奥巴马外交

奥巴马的外交政策的挑战 by Henry A. Kissinger亨利基辛格 The Washington Post - April 22, 2009华盛顿邮报 - 2009年4月22日 The vast diplomatic agenda that the Obama administration has adopted will test its ability to harmonize national priorities such as relations with Iran and North Korea with global and multilateral concerns.广袤的外交议程，奥巴马政府将采取协调的能力测试，如与伊朗和朝鲜的关系与全球和多边涉及国家的优先事项。 President Obama has come into office at a moment of unique opportunity.总统奥巴马已经进入办公室的独一无二的机会的时刻。 The economic crisis absorbs the energies of all the major powers; whatever their differences, all need a respite from international confrontation.经济危机吸取了所有大国的能源;任何分歧，都需要一个喘息的机会，从国际对抗。 Overriding challenges such as energy, the environment and proliferation concern them to a considerable degree and in an increasingly parallel way.诸如能源，环境和扩散的关切他们在相当程度和并行方式，在日益覆盖的挑战。 The possibility of comprehensive solutions is unprecedented.全面解决的可能是前所未有的。 Obama has launched negotiations on an extraordinary range of subjects.奥巴马启动了一个特殊范围的科目进行谈判。 Each has a political as well as a strategic component.每个人都有一个政治和战略的组成部分。 Each deals with issues peculiar to itself.与自身特有的问 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 ，每个交易。 Each runs the risk that inherent obstacles could obscure ultimate objectives or that negotiating tactics could warp substance.每个运行的固有风险，最终目标的障碍可能模糊或扭曲的实质 内容 财务内部控制制度的内容财务内部控制制度的内容人员招聘与配置的内容项目成本控制的内容消防安全演练内容 的谈判策略可能。 But the challenges are also closely related.但挑战也是密切相关的。 For example, arms control negotiations with Russia will affect Russia's role in the nonproliferation effort with Iran.例如，与俄罗斯军控谈判将影响俄罗斯在与伊朗防扩散努力中的作用。 The strategic dialogue with China will help shape the Korean negotiations.与中国的战略对话将有助于塑造朝鲜谈判。 The negotiations will also be affected by perceptions of regional balances - of the key participants, for Russia, this applies especially to the former Soviet space in Central Asia; for China and the United States, to the political structure of Northeast Asia and the Pacific Rim.谈判也将受影响的区域平衡的看法 - 的主要参与者，俄罗斯，这尤其适用于前苏联在中亚的空间;为中国和美国，对东北亚和环太平洋地区的政治体制。 This reality needs to be translated into some operational concept of world order.这一现实需要将一些世界秩序的经营理念翻译。 The administration's approach seems to be pointing toward a sort of concert diplomacy, which existed for some two decades after the Napoleonic Wars, in which groupings of great powers work together to enforce international norms.布什政府的做法似乎是朝着外交演唱会，这对于一些在拿破仑战争后二十年，在这些大国集团携手合作，执行国际标准存在某种指点。 In that view, American leadership results from the willingness to listen and to provide inspirational affirmations.在该视图中，从美国领导的结果，愿意倾听并提供鼓舞人心的肯定。 Common action grows out of shared convictions.共同行动源于共同的信念。 Power emerges from a sense of community and is exercised by an allocation of responsibilities related to a country's resources.从电源出现了社区意识，是由有关国家的资源分配责任行使。 It is a kind of world order either without a dominating power or in which the potentially dominating power leads through self-restraint.它是世界秩序的主导力量之一，或没有在其中的主导力量可能通过自我克制的线索。 The economic crisis favors this approach even though there are few examples of sustained operation of such a concert.经济危机赞成这种做法即使有这样一个演唱会的永续经营的几个例子。 Typically, members of any grouping reflect an unequal distribution of willingness to run risks, leading to an unequal willingness to allocate efforts on behalf of international order, and hence to the potential veto of the most irresolute.