曼昆经济学原理课件(下)-宏观部分，北大课件Chapter_34_货币和财政政策对总需求的影响

1 第三十四章 货币政策与财政政策对总需求 的影响 The Influence of Monetary and Fiscal Policy on Aggregate Demand 2 总需求 Aggregate Demand ‹除了货币与财政政策以外，有许多因素影响 总需求。 Many factors influence aggregate demand besides monetary and fiscal policy. ‹特别的，家庭与商业企业希望的支出决定了 对于物品与服务的总体需求。 In particular, desired spending by households and business firms determines the overall demand for goods and services. 3 总需求 Aggregate Demand ‹当希望的支出改变，总需求移动，导致短期 产出与就业的波动。 When desired spending changes, aggregate demand shifts, causing short-run fluctuations in output and employment. ‹货币与财政政策有时能用以弥补这些移动， 稳定经济。 Monetary and fiscal policy are sometimes used to offset those shifts and stabilize the economy. 4 货币政策如何影响总需求 How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand 总需求曲线向下倾斜有三个原因 The aggregate demand curve slopes downward for three reasons: ‹财富效应 The wealth effect ‹利率效应 The interest-rate effect ‹汇率效应 The exchange-rate effect 5 货币政策如何影响总需求 How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand 对美国经济来说，总需求曲线向下倾斜 的最重要原因是利率效应。 For the U.S. economy, the most important reason for the downward slope of the aggregate-demand curve is the interest- rate effect. 解释价格水平对总需求曲线的影响—— 利率效应，与解释货币政策对总需求曲 线的影响都用到了同一个理论。 6 流动性偏好理论 The Theory of Liquidity Preference ‹凯恩斯发展了流动性偏好理论，以解释决定经 济的利率的因素。 Keynes developed the theory of liquidity preference in order to explain what factors determine the economy’s interest rate. ‹按照这一理论，利率调整以平衡货币供求。 According to the theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money. 7 货币供给 Money Supply ‹货币供给由中央银行（美国的Fed） 通过以下途径进行控制： The money supply is controlled by the Fed through: ‹公开市场运作 Open-market operations ‹改变法定准备金 Changing the reserve requirements ‹改变贴现率 Changing the discount rate 8 货币供给 Money Supply ‹货币供给的数量不依赖于利率，因为它被 Fed固定住了。 Because it is fixed by the Fed, the quantity of money supplied does not depend on the interest rate. ‹固定的货币供给用一条垂直的供给曲线来 表示。 The fixed money supply is represented by a vertical supply curve. 9 货币需求 Money Demand ‹货币需求决定于若干因素。 Money demand is determined by several factors. ‹按照流动性偏好理论，一个最为重要的因素 是利率。 According to the theory of liquidity preference, one of the most important factors is the interest rate. 10 货币需求 Money Demand 人们选择持有货币而不是带来更高回报 率的其他资产，是因为货币能够用来购 买物品与服务。 People choose to hold money instead of other assets that offer higher rates of return because money can be used to buy goods and services. 11 货币需求 Money Demand ‹持有货币的机会成本，是从有利息收益的资 产中能够得到的利息。 The opportunity cost of holding money is the interest that could be earned on interest- earning assets. ‹利率上升，提高了持有货币的机会成本。 An increase in the interest rate raises the opportunity cost of holding money. ‹结果，货币需求数量下降了。 As a result, the quantity of money demanded is reduced. 12 货币市场的均衡 Equilibrium in the Money Market ‹按照流动性偏好理论： According to the theory of liquidity preference: ‹利率调整以平衡货币的供求。 The interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money. ‹在均衡利率下，货币供求平衡。 There is one interest rate, called the equilibrium interest rate, at which the quantity of money demanded equals the quantity of money supplied. 13 货币市场的均衡 Equilibrium in the Money Market 假定在经济中： Assume the following about the economy: ‹价格水平粘住在某个水平上。 The price level is stuck at some level. ‹对于任一给定的价格水平，利率调整以平衡货币 的供求。 For any given price level, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money. ‹产出水平对物品与服务的总需求作出反应。 The level of output responds to the aggregate demand for goods and services. 