Note: Concepts and ideas within this document, the CISC Integrated Th reat Assessment Methodology, are gathered from a
wide variety of law enforcement and intelligence agencies, academic publications and open source research, both domestic and
international as well as CISC Central and Provincial Bureau best practices. Th ese techniques and ideas are intended as a resource
for the broader intelligence community as well as individuals involved in the integrated threat assessment process. For more
information on the sources of information within this document, see the selected bibliography.
Th is document is a work in process which will be updated as the CISC integrated threat assessment process evolves.
Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology
Criminal Intelligence Service Canada
Version 1.0
Criminal Intelligence Service Canada
CISC Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology
Inquiries on this publication should be directed to:
Director General, Criminal Intelligence Service Canada
1200 Vanier Parkway
Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0R2
Canada
© Her Majesty the Queen in Right of Canada, (2007)
Th e integrated threat assessment process has its origins in the production of the fi rst National Th reat
Assessment on Organized and Serious Crime in Canada produced by CISC Central Bureau in 2003. In
2004, the process became truly integrated, resulting in a national collection plan process and national-
level working group meetings dedicated to establishing analytical standards for the assessments.
Continuing to build upon the foundation of previous threat assessments, both provincial and national,
in 2005 Central Bureau focused on the overall threat to Canada posed by each criminal market in terms
of its scope and magnitude and, in particular, the dynamics of organized crime groups’ involvement
within these markets. In 2007, Central Bureau will contribute further to the decision-making of senior
law enforcement by identifying signifi cant criminal threats as part of the coordinated enforcement
targeting process to determine organized crime priorities. Th is process, part of the Canadian Law
Enforcement Strategy to Combat Organized Crime, was developed by the Canadian Association of
Chiefs of Police in cooperation with CISC.
As the threat assessment process has evolved over fi ve years, there emerged a need to formalize the
processes and protocols that make up its foundation as an integral part of the Canadian Criminal
Intelligence Model. Th e methodology presented in this paper is the fi rst step in gathering together key
techniques, tools and common practices currently used or of emerging interest in the integrated threat
assessment process. Th e integrated threat assessment process continues to be a work in progress and will
continue to evolve through practice.
Foreword
3Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC
About Criminal Intelligence Service Canada .................................................................... 4
Central Bureau Products and Services ............................................................................... 4
Strategic Intelligence Analytical Products .............................................................. 5
Th ree-Module Struture ..................................................................................................... 6
National Th reat Assessment Structure ............................................................................... 7
Criminal Group Inventory Matrix .................................................................................... 8
Measuring Levels of Knowledge ....................................................................................... 9
Harms from Organized and Serious Crime .................................................................... 10
Business Rules ................................................................................................................. 11
Flowchart of Integrated Th reat Assessment Process ........................................................ 13
Words of Estimative Probability...................................................................................... 14
Canadian Criminal Intelligence Model ........................................................................... 15
Terminology .................................................................................................................... 16
Selected Bibliography ...................................................................................................... 28
Table of Contents
Unclassified
4 Integrated Threat Assessment MethodologyCISC
About Criminal Intelligence Service Canada
CISC is the voice of the Canadian criminal intelligence community. As such, it is in a
unique position to provide strategic intelligence on organized and serious crime in Canada
to senior law enforcement management and designated government departments.
Structure
Established in 1970, CISC unites the Canadian criminal intelligence community by
providing leadership and expertise to CISC member agencies. CISC consists of a Central
Bureau in Ottawa and ten Provincial Bureaus across Canada. Th e Central Bureau liaises
with and collects information and intelligence from the Provincial Bureaus which operate
independently while maintaining common service delivery standards.
Membership and Governance
CISC has three categories of membership. Category 1 is restricted to police agencies
that have full police authority provided under a Canadian federal or provincial police
act. Category 2 membership may be granted to those agencies that have a limited law
enforcement responsibility that grants them an authority under a specifi c federal and/or
provincial legislation (e.g. Customs Act, Provincial Wildlife Act). Category 3 membership
may be granted to an agency that does not have a direct law enforcement authority but
provides assistance to law enforcement agencies.
Th e CISC National Executive Committee is the governing body for CISC. It is chaired
by the Commissioner of the RCMP and is comprised of 24 leaders from Canada’s law
enforcement community.
Central Bureau Products and Services
ACIIS
ACIIS, the Automated Criminal Intelligence Information System, is the Canadian
law enforcement community’s national online database for criminal intelligence and
information on organized and serious crime and is only accessible to law enforcement.
Criminal Intelligence Training
CISC sponsors criminal intelligence courses every year, which are held in several locations
across the country. Th ese courses off er training to CISC member agency personnel in
various criminal intelligence functions.
National Criminal Intelligence Requirements, Collection and Liaison
Program & Strategic Analytical Services
Th e Central Bureau’s National Criminal Intelligence Requirements and Collection
Program collects and monitors information and intelligence on the organized crime
groups and their involvement within criminal markets. CISC Central Bureau’s Strategic
Analytical Services is responsible for the production of various strategic intelligence
5Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC
products. Strategic Analytical Services also designed, developed and implemented a
‘strategic early warning’ methodology and system to enhance current law enforcement
practices with a proactive approach to crime control and prevention.
