债务）10,975.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Short-termdebtinterestrate（短期债务利率）(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)(5.8%)Interestexpenseonshort-termdebt（短期债务利息费用）(405.3)(87.0)0.00.00.00.00.0Long-termdebtandChinacomloanbalance（长期债务）36,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0Long-termdebtinterestrate（长期债务利率）(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)(6.0%)Interestexpenseonlong-termdebt（长期债务利息费用）(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)Totalindebtedness（总债务）47,188.039,213.037,675.936,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0Totalinterestexpense（总利息费用）(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)Operatingworkingcapital（营运资金)Accountsreceivable（应收帐款）6,072.08,112.19,632.811,000.912,048.613,099.614,127.715,246.8Receivablesfromthirdpartytelecoms（应收第三方电信的帐款）1,193.05,439.76,496.97,458.88,205.78,949.79,674.610,459.5Inventories（存货）1,580.01,370.81,302.21,146.0937.4774.3639.6528.3Othercurrentassets（其他流动资产）3,266.04,786.15,683.46,490.57,108.77,728.88,335.48,995.6Advancesfromcustomers（向顾客预收帐款）8,243.013,671.716,321.418,719.320,557.722,382.024,151.926,064.6Payablesandaccruedliabilities（应付帐款和应计负债）16,323.045,020.053,902.263,352.470,053.377,574.186,641.795,990.8Payablestothirdpartytelecoms（应付给第三方电信帐款）1,930.04,730.25,649.56,485.97,135.47,782.38,412.79,095.3Othercurrentliabilities（其他流动负债）6,259.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Operatingworkingcapital（营运资金）(20,644.0)(43,713.2)(52,757.8)(62,461.4)(69,446.0)(77,186.1)(86,429.1)(95,920.4)Interestincome（利息收入）Cashbalance（总现金）10,133.02,932.32,889.812,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.865,983.1Interestrateoncash（现金的利率）3%3%3%3%3%3%3%Interestincome（利息收入）195.9887.33224.75477.76855.221388.371819.26ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjBalancesheet（资产负债表）31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10CashBalance（现金余额）19,431.010,133.02,932.32,889.812,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.865,983.1Accountsreceivable（应收帐款）4,327.06,072.08,112.19,632.811,000.912,048.613,099.614,127.715,246.8Receivablesfromthirdpartytelecoms（应收第三方电信的帐款）1,348.01,193.05,439.76,496.97,458.88,205.78,949.79,674.610,459.5Inventories（存货）3,229.01,580.01,370.81,302.21,146.0937.4774.3639.6528.3Othercurrentassets（其他流动资产）3,080.03,266.04,786.15,683.46,490.57,108.77,728.88,335.48,995.6Totalcurrentassets（总流动资产）31,415.022,244.022,640.926,005.138,189.448,057.767,809.588,078.1101,213.3Netpropertyplantandequipment（固定资产净值）107,486.0118,105.0147,171.9161,272.7167,504.1175,844.3175,473.2176,012.9184,911.8Goodwill（商誉）2,366.03,315.02,515.01,915.01,515.01,115.01,115.01,115.01,115.0Costmethodinvestments（成本法投资）130.70.0130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7130.7Otherlong-termassets（其他长期资产）7,824.36,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.06,174.0Totalassets（总资产）149,222.0149,838.0178,632.5195,497.5213,513.2231,321.7250,702.4271,510.6293,544.7FinancingGap（融资缺口）0.00.00.01,462.90.00.00.00.00.0Short-termdebt（短期债务）9,146.010,975.