阿里巴巴上市，雅虎成最大输家

阿里巴巴上市，雅虎成最大输家 　　上市当天涨幅惊人。但稍微算一下就会发现，阿里巴巴及其大股东用近100亿美元的成本筹集了250亿美元资金，相当于产生了40%的“销售费用”。最大的赢家是对冲基金和承销商，而最大的输家是雅虎和阿里巴巴公司自己。 　　It’s official. Alibaba’s IPO pop was stupendous, Wall Street’s favorite clients get billions of dollars in found money, investment banks will pocket billions from those grateful clients for orchestrating the windfall, and the owners who let it happen should be thoroughly ashamed. 　　大局已定。阿里巴巴(Alibaba)上市当天涨幅惊人。华尔街青睐的客户发了一笔数十亿美元的横财，为他们创造赚钱机会的投行也将从这些心存感激的客户那里得到数以十亿计的回馈，而让这一切成为现实的阿里巴巴所有者应当倍感惭愧。 　　I almost forgot to : Now that we know—at least for now—the sheik’s ransom you’ll have to pay to own Alibaba stock, you should marvel at the show. But avoid the stock. 　　差一点忘了说，现在我们知道了——至少在眼下——要得到阿里巴巴的股票得花多少钱。这场“秀”应该让大家感到惊艳，但对这只股票大家应该敬而远之。 　　On Friday, September 19, Alibaba shares closed its first day of trading at $93.89. The stock shot into the $90s right at the opening bell and pretty much stayed there all day, registering a gain by the 4 p.m. close of $25.89. That’s a pop of 38%, from the offering price of $68, the insider price that underwriters charged institutional investors and a small group of individuals just before Alibaba started trading. At $93.89, the Chinese e-commerce colossus now boasts a world-class market cap of $231.4 billion. Its valuation exceeds those of such market veterans as Oracle and Intel (both $177 billion), and Pfizer ($193 billion). 　　周五，也就是9月19日，阿里巴巴上市首日收于93.89美元。刚一开盘这只股票就突破了90美元，而且几乎一整天都保持在90美元以上;下午4点收盘时，阿里巴巴上涨了25.89美元，和68美元的发行价相比蹿升了38%。这个发行价在阿里巴巴就要上市前才敲定，是机构投资者和少数个人从承销商那里拿到的“内部价”。按93.89美元的股价计算，这家中国电子商务巨擘的市值为2314亿美元，达到国际领先水平，超过了很多上市已久的公司，比如市值均为1770亿美元的甲骨文(Oracle)和英特尔(Intel)，以及市值1930亿美元的辉瑞(Pfizer)。 　　This heavily hyped debut is a travesty in two respects. First, the euphoria over the gigantic opening-day jump masks what should be obvious: that every dollar someone earned in quick gains came from someone else’s pocket—and no one is talking about the losers, not even the losers themselves. Second, the valuation sets a benchmark for how much Alibaba has to earn in order to enrich investors. The Chinese e-commerce giant’s fabulous market cap makes the necessary climb quite steep; too steep for investors who missed the insider share price—the one time Alibaba really was a steal. 　　这次外界大肆炒作的首发有些讽刺，原因有两方面。首先，上市当天股价飙升带来的欣喜之情掩盖了一个明显的事实，那就是一些人发的横财都来自另一些人的口袋。然而，没有人提到那些输家，就连输家自己也是如此。其次，这样的估值水平给阿里巴巴设定了一个盈利 标准 excel标准偏差excel标准偏差函数exl标准差函数国标检验抽样标准表免费下载红头文件格式标准下载 ，只有达标投资者才能受益。巨大的市值让这只大型电商股必要的攀升显得相当夸张——对于错失“内部价”的投资者来说更是过于夸张，那时候的阿里巴巴绝对是桩便宜的好买卖。 　　In the IPO, Alibaba, the company itself, and several of its owners, sold 320 million shares at $68, and the investment bankers reserve the right to buy 48 million more shares at the offering price. So let’s start with the total shares already sold, and likely to be sold, at the $68 price. That’s 368 million shares. The offering will then raise $25 billion. Remember, if Alibaba and its shareholders had gotten full value for their shares at the closing price of $93.89, they would have collected not $25 billion, but $34.6 billion. So they left $9.6 billion “on the table.” They also paid around $350 million in fees to their six underwriters. So it cost Alibaba and big shareholders almost $10 billion to raise $25 billion; that’s the equivalent to a sales charge of 40%. Isn’t Wall Street math fabulous? 　　通过这次IPO，阿里巴巴本身和它的那些所有者以每股68美元的价格发行了3.20亿股，投行方面有权按发行价再认购4800万股。那么，让我们从已经发行和可能发行的股票数量开始，它们的总量为3.68亿股，按每股68美元的水平计算，融资总额为250亿美元。但要知道，如果按93.89美元的收盘价发行，从而让阿里巴巴及其股东获得这些股票的全部价值，他们筹集到的就不是250亿美元，而是346亿。或者说，他们把96亿美元“当做了小费”，同时还向六家承销商支付了约3.50亿美元手续费。也就是说，阿里巴巴及其大股东用近100亿美元的成本筹集了250亿美元资金，相当于产生了40%的“销售费用”。华尔街的数学难道不美妙吗? 　　So who are the winners and losers? As a group, the biggest winners are the hedge funds and other institutions that tallied $9.6 billion in paper and cash gains in a single day. As architects of the offering, the six underwriters are golden as well. They should recoup 30% of the $9.6 billion windfall handed to their clients in high commissions over the coming weeks and months. That’s $2.9 billion, in addition to $350 million in fees. Let’s not forget the managers, who granted themselves an option to buy 22 million shares at the offering price. Their one-day gains: $570 million. 　　