货币市场的均衡 Equilibrium in the Money Market... Quantity of Money Interest Rate 0 Money demand Quantity fixed by the Fed Money supply r2 M d2 r1 M d1 Equilibrium interest rate 15 总需求曲线向下倾斜 The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve ‹价格水平是货币需求量的一个决定因素。 The price level is one determinant of the quantity of money demanded. ‹更高的价格水平增加了给定利率下货币的需求量 A higher price level increases the quantity of money demanded for any given interest rate. ‹更高的货币需求导致更高的利率。 Higher money demand leads to a higher interest rate. ‹物品与服务的需求量下降。 The quantity of goods and services demanded falls. 16 总需求曲线向下倾斜 The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve 这一 分析 定性数据统计分析pdf销售业绩分析模板建筑结构震害分析销售进度分析表京东商城竞争战略分析 的最终结果是：价格水平 与物品及服务的需求量的负向关系 The end result of this analysis is a negative relationship between the price level and the quantity of goods and services demanded. 17 Aggregate demand Quantity of Output 0 Price Level (b) The Aggregate Demand Curve(a) The Money Market Quantity of Money Quantity fixed by the Fed 0 r1 Money supply Interest Rate Money demand at price level P1, MD1 Y1 P1 Money demand at price level P2, MD2 2. …增加了货币需求 increases the demand for money… 1. 价格水平的上升 An increase in the price level… P2 3. …提高了均衡利率 which increases the equilibrium interest rate… r2 4. …这又减少了物品与服务的需求量 which in turn reduces the quantity of goods and services demanded. Y2 货币市场与总需求曲线的斜率 The Money Market and the Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve... 18 货币供给的改变 Changes in the Money Supply ‹ Fed在改变货币政策时，能够移动总需求曲线。 The Fed can shift the aggregate demand curve when it changes monetary policy. ‹货币供给的增加将货币供给曲线向右移动。 An increase in the money supply shifts the money supply curve to the right. ‹如果货币需求曲线没有变动，利率就会下降。 Without a change in the money demand curve, the interest rate falls. ‹利率的下降增加了物品与服务的需求量。 Falling interest rates increase the quantity of goods and services demanded. Y2 AD2 3. …这增加了给定价 格水平下物品与服务 的需求量 which increases the quantity of goods and services demanded at a given price level. 1. 当Fed增 加货币供给 When the Fed increases the money supply… MS2 货币注入 A Monetary Injection... Y1 P Quantity of Output 0 Price Level Aggregate demand, AD1 Quantity of Money 0 Money supply, MS1 (a) The Money Market r1 Interest Rate (b) The Aggregate-Demand Curve r2 2. …均衡利率下降 the equilibrium interest rate falls… 20 货币供给的改变 Changes in the Money Supply ‹当Fed增加货币供给，它降低了利率，增加了给定价格 水平下物品与服务的需求量，将总需求曲线向右移动 When the Fed increases the money supply, it lowers the interest rate and increases the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the right. ‹当Fed紧缩货币供给，它提高了利率，减少了给定价格 水平下物品与服务的需求量，将总需求曲线向左移动 When the Fed contracts the money supply, it raises the interest rate and reduces the quantity of goods and services demanded at any given price level, shifting aggregate-demand to the left. 21 利率导向在Fed政策中的作用 The Role of Interest-Rate Targets in Fed Policy ‹货币政策既可以根据货币供给，也可以根据利率来描述 Monetary policy can be described either in terms of the money supply or in terms of the interest rate. ‹货币政策的改变既可以根据利率目标的改变，也可以根据 货币供给的改变来描述。 Changes in monetary policy can be viewed either in terms of a changing target for the interest rate or in terms of a change in the money supply. ‹联邦基金利率的目标影响货币市场均衡，进而影响总需求 A target for the federal funds rate affects the money market equilibrium, which influences aggregate demand. 22 中国的货币政策 China’s Monetary Policy 中国货币政策目标：目标值和实际值 资料来源：《中国金融年鉴》（1999－2003）转引自Ping XIE, “China’s Monetary Policy: 1998-2002”. 