经济学--Supply and Demand ppt课件

Unit2SupplyandDemandParttwoCaseStudy REASONSTOBECHEERFULABOUTCOMMODITIES Commoditypriceshavemorethandoubledoverthepastfouryears,leadingmanyinvestorstoaskthemselveswhethercommoditiesarestillworthinvestingin.goods,commodity,product products是产品， goods是物品， commodity是商品 大宗商品bulkcommodity Thegovernmentincreasedpricesonseveralbasiccommoditieslikebreadandmeat. 政府提高了面包、肉类等几种基本商品的价格。 Toanswerthisquestion,wemustrevisitthemainargumentsforinvestmentincommodities.ThemostpopularargumentisChina.Chinaisbecominganeconomicpowerhouse.Givenitssheersize,thisissaidtoleadtoavirtuallyinsatiabledemandforjustabouteverycommodityunderthesun.revisit re- 表 关于同志近三年现实表现材料材料类招标技术评分表图表与交易pdf视力表打印pdf用图表说话 pdf 示“又，再”之义 reviewn.复习； 回顾 Reheatv.重新加热 vt.重游； 再访； 重临； 回到 n.重访问； 再参观 Nowwewishto revisit informationwehavepreviouslygivenyou. 现在我们想要重温我们先前已经给你的资料.powerhouse n.强大的集团[组织]； NigeriaisthemostpopulousAfricancountryandaneconomic powerhouse forthecontinent. 尼日利亚是非洲人口最稠密的国家，也是非洲大陆的经济强国。  Chinaisnowa Powerhouse intheInternationalarena. 现在中国在国际舞台上占有一席非常重要的位置.sheer [ʃɪr]adj.完全的，全然的； 极薄的； 几乎垂直地，陡峭的； 绝对的insatiable [ɪn’seʃəbəl] adj.无法满足的，贪得无厌的； 贪得无厌的； 不知足 satiable ['seɪʃɪrbəl]adj.可满足的词根：sati=enough,fulloffood,表示"足够,饱足" Thepublichasan insatiable appetiteforstoriesaboutthefamous. 公众对名人有着难以满足的好奇心。underthesun 全世界的； 在世界上； 到底； 究竟 Wesatthereforhourstalkingabouteverything under the sun. 我们在那儿坐了几个小时，谈天说地。 Where under the sun couldIhaveput the purse? 我究竟把钱包放在哪儿了? 在太阳底下inthesun Amysatoutsideinthesun.埃米坐在外面太阳底下。 Thesecondmostpopularargumentrelatestothesupplyside.Aftermanyyearsofunder-investmentmanycommodityproducersareinbadshape.Theyareunabletomeettherecentincreaseindemand;asituationthatissaidtocontinueformanyyearstocome.under- 表示“在…下，次于”之义beinbadshape 情况还处于混乱状态，健康情况不佳 It is understandable that girls all wish to be in greatshape. 女孩子们都想有好身材是可以理解的. He is in bad shape.   他身处困境. Ned's company is in bad shape. They are almost bankrupt.   耐德的公司经营状况很糟糕, 他们几乎要面临破产的边缘. Athirdargumentisfoundina2005Yaleresearchpaperthatshowsovertheperiod1959-2004aportfolioof34differentcommoditieswouldhavegeneratedaveragereturnscomparabletostocks,butwithnegativecorrelationwithstocksandbonds.Thiscombinationmakescommoditiestheperfectdiversifierforanytraditionalstock/bondportfolio.portfolio [pɔ:rt’foʊlioʊ]证券投资组合Mystockbrokermanagesmy portfolio forme.我的证券经纪人替我管理投资组合.correlation n.相互关系； 相关性 Ahigh correlation existsinAmericabetweeneducationandeconomicposition.教育和经济地位在美国有极密切的关系. the correlation betweensmokinganddisease. 吸烟与疾病的联系diversify vt.&vi.使多样化，多样化； Farmersarebeingencouragedto diversify intonewcrops. Ourcompanyistryingto diversify. 我们公司正力图往多样化方面发展. Thekeywordhereis diversify;don'tputallyoureggsinonebasket. Thesefirmshavebeengivenatoughlessonintheneedto diversify theirmarkets. 这些公司因缺乏多元化市场而遭受惨痛的教训。 diversifier 分散经营者 Howmuchtruthisthereinthesearguments?OnereasonwhyChinaisdoingwellistheglobaleconomyhasdonewelloverthelastcoupleofyears.Itisontracktogrow5.1percentthisyearalone.AnotherreasonisthemajorityofChina'spopulationispoor,solabourcostsareminimal.Asaresult,productionismovedfromthewesttoChina. trackn.小路，小道； 痕迹，踪迹； 轨道，音轨； 方针，路线 Itisontrackto上道，步入轨道，有望 Takentogether,thismeansChinaisalotmoredependentontheglobaleconomythanmanybelieveandasignificantchunkofthegrowthinChina'sdemandforcommoditiesreflectsashiftinmanufacturinglocation. Havingbecomeasuperpowerintheglobalcommoditiesmarkets,itisonlyamatteroftimebeforeChinawillforceitssupplierstolowerprices/andincreaseitsownproductionofvariouscommodities/aswellasshiftproductionfromlow-pricedtohigher-pricedagriculturalcommodities.Intime,Chinacouldwellbecomeanetexporterofavarietyofcommodities.* 已经成为全球大宗商品市场超级大国的中国，早晚会迫使供应商降低价格，并提高各种大宗商品的国内产量，同时将生产从低价农业商品转移到高价农业商品上来。 Finally,China'sfuturegrowthcouldeasilybeshort-circuited. short-circuited发生短路 最后，中国经济未来的增长很容易受挫。 