那么，赢家和输家都是谁呢?作为一个整体，最大的赢家是对冲基金等机构，他们在一天之内实现了96亿美元的账面和现金收益。作为IPO的 策划 活动策划ppt下载游戏策划下载民宿策划下载游戏策划shu下载英文歌曲大赛策划免费下载 者，六家承销商也大赚了一笔。客户得到这96亿美元横财后，将用几周乃至几个月的时间把其中的30%以高额佣金的形式回馈承销商。也就是说，除了3.50亿美元的手续费，承销商还将获利29亿美元。别忘了阿里巴巴高层，他们给了自己按发行价认购2200万股的权力，这让他们也能在一天之内赚到5.70亿美元。 　　Heading the list of losers are Yahoo, a major Alibaba shareholder, and Alibaba itself. Yahoo is selling around 140 million shares. The underpricing means it will receive $9.2 billion, instead of the $13.1 billion those shares would be worth, just one day later. That’s $3.8 billion in foregone funds. As for Alibaba, it’s raising around $8.3 billion, funds that will swell its coffers. At a $93.89 share price, Alibaba would have amassed over $11.5 billion. Left on the table: $3.2 billion, more than 1% of its market cap. 　　在输家排行榜上，排在前两位的是阿里巴巴大股东雅虎(Yahoo)和阿里巴巴公司自己。雅虎拿出了大约1.40亿股。由于定价偏低，它只得到了92亿美元，而短短一天后这些股票的价值就达到了131亿，或者说雅虎错失了38亿美元的收益。对阿里巴巴本身来说，公司以自有股份筹集来的资金约为83亿美元，可谓赚的盆满钵满。但如果按每股93.89美元的价格计算，融资额将超过115亿美元。这就意味着阿里巴巴给了别人32亿美元的“小费”，超过自身市值的1%。 　　Now, let’s look at Alibaba as an investment for the great unwashed who didn’t get the insider price; in other words, you and me. We’d want a return on our Alibaba shares of at least 10% a year over the next 10 years. That’s quite a conservative figure considering that Alibaba is a speculative investment. Let’s also assume that Alibaba will issue 30% more shares to fund its expansion. We’re probably choosing a low figure here given its recent acquisitions binge: Alibaba spent $7 billion buying and investing in a sprawling portfolio of companies just in the quarter that ended on March 31. 　　现在，让我们从投资角度来看下阿里巴巴，个人投资者是众多没有拿到“内部价”的草根阶层——换句话说，就是你和我。我们希望今后十年阿里巴巴每年能带来至少10%的回报。鉴于这只股票的投机属性，这个数字相当保守。让我同时假设，为了扩张阿里巴巴将增发30%。这个数字可能也偏低，因为阿里巴巴最近一直在大肆收购——仅今年1-3月份它就斥资70亿美元收购和投资了一大批公司。 　　It’s unlikely that Alibaba will pay a dividend anytime soon. So all of our gains will need to come in the form of stock appreciation. Using those metrics, Alibaba will need to grow its market cap from $231 billion to $777 billion by 2024. Keep in mind that the market currently awards only one company on the planet a valuation over $600 billion, and that’s Apple. 　　阿里巴巴可能不会很快分红。因此我们的收益只能靠股价上涨来实现。按照上述假设，到2024年阿里巴巴的市值需从2310亿美元提高到7770亿。要知道，现在地球上市值超过6000亿美元的企业只有一家，那就是苹果公司(Apple)。 　　To get us there, how much will Alibaba need to earn? In the four quarters ended June 30, Alibaba posted net earnings of $4.9 billion. If its P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of 47 falls to 20 over those 10 years—and 20 is still a premium P/E—it will need to show $39 billion in net earnings. That means earnings must grow by well over 20% a year. Other than government-owned Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, only one superstar makes that kind of money: once again, it’s Apple. To put this challenge in perspective, consider that Microsoft earned $22 billion in 2013. 　　要达到这样的市值，阿里巴巴需要实现多少盈利呢?在截至今年6月30日的第四个财务季度，阿里巴巴的净利润为49亿美元。如果今后十年它的市盈率从47倍降到20倍(20倍市盈率仍有溢价)，该公司就得实现390亿美元的净利润，也就是说每年的净利润增长率都要远高于20%。除了美国政府旗下的房利美(Fannie Mae)和房地美(Freddie Mac)，盈利增速达到这种水平的超级明星企业也只有一家：还是苹果公司(Apple)。为了说明这个挑战的艰巨性，大家可以看看这个数字——2013年，微软(Microsoft)的利润为220亿美元。 　　Alibaba could still prove to be a great company and still not achieve that gargantuan goal. Its P/E of 47 doesn’t sound outrageous for a fast-grower. But keep in mind that Alibaba is already a massive company with earnings that would put it in the top 50 of the Fortune 500. So it has to grow those already large earnings like a super-charged upstart. The law of large numbers is working against this remarkable success story. Indeed, at these prices, it’s more a story than an investment. So stay entertained, and stay away. 　　实际情况仍可能表明，阿里巴巴是一家伟大的公司，但它仍可能无法实现这么高的目标。对于高增长企业来说，47倍的市盈率听上去并不离谱。但要知道，阿里巴巴的规模已经非常大，按利润水平计算，它已经能进入《财富》美国500强的前50名。因此，该公司必须像一个超负荷的暴发户一样让已经颇为巨大的利润继续快速增长。这种逆天的成功案例有悖大数定律。实际上，目前的股价让阿里巴巴更像一个可供传闻的故事，而不是实实在在的投资对象。所以，大家最好置身事外，继续观赏这出好戏。