目标值 实际值 目标值 实际值 目标值 实际值 目标值 实际值 1998 17 11.9 16-18 15.3 900-1000* 910* 5 -2.6 1999 14 17.7 14-15 14.7 1355 1284.6 2 -1.4 2000 15-17 16 14-15 12.3 1100 1334.7 1 0.4 2001 13-14 12.65 15-16 14.4 1300 1291.3 1-2 0.7 2002 13 16.82 13 16.8 1300 1847.5 1-2 -0.8 *仅指国有商业银行 年 份 M2 （增长率，％） M1 国内信贷 通胀率 （增长率，％） （增加值，十亿人民币） （％） 23 中国的货币政策 China’s Monetary Policy 资料来源：《中国人民银行统计季报》（各期），部分转引自Ping XIE, “China’s Monetary Policy: 1998-2002”. 中国的官方利率和货币市场利率 货币市场利率 银行间同业拆借市场 日 期 法定准备金 对金融机构1年期贷款 1年期家庭储蓄存款 活期存款 短期（1年） 中长期（3年） 7日交易品种，年平均 1996.05.01 8.82 10.98 9.18 2.97 10.98 13.14 1996.08.23 8.28 10.62 7.47 1.98 10.08 10.98 1997.10.23 7.56 9.36 5.67 1.71 8.64 9.36 11.13 1998.03.25 5.22 7.92 5.22 1.71 7.92 9 1998.07.01 3.51 5.67 4.77 1.44 6.93 7.11 1998.12.07 3.24 5.13 3.78 1.44 6.39 6.66 1999.06.10 2.07 3.78 2.25 0.99 5.85 5.94 3.71 2002.02.21 1.89 3.24 1.98 0.72 5.31 5.49 2.3* *当月平均 官方利率 11.78 6.04 央行基准利率 商业银行储蓄利率 商业银行贷款利率 24 财政政策如何影响总需求 How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand ‹财政政策指的是政府对于政府购买或税收的整体水平的 选择。 Fiscal policy refers to the government’s choices regarding the overall level of government purchases or taxes. ‹财政政策影响长期的储蓄、投资和增长。 Fiscal policy influences saving, investment, and growth in the long run. ‹在短期内，财政政策主要影响总需求。 In the short run, fiscal policy primarily affects the aggregate demand. 25 政府购买的变化 Changes in Government Purchases ‹当政策制定者改变了货币供给或税收，对总需 求的影响是间接的——通过影响企业或家庭的 支出决策来达到。 When policymakers change the money supply or taxes, the effect on aggregate demand is indirect – through the spending decisions of firms or households. ‹当政府改变其自身对物品与服务的购买，它就 直接移动了总需求曲线。 When the government alters its own purchases of goods or services, it shifts the aggregate- demand curve directly. 26 政府购买的变化 Changes in Government Purchases ‹政府购买的改变有两个宏观效应 There are two macroeconomic effects from the change in government purchases: ‹乘数效应 The multiplier effect ‹挤出效应 The crowding-out effect 27 乘数效应 The Multiplier Effect ‹政府购买被认为对总需求有一个乘数效应。 Government purchases are said to have a multiplier effect on aggregate demand. ‹政府支出的每一美元能够增加的对物品与服务 的总需求，将大于一美元。 Each dollar spent by the government can raise the aggregate demand for goods and services by more than a dollar. 28 乘数效应 The Multiplier Effect... Aggregate demand, AD1 Quantity of Output 0 Price Level AD2 1. 政府增加200亿美元的支出一开始增 加了200亿美元的总需求 An increase in government purchases of $20 billion initially increases aggregate demand by $20 billion… $20 billion AD3 2. …但是乘数效应能够放大总需求曲线的移动 but the multiplier effect can amplify the shift in aggregate demand. 29 支出乘数的公式 A Formula for the Spending Multiplier ‹乘数公式为： The formula for the multiplier is: Multiplier = 1/(1 - MPC) ‹公式中的一个重要数字是边际消费倾向（MPC） An important number in this formula is the marginal propensity to consume (MPC). ‹它是家庭的额外收入中用于消费而不是储蓄的比例 It is the fraction of extra income that a household consumes rather than saves. 30 支出乘数的公式 A Formula for the Spending Multiplier ‹如果边际消费倾向为3/4，那么乘数将是： If the MPC is 3/4, then the multiplier will be: 乘数 Multiplier = 1/(1 - 3/4) = 4 ‹在这个例子里，200亿美元的政府支出增长产生 了800亿美元的物品与服务的需求增长。 In this case, a $20 billion increase in government spending generates $80 billion of increased demand for goods and services. 31 挤出效应 The Crowding-Out Effect ‹财政政策影响经济的程度可能不像乘数所预 计的那么强烈。 Fiscal policy may not affect the economy as strongly as predicted by the multiplier. ‹政府购买的增加导致了利率的上升。 An increase in government purchases causes the interest rate to rise. ‹更高的利率减少了投资支出。 A higher interest rate reduces investment spending. 32 挤出效应 The Crowding-Out Effect ‹由于财政扩张抬高利率所引起的需求减少，被称 为挤出效应。 