福州某花园土地竞拍可行性分析报告

福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性分析报告项目编号：侠客行估字[2004]88号项目名称：福州市好景花园土地竞拍总造价：344975209.41元楼面造价：1638.88元/M2土地面积：41033M2建筑面积：210495M2建筑密度：30%容积率：3.6绿化率：35%建设单位：侠客行置业有限责任公司项目负责人：侠客行编制单位：侠客行置业有限责任公司编制负责人：侠客行编制审核人：侠客行编制人：侠客行编制日期：2004-7-3目录一、技术经济指标………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1二、可行性分析…………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………1三、福州市好景花园土地竞拍成本计算 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf ……………………………………………………………………………………………………2四、福州市好景花园土地竞拍面积和销售收入表……………………………………………………………………………………………3五、福州市好景花园土地竞拍经济分析表……………………………………………………………………………………………………4六、福州市好景花园土地竞拍敏感性分析表…………………………………………………………………………………………………5一、技术经济指标：1、用地面积：55832m22、容积率：3.63、可建面积：202195m2其中：住宅面积：184763m2商店面积沿街商店面积：6916m2*2层=13832m2小区内商店面积：1200m2*2层=2400m2另外可建车位：地下室面积9500m2（车库450个）4、绿化率：35%5、密度：30%以内（本 方案 气瓶 现场处置方案 .pdf气瓶 现场处置方案 .doc见习基地管理方案.doc关于群访事件的化解方案建筑工地扬尘治理专项方案下载 按30%计算）二、可行性分析本可行性测算方案，销售收入为100%，因此在本地块投标中应考虑该因素。建议按80%的销售率为底限，同时结合房地产业的经验，本项目的最理想的地价在150万元以内。附：福州市好景花园土地竞拍成本计算表福州市好景花园土地竞拍面积和销售收入表福州市好景花园土地竞拍经济分析表福州市好景花园土地竞拍敏感性分析表侠客行置业有限责任公司二00四年九月十二日福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告成本计算表编码 工程 路基工程安全技术交底工程项目施工成本控制工程量增项单年度零星工程技术标正投影法基本原理 项目（费用）名称计量单位工程量单价或费率造价或费用(元)楼面造价(元/M2)百分比(%)计算公式或说明1.一、征地、拆迁、前期费0066259890314.7819.21%1-1-1征地补偿费亩61.549100000061549000292.4017.85%按实际发生1-2-1 设计 领导形象设计圆作业设计ao工艺污水处理厂设计附属工程施工组织设计清扫机器人结构设计 费平方米21049518378891018.001.1%18元/平方米1-3-1建筑招投标费项110000100000.050.01%1-4-1建筑核放样费项150000500000.240.02%1-5-1施工许可证项120000200000.100.01%1-6-1消防审核费平方米21049548419804.000.25%2.二、建安造价00191948968911.8955.65%2-1-1土建及安装费用平方米210495650136821750650.0039.67%2-1-2地下室部份建安费用平方米0120000.000%2-2-1小区道路配套费平方米210495701473465070.004.28%2-3-1电梯费用部702500001750000083.145.08%2-4-1工程监理费项1150000015000007.130.44%2-5-1工程监督费元、%1559400000.223430681.630.1%2-6-1小区配水电费用等平方米21049510021049500100.006.11%5.三、其他税费0086766351.41412.2025.16%3-1-1营业税等元、%5344361508.545427072.75215.8113.17%3-2-1广告费项15000000500000023.751.45%3-3-1销售管理费用元、%53443615015344361.525.391.55%3-3-1建设管理费用元、%26276985825255397.1624.971.53%3-4-1利息费用元、%1040600000.81997952094.925.8%8-1-1不可预见费项15760000576000027.361.67%zzj总成本00344975209.411638.88100.01%0000.000%0000.000%福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告销售收入表序号楼层、单元或楼房名称计量单位单价建筑面积(M2)可售面积(M2)项目套数可售套数销售收入(元)销售模式备注1住宅元/㎡2050184763000378764150按建筑面积2沿街店面一层元/㎡13000691600089908000按建筑面积3沿街店面二层元/㎡4000691600027664000按建筑面积4小区店面一层元/㎡10000120000012000000按建筑面积5小区店面二层元/㎡300012000003600000按建筑面积6车库元/套5000095000450022500000按项目套数合计00000534436150福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告投资计划表序号项目名称成本（元）合计（元）第1年第2年第3年1.一、征地、拆迁、前期费66259890662598902208663022086630220866302.二、建安造价191948968191948967.9963982989.3363982989.3363982989.335.三、其他税费86766351.4186766351.4228922117.1428922117.1428922117.14合计344975209.41344975209.41114991736.47114991736.47114991736.47福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告资金筹措计划表序号项目名称成本（元）合计（元）第1年第2年第3年1.投资计划344975209.41344975209.41114991736.47114991736.47114991736.472.资金筹措计划000002.1自有资金000002.2借款000002.21向银行贷款00000福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告多方案经济分析表序号方案名称地价(万元/亩)土地费(万元)项目成本(万元)土地费比例(%)销售收入(万元)利润(万元)投资利润率(%)备注1方案11006154.934497.5217.84%53443.6218946.154.92%2方案21207385.8835728.520.67%53443.6217715.1249.58%3方案31408616.8636959.4823.31%53443.6216484.1444.60%4方案41509232.3537574.9724.57%53443.6215868.6542.23%5方案518011078.8239421.4428.10%53443.6214022.1835.57%6方案620012309.840652.4230.28%53443.6212791.231.46%7方案722013540.7841883.432.33%53443.6211560.2227.60%8方案824014771.7643114.3834.26%53443.6210329.2423.96%9方案926016002.7444345.3636.09%53443.629098.2620.52%10方案1028017233.7245576.3437.81%53443.627867.2817.26%11方案1130018464.746807.3239.45%53443.626636.314.18%12方案1232019695