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策马翻译 培训 焊锡培训资料ppt免费下载焊接培训教程 ppt 下载特设培训下载班长管理培训下载培训时间表下载 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 1 www.cemachina.com Euit EU interpretation training 欧盟口译训练 cemachina.com Copyright © 2010 CEMACHINA.COM, All Rights Reserved 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 2 www.cemachina.com 当今全球金融风险与收益 RISKS AND REWARDS OF TODAY'S UNSHACKLED GLOBAL FINANCE Finance is the brain of the market economy. Alas, like the brains of individual human beings, it can shift in an instant from greed to fear. Sometimes, as now, the brain behaves as if indifferent to risks and uncertainties. At other times, it is consumed by anxiety. Today, moreover, as I argued last week (“Unfettered finance is fast reshaping the global economy”, June 18 2007), the brain has become active, global and self-confident. Is it also creating huge dangers for the world economy? 金融是市场经济的大脑。唉，就像人类 大脑一样，它能在刹那间从贪婪转向恐惧。 有时（就像现在），“大脑” 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 现得就像对 风险和不确定因素漠不关心。但在其它时 候，它又因焦虑而筋疲力尽。如今，正像我 最近所言（《无拘无束的金融正在迅速重塑 全球经济》(Unfettered finance is fast reshaping the global economy)，2007 年 6 月 18 日——在 FT.com 上出版，译者注）， 这个大脑已变得活跃、全球化且颇为自信。 它也会为世界经济制造巨大风险吗？ Critics would levy three big charges against modern financial capitalism: it is unjust; it is inefficient; and it is unstable. This charge sheet is as old as capitalism itself. 批评人士会把三大罪名加在现代金融 资本主义身上：不公正、效率低下和不稳定。 这些指摘与资本主义自身同样古老。 Two objections are made to the rewards gained by financiers. The large one is that making large sums out of speculation, rather than production, is distasteful. But this distinction is 对于金融家的报酬，存在着两种异议。 比较大的一个异议是，从投机、而非生产中 赚取大笔财富，令人反感。但这种区分有些 武断。远为重要的是，这些活动在经济上是 否有益。较为狭隘的异议针对的是财政体制， 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 3 www.cemachina.com arbitrary. What matters far more is whether the activities are economically helpful. A narrower objection is to the fiscal regimes under which successful financiers operate. Yet this, again, raises general questions about fiscal policy, not ones limited to the financial sector. Thus, the charge that there are injustices associated only with financial capitalism is hard to justify. 成功的金融家这个体制下运作。而这又一次 引发了有关财政政策的广泛问题，这些问题 并不仅仅局限于金融领域。因此，很难证明 那种认为不公正仅仅是与金融资本主义相关 的指责是正当的。 More interesting, therefore, is the second question: does the financial brain even know what it is doing? In other words, does the financial system add to economic efficiency? 因此，更有趣的是第二个问题：这个金 融大脑知道自己在做什么吗？换言之，金融 体系是否提高了经济效率呢？ The benefit and risk of finance are two sides of one coin. The benefit is the ability to reallocate resources among people at any point of time and over time. The risk is that the resulting pyramids of promises are vulnerable to fraud, deception and irreducible uncertainty and so to successive fits of optimism and panic. 金融的益处和风险是一件事的正反两 个方面。益处是在任何时候并随着时间的推 移，能够在人们中间进行资源的再分配。而 风险在于，随之而来不断升级的承诺，在面 对欺诈、诡计和无法减少的不确定因素，以 及乐观和恐慌持续阵发时，现在十分脆弱。 These are indeed inescapable features of any financial system, to be managed, not eliminated. It is impossible to align the interests of insiders with those of the people they ostensibly serve, let alone with those of the wider public. To take just one salient contemporary example, the least that managers of private equity or hedge funds can earn is the management fee. But their investors – or, more probably, the people who depend on the money their investors manage – may lose everything. 