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Advancesfromcustomers（向顾客预收帐款）6,240.08,243.013,671.716,321.418,719.320,557.722,382.024,151.926,064.6Payablesandaccruedliabilities（应付帐款和应计负债）19,811.016,323.045,020.053,902.263,352.470,053.377,574.186,641.795,990.8Taxespayable（应交税金）1,106.01,432.02,025.02,211.92,502.53,099.53,730.73,905.94,181.9Payablestothirdpartytelecoms（应付给第三方电信帐款）2,152.01,930.04,730.25,649.56,485.97,135.47,782.38,412.79,095.3Othercurrentliabilities（其他流动负债）6,095.06,259.00.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Totalcurrentliabilities（总流动负债）44,550.045,162.068,446.879,547.991,060.1100,846.0111,469.1123,112.2135,332.6Long-termbankloans（长期银行贷款）37,686.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0Otherlong-termliabilities（其他长期负债）172.0103.0405.6481.6550.0602.4655.0706.4762.3Minorityinterests（少数股东权益）566.00.010.521.533.145.358.071.485.5Totalliabilities（总负债）82,974.081,478.0105,075.9116,264.1127,856.3137,706.7148,395.1160,103.0172,393.4Sharecapital（股本金）1,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.01,331.0Retainedearnings（留存收益）64,917.067,029.072,225.677,902.484,325.992,284.0100,976.3110,076.6119,820.3Shareholders'equity（股东权益）66,248.068,360.073,556.679,233.485,656.993,615.0102,307.3111,407.6121,151.3Totalliabilitiesandequity（负债和股东权益）149,222.0149,838.0178,632.5195,497.5213,513.2231,321.7250,702.4271,510.6293,544.7平衡吗？OKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKOKChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjIncomestatement（损益表）31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10Revenue（收入）Cellular（手机）30,612.057,484.070,705.384,846.497,573.3107,330.7116,990.4126,349.7136,457.6Paging（呼机）2,161.02,157.01,251.11,055.9949.2867.6809.5765.8724.4Long-distancedataandinternet（长途数据和因特网）5,558.05,733.06,879.68,255.59,576.410,725.611,905.413,095.914,405.5Telecomrevenues（电信服务收入）38,331.065,374.078,836.094,157.8108,099.0118,923.9129,705.3140,211.4151,587.6Telecommunicationproducts（电信设备）2,243.02,262.02,284.62,170.41,909.91,562.31,290.51,065.9880.5Totalrevenues（总收入）40,574.067,636.081,120.696,328.2110,008.9120,486.2130,995.8141,277.3152,468.0Leasedlines（租线费用）(1,583.0)(4,320.0)(4,730.2)(5,649.5)(7,026.4)(7,730.1)(10,376.4)(14,021.1)(16,674.6)Interconnectioncharges（互联费用）(3,229.0)(5,921.0)(7,095.2)(8,474.2)(9,728.9)(10,703.1)(11,673.5)(12,619.0)(13,642.9)Personnel（员工费用）(3,335.0)(4,575.0)(6,976.4)(8,284.2)(10,340.8)(11,325.7)(12,313.6)(14,127.7)(16,771.5)SG&Acosts（一般管理销售费用）(11,611.0)(25,157.0)(30,014.6)(36,604.7)(42,903.5)(48,194.5)(52,398.3)(56,510.9)(60,987.2)Costoftelecommunicationproducts（电信设备成本）(2,236.0)(2,180.0)(2,284.6)(2,170.4)(1,909.9)(1,562.3)(1,290.5)(1,065.9)(880.5)EBITDA（折旧摊销利息税收前的营业利润）18,580.025,483.030,019.635,145.238,099.340,970.542,943.542,932.643,511.4Depreciation（折旧）(10,255.0)(16,270.0)(19,605.4)(24,430.5)(26,771.3)(27,805.7)(29,190.1)(29,128.5)(29,218.1)Amortisation（摊销）(1,000.8)(1,150.0)(800.0)(600.0)(400.0)(400.0)0.00.00.0EBIT（