Strategic Intelligence Analytical Products
CISC Central Bureau produces the following strategic intelligence analytical products:
National Th reat Assessment on Organized and Serious Crime in Canada:
Th e annual CISC National Th reat Assessment assists informed decision
making by senior law enforcement leaders as well as providing an overarching
evaluation of organized criminality nationally for the Canadian criminal
intelligence community. In 2007, Central Bureau will also identify signifi cant
criminal threats as an integral component of the coordinated enforcement
targeting process to determine organized crime priorities. Th is process, part of the
Canadian Law Enforcement Strategy to Combat Organized Crime, was
developed by the Canadian Association of Chiefs of Police in cooperation with
CISC.
National Criminal Intelligence Estimate on Organized and Serious Crime
in Canada: Th e primary aim of this report is to provide an overview of organized
and serious crime threats in Canada to enable informed decision making for
senior government offi cials.
Annual Report on Organized Crime in Canada: Th is report, the only national
public report on organized crime by law enforcement, is published
to inform and educate the public on the eff ects of organized crime as it aff ects
every community and region in Canada. Th is report is available at www.cisc.gc.ca.
Strategic Intelligence Th reat Assessments: CISC periodically produces in-depth
threat assessments on specifi c law enforcement issues and/or threats.
Strategic Intelligence Briefs: Th ese reports are intended to provide CISC
member agencies with shorter strategic analytical intelligence products on
organized crime issues aff ecting Canada. Unclassifi ed versions of these reports will
be posted on the internet as available.
Strategic Intelligence Précis: Th is product line provides an executive summary
of key fi ndings, judgements and forecasts from products such as the National
Th reat Assessment or National Criminal Intelligence Estimate.
Sentinel Watch List and Strategic Early Warning Assessments (Sentinel):
Th e Sentinel Watch List, produced quarterly, highlights a selection of future threat
scenarios that could have repercussions for the Canadian law enforcement
community in the coming months and years. Th e Sentinel is a product line that
provides strategic early warning assessments of criminal threats and developments
from within Canada and internationally.
Unclassified
6 Integrated Threat Assessment MethodologyCISC
In 2003, at the beginning of the integrated threat assessment process, the Central &
Provincial Bureaus started to establish consistent format & processes for the annual
integrated provincial threat assessments (PTAs). In December 2004, the Provincial
Bureaus agreed to adopt the three-module structure for their PTAs. Th is template
ensures a consistent approach nationally to assessing organized crime and also facilitates
comparisons between provinces.
Module I – Strategic Threat Assessment
• Th is module is completed by both the Provincial and Central Bureaus.
• Components of this module can include:
Environmental scan or drivers
Linkages – legitimate or criminal
Organized crime groups (threats, capabilities, vulnerabilities & trends)
Criminal markets (scope, magnitude, dynamics & trends)
Criminal harms
Forecasts
Recommendations
Module II – Organized Crime Group Inventory
• Provincial Bureaus complete group inventories on all or a specifi c number of
signifi cant criminal groups operating within their respective province.
• A group inventory template has been shared with all Provincial Bureaus to be used
as a common framework.
• Central Bureau completes a national, strategic group inventory in order to determine
signifi cant, inter-provincial, national and international-level criminal threats.
• Components of this module can include:
Group name and size Group structure
Group associations Sleipnir matrix
Business associations Money laundering
Recent law enforcement eff orts Sources of support
Criminal activities (known/suspected) Ports of entry
Module III – Tactical Profiles of Organized Crime Groups
or Individuals
• Th is module links the integrated threat assessments to the coordinated enforcement
targeting process that determines intelligence and enforcement targets.
• Th e tactical profi les contain target-specifi c intelligence on groups or individuals
engaged in organized and serious crime.
• Components of this module can include:
Personal data Criminal history and roles
Position and infl uence (reputation) Finances
Capabilities (expertise and skills) Vulnerabilities and opportunities
Three-Module Structure
7Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC
Th e format of CISC Central Bureau’s National Th reat Assessment is complementary with
the three-module approach of the integrated provincial threat assessments. Module I
provides strategic assessments of criminal markets and signifi cant criminal groups. In
2006, Central Bureau adopted Modules II and III to determine and classify signifi cant
criminal threats within an organized crime group inventory.
Module I: Strategic Criminal Market Assessment
A: Key Findings
B: Drivers: International Environment and Criminality in Canada
C: Harms and Criminal Markets (Economic, Social & Political)
D: Criminal Markets
Elements of each criminal sub-market is assessed with a focus on common
themes that could include scope, magnitude, legitimate and criminal linkages as well
as trends occurring on a national or international scale.
Illicit Drugs Financial Crime Contraband
• cocaine (crack cocaine) • mass marketing fraud • fi rearms
• ecstasy • payment card fraud • tobacco
• heroin • mortgage fraud • intellectual property rights
• marihuana • securities fraud • humans as commodity
• methamphetamine • money laundering • vehicle theft
Module II: Strategic Criminal Group Assessment
E: Analysis
Each criminal group identifi ed in the integrated provincial threat assessments is
classifi ed into threat categories based on the group’s criminal scope (international,
international (cross-border), inter-provincial, intra-provincial or local) as well as the
relative magnitude of the group’s criminal roles or activities.
Module III: Profiles of Organized Crime Groups (Inter-
provincial, National and International-level Threats)
F: Analysis
CISC Central Bureau assesses key criminal groups that pose higher-level threats
with criminal scopes at the inter-provincial, national and international levels.
H: Appendices
a) Defi nitions
b) Methodology
G: Assessment Evaluation Form
National Threat Assessment Structure
8 Integrated Threat Assessment MethodologyCISC
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57
6
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52
4
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36
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9Integrated Threat Assessment Methodology CISC
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ter
-li
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Go
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ify
ing
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