.6848038.341.00%53443.625405.3211.25%13方案1334020926.6649269.2842.47%53443.624174.348.47%14方案1436022157.6450500.2643.88%53443.622943.365.83%15方案1538023388.6251731.2445.21%53443.621712.383.31%16方案1640024619.652962.2246.49%53443.62481.40.91%17方案1742025850.5854193.247.70%53443.62-749.58-1.38%福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告敏感性分析表方案名称项目名称基本数变化1变化2变化3变化4变化5变化6变化7变化8变化9变化10方案100000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)100100100100100100100100100100100土地费(万元)6154.96154.96154.96154.96154.96154.96154.96154.96154.96154.96154.9项目成本(万元)34497.5236222.437947.2739672.1541397.0236222.437947.2739672.1541397.0239672.1541397.02销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)18946.114549.0410151.995754.931357.8811876.8612824.178427.114030.068427.114030.06投资利润率(%)54.9240.1726.7514.513.2832.7933.7921.249.7421.249.74销售利润率(%)35.4528.6621.1112.673.1824.6925.2617.528.8717.528.87方案200000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)120120120120120120120120120120120土地费(万元)7385.887385.887385.887385.887385.887385.887385.887385.887385.887385.887385.88项目成本(万元)35728.537514.9339301.3541087.7742874.237514.9339301.3541087.7742874.241087.7742874.2销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)17715.1213256.518797.914339.31-119.310584.3311470.097011.492552.887011.492552.88投资利润率(%)49.5835.3422.3910.56-0.2828.2129.1817.065.9517.065.95销售利润率(%)33.1526.1118.299.55-0.2822.0122.5914.585.6214.585.62方案300000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)140140140140140140140140140140140土地费(万元)8616.868616.868616.868616.868616.868616.868616.868616.868616.868616.868616.86项目成本(万元)36959.4838807.4540655.4342503.444351.3838807.4540655.4342503.444351.3842503.444351.38销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)16484.1411963.997443.832923.68-1596.489291.8110116.015595.861075.75595.861075.7投资利润率(%)44.630.8318.316.88-3.623.9424.8813.172.4313.172.43销售利润率(%)30.8423.5615.486.44-3.7319.3219.9211.632.3711.632.37方案400000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)150150150150150150150150150150150土地费(万元)9232.359232.359232.359232.359232.359232.359232.359232.359232.359232.359232.35项目成本(万元)37574.9739453.7241332.4743211.2245089.9639453.7241332.4743211.2245089.9643211.2245089.96销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)15868.6511317.726766.792215.86-2335.068645.549438.974888.04337.124888.04337.12投资利润率(%)42.2328.6916.375.13-5.1821.9122.8411.310.7511.310.75销售利润率(%)29.6922.2914.074.88-5.4617.9718.5910.160.7410.160.74方案500000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)180180180180180180180180180180180土地费(万元)11078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.8211078.82项目成本(万元)39421.4441392.5143363.5845334.6647305.7341392.5143363.5845334.6647305.7345334.6647305.73销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)14022.189378.934735.6892.42-4550.836706.757407.862764.6-1878.652764.6-1878.65投资利润率(%)35.5722.6610.920.2-9.6216.217.086.1-3.976.1-3.97销售利润率(%)26.2418.479.850.2-10.6413.9414.595.75-4.145.75-4.14方案600000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)200200200200200200200200200200200土地费(万元)12309.812309.812309.812309.812309.812309.812309.812309.812309.812309.812309.8项目成本(万元)40652.4242685.0444717.6646750.2848782.942685.0444717.6646750.2848782.946750.2848782.9销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)12791.28086.43381.6-1323.2-60285414.226053.781348.98-3355.821348.98-3355.82投资利润率(%)31.4618.947.56-2.83-12.3612.6813.542.89-6.882.89-6.88销售利润率(%)23.9315.937.03-2.91-14.111.2611.922.8-7.392.8-7.39方案700000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)220220220220220220220220220220220土地费(万元)13540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.7813540.78项目成本(万元)41883.443977.5746071.7448165.9150260.0843977