表为某种特种汽车轮胎的月销售记录

表为某种特种汽车轮胎的月销售 记录 混凝土 养护记录下载土方回填监理旁站记录免费下载集备记录下载集备记录下载集备记录下载 。a.计算当SA。=100，α=0.2时的一次指数平滑预测值。b.计算当SA。=100，α=0.4时的一次指数平滑预测值。c.计算a，b两种情况的MAD,RSFE。月份123456789101112销售量104104100921059595104104107110109某公司的月销售额一次指数平滑预测表（SA。=100，α=0.2）单位：只月份销售量α×上月实销售量上月预测销售量（1-α）×上月预测销售量本月平滑预测销售量MADRSFE1104.00　　　100.005.29391522.702104.0020.80100.0080.00100.80　　3100.0020.80100.8080.64101.44　　492.0020.00101.4481.15101.15　　5105.0018.40101.1580.9299.32　　695.0021.0099.3279.46100.46　　795.0019.00100.4680.3799.37　　8104.0019.0099.3779.4998.49　　9104.0020.8098.4978.7999.59　　10107.0020.8099.5979.68100.48　　11110.0021.40100.4880.38101.78　　12109.0022.00101.7881.42103.42　　表C-1.1某公司的月销售额一次指数平滑预测表（SA。=100，α=0.4）单位：只月份销售量α×上月实销售量上月预测销售量（1-α）×上月预测销售量本月平滑预测销售量MADRSFE1104.00　　　100.005.04517418.322104.0041.60100.0060.00101.60　　3100.0041.60101.6060.96102.56　　492.0040.00102.5661.54101.54　　5105.0036.80101.5460.9297.72　　695.0042.0097.7258.63100.63　　795.0038.00100.6360.3898.38　　8104.0038.0098.3859.0397.03　　9104.0041.6097.0358.2299.82　　10107.0041.6099.8259.89101.49　　1111042.8101.4960.89103.69　　1210944103.6962.22106.22　　表C-1.22.生产运作管理课本95页习题3表为某城区居民平均每季猪肉消费量。是选用适当的模型并预测该城区居民下一年各季度平均猪肉消费量。单位：公斤　春夏秋冬第一年3.051.451.964.54第二年5.113.423.896.62第三年7.035.515.958.52第四年9.147.557.8810.562.1根据已知求出4个季度消费总量和移动平均以及季节中点：某城区居民过去四年平均每季度猪肉消费量季度序号t季度消费量4个季度消费总量4个季度移动平均季度中点1春3.052夏1.453秋1.964冬4.5411.002.752.505春5.1113.063.273.506夏3.4215.033.764.507秋3.8916.964.245.508冬6.6219.044.766.509春7.0320.965.247.5010夏5.5123.055.768.5011秋5.9525.116.289.5012冬8.5227.016.7510.5013春9.1429.127.2811.5014夏7.5531.167.7912.5015秋7.8833.098.2713.5016冬10.5635.138.7814.50表C-2.12.2根据某城区居民过去四年平均每季度猪肉消费量表作图，并根据散点图做出消费量的趋势线如图：图C-2.2求出趋势线方程为：y=0.501x+1.4992.3估算季节系数。At/Tt计算表季节序号tTtAt/Tt12.001.5322.500.5833.000.6543.501.3054.001.2864.500.7675.000.7885.501.2096.001.17106.500.85117.000.85127.501.14138.001.14148.500.89159.000.88169.501.11表C-2.3.1根据表C-2.3.1得出季节系数如下表：季节系数SI(春)SI(夏)SI(秋)SI(冬)1.280.770.791.19表C-2.3.2计算如下：SI(春)=（A1/T1＋A5/T5＋A9/T9＋A13/T13）/4=1.28SI(夏)=（A2/T2＋A6/T6＋A10/T10＋A14/T14）/4=0.77SI(秋)=（A3/T3＋A7/T7＋A11/T11＋A15/T15）/4=0.79SI(冬)=（A4/T4＋A8/T8＋A12/T12＋A16/T16）/4=1.192.4预测根据季节系数表C-2.3.2预测出下一年猪肉销售量如下：下一年预测值（公斤）春夏秋冬12.798.078.6813.65表C-2.4计算如下：春季：（1.5＋0.5×17）×1.28=12.79（公斤）夏季：（1.5＋0.5×18）×0.77=8.07（公斤）秋季：（1.5＋0.5×19）×0.79=8.68（公斤）冬季：（1.5＋0.5×20）×1.19=13.65（公斤）3.生产运作管理课本95页习题4已知5周的实际销售量为38，41，39，43和44，预测的基数为SA。=35，T。=2.0，取α=0.3，β=0.5，试求这5周的预测值，并对今后3周的需求进行预测。3.1采用二次指数平滑法求出这5周的预测值如下表：采用二次指数平滑预测这五周tAtαAt(1-α)*FtSAtβ(SAt-SAt-1)(1-β)Tt-1TtFt　　α=0.3　35β=0.5　23713811.4025.9037.301.151.002.1539.4524112.3027.6239.921.311.082.3842.3033911.7029.6141.310.701.191.8943.2044312.9030.2443.140.910.941.8645.0054413.2031.5044.700.780.931.7146.41表C-3.13.2二次指数平滑法求今后3周的需求预测值利用为S1,S2估计线性趋势模型的截距a和斜率b：建立线性模型：Yt=43.19＋1.02×t求得今后三周的需求预测值如表C-3.2所示：tAtS1S2截距a斜率b预测值353513835.9035.2724137.4335.9233937.9036.5144339.4337.3954440.8038.4143.191.02644.21745.24846.26表C-3.2