Apartfrominadequateinfrastructure,apoorlyfunctioningequitymarket,corruptionandseriousbadloanproblems,China'seconomicexpansionhasatremendousimpactontheenvironment-waterisinshortsupply,millionsofpeoplearemigratingfromruralareastothebigcities,inequalityisgrowing. 除了基础设施不足、证券市场运行欠佳、腐败及严重的不良贷款问 题 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 之外，中国的经济扩张对环境有着巨大的影响：水资源短缺、数百万人从农村迁徙到大城市、不平等状况不断加剧。 Inaddition,ifinflationinChinapicksup,thecentralbankwillhavetoraiseinterestratesandahardlandingmaybeunavoidable. hardlanding：硬着陆 softlanding：软着陆 此外，如果中国通胀抬头，央行将不得不调高利率，那样的话，经济硬着陆可能无法避免。 供应问题 Thesupplysideargumentmakesmoresense,asitistruethatproductionofmanycommoditiesisrunninglowrelativetodemand.Highcommoditypriceswillstimulatethedevelopmentofadditionalproductioncapacityandthesearchforalternatives,aswellasslowingdowndemand. relativeto 关于…的，和…比较起来 Housepricesnowlookcheap relative to earnings. 相对收入而言房价现在看起来比较便宜。 capacityn.容量； 才能； 性能； 生产能力 theamountofspare capacity intheeconomy...  经济中的剩余生产能力 productioncapacity生产量，生产能力，产能 Thecompany production capacity andtechnologicalstandardshavereachedworld-classenterpriselevel. 目前公司产能和技术水平均已达到国际一流企业的水平。 However,theseprocessestaketime,becausecommodityproducerswillneedtobeconvincedthatpriceswillstabiliseatarelativelyhighlevelbeforetheyembarkonmulti-billiondollarexpansionprojects.Asaresult,assumingdemanddoesn'tsuddenlystall,pricesofatleastanumberofcommoditieswillremainhigh. beconvinced服气；心折；确信；信服 embark着手，从事 Thegovernment embarkedonaprogrammeofeconomicreform. 政府开始实施一项经济改革计划。 expansionn.扩大； 扩张； aperiodofrapideconomic expansion 经济迅猛发展期 expansionarypolicy：扩张性政策 Finally,contrarytotheYalepaper'sargument,morerecentresearchhasshownthatmostcommoditiesdonotofferaconsistentriskpremium.Itdoesconfirmthatcommoditiesareuncorrelatedwithstocksandbonds,however. riskpremium风险溢价，风险差额 Thisisanimportantpointasitmeansthataddingcommoditiestoamoretraditionalportfoliowillbehighlyeffectiveinreducingvolatility. Ofcourse,withoutasignificantriskpremiumthiswillalsoreducethatportfolio'sexpectedreturn.Aslongastheexpectedreturnoncommoditiesisn'ttoolow,however,volatilitywillcomedownalotmorethanexpectedreturn,makingitaworthwhiletrade-off. 当然，没有很高的风险溢价，这种做法也将降低投资组合的预期回报。但是，只要大宗商品的预期回报率不是太低，波动性降低的程度就会远远高于预期回报的降幅，这样做也就值得了。 trade-offn.交易； 权衡 trade–offbetweensth.andsth.（在需要而又相互对立的两者间的）权衡，协调 the trade-off betweeninflationandunemployment. 在通货膨胀与失业之间求得平衡 Thereisatrade-offbetweenthebenefitsofthedrugsandtheriskofsideeffects. Infact,duetothezerocorrelation,commoditiesareaworthwhilediversifierunderavarietyofassumptionswithrespecttotheirexpectedreturn.Theonlytimewhenitdoesn'tworkiswhentheriskpremiumoncommoditiesishighlynegative.Inthatcasethereductioninvolatilityisnotworththelossinexpectedreturn. Thistakesusbacktotheprospectsforcommodities.Althoughthereareseriousshortcomingsinthemainargumentsforafurthercommoditybullmarket,pricesdonothavetodropsubstantially. bullmarket行情看涨的市场，股市中的牛市 bearmarket熊市 Assetmanagersandbanksarerollingoutawiderangeofcommodity-linkedinvestmentproducts:funds,ETFs,trackers,andallkindsofstructuredproducts.Giveninvestors'appetitefortheseproducts,itisnotunlikelythatincreasedinvestment/speculativedemandwillkeeppriceshigh,leavingthecaseforcommoditiesintact. speculativeadj.投机的 Thebosshasputallhismoneyintothat speculative enterprise.这个老板把他的全部财产都投到那个投机事业中. 考虑到投资者对于这些产品的兴趣，高涨的投资/投机需求使价格保持高位，也不是不可能的事情，从而使大宗商品市场维持目前的格局。 Underthisscenario/commoditiesareprimarilyabet/onthemadnessofcrowdsratherthanafundamentallyjustifiableinvestment. 在上述情况下，从根本上讲，投资于大宗商品就成了押注于参与者疯狂程度的赌博，而非有基本面支撑的投资。 scenario[sə’nærioʊ]n.（行动的） 方案 气瓶 现场处置方案 .pdf气瓶 现场处置方案 .doc见习基地管理方案.doc关于群访事件的化解方案建筑工地扬尘治理专项方案下载 ； 剧情概要； 分镜头剧本；设想;可能发生的情况 Under-this-scenario 在这种情况下 Letmesuggestapossible scenario .我来设想一种可能出现的情况。*