.5746071.7448165.9150260.0848165.9150260.08销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)11560.226793.872027.52-2738.83-7505.184121.694699.7-66.65-4833-66.65-4833投资利润率(%)27.615.454.4-5.69-14.939.3710.2-0.14-9.62-0.14-9.62销售利润率(%)21.6313.384.22-6.03-17.558.579.26-0.14-10.64-0.14-10.64方案800000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)240240240240240240240240240240240土地费(万元)14771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.7614771.76项目成本(万元)43114.3845270.147425.8249581.5451737.2645270.147425.8249581.5451737.2649581.5451737.26销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)10329.245501.34673.44-4154.46-8982.362829.163345.62-1482.28-6310.18-1482.28-6310.18投资利润率(%)23.9612.151.42-8.38-17.366.257.05-2.99-12.2-2.99-12.2销售利润率(%)19.3310.841.4-9.15-21.015.886.59-3.08-13.89-3.08-13.89方案900000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)260260260260260260260260260260260土地费(万元)16002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.7416002.74项目成本(万元)44345.3646562.6348779.950997.1653214.4346562.6348779.950997.1653214.4350997.1653214.43销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)9098.264208.81-680.64-5570.08-10459.531536.631991.54-2897.9-7787.35-2897.9-7787.35投资利润率(%)20.529.04-1.4-10.92-19.663.34.08-5.68-14.63-5.68-14.63销售利润率(%)17.028.29-1.42-12.26-24.463.193.92-6.02-17.14-6.02-17.14方案1000000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)280280280280280280280280280280280土地费(万元)17233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.7217233.72项目成本(万元)45576.3447855.1650133.9752412.7954691.6147855.1650133.9752412.7954691.6152412.7954691.61销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)7867.282916.28-2034.71-6985.71-11936.71244.1637.47-4313.53-9264.53-4313.53-9264.53投资利润率(%)17.266.09-4.06-13.33-21.830.511.27-8.23-16.94-8.23-16.94销售利润率(%)14.725.74-4.23-15.38-27.920.511.26-8.97-20.39-8.97-20.39方案1100000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)300300300300300300300300300300300土地费(万元)18464.718464.718464.718464.718464.718464.718464.718464.718464.718464.718464.7项目成本(万元)46807.3249147.6951488.0553828.4256168.7849147.6951488.0553828.4256168.7853828.4256168.78销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)6636.31623.75-3388.79-8401.34-13413.88-1048.43-716.61-5729.16-10741.7-5729.16-10741.7投资利润率(%)14.183.3-6.58-15.61-23.88-2.13-1.39-10.64-19.12-10.64-19.12销售利润率(%)12.423.2-7.05-18.49-31.37-2.18-1.41-11.91-23.65-11.91-23.65方案1200000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)320320320320320320320320320320320土地费(万元)19695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.6819695.68项目成本(万元)48038.350440.2252842.1355244.0457645.9650440.2252842.1355244.0457645.9655244.0457645.96销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)5405.32331.22-4742.87-9816.96-14891.06-2340.96-2070.69-7144.78-12218.88-7144.78-12218.88投资利润率(%)11.250.66-8.98-17.77-25.83-4.64-3.92-12.93-21.2-12.93-21.2销售利润率(%)10.110.65-9.86-21.61-34.83-4.87-4.08-14.85-26.9-14.85-26.9方案1300000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)340340340340340340340340340340340土地费(万元)20926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.6620926.66项目成本(万元)49269.2851732.7454196.2156659.6759123.1451732.7454196.2156659.6759123.1456659.6759123.14销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)4174.34-961.3-6096.95-11232.59-16368.24-3633.48-3424.77-8560.41-13696.06-8560.41-13696.06投资利润率(%)8.47-1.86-11.25-19.82-27.68-7.02-6.32-15.11-23.17-15.11-23.17销售利润率(%)7.81-1.89-12.68-24.73-38.28-7.55-6.75-17.8-30.15-17.8-30.15方案1400000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)360360360360360360360360360360360土地费(万元)22157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.6422157.64项目成本(万元)50500.2653025.2755550.2958075.360600.3153025.2755