[欧盟口译训练A1，英语].Euit-en-11041342

策马翻译 培训 焊锡培训资料ppt免费下载焊接培训教程 ppt 下载特设培训下载班长管理培训下载培训时间表下载 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 1 www.cemachina.com Euit EU interpretation training 欧盟口译训练 cemachina.com Copyright © 2010 CEMACHINA.COM, All Rights Reserved 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 2 www.cemachina.com 全球为何可以实现再平衡？ Waiting for the great rebalancing Pressures are building up for a rebalancing of the world economy. The private sector has long been trying to send a large net flow of capital from the world ’ s relatively sluggish rich countries to its dynamic emerging ones. But the governments of the latter have resisted, by intervening in currency markets and sending the capital back as official currency reserves. But forces now at work in the world economy seem likely to bring this recycling to a natural end. If so, that would be very helpful, though it would also create new challenges. 全球经济再平衡的压力日益增长。长期 以来，私人部门一直试图将大规模的净资金 流从世界上相对低迷的富国送往充满活力的 新兴国家，却遭到了后者政府的抵制，他们 通过干预外汇市场，把这些资金以官方外汇 储备的形式送了回去。但是目前在全球经济 中发挥作用的各种力量似乎有可能让这种再 循环自然终结。若是这样，那将对全球非常 有利，尽管也会带来新的挑战。 Mervyn King, governor of the Bank of 在法国央行(Banque de France)2 月份 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 3 www.cemachina.com England, has given an account of the role of the so-called global imbalances in February’s Financial Stability Review of the Banque de France. This “uphill” flow of capital from poor to rich countries, predominantly into supposedly safe assets, had important consequences: a reduction in the real rate of interest; a rise in asset prices, particularly of housing in several countries, not least the US; a reach for yield; a wave of financial innovation, to create higher yielding, but supposedly safe assets; a boom in residential construction; and ultimately a huge financial crisis. The follies of finance and failures of regulation bear the blame. But global developments – not just the so-called “savings glut, but the form that those flows took – helped create the conditions for the disaster. Indeed, a clear correlation exists between the rise in non-performing loans during the crisis and countries’ initial current account positions. 的《金融稳定评估》(Financial Stability Review)中，英国央行(BoE)行长默文•金 (Mervyn King)说明了所谓的全球失衡的作 用。这种从穷国向富国的资金“逆流”（主 要流入了据信是安全的资产）产生了重大后 果：实际利率下降；资产价格上涨，尤其是 几个国家（特别是美国）的房价；追逐收益； 一波以创造收益率更高、但据信是安全的资 产为目的的金融创新；住房建设的繁荣；以 及最终严重的金融危机。金融蠢行和监管失 败难辞其咎。但全球发展——不只是所谓的 “储蓄过剩”，而且还有那些资金流动的形 式——为灾难创造了条件。实际上，危机期 间不良贷款的增加与各国初始的经常账户状 况之间存在明显关联。 As Mr King also notes, the underlying determinant was a surge in savings in already surplus regions even greater than their rise in investment. In another recent paper, for Morgan Stanley, entitled The Great Rebalancing, Alan Taylor of the university of California at Davis and Manoj Pradhan, show the same thing, this time for emerging countries specifically (see chart). 金还指出，根本的决定因素在于，盈余 地区储蓄的飙升甚至超过了投资增长。加州 大学戴维斯分校(university of California at Davis)的艾伦•泰勒(Alan Taylor)和马诺 吉•普拉丹(Manoj Pradhan)最近为摩根士丹 利(Morgan Stanley)撰写的另一篇 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 为《宏 大再平衡》(The Great Rebalancing)的 报告 软件系统测试报告下载sgs报告如何下载关于路面塌陷情况报告535n,sgs报告怎么下载竣工报告下载 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 达了同样的观点——这次特别针对的是新 兴国家（见图表）。 