利息和税收前的营业利润）7,324.28,063.09,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.313,804.014,293.2Otherincomeandexpenses（其他收入和费用）(16.0)(20.0)0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Interestincome（利息收入）470.0173.0196.087.3224.7477.8855.21,388.41,819.3Interestexpense（利息费用）(1,474.0)(1,936.0)(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)Profitbeforetax（税前利润）6,304.26,280.07,232.17,899.88,937.611,069.812,435.813,019.613,939.7Taxation（所得税）(1,752.0)(2,073.0)(2,025.0)(2,211.9)(2,502.5)(3,099.5)(3,730.7)(3,905.9)(4,181.9)Incomebeforeminorityinterests（少数股东权益前的利润）4,552.24,207.05,207.15,687.86,435.17,970.28,705.09,113.79,757.8Minorityinterests（少数股东权益收入）(143.7)(10.0)(10.5)(11.0)(11.6)(12.2)(12.8)(13.4)(14.1)Netincome（净利润）4,408.54,197.05,196.65,676.86,423.57,958.18,692.39,100.39,743.7Basicnumberofsharesoutstanding（已发行普通股数）12,552.012,552.0Earningspershare（每股收益）RMB0.35RMB0.33ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjCashflowstatement（现金流量表）31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10EBIT（利息和税收前的营业利润）9,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.313,804.014,293.2Tax（所得税）(1,432.0)(2,025.0)(2,211.9)(2,502.5)(3,099.5)(3,730.7)(3,905.9)Otherincomeandexpenses（其他收入和费用）0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Interestincome（利息收入）196.087.3224.7477.8855.21,388.41,819.3Interestexpense（利息费用）(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)+depreciation（折旧）19,605.424,430.526,771.327,805.729,190.129,128.529,218.1+amortisation（摊销）800.0600.0400.0400.00.00.00.0Inc(dec)inotherlong-termliabilities（其他长期负债增加（减少））302.676.068.452.452.551.456.0(Inc)decinOWC（营运资金减少（增加））23,069.29,044.69,703.66,984.67,740.19,243.09,491.3Cashflowfromoperatingactivities（经营活动现金流）49,577.340,026.043,668.943,809.946,319.047,711.848,799.3(Capitalexpenditure)（资本性支出）(48,672.4)(38,531.3)(33,002.7)(36,145.9)(28,819.1)(29,668.2)(38,117.0)(Inc)decincostmethodinvestments（成本法投资减少（增加））(130.7)0.00.00.00.00.00.0(Inc)decinotherlong-termassets（其他长期资产减少（增加））0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Cashflowfrominvestingactivities（投资活动现金流）(48,803.1)(38,531.3)(33,002.7)(36,145.9)(28,819.1)(29,668.2)(38,117.0)Inc(dec)inshort-termdebtotherthanrevolver（短期债务增加（减少））(7,975.0)(3,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.0Inc(dec)inlong-termbankloan（长期债务增加（减少））0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Inc(dec)insharecapital（股本金增加（减少））0.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Cashflowfromfinancingactivities（融资活动现金流）(7,975.0)(3,000.0)0.00.00.00.00.0Beginningcash（期初现金额）10,133.02,932.31,427.012,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.8Netcashflowbeforefinancinggap（净现金流）(7,200.7)(1,505.3)10,666.27,664.117,500.018,043.610,682.2Endingcashbeforefinancinggap（融资缺口前的期末现金额）10,133.02,932.31,427.012,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.865,983.1Dispositionofcash（现金分配）Requiredcash（所需现金）2,433.62,889.83,300.33,614.63,929.94,238.34,574.0ExcessCash（多余现金）498.70.08,792.916,142.733,327.351,062.561,