婴儿潮与中国经济的未来走势

婴儿潮与中国经济的未来走势 1962-1980年中国迎来了人口增长的高峰期～目前这批“婴儿潮一代”的年龄在26~44岁之间～正是人生的黄金时期～有43%的人口居住在城市。以20岁为起点～他们谋划事业的发展～努力追求更好的生活～组织自己的家庭～首次购房安身立命～继续臵业改善居住质量……每走一步都伴随着相应的投资和消费行为。近五年来国内房地产行业得以迅速发展～很大程度上得益于这部分人群对居住的真实性需求。随着年龄的增长～他们投资、消费能力和意愿的变化汇集到宏观层面～也会对房地产行业甚至是经济走势的增长产生深刻影响。 五十年代乃至二战前的美国是一个非常传统的国家。在美国对这一代人有一个形象的描述～叫“沉静的一代,Silence Generation (1925-1945),”,“沉静一代”之后迎来了“婴儿潮一代”,baby boomer,。据统计资料显示～第二次世界大战后～美国出现了一次人口生育高潮～1946，1964年间有7580万婴儿出生～美国将其称之为“婴儿潮”。随着婴儿潮人口的成长～美国的经济也步入了令人眩目的成长期。20世纪60、70年代～美国的婴儿潮人口带动了玩具、卡通、流行音乐的成长,20世纪70、80年代～步入结婚活跃期的婴儿潮人口带动了房地产、汽车业的成长,20世纪advantages, facing the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong peninsula, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, targeted investment promotion several times. Industry-led unit and various town streets are developing detailed promotion plans, the basis of what is specific to each industry, has formed a kind of scale, need to bring in the kind of projects each town street has the kind of resources, what location, focus on the development of the kind of industries. Four stroke technology and science. Determinants of technology is the County's economic development through scientific and technological innovation, improve product value-added and improve economic competitiveness, is the inevitable way to achieve leapfrog development. Talent is the city center city's first resource, is the primary industry development, and revitalization of the social protection. So, in terms of skills: to catch ... Competitive. Encouraging enterprises to actively undertake science and technology projects, strengthening research cooperation, using advanced technology to increase the added value of their products to ensure that introduction of transforming scientific and technological achievements during the year ... ... New research enterprises ... ... Home, creating innovative platforms ... ... Generic classifier. In: first, we must strengthen the cultivation of talent, efforts to increase vocational education and training and meet the basic demand of enterprise development. Then introduced a number of the county needed scarce education, health professionals, meet social development needs to invest more in machinery, pharmaceutical manufacturing research and development in higher education, such as the introduction of talent to meet the need. Third, we must rely on ... ... Post-doctoral workstation, ... ... Food research station platform, to the XX University to find experts 80、90年代～步入消费黄金期的婴儿潮人口又带动了个人电脑和互联网的成长。美国经济学家保罗〃皮尔泽指出～“婴儿潮出生的人虽然只占现美国人口的28,～但所创造的经济价值却占美国整体经济10兆美元的一半～婴儿潮人口创造了历史上最大的股市涨幅、房屋需求、国际航空、个人计算机、电脑网络和运动休闲工具的需求”。 18年～4.2亿新生儿 其实不仅仅是美国～世界许多国家都出现了与美国类似的婴儿潮～比如日本和印度。同样～中国也有类似的婴儿潮。数据表明,如图1所示,～1962，1980年中国处于人口增长高峰期～人口出生率一直保持在一个相当高的水平～尤其是1962,1970年。1962年人口出生率高达37.01‰～1965年高达37.88‰～1970年高达33.43‰。对比最近几年的人口出生率数据～2001年仅为13.38‰～2002年为12.86‰～2004年为12.29‰。 在这一人口出生率高企的年代,自"三年自然灾害"结束之1962年～到中国全面推行 计划 项目进度计划表范例计划下载计划下载计划下载课程教学计划下载 生育政策之1980年,～中国约有4亿多婴儿出生。据中国国家统计局的数据显示,如图2所示,～截止1962年底我国总人口是67295万人～截止1980年底我国总人口是98705万人。18年间我国增加人口31410万人。考虑到1962，1980年同期的死亡率以及1962年当年出生人口～ 那么18年实际出生人口应该约在4.2亿advantages, facing the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong peninsula, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, targeted investment promotion several times. Industry-led unit and various town streets are developing detailed promotion plans, the basis of what is specific to each industry, has formed a kind of scale, need to bring in the kind of projects each town street has the kind of resources, what location, focus on the development of the kind of industries. Four stroke technology and science. Determinants of technology is the County's economic development through scientific and technological innovation, improve product value-added and improve economic competitiveness, is the inevitable way to achieve leapfrog development. Talent is the city center city's first resource, is the primary industry development, and revitalization of the social protection. So, in terms of skills: to catch ... Competitive. Encouraging enterprises to actively undertake science and technology projects, strengthening research cooperation, using advanced technology to increase the added value of their products to ensure that introduction of transforming scientific and technological achievements during the year ... ... New research enterprises ... ... Home, creating innovative platforms ... ... Generic classifier. In: first, we must strengthen the cultivation of talent, efforts to increase vocational education and training and meet the basic demand of enterprise development. Then introduced a number of the county needed scarce education, health professionals, meet social development needs to invest more in machinery, pharmaceutical manufacturing research and development in higher education, such as the introduction of talent to meet the need. Third, we must rely on ... ... Post-doctoral workstation, ... ... Food research station platform, to the XX University to find experts 左右。