Why then did the surge in savings take place? Mr King suggests three explanations: a shift towards export-promotion, which created the need for highly competitive real exchange 那么储蓄为何会大幅增长？金提出了 三种解释：向促进出口的转变，因而有必要 让实际汇率具有高度竞争力；在上世纪 90年 代的金融危机之后，各国决定积累外汇储备； 以及低水平的金融发展和不完善的社保网络 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 4 www.cemachina.com rates; a decision to accumulate foreign currency reserves, in the aftermath of the financial crises of the 1990s; and the combination of low levels of financial development with inadequate social safety nets, which encouraged higher savings. In China, one would also have to add the surge in corporate profits. The outcome, then, was partly the result of deliberate policy – particularly in the case of the form that the capital outflow took – and partly the result of spontaneous developments. 鼓励了人们增加储蓄。在中国，还要加上企 业利润的大幅增长。因此储蓄的大幅增长， 部分是审慎政策的结果——特别是就资本流 出的形式而言，部分是自然发展的结果。 Whatever the role of the uphill capital flows in causing the crisis, on which controversy reigns, it is agreed that full recovery demands a rebalancing. In the post-crisis world, hitherto buoyant household spending in the US and other affected countries, is likely to be weak, as deleveraging proceeds. Non-financial corporates have been running financial surpluses (an excess of retained earnings over investment) for a long time. This has now left governments with huge deficits. If the latter are to be reduced, while sustaining recovery, massive shifts in the external balance are needed. 无论资金逆流在极具争议的危机成因 中扮演了何种角色，但人们一致认同，完全 复苏需要再平衡。在后危机时代的世界里， 随着去杠杆化进程继续推进，美国和其它受 影响国家迄今旺盛的家庭支出可能会减少。 非金融企业长期以来一直保持着财务盈余 （留存收益多过投资）。这种情况目前让政 府出现了巨额赤字。如果要在维持复苏的同 时削减政府赤字，就需要外部平衡出现重大 转变。 Might this now happen? The Morgan Stanley paper argues that the answer is: yes, for four reasons. 这种情况目前可能发生吗？摩根士丹 利的报告认为 答案 八年级地理上册填图题岩土工程勘察试题省略号的作用及举例应急救援安全知识车间5s试题及答案 是可能，原因有如下四点： First, foreign currency reserves proved their worth during the crisis, which left emerging economies surprisingly unaffected. But the crisis also showed that existing reserves are more than large enough. The reduction in foreign currency reserves between September 2008 and February 2009 was $428bn, just under 6 per cent of the 首先，外汇储备在危机期间证明了自己 的价值——它们令新兴经济体出人意料地未 受影响。但危机也表明现有的储备过多。2008 年 9 月到 2009 年 2 月期间减少的 4280 亿美 元外汇储备，仅仅是全球总量不到 6%。事实 证明，整体而言，外汇储备持有国足以抵御 自上世纪 30年代以来最严重的危机而有余。 此外，那些将本国货币用作这一目的的国家 在超低利率时期持有外汇储备的成本也很 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 5 www.cemachina.com global total. In aggregate, reserve holders proved more than adequately insured even against the biggest crisis since the 1930s. Moreover, the cost of holding reserves in an era of ultra-low interest rates in the countries whose currencies are used for this purpose is also high. In China, the cost may now be 1.5 per cent of gross domestic product. Furthermore, export-led growth also looks much less attractive in an era of consumer retrenchment in the rich countries. 高。在中国，此项成本现在可能占到国内生 产总值(GDP)的 1.5%。况且，在富国减少消费 的时代，出口主导型增长的吸引力似乎也大 为降低。 Second, a pent-up demand exists for higher investment, in both advanced and emerging countries. China is a large exception, with its already extraordinary investment rate. But India’s investment rate may explode upwards, above all in infrastructure. The rising share of emerging countries in world output will also itself raise the global investment rate substantially. 