409.0FinancingGap（融资缺口）0.01,462.90.00.00.00.00.0CashBalanceatendofyear（年底现金）2,932.32,889.812,093.219,757.337,257.255,300.865,983.1ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjRatios（比例）31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10Keynumbers（关键数字）Totalrevenues（总收入）40,574.067,636.081,120.696,328.2110,008.9120,486.2130,995.8141,277.3152,468.0EBITDA（折旧摊销利息税收前的营业利润）18,580.025,483.030,019.635,145.238,099.340,970.542,943.542,932.643,511.4EBIT（利息和税收前的营运利润）7,324.28,063.09,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.313,804.014,293.2Taxrate（所得税率）(27.8%)(33.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(28.0%)(30.0%)(30.0%)(30.0%)EBIAT（税后利息前的利润）5,288.75,401.46,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3Interestexpense（利息费用）(1,474.0)(1,936.0)(2,578.1)(2,302.2)(2,215.2)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)(2,172.8)FinancingGap（融资缺口）0.00.00.01,462.90.00.00.00.00.0Short-termdebt（短期债务）9,146.010,975.03,000.00.00.00.00.00.00.0Long-termbankloans（长期银行贷款）37,686.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.036,213.0Shareholders'equity（股东权益）66,248.068,360.073,556.679,233.485,656.993,615.0102,307.3111,407.6121,151.3Profitability（盈利性）Revenuegrowth（收入增长率）66.7%19.9%18.7%14.2%9.5%8.7%7.8%7.9%EBITDAmarginonrevenue（EBITDA/收入）45.8%37.7%37.0%36.5%34.6%34.0%32.8%30.4%28.5%EBITmarginonrevenue（EBIT/收入）18.1%11.9%11.9%10.5%9.9%10.6%10.5%9.8%9.4%Returnonequity（净资产收益率）6.7%6.1%7.1%7.2%7.5%8.5%8.5%8.2%8.0%Netoperationalassets（净营运资产）113,646.0115,548.0112,780.1116,930.8121,903.0129,873.3138,578.3147,692.0157,449.8Increaseinnetoperationalassets（净营运资产增加额）1,902.0(2,767.9)4,150.74,972.27,970.28,705.09,113.79,757.8IncreaseinEBIAT（EBIAT的增加额）112.71,520.8360.4585.71,322.5436.735.5342.5Returnonnewinvestment（新投资的回报率）5.9%(54.9%)8.7%11.8%16.6%5.0%0.4%3.5%ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjDCF31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10自由现金流EBIT（利息和税收前的营业利润）9,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.313,804.014,293.2Tax（所得税）(2,692.0)(2,832.1)(3,059.9)(3,574.1)(4,126.0)(4,141.2)(4,288.0)EBIAT6,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3+depreciation（折旧）19,605.424,430.526,771.327,805.729,190.129,128.529,218.1+amortisation（摊销）800.0600.0400.0400.00.00.00.0Inc(dec)inotherlong-termliabilities（其他长期负债增加（减少））302.676.068.452.452.551.456.0(Inc)decinOWC（营运资金减少（增加））23,069.29,044.69,703.66,984.67,740.19,243.09,491.3(Capitalexpenditure)（资本性支出）(48,672.4)(38,531.3)(33,002.7)(36,145.9)(28,819.1)(29,668.2)(38,117.0)无杠杆自由现金流2,027.12,902.411,808.88,287.517,791.118,417.510,653.7投入资本115,548.0112,780.1116,930.8121,903.0129,873.3138,578.3147,692.0157,449.8平均投入资本114,164.1114,855.5119,416.9125,888.1134,225.8143,135.2152,570.9息前税后收益6,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3投入资本收益率6.06%6.34%6.59%7.30%7.17%6.75%6.56%投入资本(不含现金)105,415.0109,847.8114,041.0109,809.8110,116.0101,321.192,391.291,466.8平均投入资本107,631.4111,944.4111,925.4109,962.9105,718.596,856.191,929.0息前税后收益6,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3投入资本收益率6.43%6.51%7.03%8.36%9.11%9.98%10.88%因为现金余额在快速增加所致！