This reduction in demand that results when a fiscal expansion raises the interest rate is called the crowding-out effect. ‹挤出效应倾向于削弱财政政策对于总需求的影响 The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand. AD3 4. …这进而部分抵消 了最初的总需求增加 which in turn partly offsets the initial increase in aggregate demand. 挤出效应 The Crowding-Out Effect... Aggregate demand, AD1 Quantity of Output0 Price Level (b) The Shift in Aggregate Demand(a) The Money Market Quantity of Money Quantity fixed by the Fed 0 r1 Money demand, MD1 Money supply Interest Rate 1. 政府购买的增加提高了总需求 When an increase in government purchases increases aggregate demand… AD2 $20 billion 3. …这又增加均衡利率 which increases the equilibrium interest rate… r2 MD2 2. …支出上升增加了 货币需求 the increase in spending increases money demand… 34 挤出效应 The Crowding-Out Effect 当政府购买增加了200亿，对物品与服务的 总需求增加可能大于或小于200亿美元，依 赖于乘数效应大还是挤出效应大。 When the government increases its purchases by $20 billion, the aggregate demand for goods and services could rise by more or less than $20 billion, depending on whether the multiplier effect or the crowding-out effect is larger. 35 税收的变动 Changes in Taxes ‹当政府减少个人收入征税，它增加了家庭拿回 家的收入。 When the government cuts personal income taxes, it increases households’ take-home pay. ‹家庭将这一额外收入的一部分储蓄起来。 Households save some of this additional income. ‹家庭也将其中的一部分花在消费物品上。 Households also spend some of it on consumer goods. ‹家庭支出的增加将总需求曲线向右移动。 Increased household spending shifts the aggregate- demand curve to the right. 36 税收的变动 Changes in Taxes ‹税收变动所引起的总需求移动的大小，受到乘 数与挤出效应的影响。 The size of the shift in aggregate demand resulting from a tax change is affected by the multiplier and crowding-out effects. ‹它也取决于家庭所察觉到的税收变动的持久性 It is also determined by the households’ perceptions about the permanency of the tax change. 37 运用政策来稳定经济 Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy 从1946年就业法案起，经济稳定就 成为了美国政府明确的目标。 Economic stabilization has been an explicit goal of U.S. policy since the Employment Act of 1946. 38 积极的稳定政策的理由 The Case for Active Stabilization Policy 就业法案有两个含义： The Employment Act has two implications: ‹政府应该避免成为经济波动的原因。 The government should avoid being the cause of economic fluctuations. ‹政府应该对私人经济的变化做出反应，以稳定总 需求。 The government should respond to changes in the private economy in order to stabilize aggregate demand. 39 反对积极的稳定政策的理由 The Case Against Active Stabilization Policy ‹一些经济学家认为，货币和财政政策导致了经 济不稳定。 Some economists argue that monetary and fiscal policy destabilizes the economy. ‹货币与财政政策对经济的影响有相当的时滞。 Monetary and fiscal policy affect the economy with a substantial lag. ‹他们建议，应该允许经济自己调节以对付短期 经济波动。 They suggest the economy should be left to deal with the short-run fluctuations on its own. 40 自动稳定器 Automatic Stabilizers ‹自动稳定器是指财政政策的某种变动，它在经济进入衰 退时能够刺激总需求，却无需政策制定者采取任何刻意 的行动。 Automatic stabilizers are changes in fiscal policy that stimulate aggregate demand when the economy goes into a recession without policymakers having to take any deliberate action. ‹自动稳定器包括了税收体系以及某些形式的政府支 出。 Automatic stabilizers include the tax system and some forms of government spending. 41 总结 初级经济法重点总结下载党员个人总结TXt高中句型全总结.doc高中句型全总结.doc理论力学知识点总结pdf Summary ‹凯恩斯提出了流动性偏好理论以解释利率的 决定因素。 Keynes proposed the theory of liquidity preference to explain determinants of the interest rate. ‹按照这一理论，利率调整以平衡货币供求。 According to this theory, the interest rate adjusts to balance the supply and demand for money. 42 总结 Summary ‹价格水平的上升提高了货币需求和利率。 An increase in the price level raises money demand and increases the interest rate. ‹更高的利率减少了投资，进而减少了物品与服务 的需求量。 A higher interest rate reduces investment and, thereby, the quantity of goods and services demanded. ‹向下倾斜的总需求曲线表示了价格水平与需求量 之间的这一负向关系。 