通常情况下，任何集团成员的意愿反映到运行风险分配不均，导致不平等的意愿来分配代 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 的国际秩序的努力，因此也最犹豫不决的潜在否决权。 The Obama administration need not choose yet whether to ultimately rely on consensus or equilibrium.奥巴马政府不需要选择，但无论最终依靠共识或平衡。 But it must fine-tune its national security structure to judge the environment it faces and calibrate its strategy accordingly.但必须调整其国家安全结构，以判断它面临的环境并调整相应的策略。 The administration's task, particularly with regard to North Korea and Iran, will be to keep the far-flung negotiations led by energetic personalities heading toward an agreed goal.政府的任务，特别是关于朝鲜和伊朗，将是保持遥远的走向充满活力的个性商定的目标标题主导的谈判。 In the process, it must navigate between two kinds of public pressures toward diplomacy endemic in American attitudes.在此过程中，必须定位在两对美国外交的态度种地方病公众的压力。 Both seek to transcend diplomacy's traditional give-and-take.两国都在设法超越外交的传统给予和服用。 The first reflects an aversion to negotiating with societies that do not share our values and general outlook.首先反映了厌恶与社会不认同我们的价值观和一般前景进行谈判。 It rejects the effort to alter the other side's behavior through negotiations.它反对的努力来改变对方的行为，通过谈判。 It treats compromise as appeasement and seeks the conversion or overthrow of the adversary.它视为绥靖妥协和寻求转换或推翻对手。 Critics of this approach, who represent the second sort of pressure, emphasize psychology.这种方法的批评，代表谁的压力第二个排序，强调心理。 They consider the opening of negotiations an inherent transformation.他们认为谈判的一种内在的转变开幕。 For them, symbolism and gestures represent substance.对于他们来说，象征主义和手势所代表的实质内容。 Proliferation is perhaps the most immediate illustration of the relationship between world order and diplomacy.也许是增殖之间的外交关系和世界秩序的最直接的例证。 If North Korea and Iran succeed in establishing nuclear arsenals in the face of the stated opposition of all the major powers in the UN Security Council and outside of it, the prospects for a homogeneous international order will be severely damaged.如果朝鲜和伊朗成功地建立在对所有在联合国安理会主要大国和它的外面，一个均匀的国际秩序的前景将面临严重破坏表示反对核武库。 In a world of multiplying nuclear weapons states, it would be unreasonable to expect that those arsenals will never be used or never fall into the hands of rogue organizations.在一个国家的成倍增加核武器的世界，那将是不合理的，这些库将永远不会被使用或从未落入流氓组织的手里。 A new, less universal, approach to world order would be needed.一种新的，通用性不足，接近世界秩序将是必要的。 The next (literally) few years will be the last opportunity to achieve an enforceable restraint.下一个（直译）几年将是最后一次机会，以达到强制执行的克制。 If the United States, China, Japan, South Korea and Russia cannot achieve this vis-à-vis a country with next to no impact on international trade and no resources needed by anyone, the phrase "world community" will become empty.如果美国，中国，日本，韩国和俄罗斯不能达到这个面对面的人几乎没有一个对国际贸易的影响及不需要任何人的资源，把“国际社会”的国家将成为空白。 North Korea has recently voided all concessions it made in six years of talks.朝鲜最近已作废所有的让步在六个会谈年内提出。 It cannot be permitted to sell the same concessions over and over again.它不能被允许出售一遍又一遍同样的让步了。 The six-power talks should be resumed only if Pyongyang restores the circumstances to which it has already agreed, mothballing its plutonium reactor and returning international inspectors to the site.在六国会谈应该方可恢复，如果平壤恢复的情况下向它已经同意，封存其钚反应堆和国际核查人员返回到现场。 When those talks resume, the ultimate quid pro quo must be the abandonment of the Korean nuclear weapons program and the destruction of the existing stockpile in return for normalization of relations at the end of the process.当这些会谈恢复，最终报偿必须是朝鲜放弃核武器计划以及在关系正常化的回报在现有库存的销毁过程结束。 