这一时期所出生的庞大人口～笔者把他们称为“中国的婴儿潮一代”。 截至到2006年～1962，1980年所出生的婴儿潮人口的年龄在26，44岁之间～正是人生的黄金时期。根据国家统计局的公开数据,如图3所示,:在2005年末全国总人口130765万人中～0-14岁人口为26504万人～占总人口的20.30,,15-64岁人口为94197万人～占72.00,,65岁及以上人口为10055万人～占7.7,。其中1962，1980年出生的婴儿潮人口约占总人口的32,,约占15，64岁劳动力人口的45,,。从城乡分布看～2005年居住在城镇的人口56212万人～占总人口的43%,居住在乡村的人口74544万人～占总人口的57%。婴儿潮一代为中国经济的发展提供了强大的动力。 婴儿潮的时代“烙印” 中国的婴儿潮一代～由于其出生和成长在中国独特的历史时期～因而有着鲜明的时代特征。我们从图中可以看到1962，1980年出生的婴儿潮人口在各个主要历史时期所处的位臵,如图4所示,。 他们大部分出生在“文革”时期～在改革开放、经济转轨时期进入学校学习～在实行社会主义市场经济时期走上工作岗位。从中国婴儿潮所处的时代背景来看～可简要概括为:出生于六、七十年代的“文革时代”～成长于八、九十年代advantages, facing the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong peninsula, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, targeted investment promotion several times. Industry-led unit and various town streets are developing detailed promotion plans, the basis of what is specific to each industry, has formed a kind of scale, need to bring in the kind of projects each town street has the kind of resources, what location, focus on the development of the kind of industries. Four stroke technology and science. Determinants of technology is the County's economic development through scientific and technological innovation, improve product value-added and improve economic competitiveness, is the inevitable way to achieve leapfrog development. Talent is the city center city's first resource, is the primary industry development, and revitalization of the social protection. So, in terms of skills: to catch ... Competitive. Encouraging enterprises to actively undertake science and technology projects, strengthening research cooperation, using advanced technology to increase the added value of their products to ensure that introduction of transforming scientific and technological achievements during the year ... ... New research enterprises ... ... Home, creating innovative platforms ... ... Generic classifier. In: first, we must strengthen the cultivation of talent, efforts to increase vocational education and training and meet the basic demand of enterprise development. Then introduced a number of the county needed scarce education, health professionals, meet social development needs to invest more in machinery, pharmaceutical manufacturing research and development in higher education, such as the introduction of talent to meet the need. Third, we must rely on ... ... Post-doctoral workstation, ... ... Food research station platform, to the XX University to find experts 的“改革时代”。多年前～李光耀在其回忆录中谈到～影响中国追赶世界工业国家步伐有以下几个因素:一个是台湾问题,二是迅速的城市化问题,三是沿海与中西部省份之间生活水平的差异日益拉大的问题,四是年轻一代迥异于前辈们的价值取向和人生观～而这又是影响最深远的因素。 分析中国婴儿潮人口的成长过程～发现其生长环境以及价值取向～迥异于他们的前辈以及80年代后出生的独生子女一代。这批婴儿潮一代虽然大多出生在“文革”～但比前辈幸运的是～他们并未背负沉重的历史包袱～也没有耽误接受完整系统的教育。与独生子女一代不同的是～他们受到了两种体制、两种思潮的影响～在他们的价值观形成阶段～正处于新旧思潮碰撞、新旧体制变革的时期～现实环境和他们所接受的价值观之间产生了许多矛盾和冲突。这些造成了中国婴儿潮人口的价值取向、行为方式等带有矛盾和趋于多元化的特点。 “婴儿潮一代”～他们一方面有求知与变革的热情～但大多数人更愿意获得一份稳定的工作～呆在一个安全的位臵上,他们喜欢简单的人际关系～但往往表现出来的却是复杂的状态,他们喜欢储蓄、消费思想较保守、依赖经验～注重商品价值～但实际消费的时候却喜欢攀比和炫耀～从而成为消费新潮的主力。或许是一种巧合～这些特点正好契合了当今中国的社会巨变。 advantages, facing the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong peninsula, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, targeted investment promotion several times. Industry-led unit and various town streets are developing detailed promotion plans, the basis of what is specific to each industry, has formed a kind of scale, need to bring in the kind of projects each town street has the kind of resources, what location, focus on the development of the kind of industries. Four stroke technology and science. Determinants of technology is the County's economic development through scientific and technological innovation, improve product value-added and improve economic competitiveness, is the inevitable way to achieve leapfrog development. Talent is the city center city's first resource, is the primary industry development, and revitalization of the social protection. So, in terms of skills: to catch ... Competitive. Encouraging enterprises to actively undertake science and technology projects, strengthening research cooperation, using advanced technology to increase the added value of their products to ensure that introduction of transforming scientific and technological achievements during the year ... ... New research enterprises ... ... Home, creating innovative platforms ... ... Generic classifier. In: first, we must strengthen the cultivation of talent, efforts to increase vocational education and training and meet the basic demand of enterprise development. Then introduced a number of the county needed scarce education, health professionals, meet social development needs to invest more in machinery, pharmaceutical manufacturing research and development in higher education, such as the introduction of talent to meet the need. Third, we must rely on ... ... Post-doctoral workstation, ... ... Food research station platform, to the XX University to find experts 婴儿潮带旺中国经济 人口与经济发展有着极为密切的关系～人口结构与变化往往会对我们的经济生活产生重要影响。