安信估值模型

财务报表预测和估值模型(新会计准则)V3.04年期Tuesday,March16,2010全局参数输入目录 分析 定性数据统计分析pdf销售业绩分析模板建筑结构震害分析销售进度分析表京东商城竞争战略分析 师股票代码6003511预测假设李震龙股价日期4/11/082利润表021-68801171最新报告期20073股东权益变动表lizl1@essences.com.cn货币单位1,000,0004资产负债表报表类型5现金流量表股票简称#NAME?6资本开支股价(元)#NAME?7现金&负债最新股本(千股)#NAME?8估值9财务指标10杜邦分析43Q4一季度报表一季度报表Q1中期报表Q1中期报表Q2三季度报表H三季度报表Q3年度报表Q3年度报表历史年份预测年份年度报表20042005200620072008E2009E2010E2011E资产负债表差额检查#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经营活动营业收入增长率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?30.00%25.00%20.00%15.00%营业成本/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?65.00%65.00%65.00%65.00%营业税率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?3.50%3.50%3.50%3.50%销售费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?17.00%17.00%17.00%17.00%管理费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%实际所得税率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?25.00%25.00%25.00%25.00%投资收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0汇兑收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0营业外收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.001.002.002.00资产处置利得1.000.01.001.00政府补贴0.00.00.00.0其他营业外收入1.001.001.001.00营业外支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?1.002.001.001.00资产处置损失0.01.000.00.0其他营业外支出1.001.001.001.00利润分配法定盈余公积提取比例#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%法定公益金提取比例#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%任意盈余公积提取比例#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?1.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%少数股东权益/股东权益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.00%5.00%5.00%5.00%分红比率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?50.00%50.00%50.00%50.00%营运资金营业现金/营业收入8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%8.00%应收票据周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.500.500.500.50应收帐款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?50.0050.0050.0050.00其他应收款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?15.0015.0015.0015.00存货周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?80.0080.0080.0080.00应付帐款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?50.0050.0050.0050.00应付票据周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.006.006.006.00其他应付款周转天数#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.0020.0020.0020.00△预收帐款/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.40%0.40%0.40%0.40%△预付帐款/营业成本#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.10%0.10%0.10%0.10%△其他流动资产/△营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%△其他流动负债/△营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?10.00%10.00%10.00%10.00%△其他非流动资产/△营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%△其他非流动负债/△营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%坏帐准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.80%6.80%6.80%6.80%存货跌价准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%长期股权投资减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%固定资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%在建工程减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%无形资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%其他资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0资产减值损失#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?其他资产&负债一年内到期非流动资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0长期股权投资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.0020.0020.0020.00生物资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0油气资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0开发支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0商誉#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0长期待摊费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0递延所得税资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.002.002.002.00一年内到期非流动负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.0020.0020.0020.00应付债券#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0递延所得税负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0金融资产和负债发放贷款及垫款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0交易性金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0持有至到期投资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0可供出售金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0投资性房地产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0交易性金融负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0公允价值变动△交易性金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.0△交易性金融负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.0△其他公允价值变动收益0.00.00.00.0公允价值变动收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.0历史年份预测年份年度报表20042005200620072008E2009E2010E2011E营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:营业成本#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营业税费#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?销售费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?管理费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?财务费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?资产减值损失#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:公允价值变动收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.0投资收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0汇兑收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0营业利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:营业外收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.01.02.02.0减:营业外支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?1.02.01.01.0利润总额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:所得税#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净利润(含少数股东损益)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:少数股东损益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?基本EPS#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?稀释EPS#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?应付普通股股利#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLAT&ROIC净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:少数股东损益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:非经常性损益(税后)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.8-0.80.80.8经调整的净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:财务费用(税后)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLAT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:营业成本和税费#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:销售费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:管理费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:资产减值损失#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:公允价值变动收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.0加:投资收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0加:汇兑收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0EBIT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:调整税#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLAT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?