预测模型2

冰淇淋销量线性回归预测模型年份序号消费量预测值|PE|(%)e2199217416602718.73351930078.71199329720830014.60942016503.2719943119341057311.40271851776.64199541170012846-9.79861314316.34199651245615120-21.38477095152.40199761508417393-15.30705331061.19199871809019666-8.71282484234.491999822050219390.501712236.382000925524242135.13781719722.2720011027828264864.82301801354.4220021129520287592.5776578982.64200312310322004133330620051435579200615378522007164012520081742399200918446722010194694520112049218MAPESDE20122151491201322537650.23481616.6453SUMMARYOUTPUT回归统计MultipleR0.9777746638RSquare0.9560432932AdjustedRSquare0.9511592147 标准 excel标准偏差excel标准偏差函数exl标准差函数国标检验抽样标准表免费下载红头文件格式标准下载 误差1704.0937234148观测值11方差分析dfSSMSFSignificanceF回归分析1568436392.1454546568436392.1454546195.74691247830.0000002062残差926135418.763636362903935.418181818总计10594571810.909091Coefficients标准误差tStatP-valueLower95%Upper95%下限95.0%上限95.0%Intercept3753.49090909091101.98593142463.40611508920.00779743441260.62554611216246.35627206981260.62554611216246.3562720698XVariable12273.2363636364162.478961384413.99095824020.00000020621905.6834180882640.78930918481905.6834180882640.7893091848RESIDUALOUTPUT观测值预测Y残差标准残差16026.72727272731389.27272727270.859355337328299.96363636361420.03636363640.8783846427310573.21360.80.8417431078412846.4363636364-1146.4363636364-0.7091452878515119.6727272727-2663.6727272727-1.6476544382617392.9090909091-2308.9090909091-1.4282101071719666.1454545455-1576.1454545455-0.974948246821939.3818181818110.61818181820.0684245239924212.61818181821311.38181818180.81117475541026485.85454545451342.14545454550.83020406081128759.0909090909760.90909090910.4706716512冰淇淋销量二次指数平滑预测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值预测值yts(1)s(2)atbtFt+11992174169690.0010298.009082.00-2432.001993297209714.009830.809597.20-467.206650.00199431193411490.0011158.1611821.841327.369130.00199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97399.8713149.20199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07590.6912157.84199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031902.2013034.77199871809017377.3016712.0218042.572661.0916904.23199982205021115.4620234.7721996.153522.7520703.66200092552424642.2923760.7925523.803526.0225518.902001102782827190.8626504.8427876.872744.0629049.812002112952029054.1728544.3129564.042039.4630620.9320031231603.5020041335682.4220051437721.8820061539761.3520071641800.8120081743840.2720091845879.7320101947919.1920112049958.6620122151998.1220132254037.58冰淇淋销量二次指数平滑预测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值预测值yts(1)s(2)atbtFt+11992174169690.0010298.009082.00-1488.551993297209714.009830.809597.20-285.967593.45199431193411490.0011158.1611821.84812.449311.24199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97244.7512634.28199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07361.5512002.72199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031164.2812805.62199871809017377.3016712.0218042.571628.7716166.31199982205021115.4620234.7721996.152156.1719671.34200092552424642.2923760.7925523.802158.1624152.312001102782827190.8626504.8427876.871679.5527681.962002112952029054.1728544.3129564.041248.2929556.4220031230812.3320041333308.9120051434557.2020061535805.4920071637053.7920081738302.0820091839550.3720101940798.6620112042046.9520122143295.2420132244543.53冰淇淋销量二次指数平滑预测