这些的确是任何金融体系的必然特征， 只能对其进行管理，而无法完全消除。将内 部人士的利益与金融体系表面上服务对象的 利益一致起来，是不可能的，更不必说将更 广泛的公众利益与之相联了。仅列举一个当 代的突出事例，私人股本或对冲基金经理至 少可以赚取管理费。但他们的投资者——或 更有可能的是，那些依赖投资者所管理的资 金的人——却可能损失一切。 As Professor Dani Rodrik of Harvard university has pointed out in a comment in the FT's Economists' Forum, it has 哈佛大学(Harvard university)的达尼 •罗德里克(Dani Rodrik)教授在英国《金融 时报》经济学家论坛(Economists' Forum) 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 4 www.cemachina.com proved possible to tame domestic finance, more or less. In the US, the country with the most sophisticated financial system in the world, the financial sector seems to have generated much innovation, along with a reasonable degree of stability. But the evidence on the benefits of liberalisation in emerging economies, though not absent, is not as strong as proponents desire. This is not because there are no benefits. It is, instead, partly because the financial markets are primitive, partly because the interface between global and domestic markets is defective and partly because benefits have been overwhelmed by the costs of crises. 的评论中指出，事实已经证明，或多或少地 抑制国内金融是可能的。在全球金融体系最 为复杂的美国，金融行业似乎带来了很多的 创新，同时也有着适度的稳定。但在新兴经 济体中，显示出自由化益处的迹象，虽然不 是没有，但却不如倡导者所希望的那样明显。 这并非是因为没有益处。相反，部分原因在 于金融市场还处于初期阶段，部分原因是国 际和国内市场之间的界面尚存在缺陷，而另 一部分原因则是这些益处被危机成本所掩 盖。 This brings us to the third item on the charge sheet: the ability of the financial brain to generate huge calamities. At present, that possibility looks remote. It is a decade since the Asian financial crisis began to roll across the globe. Today, we see a fast-growing global economy, with low spreads on risky assets, strong corporate balance sheets, easy issuance of debt and, inevitably, declining returns on speculative activity, as well (see charts). Yet, as the Bank for International Settlements points out in its latest annual report, still the best single official analysis of how the financial and monetary systems are evolving, that is the right time to worry. By the time crisis hits it is far too late. It is well before then that people make mistakes. Usually, moreover, it is not those responsible for the mistakes who suffer, but everybody else. 由此我们可以进入到第三项罪名：金融 大脑能够引发大规模灾难。目前，发生这种 情况的可能性似乎很小。从亚洲金融危机开 始席卷全球，而今已有 10 年的时间。今天， 我们目睹了全球经济的迅速发展，风险资产 较低的利差水平，公司强劲的资产负债状况， 宽松的债务发行环境，以及（不可避免的） 投机活动回报率的不断下降（见表）。然而， 正如国际清算银行(Bank for International Settlements)在其最新年度 报告 软件系统测试报告下载sgs报告如何下载关于路面塌陷情况报告535n,sgs报告怎么下载竣工报告下载 中所指出的 那样，现在正是忧思之际。在 分析 定性数据统计分析pdf销售业绩分析模板建筑结构震害分析销售进度分析表京东商城竞争战略分析 金融和货 币体系如何演变方面，该报告仍是最好的一 份官方文件。等危机来临的时候，就已为时 太晚。早在那之前，人们就犯下了错误。此 外，受害者通常不是那些为这些错误负责的 人，而是其余所有人。 How big are those dangers today? 目前这些危险有多严重？我认为相当 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 5 www.cemachina.com Sizeable, would be my guess. The consensus is for continued, rapid and stable economic growth. But, as the BIS remarks: “It is not difficult to identify uncertainties that could conceivably cause the near-term forecast to come unstuck, or that could result in less welcome outcomes over a longer horizon.” 严重。人们的共识是经济持续、迅速而稳定 地增长。