折旧和摊销#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?EBITDA#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?ROIC#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经济利润经济利润ROIC#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经济收益利差(ROIC-WACC)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经济利润(EP)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?NOPLAT#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?资本费用(IC*WACC)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?经济利润(EP)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?超额收益经济利润净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?Ke9.80%9.80%9.80%9.80%9.80%9.80%9.80%净资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?超额收益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?财务指标营业收入增长率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?销售费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?管理费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?财务费用率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?三费/营业收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营业利润增长率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净利润增长率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?毛利率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营业利润率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净利润率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?历史年份预测年份年度报表20072008E2009E2010E2011E利润分配表净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:期初未分配利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?可供分配利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:提取法定盈余公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?提取法定公益金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?可供所有者分配利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:提取任意盈余公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?应付普通股股利#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末未分配利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?股东权益变动表期初股本#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?所有者投入/(减少)50.000.00.00.0其他变动增加/(减少)0.00.00.00.0期末股本#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初资本公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?计入权益的公允价值变动#NAME?0.00.00.0权益法股权投资变动净额0.00.00.00.0其他变动增加/(减少)0.00.00.00.0期末资本公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初盈余公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?提取盈余公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末盈余公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初未分配利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?提取公积#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?所有者分配#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末未分配利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初少数股东权益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?少数股东损益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?少数股东权益所有者投入/(减少)0.00.00.00.0少数股东权益所有者分配#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末少数股东权益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?历史年份预测年份年度报表20042005200620072008E2009E2010E2011E资产流动资产货币资金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:营业现金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?超额现金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?交易性金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0应收帐款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?其他应收款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:坏帐准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?应收帐款净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?应收票据#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?预付帐款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?存货#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:存货跌价准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?存货净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?一年内到期非流动资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0其他流动资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?流动资产总额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?非流动资产发放贷款及垫款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0可供出售金融资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0持有至到期投资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0长期股权投资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.020.020.020.0减:长期股权投资减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0长期股权投资净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?20.020.020.020.0投资性房地产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0固定资产原值#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:累积折旧#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?固定资产净值#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:固定资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?固定资产净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?工程物资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?在建工程#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:在建工程减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?在建工程净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?固定资产清理#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.05.05.05.0生物资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0油气资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0无形资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:无形资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?无形资产净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?开发支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0商誉#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0长期待摊费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0递延所得税资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2.02.02.02.0其他非流动资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?非流动资产总额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?资产总额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?负债流动负债短期借款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?交易性金融负债#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?0.00.00.00.0应付票据#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?应付帐款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?