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值预测值yts(1)s(2)atbtFt+11992174169690.0010298.009082.00-1563.431993297209714.009830.809597.20-300.347518.57199431193411490.0011158.1611821.84853.309296.86199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97257.0612675.14199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07379.7312015.03199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031222.8412823.81199871809017377.3016712.0218042.571710.7016224.88199982205021115.4620234.7721996.152264.6219753.27200092552424642.2923760.7925523.802266.7224260.772001102782827190.8626504.8427876.871764.0427790.522002112952029054.1728544.3129564.041311.0829640.9120031230875.1220041333497.2920051434808.3720061536119.4520071637430.5320081738741.6220091840052.7020101941363.7820112042674.8620122143985.9520132245297.03冰淇淋销量二次指数平滑预测年份序号消费量一次平滑二次平滑At值Bt值预测值yts(1)s(2)atbtFt+11992174169690.0010298.009082.00-1643.851993297209714.009830.809597.20-315.797438.15199431193411490.0011158.1611821.84897.209281.41199541170011658.0011558.0311757.97270.2812719.04199651245612296.4012148.7312444.07399.2712028.25199761508414526.4814050.9315002.031285.7512843.34199871809017377.3016712.0218042.571798.7016287.78199982205021115.4620234.7721996.152381.1219841.27200092552424642.2923760.7925523.802383.3324377.262001102782827190.8626504.8427876.871854.7827907.122002112952029054.1728544.3129564.041378.5329731.6520031230942.5620041333699.6120051435078.1420061536456.6620071637835.1920081739213.7120091840592.2420101941970.7620112043349.2920122144727.8120132246106.34冰淇淋销量误差分析年份序号消费量预测值(xx)预测值(yy)预测值(zz)Ft(xx)Ft(yy)Ft(zz)yt0.710.720.73|PE|(%)e2|PE|(%)e2|PE|(%)e21992174161993297207593.457518.577438.1521.884522222.2422.654846287.7623.485206847.8719943119349311.249296.869281.4121.986878862.7822.106954522.4522.237036247.46199541170012634.2812675.1412719.047.99872871.398.33950903.598.711038436.48199651245612002.7212015.0312028.253.64205465.263.54194455.803.43182968.48199761508412805.6212823.8112843.3415.105191018.5714.985108478.2114.855020560.56199871809016166.3116224.8816287.7810.633700582.9510.313478689.679.963248000.67199982205019671.3419753.2719841.2710.795658013.8210.425274958.4610.024878482.26200092552424152.3124260.7724377.265.371881528.004.951595747.464.491315003.342001102782827681.9627790.5227907.120.5221327.460.131404.720.286260.202002112952029556.4229640.9129731.650.121326.730.4114618.920.7244796.2920031230812.3330875.1230942.5620041333308.9133497.2933699.6120051434557.2034808.3735078.1420061535805.4936119.4536456.6620071637053.7937430.5337835.1920081738302.0838741.6239213.7120091839550.3740052.7040592.2420101940798.6641363.7841970.7620112042046.9542674.8643349.29MAPESDEMAPESDEMAPESDE20122143295.2443985.9544727.8120132244543.5345297.0346106.349.801792.999.781777.029.821763.13冰淇淋销量与5盎司纸杯需求量的线性回归预测模型年份序号冰淇淋消费量xi(千吨)纸杯需求量yi(百万只)预测值Y(百万只)|PE|(%)e219921741617.9620.0199-11.46914.243019932972026.1725.40992.90460.5778199431193427.1230.5893-12.792512.0363199541170031.6830.04195.17072.6833199651245632.1531.81051.05590.1153199761508442.3637.958510.390719.3732199871809045.3344.99080.74830.1151199982205052.2854.2549-3.77753.9001200092552464.262.38202.83183.30512001102782865.7567.7720-3.07534.08862002112952071.9671.73030.31920.05282003123103275.26832004133330680.58632005143557985.90442006153785291.22242007164012596.540520081742399101.858520091844672107.