然而，正如国际清算银行所言：“不 难确定那些可能确然导致近期预测混乱，或 在较长时期内导致不愿看到的结果出现的不 确定性。” The risk of inflation is one such uncertainty, as capacity is used up across the globe. The exalted level of housing markets in most high-income countries is another. The continued reliance on US household spending and, more broadly, the elevated level of private consumption in almost all high-income countries is yet another. Not to be forgotten are persistent and massive deficits and surpluses in the global balance of payments and associated capital flows. Moreover, government intervention in foreign currency markets still accounts for a sizeable part of the financing of the US current account deficit. 通胀风险就是这种不确定性之一，因为 全球产能正在枯竭。另一个不确定性，是多 数高收入国家的住宅市场处于高位。对美国 家庭支出的持续依赖，以及几乎所有高收入 国家私人消费水平的提高，是又一个不确定 性。我们还不能忘记，全球收支平衡持续存 在的巨额赤字和盈余、以及相关的资本流动。 另外，在为美国经常账户赤字融资的过程中， 政府对外汇市场的干预仍占据相当大的比 例。 In addition, we have to consider what is going on in the financial markets themselves. How many investors, for example, are taking equity risks in return for poor bond returns? How many of them are even aware that these risks are being taken on their behalf? As the BIS notes: “ There seems to be a natural tendency in markets for past successes to lead to more risk-taking, more leverage, more funding, higher prices, more collateral and, in turn, more risk-taking . . . Moreover, should liquidity dry up and correlations among asset prices rise, the concern would be that prices might also overshoot on the 此外，我们必须考虑金融市场自身的现 状。例如，有多少投资者由于债券的回报率 较低而正承担着股市风险？而其中有多少人 真正意识到这些风险是由他们承担的？国际 清算银行指出：“市场似乎存在着一种自然 而然的趋势，过去的成功导致人们承担更大 风险，借贷更多、融资更多、价格更高、担 保更多，从而承担更大的风险……另外，如 果流动性枯竭且资产价格联动性上升，我们 担心的是，价格将快速向下俯冲。” 策马翻译培训 EU interpretation training | A zh-en 6 www.cemachina.com downside.” Is it possible to take advantage of the financial brain's abilities, while limiting its capacity for irresponsible, short-sighted and destructive behaviour? What are the policy issues that we would be examining if we wanted to do so. 我们能够在利用金融大脑的能力的同 时，限制其不负责任、短视和破坏性行为的 能力吗？如果我们希望这样做的话，我们应 考虑哪些政策问题？ First, for essentially political reasons, we must re-examine the taxation of income and wealth. 首先，本质上出于政治原因，我们必须 重新考察收入和财产税。 Second, we should recognise that emerging and small economies have to manage their involvement with the global financial system cautiously. 其次，我们应意识到，新兴经济体和小 型经济体必须谨慎处理融入全球金融体系的 问题。 Third, we must also realise that the mixture of floating exchange rates with a number of important pegged rates is creating huge distortions. 第三，我们还必须认识到，浮动性汇率 与一些重要的盯住汇率混合在一起，正造成 巨大的扭曲。 Fourth, we must look more closely at how monetary policy interacts with the financial sector and asset prices. 第四，我们必须更密切地观察货币政策 与金融行业及资产价格之间的相互作用。 Fifth, we should also look once again at how well vast rewards are aligned with risk in financial markets. 第五，我们应再次考察巨额回报是否与 金融市场风险相符。 Finally, we must encourage regulatory and fiscal authorities to achieve higher levels of co-ordination. 最后，我们必须鼓励监管和财政部门加 强协调。 We will have to live with today's financial markets, since policymakers would seek to curtail them only after a disaster. Even their critics should fear such a disaster. The task is, instead, to exploit the many benefits, while managing the risks. This will never be done perfectly. But it can be done at least tolerably well. The alternative is too awful to consider. 我们必须与当今的金融市场共存，因为 决策者只会在灾难发生后才会对其进行整 治。甚至连金融市场的批评者们，也应担心 这种灾难。我们的任务是利用上述益处，同 时控制风险。我们永远不可能做到完美。但 我们至少可以在可容忍的范围内做好。无所 作为太可怕了，不应予以考虑。 / 当今全球金融风险与收益 RISKS AND REWARDS OF TODAY'S UNSHACKLED GLOBAL FINANCE Jþ§m ±dy�Ѿ¨¯¬hÄ⁄5wÈv¦•M~fiÌ�y¾ŁL