Since the outcome affects all neighbors of North Korea, and the Korean nuclear program threatens them more than it does the United States, calls to place the emphasis on bilateral Korean-US talks amount to a call for isolating the United States.因为其结果会影响朝鲜所有邻国，以及朝鲜核计划威胁到他们应该比美国，调用地方隔离美国对朝鲜的双边中美会谈强调通话量。 Iran is, of course, a far more complex country with a greater direct impact on its region.伊朗是的，当然，一个更加直接影响的地区更为复杂的国家。 The diplomatic process with Iran is just beginning.与伊朗的外交努力才刚刚开始。 Its outcome will depend on whether it is possible to establish a geostrategic balance in the region in which all countries, including Iran, find security without any country dominating.其结果将取决于它是否有可能在该地区建立一个地缘战略平衡，使所有国家，包括伊朗，没有找到任何支配国家的安全。 To that goal, bilateral US-Iranian talks are indispensable.为了实现这一目标，美中双边会谈是伊朗的不可缺少的。 Any negotiations with Iran will be heavily influenced by whether progress toward stability in Iraq continues or whether an emerging vacuum tempts Iranian adventurism.与伊朗的任何谈判将是严重影响了对伊拉克的稳定，是否继续取得进展还是一个新兴的真空诱惑伊朗的冒险主义。 I have generally found that the best negotiating approach is to put before the other side a full and honest account of one's ultimate objectives.我已经普遍认为最好的办法是把谈判对方前一个人的最终目标的全面和诚实的帐户。 Tactical bargaining - moving through a series of minimum concessions - tests endurance via peripheral issues.战术谈判 - 通过移动的最低优惠系列 - 耐力测试，通过外围问题。 But it runs the risk of producing misunderstanding about ultimate purposes.但它运行的最终目的，年产量约误解的风险。 Sooner or later, the fundamental issues have to be addressed.迟早的根本问题已经得到解决。 This is particularly necessary when dealing with a country with which there has been no effective contact for three decades.这是特别必要时，与其中有三十年一直没有有效的联系国打交道。 By contrast, the issue of proliferation is intrinsically multilateral.相比之下，扩散问题在本质上是多边的。 Heretofore, Britain, France, Germany, Russia and now the United States have coordinated by consensus.迄今为止，英国，法国，德国，俄罗斯，现在美国有协调的共识。 The price they have paid is that key issues have remained unresolved and even unaddressed.他们所付出的代价是，关键的问题仍然没有解决，甚至没有得到解决。 Some are factual: how far Iran is from developing sufficient enriched materials for a nuclear warhead and how far it is from building a warhead for a missile; the degree to which international inspections could verify a limited enrichment program declared as peaceful; and how much warning would be available if the declaration were violated.一些事实：伊朗多远来自发展中国家的核弹头足够丰富的 材料 关于××同志的政审材料调查表环保先进个人材料国家普通话测试材料农民专业合作社注销四查四问剖析材料 和有多远建立一个导弹弹头，在何种程度上可以验证一个国际核查有限的铀浓缩计划是和平声明;多少警告将可用的声明受到了侵犯。 While the administration seeks to persuade Iran to enter into dialogue (and there must be some point when reiterated requests turn on themselves), it should energetically seek to resolve the factual disputes among our prospective negotiating partners described above.虽然政府当局旨在说服伊朗进行对话（也有一些问题必须对自己的要求时，重申了打开），它应该积极寻求解决在我们未来的合作伙伴的谈判上述事实争议。 That is the only way to sustain multilateral diplomacy.这是唯一的方法来维持多边外交。 If no agreement can be reached on these issues, the long-sought negotiations will end in stalemate and wind up, through the veto of the least resolute, legitimizing an Iranian nuclear weapons program.如果没有 协议 离婚协议模板下载合伙人协议 下载渠道分销协议免费下载敬业协议下载授课协议下载 可以在这些问题上达成共识，长期寻求的谈判将结束僵局，结束通过最不坚定的，合法化的伊朗核武器计划的否决权。 The administration has launched the country on an important diplomatic enterprise.布什政府已推出一项重要的外交企业的国家。 It now needs to fulfill its vision with a diplomatic plan.它现在需要一个外交计划履行其愿景。 Back to Recent Articles »