The downward-sloping aggregate-demand curve expresses this negative relationship between the price-level and the quantity demanded. 43 总结 Summary ‹政策制定者能够运用货币政策影响总需求。 Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with monetary policy. ‹货币供给的增加最终会导致总需求曲线向右移动 An increase in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand curve shifting to the right. ‹货币供给的减少最终会导致总需求曲线向左移动 A decrease in the money supply will ultimately lead to the aggregate-demand curve shifting to the left. 44 总结 Summary ‹政策制定者能够运用财政政策影响总需求。 Policymakers can influence aggregate demand with fiscal policy. ‹政府购买的增加或减税将总需求曲线向右移动。 An increase in government purchases or a cut in taxes shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the right. ‹政府支出的减少或增税将总需求曲线向左移动。 A decrease in government purchases or an increase in taxes shifts the aggregate-demand curve to the left. 45 总结 Summary ‹当政府改变其支出或税收，所导致的总需求曲线移 动可能大于或小于这一财政政策的变动。 When the government alters spending or taxes, the resulting shift in aggregate demand can be larger or smaller than the fiscal change. ‹乘数效应倾向于放大财政政策对总需求的影响。 The multiplier effect tends to amplify the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand. ‹挤出效应倾向于减弱财政政策对总需求的影响。 The crowding-out effect tends to dampen the effects of fiscal policy on aggregate demand. 46 总结 Summary ‹ 因为货币与财政政策能够影响总需求，政府有时运用这些政策工 具，以达到稳定经济的目的。 Because monetary and fiscal policy can influence aggregate demand, the government sometimes uses these policy instruments in an attempt to stabilize the economy. ‹ 经济学家对政府是否应该积极地进行这样的努力意见不一。 Economists disagree about how active the government should be in this effort. ‹ 政策赞成者们认为如果政府不做出反应，其后果将是大家都不愿看 到的经济波动。 Policy advocates say that if the government does not respond the result will be undesirable fluctuations. ‹ 批评者认为，稳定的企图常常演变为破坏稳定。 Critics argue that attempts at stabilization often turn out destabilizing. 第三十四章 总需求�Aggregate Demand 总需求�Aggregate Demand 货币政策如何影响总需求�How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand 货币政策如何影响总需求�How Monetary Policy Influences Aggregate Demand 流动性偏好理论�The Theory of Liquidity Preference 货币供给�Money Supply 货币供给�Money Supply 货币需求�Money Demand 货币需求�Money Demand 货币需求�Money Demand 货币市场的均衡�Equilibrium in the Money Market 货币市场的均衡�Equilibrium in the Money Market 货币市场的均衡�Equilibrium in the Money Market... 总需求曲线向下倾斜�The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve 总需求曲线向下倾斜�The Downward Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve 货币市场与总需求曲线的斜率 The Money Market and the Slope of the Aggregate Demand Curve...� 货币供给的改变�Changes in the Money Supply 货币注入�A Monetary Injection... 货币供给的改变�Changes in the Money Supply 利率导向在Fed政策中的作用�The Role of Interest-Rate Targets in Fed Policy 中国的货币政策�China’s Monetary Policy 中国的货币政策�China’s Monetary Policy 财政政策如何影响总需求�How Fiscal Policy Influences Aggregate Demand 政府购买的变化�Changes in Government Purchases 政府购买的变化�Changes in Government Purchases 乘数效应�The Multiplier Effect 乘数效应 �The Multiplier Effect... 支出乘数的公式�A Formula for the Spending Multiplier 支出乘数的公式�A Formula for the Spending Multiplier 挤出效应�The Crowding-Out Effect 挤出效应�The Crowding-Out Effect 挤出效应�The Crowding-Out Effect... 挤出效应�The Crowding-Out Effect 税收的变动�Changes in Taxes 税收的变动�Changes in Taxes 运用政策来稳定经济�Using Policy to Stabilize the Economy 积极的稳定政策的理由�The Case for Active Stabilization Policy 反对积极的稳定政策的理由�The Case Against Active Stabilization Policy 自动稳定器�Automatic Stabilizers 总结�Summary 总结�Summary 总结�Summary 总结�Summary 总结�Summary 总结�Summary