550.2958075.360600.3158075.360600.31销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)2943.36-2253.83-7451.03-12648.22-17845.41-4926.01-4778.85-9976.04-15173.23-9976.04-15173.23投资利润率(%)5.83-4.25-13.41-21.78-29.45-9.29-8.6-17.18-25.04-17.18-25.04销售利润率(%)5.51-4.44-15.49-27.84-41.74-10.24-9.41-20.74-33.4-20.74-33.4方案1500000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)380380380380380380380380380380380土地费(万元)23388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.6223388.62项目成本(万元)51731.2454317.856904.3659490.9362077.4954317.856904.3659490.9362077.4959490.9362077.49销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)1712.38-3546.36-8805.1-14063.85-19322.59-6218.54-6132.92-11391.67-16650.41-11391.67-16650.41投资利润率(%)3.31-6.53-15.47-23.64-31.13-11.45-10.78-19.15-26.82-19.15-26.82销售利润率(%)3.2-6.98-18.31-30.96-45.19-12.93-12.08-23.68-36.65-23.68-36.65方案1600000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)400400400400400400400400400400400土地费(万元)24619.624619.624619.624619.624619.624619.624619.624619.624619.624619.624619.6项目成本(万元)52962.2255610.3358258.4460906.5563554.6655610.3358258.4460906.5563554.6660906.5563554.66销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)481.4-4838.89-10159.18-15479.47-20799.76-7511.07-7487-12807.29-18127.58-12807.29-18127.58投资利润率(%)0.91-8.7-17.44-25.42-32.73-13.51-12.85-21.03-28.52-21.03-28.52销售利润率(%)0.9-9.53-21.12-34.08-48.65-15.62-14.75-26.63-39.9-26.63-39.9方案1700000000000投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15地价(万元/亩)420420420420420420420420420420420土地费(万元)25850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.5825850.58项目成本(万元)54193.256902.8659612.5262322.1865031.8456902.8659612.5262322.1865031.8462322.1865031.84销售收入(万元)53443.6250771.4448099.2645427.0842754.948099.2650771.4448099.2645427.0848099.2645427.08利润(万元)-749.58-6131.42-11513.26-16895.1-22276.94-8803.6-8841.08-14222.92-19604.76-14222.92-19604.76投资利润率(%)-1.38-10.78-19.31-27.11-34.26-15.47-14.83-22.82-30.15-22.82-30.15销售利润率(%)-1.4-12.08-23.94-37.19-52.1-18.3-17.41-29.57-43.16-29.57-43.16福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告概率分布情况表变化因素项目名称基本数变化1变化2变化3变化4变化5变化6变化7变化8变化9变化10投资投资变化比例(%)0510152051015201520投资变化概率10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1销售销售收入变化比例(%)0-5-10-15-20-10-5-10-15-10-15销售收入变化概率10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.10.1福州市好景花园土地竞拍可行性报告概率分析情况表方案名称地价（万元/亩）土地费（万元）土地楼面造价（元/M2）项目成本期望值（万元）项目成本楼面造价期望值（元/M2）土地费占比例期望值（%）销售收入期望值（万元）利润期望值（万元）投资利润率期望值（%）销售利润率期望值（%）盈利概率亏本概率备注方案11006154.9292.439154.691860.1215.72%47297.68142.9120.8%17.22%10方案21207385.88350.8840551.851926.518.21%47297.66745.7516.63%14.26%0.970.03方案31408616.86409.3641949.011992.8720.54%47297.65348.5912.75%11.31%0.970.03方案41509232.35438.642647.592026.0621.65%47297.64650.0110.9%9.83%0.940.06方案518011078.82526.3244743.332125.6224.76%47297.62554.275.71%5.4%0.830.17方案620012309.8584.846140.5219226.68%47297.61157.12.51%2.45%0.620.38方案722013540.78643.2847537.662258.3728.48%47297.6-240.06-0.5%-0.51%0.420.58方案824014771.76701.7648934.822324.7530.19%47297.6-1637.22-3.35%-3.46%0.360.64方案926016002.74760.2450331.982391.1231.79%47297.6-3034.38-6.03%-6.42%0.160.84方案1028017233.72818.7251729.152457.533.32%47297.6-4431.55-8.57%-9.37%0.160.84方案1130018464.7877.253126.312523.8834.76%47297.6-5828.71-10.97%-12.32%0.040.96方案1232019695.68935.6854523.472590.2536.12%47297.6-7225.87-13.25%-15.28%0.040.96方案1334020926.66994.1655920.632656.6337.42%47297.6-8623.03-15.42%-18.23%01方案1436022157.641052.6457317.8272338.66%47297.6-10020.2-17.48%-21.19%01方案1538023388.621111.1258714.962789.3839.83%47297.6-11417.36-19.45%-24.14%01方案1640024619.61169.660112.122855.7540.96%47297.6-12814.52-21.32%-27.09%01方案1742025850.581228.0961509.282922.1342.03%47297.6-14211.68-23.1%-30.05%01