事实证明～当婴儿潮一代进入生产和消费的旺盛期～对国民经济的影响是巨大的。从上世纪90年代开始～中国婴儿潮一代陆续进入结婚期、生育期、储蓄期和消费期。由于我国的晚婚晚育政策～使得中国婴儿潮一代的结婚和生子年龄大多往后延长了几年。根据民政部的有关数据～1995，2005年10年间我国办理的婚姻登记超过1亿对。这一期间婴儿潮一代对房屋以及家居产品的需求激增～从而导致各相关产业的扩张～而婴儿潮一代又为这些产业的扩张提供了充足的劳动力。中国的房地产、汽车产业乃至整个国民经济在这10年都得到了空前的发展。据中国社科院的研究～从1978年到1998年～在中国持续20年的GDP高速增长中～劳动力的贡献率高达69,。 人口统计数据表明～中国婴儿潮一代在2006，2020年的未来15年间仍将是中国生产与消费的主力。2006年他们的年龄为26，44岁～2020年他们的年龄在40，58岁。婴儿潮一代的年龄阶段表明他们进入一轮大规模消费周期～这将推动中国经济进入新一轮繁荣直至劳动力峰值。 可以预见～随着婴儿潮一代全面进入生产和消费高峰期～消费市场必将获得繁荣。其间～房地产、汽车、升级消费品、旅游、金融、健康产业都将获得蓬勃发展。中国最大advantages, facing the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong peninsula, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, targeted investment promotion several times. Industry-led unit and various town streets are developing detailed promotion plans, the basis of what is specific to each industry, has formed a kind of scale, need to bring in the kind of projects each town street has the kind of resources, what location, focus on the development of the kind of industries. Four stroke technology and science. Determinants of technology is the County's economic development through scientific and technological innovation, improve product value-added and improve economic competitiveness, is the inevitable way to achieve leapfrog development. Talent is the city center city's first resource, is the primary industry development, and revitalization of the social protection. So, in terms of skills: to catch ... Competitive. Encouraging enterprises to actively undertake science and technology projects, strengthening research cooperation, using advanced technology to increase the added value of their products to ensure that introduction of transforming scientific and technological achievements during the year ... ... New research enterprises ... ... Home, creating innovative platforms ... ... Generic classifier. In: first, we must strengthen the cultivation of talent, efforts to increase vocational education and training and meet the basic demand of enterprise development. Then introduced a number of the county needed scarce education, health professionals, meet social development needs to invest more in machinery, pharmaceutical manufacturing research and development in higher education, such as the introduction of talent to meet the need. Third, we must rely on ... ... Post-doctoral workstation, ... ... Food research station platform, to the XX University to find experts 的房屋需求、股票涨幅、汽车需求、制造业和交通业发展、 运动休闲和健康需求以及一些新兴产业都将在这一代婴儿 潮手中产生。 advantages, facing the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Shandong peninsula, Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan area, targeted investment promotion several times. Industry-led unit and various town streets are developing detailed promotion plans, the basis of what is specific to each industry, has formed a kind of scale, need to bring in the kind of projects each town street has the kind of resources, what location, focus on the development of the kind of industries. Four stroke technology and science. Determinants of technology is the County's economic development through scientific and technological innovation, improve product value-added and improve economic competitiveness, is the inevitable way to achieve leapfrog development. Talent is the city center city's first resource, is the primary industry development, and revitalization of the social protection. So, in terms of skills: to catch ... Competitive. Encouraging enterprises to actively undertake science and technology projects, strengthening research cooperation, using advanced technology to increase the added value of their products to ensure that introduction of transforming scientific and technological achievements during the year ... ... New research enterprises ... ... Home, creating innovative platforms ... ... Generic classifier. In: first, we must strengthen the cultivation of talent, efforts to increase vocational education and training and meet the basic demand of enterprise development. Then introduced a number of the county needed scarce education, health professionals, meet social development needs to invest more in machinery, pharmaceutical manufacturing research and development in higher education, such as the introduction of talent to meet the need. Third, we must rely on ... ... Post-doctoral workstation, ... ... Food research station platform, to the XX University to find experts