176620101946945112.494620112049218117.8127MAPESDE20122151491123.130720132253765128.4488-0.69942.2470SUMMARYOUTPUT回归统计MultipleR0.9923309455RSquare0.9847207053AdjustedRSquare0.9830230059dfSSMSFSignificanceF回归分析13254.01469124043254.0146912404580.03242471970.0000000018残差950.49050875965.6100565288总计103304.5052Coefficients标准误差tStatP-valueLower95%Upper95%下限95.0%上限95.0%Intercept2.67073695191.83421812551.45606289390.1793557176-1.47855271036.8200266141-1.47855271036.8200266141XVariable10.00233941680.000097136324.08386232980.00000000180.00211967920.00255915430.00211967920.0025591543RESIDUALOUTPUT观测值预测Y残差标准残差120.0198516507-2.0598516507-0.9167081036225.40986786790.76013213210.3382861504330.5893365765-3.4693365765-1.5439796126430.04191305441.63808694560.7290076335531.81051212570.33948787430.1510843198637.95849937334.40150062671.9588261566744.99078615660.33921384340.1509623661854.2548765298-1.9748765298-0.8788911171962.38201035711.81798964290.80907080721067.7720265743-2.0220265743-0.89987458351171.73031973370.22968026630.102215983月度需求统计 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 19971998199920002001200211.411.501.711.922.102.2321.852.132.312.822.983.2033.012.813.814.674.845.0244.204.525.206.386.507.1554.334.204.725.916.036.7864.504.665.216.556.727.2275.105.366.127.467.678.5485.305.706.517.998.129.6194.524.765.346.687.359.57103.543.804.455.575.686.02112.843.403.924.783.984.38121.762.492.983.293.782.241.502.132.814.524.204.665.365.704.763.803.402.491.712.313.815.204.725.216.126.515.344.453.922.981.922.824.676.385.916.557.467.996.685.574.783.292.102.984.846.506.036.727.678.127.355.683.983.782.233.205.027.156.787.228.549.619.576.024.382.24月需求量预测表年份月份序号需求量年平均值趋势值Fi季节增量平均增量b=0.0411a=3.26281997111.413.533.22-1.81-0.18221.853.18-1.330.60333.013.14-0.132.12444.203.101.103.79554.333.061.273.50664.503.021.484.03775.102.982.134.97885.302.932.375.50994.522.891.634.7110103.542.850.693.2311112.842.810.032.3112121.762.77-1.011.2219981131.503.782.73-1.23-0.182142.132.69-0.560.603152.812.650.162.124164.522.611.923.795174.202.561.643.506184.662.522.144.037195.362.482.884.978205.702.443.265.509214.762.402.364.7110223.802.361.443.2311233.402.321.082.3112242.492.280.211.2219991251.714.362.24-0.52-0.182262.312.190.120.603273.812.151.662.124285.202.113.093.795294.722.072.653.506305.212.033.184.037316.121.994.134.978326.511.954.565.509335.341.913.434.7110344.451.872.593.2311353.921.822.102.3112362.981.781.201.2220001371.925.341.740.18-0.182382.821.701.120.603394.671.663.012.124406.381.624.763.795415.911.584.333.506426.551.545.014.037437.461.505.974.978447.991.456.545.509456.681.415.274.7110465.571.374.203.2311474.781.333.452.3112483.291.292.001.2220011492.105.481.250.85-0.182502.981.211.770.603514.841.173.672.124526.501.135.383.795536.031.084.953.506546.721.045.684.037557.671.006.674.978568.120.967.165.509577.350.926.434.7110585.680.884.803.2311593.980.843.142.3112603.780.802.981.2220021612.236.000.751.48-0.182623.200.712.490.603635.020.674.352.124647.150.636.523.795656.780.596.193.506667.220.556.674.037678.540.518.034.978689.610.479.145.509699.570.439.144.7110706.020.385.643.2311714.380.344.042.3112722.240.301.941.22预测20031736.092746.913758.4747610.185779.9367810.5077911.4888012.0698111.3010829.8611838.9812847.94预测20041856.582867.403878.9648810.6758910.4369010.9979111.9789212.5599311.80109410.3511959.4712968.43