J.P. 摩根-全球宏观数据观察-宏观策略

EconomicResearchJuly6,2018GlobalDataWatchGlobalindustrytopickupthisquarterastraderiskslieonthehorizonChinaisslowingandeasingwhileEMAXisliftingandtighteningAMLOsendsreassuringsignalsfollowingadecisivevictoryNextweek:UKBrexitplan;USinflation;ChinainflationandtradeThenextmoveinglobalmanufacturingisupAlthoughglobalGDPlookstohaveacceleratedtoa3.6%arlastquarter,themanufacturingsectorremainedsluggish.WeestimateindustryoutputroseapercentagepointmoreslowlythanGDPandourglobalPMIoutputsurveycon-tinuedtodropthroughJune.Ourforecastlargelyanticipatedthesedevelop-mentsasweexpectedthefirst-quarterdownshiftingoodsspendinggrowthtopromptmorecautiousstockbuildingfromfirmsevenasfinaldemandrebound-ed.Whathasbeenasurpriseistheregionalcompositionofgrowth—particularlytheabsenceofareboundinWesternEuropefromtemporary1Q18dragsandtheapparentlossoffinishedgoodspricingpower.Indeed,globalcoreCPIgoodspriceslooktohavedroppedlastquarter.Webelievethisperiodofgoodssectorunderperformanceisoverandprojectamate-rialpickupinbothoutputgainsandgoodsCPIinflationinthecomingmonths(Fig-ures1and2).Thereboundinoutputislinkedtoourassessmentoffundamentalsunderpinningfinaldemand.1H18globalcorporateprofitslooktoberunningfasterthanour10%-15%forecastfortheyearasawholewithsolidregionalandsectoralbreadth.Thisperformancelikelyexplainsthecontinuedelevatedlevelsofbusinessconfidence.Thisweek’sG3labormarketreportsconfirmthatlaborincomecontin-uestogrowatahealthypaceandshouldsupportcontinuedsolidconsumerdemand.Asoutputgainsalignwithsoliddemandgrowth,wealsoexpectamaterialtempo-raryboostastheanticipatedreboundinWesternEuropearriveswithalaganddragsfromUSautosandtheBraziliantruckers’strikefade.Importantly,high-frequencyindicators—includingthisweek’sindustryreportsfromtheUS,GermanyandEMAsiaex.China(EMAX)—showthatthisaccelerationisalreadyunderway.Short-termmovesingoodspricesareinherentlydifficulttopredictbutlastquarter’sdropincorepriceswasnotmatchedbyasimilarpullbackinpipelinepriceindicators.WithreadingsfromPPIs,non-fuelimportprices,andbusi-nesssurveysallpointinginthedirectionofrisinggoodspricesthepickupinactivityislikelytobeaccompaniedbyareboundincoregoodsCPI.ThefirstJuneCPIreadingsfromtheEuroareaandJapanareconsistentwiththisview.0.51.52.53.54.55.550515253545556201620172018DI,saFigure1:Globalmanufacturing%3m3m,saarSource:J.P.MorganMfgoutputOutputPMI-0.50.00.51.01.52.0474951535512131415161718DI,saFigure2:Globalgoodsprices%3m,saarSource:J.P.MorganOutputpricesPMICoregoodsCPIContentsThetracksofmy(trade)tears15ShouldtheECB'sinflationobjectiveberaised?19GlobalEconomicOutlookSummary4GlobalCentralBankWatch6Nowcastofglobalgrowth7SelectedrecentresearchfromJ.P.MorganEconomics9TheJ.P.MorganView:Markets10DataWatchesUnitedStates23Euroarea30Japan34Canada38Mexico40Brazil42Argentina44ColombiaandPeru46UnitedKingdom48EmergingEurope50SouthAfrica&SSA55AustraliaandNewZealand58China,HongKong,andTaiwan60Korea64ASEAN66India70Asiafocus72RegionalDataCalendars74BruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNADavidHensley(1-212)834-5516david.hensley@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comJPMorganChaseBankNAwww.jpmorganmarkets.com2EconomicResearchGlobalDataWatchJuly6,2018JPMorganChaseBankNABruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comDavidHensley(1-212)834-5516david.hensley@jpmorgan.comJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comThisforecastdoesnotignoregenuinerisksposedbyaninten-sificationofglobaltradetensions.Webelieverisingtariffswillweighongrowth,andindustrialactivityislikelytobearthebruntofthisdrag.However,thetariffsimposedthusfarshouldnothaveamaterialdirectimpact.Ahittoglobalbusi-nesssentimentislikelytobethekeydrag.Butthesizeofthehituncertainanditisnotlikelytobefeltthisquarter.Thissuggestsadualtackinthisquarter’sglobaldatawatch-ing.Atthesametimethatwetracktheanticipatedpickupinactivitytoassessthefundamentalhealthoftheglobalexpan-sion,wewillpaycloseattentiontonewsontradeanditsim-pactonbusinesssentiment.WhilethelatestglobalPMIshowsasignificantfall-offinfutureoutputexpectationsthatmaybelinkedtotradeconcerns,JunesurveysofcapitalspendingintentionsactuallymovedhigherintheUS,Germany,andJapan(Figure3).ChinaisdivergentongrowthandpolicyAsUS-Chinatraderelationsenteranewphase,withUStar-iffsandChinesecountervailingmeasurestakinghold,thetwoeconomiesaremovingindifferentdirections.WhiletheUSacceleratedsharplytoaprojected4%arlastquarter,Chinaappearstobeslowing.Thisslowingreflectstheintendedef-fectsofcreditpolicies,whichhaveloweredfixedinvestmentgrowthto6.1%oyainthefirstfivemonthsofthisyear—thelowestreadingsince1990.Externalsupportsprobablylimitedtheslowinginoverallgrowthlastquarter—weprojectGDPgrowthtohaveeasedmoderatelyto6.6%arin2Q18—buttradetensionsmaysoonremovethissupport.Indeed,thisweek’sregionalPMIreportsshowChina’sexportordersfall-ingtothelowestlevelintwoyearsatthesametimethatEMAXreadingstookamaterialstephigher(Figure4).ThesedevelopmentsshouldproduceaChinapolicyresponsethatisincreasinglylikelytobebroad-based.OnthemonetarypolicyfrontweexpectthePBOCtodelivertwoadditional50bpRRRcutsandrelaxloanquotasonbanks.Onfiscalpol-icy,growth-supportivemeasurescouldincludesupportforinfrastructureinvestment,VATrebatesfortariff-impactedexportersincreasedfromaround8%toamaximumof16%;andtaxreductionsfortargetedcompanies(e.g.,SMEs).EMAsianCBtighteningontheway…WhileChinaiseasing,ratenormalizationshouldgathersteamelsewhereinEMAsiathisquarter.WehavehikesprojectedforTaiwan,thePhilippines,Thailand,andKorea.Wedon’texpectIndiatomoveuntilnextquarterbuttherisksofanAu-gustmovearerising.TheBankofKoreameetsnextweekbutweareinclinedtoseeitsnextratemovecominginAugust.TheMayMPCminutestiltedhawkishonasanguinegrowthandinflationoutlookandheightenedconcernaboutthenegativeKorea-USpolicyinterestratedifferential.AlthoughthedatasincetheMaymeetinghavebeenupbeat,uncertaintiesaroundtheBoK’sforecasthaveincreased,reflectingheightenedtradepolicytensionandtighterfinancialconditionsinEMtradingpartners.Againstthisbackdrop,weexpecttheBoKtoleaveitsbaserateunchangednextweek,butlikelywithahawkishsignalthatpointstoanAugustmove.AtitsJunemeeting,India’sMPCemphasizedvariousdomes-ticandglobaluncertaintiesthatsuggesteditwasinnorushtohikeinsuccessivemeetings.Anumberofdevelopmentssincethenarepressuringittoreconsiderthissignalofapause.SincetheJunemeeting,coreCPImaintainedupwardmomen-tum,oilpriceshaveremainedhigh,andtherupeehascontin-uedtoweaken.Perhapsmostimportantly,thisweekthegov-ernmentfollowedthroughonitsbudgetarypromisetohikeagriculturalsupportpricesinapre-electionyear.Whilethiswasinlinewithourexpectations,theMPChasonlycitedthisasanupsideinflationrisk.This,togetherwithanexpectedaccelerationinnextweek’sJuneCPIreport,islikelytopushuptheRBI’s1Q19inflationforecastfurtherabove5%and-2-10123201420152016201720182019Std.devfrom2010-forwardaverage.PMIis2012-forwardFigure3:Manufacturingoutputandcapex,expectationsSource:J.P.MorganGermancapexplans(IFO)UScapexplans(Fedsurveys)GlobalPMIfutureoutput47495153552016201720182019DI,sa.EMAXisEMAsiaexChinaandIndiaFigure4:EMnewexportordersPMISource:J.P.MorganEMAXEMEAEMChina3EconomicResearchGlobalDataWatchJuly6,2018JPMorganChaseBankNABruceKasman(1-212)834-5515bruce.c.kasman@jpmorgan.comDavidHensley(1-212)834-5516david.hensley@jpmorgan.comJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comsignificantlyincreasestheoddsoftheratehikebeingbroughtforwardtoAugust.…alongwithhikesinTurkeyTurkeyisalsounderpressuretoraiseratesastheJuneCPIrevealedclearupwardpressureonprices.Wehaverevisedouryear-endinflationforecastto13.2%from11.8%andnowexpecttheCBRTtohikeratesby125bpinJuly.Growthmo-mentumisalreadyfalteringandfurthermonetarytighteningandweakersentimentwilltranslateintoevenslowergrowth.ThisweekwelowerourGDPgrowthforecastforthisyearto3.7%andnextyearto2.8%,assumingaprudentgovernmentisformedandtheCBRTkeepsitspoliciestightforsometime.Brexit:CardsonthetableNextweek,theUKwillpublishproposalsforitsfuturerela-tionshipwiththeEUthatfleshoutitsideasforthe“Backstop”toensureahardborderinIrelandisprevented.Atthetimeofwriting,theircontentisnotclear.Buttheproposalsarere-portedtoseetheUKcommittoalignwithsinglemarketregu-lationsinthegoodssector,followECJjurisprudenceontheinterpretationofthoserules,andcollecttariffsonbehalfoftheEU.Afterthetransitionperiodends,theUKwouldremaininacustomsunionwiththeEUuntilsuchtimeasthesystemstoimplementadualtariffregimewithasoftIrishborderareinplace.TheimmediatequestioniswhetherPMMaycanwithstandthepoliticalbacklashfromthoseintheUKwhoseethisasadenialofthe“clean”Brexittheysought.Ourbestguessisthatshewill.Thenextquestioniswhetherthepro-posalconvinces“soft”BrexitConservativesthattheyshouldnotimposeapermanentCustomsUnionwiththeEUasaUKnegotiatingobjective.ThatissuewillseevotesintheCom-monsonJuly16/17.HowtheEUreactstotheproposalswillalsoinfluencethatvote.WeexpecttheEUwillnottakelongtostatethatitdoesnotseetheproposalsasrespectingtheintegrityofthesinglemarketorabletoconvincinglydeliverasolutiontotheIrishissue.Atthisstage,theCommonscus-tomsunionvotelookstooclosetocall.OilproductionboostedGCCgrowthWithUSsanctionsloomingoverIranandconflictdisruptingoilsupplyinLibya,weexpecttheGCCandIraqtobethemainbeneficiariesoftherecentOPEC+decisiontoraiseoiloutput.Accordingly,wehaveraisedour2018GCCGDPgrowthforecastto2.8%from2.2%.Anotherconsequenceofhigheroilpricesandproductionisafaster-than-expectedim-provementinexternalandfiscalbalances.Asthetopoilpro-ducer,SaudiArabiastandstobenefitthemostintheregion.Afterpreviouslyassumingalmostflathydrocarbonoutputthisyear,wenowassumethatSaudioilproductionwillincrease2.5%onaveragethisyearandnext.TherecouldbescopeforSaudiArabiatoraiseproductionevenfurtherdepending,inparticular,ontheeffectivenessofunilateralUSsanctionsonIran.Itremainstobeseenwhethertheauthoritiesopttouseincreasedproductionrevenuestobalancethefiscalaccountsfasterorchoosetostimulateeconomicactivityfurther,butwebelievestimulusisthemorelikelypriority.LandslidevictoryforAMLOinMexicoApreliminaryvotecountshowedAMLOwonlastweekend’selectioninMexicobyalargemargin,attainingover50%oftotalvotescast.Atthesametime,andtooursurprise,AMLOsecuredasimplemajorityinboththelowerhouseandthesenate,whichwillallowhim,amongotherthings,tocontrolfiscalpolicyoverthenextthreeyears.Greatercontrolraisestheriskofamoreradicalshiftinpolicybutinitialsignalsfromthenewgovernmentarecalmingthesefears.AMLOdeliveredanorthodoxvictoryspeech,stressinghiscommit-menttocentralbankindependence,fiscalandfinancialdisci-pline,andacentralizedpoliceforce.Atthesametimehesoundedconciliatory,thankingPresidentPeñaNietoforhisendorsementwhilealsomentioningtheimportanceofsup-portingandrespectingprivateinvestmenttoboostgrowth.AMLO’swould-begoverningcabinet—includingChiefofStaffAlfonsoRomoandMinisterofFinanceCarlosUrzúa—echoedhismessagethisweek,whilehisNAFTAchiefnego-tiatoralsoallayedconcernsbycommittingtomaintainthecurrentgovernment’snegotiatingstrategy.However,detailsandactualpolicyactionsarestillpending.The2019fiscalbudgetandthemedium-termNationalDevelopmentPlanwillbecloselywatchedforsignalsonthesetwofronts.AbidingbyanorthodoxeconomicpolicyframeworkwillbeparamountformarketstoremainateasewithAMLO’svictory,particu-larlygiventhepowerhewillwieldatboththefederalandlocallevels.Editor:GabrieldeKock(1-212)622-6718gabriel.s.dekock@jpmorgan.com4EconomicResearchGlobaleconomicoutlooksum-maryJuly6,2018JPMorganChaseBankNADavidHensley(1-212)834-5516david.hensley@jpmorgan.comCarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.comJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comGlobaleconomicoutlooksummaryRealGDPRealGDPConsumerprices%overayearago%overpreviousperiod,saar%overayearago2017201820194Q171Q182Q183Q184Q181Q194Q172Q184Q182Q19UnitedStates2.32.82.32.92.04.02.52.52.32.12.72.52.4Canada3.01.91.71.71.32.31.81.81.81.82.12.12.0LatinAmerica1.71.7↓2.72.33.2↓0.31.0↓2.33.43.93.43.63.6Argentina2.90.71.74.24.7-5.1-6.20.05.323.526.529.725.0Brazil1.01.23.00.91.80.01.82.83.52.83.13.64.0Chile1.53.83.72.84.93.02.72.94.52.02.53.13.4Colombia1.82.93.42.22.83.04.53.03.54.13.23.73.7Ecuador3.00.0↓-0.5↓4.9-2.7↓-0.8↑-2.3↓-1.3↑-0.8↓-0.2-0.70.61.5Mexico2.02.22.43.64.61.82.02.52.16.64.53.83.3Peru2.53.54.11.06.13.23.83.64.21.61.52.42.4Uruguay2.62.62.44.34.52.01.52.52.06.37.57.47.8Venezuela-12.0-10.0…-3.0-2.00.01.02.0…16911282911998..Asia/Pacific5.14.84.84.64.94.94.74.64.71.82.12.32.7Japan1.71.11.41.0-0.62.01.51.51.50.60.81.11.1Australia2.22.72.62.14.22.21.52.52.81.92.12.32.0NewZealand2.82.62.52.62.22.73.02.62.71.61.71.91.9EMAsia6.26.05.95.86.45.95.85.75.72.22.52.63.1China6.96.76.46.76.96.66.36.36.31.82.12.33.1India6.77.17.37.97.37.27.17.06.54.65.04.85.0ExChina/India4.14.03.82.54.93.53.83.53.91.92.22.22.2HongKong3.84.03.33.29.11.61.51.05.51.62.52.82.7Indonesia5.15.25.24.66.15.44.74.75.33.53.03.53.0Korea3.12.82.7-0.84.13.03.02.42.71.51.61.92.1Malaysia5.95.45.24.25.65.25.25.05.03.51.90.61.0Philippines6.76.76.96.26.36.77.27.56.03.04