其次，无论是发达国家还是新兴国家， 都有受到抑制的增加投资的需求。投资率已 经高得惊人的中国是一个明显的例外。但是 印度的投资率可能出现爆炸性增长，尤其是 在基础设施领域。新兴国家在全球产出中的 比重日益上升本身也将大幅提高全球的投资 率。 Third, consumption is likely to soar in emerging countries. This is now a specific objective of the Chinese government, which has realised the dangers of relying on demand from high-income countries. 第三，新兴国家的消费可能会大幅增 长。目前这是中国政府的明确目标——中国 政府已经意识到依赖高收入国家需求的风 险。 Finally, in the short run, private savings are likely to rise in advanced countries. But, in the longer run, ageing will reduce them, though not enough to halt rebalancing. 最后，发达国家的私人储蓄短期内可能 会出现增长；但是长期而言，老龄化将导致 私人储蓄下降，不过不足以中断再平衡。 The Morgan Stanley paper concludes that the impact of these changes will include higher real interest rates, global rebalancing and higher real exchange rates in emerging countries. The latter can occur through higher 摩根士丹利报告的结论是，这些变化的 影响将包括新兴国家实际利率上升、全球再 平衡和新兴国家实际汇率上升。后者可以通 过名义汇率或通胀上升来实现。许多新兴经 济体对通胀的容忍如今已达到极限。这表明 更快升值可能会在其政策组合中占据更大比 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 6 www.cemachina.com nominal exchange rates or higher inflation. Many emerging economies are now reaching their maximum tolerance of inflation. This suggests that faster appreciation is likely to be a bigger part of the policy mix, not least in China. For the Chinese government, high inflation is a disaster, far more so than any modest loss in external competitiveness. If China were to let the renminbi appreciate faster, others are also likely to follow. 重，尤其是在中国。对中国政府而言，高通 胀是一场灾难，远比外部竞争力温和下降更 具威胁。如果中国让人民币更快升值，其它 国家也可能效仿。 On balance, the shifts described look plausible. But they are likely to bring substantial pain. Higher real interest rates would increase the difficulties of the overindebted, be they private people or governments. Furthermore, emerging countries will resist the envisaged shift: global reserves rose by a further $2,192bn between February 2009 and December 2010. This rate of accumulation is surely destabilising. But it is ongoing. I will not forecast when it might end. I can say that nine trillion dollars is surely enough. 总体而言，上述转变看上去是可行的。 但它们可能带来巨大的痛苦。实际利率上升 将加重过度负债者（无论是个人还是政府） 的困境。此外，新兴国家将抵制设想中的转 变：2009年 2月到 2010年 12月间，全球外 汇储备又增加了 2.192 万亿美元。这种积累 速度肯定会破坏稳定，但它一直在持续。我 不会预测它何时会结束，但我可以说，9万亿 美元肯定足够了。 The debate over the future of the global monetary system is ongoing. But, quite pragmatically, the emerging countries modify it on their own. They decided to protect themselves against the vagaries of global finance by accumulating vast claims on the issuers of reserve currencies. That episode must surely come to an end, particularly now that inflation is becoming a greater fear. Moreover, structural forces are also likely to generate the needed “great rebalancing”. But the road to adjustment has only just begun. Watch 关于全球货币体系前景的辩论仍在持 续。但是新兴国家相当务实地自行做出了调 整。它们决定通过累积大量对储备货币发行 国的权利主张来抵御全球金融的波动。这种 情形肯定必须结束，尤其是在现在通胀正变 成一个更大的担忧之际。此外，结构性力量 也可能产生所需的“宏大再平衡”。但调整 之路才刚刚开始。小心：这有可能是一条崎 岖之路。 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 7 www.cemachina.com out: it is likely to be bumpy. / 全球为何可以实现再平衡？ Waiting for the great rebalancing ld�±ä‹bïrŸ¤flî−−o^{�N-ûztƒWõaíËAd