对策：分红或拿现金并购扩张或被人收购！如何找新利润增长点？折现现金流模型wacc12%长期增长率%4%终值138,497.8折现年份0.51.52.53.54.55.56.5折现因子0.940.840.750.670.600.540.48现值1,915.42,448.78,895.35,573.910,683.79,874.95,100.1现值总计44,492.0终值的现值66,301.9EV110,793.9CashBalance（现金余额）10,133.0Costmethodinvestments（成本法投资）0.0Otherlong-termassets（其他长期资产）6,174.0总资产127,100.9FinancingGap（融资缺口）0.0Short-termdebt（短期债务）10,975.0Long-termbankloans（长期银行贷款）36,213.0Minorityinterests（少数股东权益）0.0impliedequityvalue（内含总价值）79,912.9Basicnumberofsharesoutstanding（已发行普通股数）12,552.0股价（shareprice）6.37敏感性分析(1至2个变量)长期增长率6.42.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%5.00%5.50%WACC11.5%5.96.26.67.07.47.98.512.0%5.55.76.06.46.77.27.712.5%5.15.35.65.96.26.57.013.0%4.74.95.15.45.76.06.413.5%4.44.64.85.05.25.55.814.0%4.14.24.44.64.85.15.314.5%3.83.94.14.34.54.74.9ChinacomFinancialForecast（中通公司财务预测）AllfiguresinmillionsofRMB（所有数字以百万人民币计）HistHistProjProjProjProjProjProjProjDCF31-Dec-0231-Dec-0331-Dec-0431-Dec-0531-Dec-0631-Dec-0731-Dec-0831-Dec-0931-Dec-10自由现金流EBIT（利息和税收前的营业利润）9,614.210,114.710,928.112,764.813,753.313,804.014,293.2Tax（所得税）(2,692.0)(2,832.1)(3,059.9)(3,574.1)(4,126.0)(4,141.2)(4,288.0)EBIAT6,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3+depreciation（折旧）19,605.424,430.526,771.327,805.729,190.129,128.529,218.1+amortisation（摊销）800.0600.0400.0400.00.00.00.0Inc(dec)inotherlong-termliabilities（其他长期负债增加（减少））302.676.068.452.452.551.456.0(Inc)decinOWC（营运资金减少（增加））23,069.29,044.69,703.66,984.67,740.19,243.09,491.3(Capitalexpenditure)（资本性支出）(48,672.4)(38,531.3)(33,002.7)(36,145.9)(28,819.1)(29,668.2)(38,117.0)无杠杆自由现金流2,027.12,902.411,808.88,287.517,791.118,417.510,653.7投入资本115,548.0112,780.1116,930.8121,903.0129,873.3138,578.3147,692.0157,449.8平均投入资本114,164.1114,855.5119,416.9125,888.1134,225.8143,135.2152,570.9息前税后收益6,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3投入资本收益率6.06%6.34%6.59%7.30%7.17%6.75%6.56%投入资本(不含现金)105,415.0109,847.8114,041.0109,809.8110,116.0101,321.192,391.291,466.8平均投入资本107,631.4111,944.4111,925.4109,962.9105,718.596,856.191,929.0息前税后收益6,922.27,282.67,868.29,190.79,627.39,662.810,005.3投入资本收益率6.43%6.51%7.03%8.36%9.11%9.98%10.88%因为现金余额在快速增加所致！对策：分红或拿现金并购扩张或被人收购！如何找新利润增长点？折现现金流模型wacc12%退出倍数(Exitmultiples)8终值114,345.8折现年份0.51.52.53.54.55.56.5折现因子0.940.840.750.670.600.540.48现值1,915.42,448.78,895.35,573.910,683.79,874.95,100.1现值总计44,492.0终值的现值54,739.8EV99,231.8CashBalance（现金余额）10,133.0Costmethodinvestments（成本法投资）0.0Otherlong-termassets（其他长期资产）6,174.0总资产115,538.8FinancingGap（融资缺口）0.0Short-termdebt（短期债务）10,975.0Long-termbankloans（长期银行贷款）36,213.0Minorityinterests（少数股东权益）0.0impliedequityvalue（内含总价值）68,350.8Basicnumberofsharesoutstanding（已发行普通股数）12,552.0股价（shareprice）5.45敏感性分析(1至2个变量)退出倍数5.47.0X7.5X8.0X8.5X9.0X9.5X10.0XWACC11.5%5.15.45.65.96.26.56.812.0%4.95.25.45.76.06.36.512.5%4.75.05.35.55.86.16.313.0%4.64.85.15.35.65.86.113.5%4.44.64.95.15.45.65.914.0%4.24.54.75.05.25.55.714.5%4.14.34.64.85.05.35.5