.73.32.9Singapore3.63.22.62.11.71.82.82.82.80.51.21.81.6Taiwan2.92.72.44.80.82.02.62.42.50.42.02.12.0Thailand3.94.53.71.98.12.54.54.13.40.91.41.11.5WesternEurope2.42.22.22.61.52.42.42.32.21.71.91.91.6Euroarea2.62.42.32.81.52.52.52.32.31.41.71.81.4Germany2.52.22.32.51.22.52.52.32.31.71.91.71.7France2.32.02.02.90.72.02.32.02.00.92.22.11.4Italy1.61.41.51.41.11.81.51.51.51.31.01.51.2Spain3.12.82.32.72.82.82.52.52.31.81.81.91.4Norway2.02.42.22.72.32.32.32.32.11.32.32.41.9Sweden2.52.82.13.02.92.52.32.32.01.81.82.22.3UnitedKingdom1.71.51.91.40.92.02.02.31.83.02.52.22.1EMEAEM3.92.92.5↓2.94.02.6↑1.8↓2.1↓2.4↓4.84.9↑5.6↑5.0↑CzechRepublic4.53.63.52.82.24.53.73.03.72.62.21.92.5Hungary4.04.23.65.44.94.34.03.53.52.32.82.62.7Israel3.33.63.64.54.51.62.83.63.80.30.61.01.1Poland4.64.53.74.16.64.33.83.83.82.31.81.42.0Romania6.93.22.81.20.04.53.22.82.43.15.33.93.2Russia1.51.71.6-0.82.64.8↑0.5↓1.31.5↑2.62.43.73.8SouthAfrica1.31.52.03.1-2.21.5↓3.54.0↑0.04.74.65.25.5Turkey7.43.7↓2.8↓7.08.0-2.00.40.8↓3.0↓12.312.8↑14.0↑11.0↑Global3.43.33.23.43.13.63.13.23.22.22.42.52.5Developedmarkets2.32.42.12.51.63.12.32.32.11.82.12.11.9Emergingmarkets5.14.94.94.85.64.54.44.64.92.83.0↑3.2↑3.5↑Global—PPPweighted3.93.93.83.73.84.13.63.73.72.52.72.82.9↑Note:ForsomeemergingeconomiesseasonallyadjustedGDPdataareestimatedbyJ.P.Morgan.BolddenoteschangesfromlasteditionofGlobalDataWatch,witharrowsshow-ingthedirectionofchanges.UnderlineindicatesbeginningofJ.P.Morganforecasts.Unlessnoted,concurrentnominalGDPweightscalculatedwithcurrentFXratesareusedincomputingourglobalandregionalaggregates.RegionalCPIaggregatesexcludeArgentina,EcuadorandVenezuela.RegionalGDPaggregatesexcludeVenezuela.ForecastsforArgentinaarebasedonJPMorgan’sestimatesofCPI.Source:J.P.Morgan5EconomicResearchGlobalDataWatchJuly6,2018JPMorganChaseBankNADavidHensley(1-212)834-5516david.hensley@jpmorgan.comCarltonStrong(1-212)834-5612carlton.m.strong@jpmorgan.comJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comG-3economicoutlookdetail2017201820192017201820193Q4Q1Q2Q3Q4Q1Q2QUnitedStatesRealGDP2.32.82.33.22.92.04.02.52.52.32.0Privateconsumption2.82.42.22.24.00.92.72.32.32.22.2Equipmentinvestment4.85.64.010.811.55.8-3.04.54.54.54.5Non-residentialconstruction5.68.15.4-7.06.316.211.68.06.04.54.5Intellectualpropertyproducts3.94.72.65.20.813.2-0.12.52.53.03.0Residentialconstruction1.81.30.8-4.712.8-1.11.11.01.00.80.8Inventorychange($bnsaar)15.224.954.538.515.613.910.232.443.247.450.8Governmentspending0.12.23.40.73.01.32.93.24.74.22.9Exportsofgoodsandservices3.45.85.12.17.03.611.85.05.04.54.5Importsofgoodsandservices4.04.97.4-0.714.13.2-0.49.08.57.57.5Domesticfinalsalescontribution2.52.72.62.04.62.12.42.72.92.72.5Inventoriescontribution-0.10.10.20.8-0.60.0-0.10.50.20.10.1Nettradecontribution-0.10.1-0.50.4-1.20.01.7-0.7-0.6-0.6-0.6Consumerprices(%oya)2.12.62.32.02.12.32.72.82.52.22.4Excludingfoodandenergy(%oya)1.82.22.41.71.71.92.22.32.32.22.3CorePCEdeflator(%oya)1.52.02.21.41.51.61.92.12.22.12.1Federalbudgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)-3.4-3.9-4.8Personalsavingrate(%)3.43.12.73.42.73.33.13.02.92.82.8Unemploymentrate(%)4.43.83.34.34.14.13.93.73.63.43.3Industrialproduction,manufacturing1.22.51.5-2.15.31.73.14.11