其他应付款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME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#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?权益自由现金流(FCFE)净利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:折旧和摊销#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?付息债务的增加/(减少)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:资本支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?营运资本的增加/(减少)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?FCFE#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?历史年份预测年份年度报表20042005200620072008E2009E2010E2011E固定资产原值#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?计提折旧#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?累积折旧#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?原有固定资产平均折旧率#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?4.75%4.75%4.75%4.75%新增固定资产平均折旧率6.33%6.33%6.33%6.33%期初在建工程#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初工程物资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:新增在建工程1.001.001.001.00加:新增工程物资1.001.001.001.00当年转固定资产比例40.00%40.00%40.00%40.00%转固定资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:在建工程减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末在建工程#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末工程物资#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初固定资产净值#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:新增固定资产投资30.0030.0030.0030.00固定资本支出32.032.032.032.0减:折旧#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末固定资产净值#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:固定资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?转固定资产清理#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.05.05.05.0期末固定资产净额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?固定资产处置损益1.0-1.01.01.0直线法折旧初始固定资产原值#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?固定资产残值率5.00%2008E新增固定资产+转固资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?原有固定资产平均折旧年限202009E新增固定资产+转固资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?新增固定资产平均折旧年限152010E新增固定资产+转固资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?2011E新增固定资产+转固资产#NAME?#NAME?无形资产摊销平均年限15期初无形资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:无形资产摊销#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:新增无形资产投资0.100.100.100.10减:新增无形资产摊销0.00.00.00.0减:无形资产减值准备#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末无形资产#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?短期借款利率5.00%长期贷款利率7.00%历史年份预测年份现金存款利率3.00%20072008E2009E2010E2011E资产负债表差额检查#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初货币资金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:经营活动现金净流量#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?加:投资活动现金净流量#NAME?-32.1-32.1-32.1加:融资活动现金净流量#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?减:营业现金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?超额现金(平衡项)0.05.17.527.1最低超额现金0.00.00.00.0期初短期借款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?短期借款(平衡项)0.011.911.811.7最低短期借款余额300.0300.0300.0300.0短期借款增加/(减少)#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末短期借款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?短期借款利息费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期初长期借款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?长期借款增加/(减少)#NAME?0.00.00.00.0期末长期借款#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?长期借款利息费用#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?期末货币资金#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?利息收入#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?利息支出#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?WACC无风险利率3.50%账面价值估计市场价值目标权数税前成本税后成本WACC风险溢价7.00%短期债务#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?5.00%3.75%#NAME?β系数0.90长期债务#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?7.00%5.25%#NAME?Rm10.50%债务总额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?Ke9.80%股东权益#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?9.80%9.80%#NAME?WACC#NAME?资本总额#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?3/16/10预测年份终值2008E2009E2010E2011E2011EEuqityValuation经济利润DCF永续增长率2.00%经济利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?预期的ROIC#NAME?贴现#NAME?#NAME?WACC#NAME?经济利润附加值#NAME?Ke9.80%公司OPFCFDCFOPFCF#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?贴现#NAME?#NAME?经营价值#NAME?超额利润超额利润#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?贴现#NAME?#NAME?超额利润现值#NAME?权益FCFEDCFFCFE#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?贴现#NAME?#NAME?权益价值#NAME?DDM股利#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?贴现#NAME?#NAME?权益价值#NAME?EVA估值主要假设公司OPFCF估值主要假设显性预测#NAME?#NAME?无风险利率3.50%显性预测#NAME?#NAME?无风险利率3.50%永续价值#NAME?#NAME?风险溢价7.00%永续价值#NAME?#NAME?风险溢价7.00%经济利润附加值#NAME?#NAME?β系数0.90经营价值#NAME?#NAME?β系数0.90加:投入资本和非营业资产#NAME?Rm10.50%加:非营业资产#NAME?Rm10.50%企业价值#NAME?Ke9.80%企业价值#NAME?Ke9.80%减:付息债务#NAME?Kd7.00%减:付息债务#NAME?Kd7.00%减:少数股东权益#NAME?D/DE#NAME?减:少数股东权益#NAME?D/DE#NAME?权益价值#NAME?E/DE#NAME?权益价值#NAME?E/DE#NAME?总股本#NAME?WACC#NAME?总股本#NAME?WACC#NAME?每股权益价值#NAME?永续增长率2.00%每股权益价值#NAME?永续增长率2.00%股价#NAME?股价#NAME?WACC永续增长率WACC永续增长率0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%12.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?12.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?11.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?11.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?10.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?10.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?9.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?9.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?8.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?8.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?7.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?7.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?6.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?AE估值主要假设权益FCFE估值主要假设显性预测#NAME?#NAME?无风险利率3.50%显性预测#NAME?#NAME?无风险利率3.50%永续价值#NAME?#NAME?风险溢价7.00%永续价值#NAME?#NAME?风险溢价7.00%超额利润附加值#NAME?#NAME?β系数0.90权益价值#NAME?#NAME?β系数0.90加:净资产#NAME?Rm10.50%总股本#NAME?Rm10.50%权益价值#NAME?Ke9.80%每股权益价值#NAME?Ke9.80%总股本#NAME?永续增长率2.00%股价#NAME?永续增长率2.00%每股权益价值#NAME?股价#NAME?Ke永续增长率Ke永续增长率0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%0.00%1.00%2.00%3.00%4.00%5.00%12.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?12.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?11.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?11.00%#NAME?#NAME?#NAME?