.21.01.0EuroareaRealGDP2.62.42.32.92.81.52.52.52.32.32.3Privateconsumption1.71.82.21.50.71.92.52.02.32.32.3Capitalinvestment3.53.43.7-1.25.52.04.04.04.03.53.5Governmentconsumption1.21.11.51.81.10.11.51.51.51.51.5Exportsofgoodsandservices5.53.63.76.39.1-1.63.04.04.03.53.5Importsofgoodsandservices4.53.34.22.06.2-0.54.04.54.54.04.0Domesticfinalsalescontribution1.91.92.31.01.71.52.52.22.32.22.3Inventoriescontribution0.00.20.1-0.2-0.60.60.30.3-0.10.10.1Nettradecontribution0.70.30.02.11.6-0.6-0.30.00.0-0.1-0.1Consumerprices(HICP,%oya)1.51.71.51.41.41.31.71.91.81.61.4exfood,alcoholandenergy1.01.11.51.20.91.01.01.01.31.41.4Generalgovt.budgetbalance(%ofGDP,FY)-1.6-1.1-0.9Unemploymentrate(%)9.18.27.49.08.78.58.48.17.97.67.4Industrialproduction2.92.32.97.85.2-2.41.03.53.03.03.0JapanRealGDP1.71.11.42.01.0-0.62.01.51.51.52.0Privateconsumption1.00.51.2-2.71.3-0.31.51.51.01.02.0Businessinvestment2.92.93.14.12.81.33.04.03.03.05.0Residentialconstruction2.7-3.84.6-6.3-10.3-7.21.01.05.010.010.0Publicinvestment1.2-0.30.2-10.1-1.7-0.52.00.00.00.00.0Governmentconsumption0.40.60.60.20.20.40.80.80.50.50.5Exportsofgoodsandservices6.75.44.28.29.22.66.05.05.04.04.0Importsofgoodsandservices3.53.14.3-5.212.91.2-2.07.04.04.08.0Domesticfinalsalescontribution1.20.71.4-1.60.8-0.11.61.71.31.42.3Inventoriescontribution0.00.00.01.30.8-0.7-1.00.20.00.10.4Nettradecontribution0.50.40.02.3-0.60.21.4-0.30.20.0-0.7Consumerprices(%oya)0.51.11.10.60.61.30.81.11.11.21.1exfoodandenergy-0.20.40.4-0.20.00.20.20.50.70.91.0Generalgovt.netlending(%ofGDP,CY)-4.1-3.6-2.8Unemploymentrate(%)2.82.32.22.82.72.52.32.32.22.22.1Industrialproduction4.52.53.71.76.5-5.37.04.03.04.04.5Memo:Globalindustrialproduction3.03.22.82.74.22.83.43.42.62.62.8%oya3.33.23.33.23.43.03.02.8Note:MoreforecastdetailsfortheG-3andothercountriescanbefoundonJ.P.Morgan’sMorganMarketsclientwebsite.Source:J.P.Morgan6EconomicResearchGlobalCentralBankWatchJuly6,2018JPMorganChaseBankNADavidHensley(1-212)834-5516david.hensley@jpmorgan.comJosephLupton(1-212)834-5735joseph.p.lupton@jpmorgan.comOlyaEBorichevska(1-212)834-5398olya.e.borichevska@jpmorgan.comGlobalCentralBankWatchOfficialCurrentChangesince(bp)LastchangeNextmtgForecastForecast(%pa)raterate(%pa)05-07avgoyanextchangeSep18Dec18Mar19Jun19Sep19Global2.43-167142.552.642.752.812.94excludingUS2.60-161382.672.702.752.732.82Developed0.89-220251.031.161.301.421.60Emerging5.01-201-125.105.135.185.135.18LatinAmerica6.25-466-1806.336.376.456.316.69EMEAEM7.54105837.847.777.797.547.26EMAsia4.17-154-44.214.274.314.334.37TheAmericas2.62-253402.843.063.283.473.74UnitedStatesFedfunds2.00-2337513Jun18(+25bp)1Aug1826Sep18(+25bp)2.252.502.753.003.25CanadaO/Nrate1.25-2387517Jan18(+25bp)11Jul18Jul18(+25bp)1.501.752.002.252.50BrazilSELICO/N6.50-894-37521Mar18(-25bp)1Aug18Jul19(+50bp)6.506.506.506.507.50MexicoReporate7.75-197721Jun18(+25bp)2Aug18Aug18(+25bp)8.008.008.007.507.00Argentina7-dayrepo40.00N\A9754May18(+40bp)11Jul18Oct18(-200bp)40.0038.0036.5034.5033.00ChileDiscrate2.50-200018May17(-25bp)24Jul18Oct18(+25bp)2.502.753.003.253.75ColombiaReporate4.25-300-15029Jan18(-25bp)27Jul18Dec18(+25bp)4.254.505.005.005.00PeruReference2.75-123-1258Mar18(-25bp)12Jul18Jan19(+25bp)2.752.753.253.253.50Europe/Afr