美国安全委员会NSC68号文件

AReporttothePresidentPursuanttothePresident'sDirectiveofJanuary31,1950TOPSECRET[Washington,]April7,1950ContentsTermsofReference????????????????Analysis????????????????I.BackgroundofthePresentWorldCrisis????????????????II.TheFundamentalPurposeoftheUnitedStates????????????????III.TheFundamentalDesignoftheKremlin????????????????IV.TheUnderlyingConflictintheRealmofIdeasandValuesBetweentheU.S.PurposeandtheKremlinDesign????????????????1.NatureoftheConflict2.Objectives3.Means4.V.????SovietIntentionsandCapabilities--ActualandPotential????????????????VI.U.S.IntentionsandCapabilities--ActualandPotential????????????????VII.PresentRisks????????????????VIII.AtomicArmaments????????????????A.MilitaryEvaluationofU.S.????IX.PossibleCoursesofAction????????????????Introduction????????????????TheRoleofNegotiation????????????????A.TheFirstCourse--ContinuationofCurrentPolicies,withCurrentandCurrentlyProjectedProgramsforCarryingOutTheseProjectsB.TheSecondCourse--IsolationC.TheThirdCourse--WarD.TheRemainingCourseofAction--ARapidBuild-upofPolitical,Economic,andMilitaryStrengthintheFreeWorldConclusionsRecommendationsTERMSOFREFERENCE????????????????ThefollowingreportissubmittedinresponsetothePresident'sdirectiveofJanuary31whichreads:????????????????ThatthePresidentdirecttheSecretaryofStateandtheSecretaryofDefensetoundertakeareexaminationofourobjectivesinpeaceandwarandoftheeffectoftheseobjectivesonourstrategicplans,inthelightoftheprobablefissionbombcapabilityandpossiblethermonuclearbombcapabilityoftheSovietUnion.????????????????Thedocumentwhichrecommendedthatsuchadirectivebeissuedreadsinpart:????????????????Itmustbeconsideredwhetheradecisiontoproceedwithaprogramdirectedtowarddeterminingfeasibilityprejudgesthemorefundamentaldecisions(a)astowhether,intheeventthatatestofathermonuclearweaponprovessuccessful,suchweaponsshouldbestockpiled,or(b)ifstockpiled,theconditionsunderwhichtheymightbeusedinwar.Ifatestofathermonuclearweaponprovessuccessful,thepressurestoproduceandstockpilesuchweaponstobeheldforthesamepurposesforwhichfissionbombsarethenbeingheldwillbegreatlyincreased.Thequestionofusepolicycanbeadequatelyassessedonlyasapartofageneralreexaminationofthiscountry'sstrategicplansanditsobjectivesinpeaceandwar.Suchreexaminationwouldneedtoconsidernationalpolicynotonlywithrespecttopossiblethermonuclearweapons,butalsowithrespecttofissionweapons--viewedinthelightoftheprobablefissionbombcapabilityandthepossiblethermonuclearbombcapabilityoftheSovietUnion????I.BackgroundofthePresentCrisis????????????????Withinthepastthirty-fiveyearstheworldhasexperiencedtwoglobalwarsoftremendousviolence.Ithaswitnessedtworevolutions--theRussianandtheChinese--ofextremescopeandintensity.Ithasalsoseenthecollapseoffiveempires--theOttoman,theAustro-Hungarian,German,Italian,andJapanese--andthedrasticdeclineoftwomajorimperialsystems,theBritishandtheFrench.Duringthespanofonegeneration,theinternationaldistributionofpowerhasbeenfundamentallyaltered.Forseveralcenturiesithadprovedimpossibleforanyonenationtogainsuchpreponderantstrengththatacoalitionofothernationscouldnotintimefaceitwithgreaterstrength.Theinternationalscenewasmarkedbyrecurringperiodsofviolenceandwar,butasystemofsovereignandindependentstateswasmaintained,overwhichnostatewasabletoachievehegemony.????????????????Twocomplexsetsoffactorshavenowbasicallyalteredthishistoricdistributionofpower.First,thedefeatofGermanyandJapanandthedeclineoftheBritishandFrenchEmpireshaveinteractedwiththedevelopmentoftheUnitedStatesandtheSovietUnioninsuchawaythatpowerincreasinglygravitatedtothesetwocenters.Second,theSovietUnion,unlikepreviousaspirantstohegemony,isanimatedbyanewfanaticfaith,anti-theticaltoourown,andseekstoimposeitsabsoluteauthorityovertherestoftheworld.Conflicthas,therefore,becomeendemicandiswaged,onthepartoftheSovietUnion,byviolentornon-violentmethodsinaccordancewiththedictatesofexpediency.Withthedevelopmentofincreasinglyterrifyingweaponsofmassdestruction,everyindividualfacestheever-presentpossibilityofannihilationshouldtheconflictenterthephaseoftotalwar.????????????????Ontheonehand,thepeopleoftheworldyearnforrelieffromtheanxietyarisingfromtheriskofatomicwar.Ontheotherhand,anysubstantialfurtherextensionoftheareaunderthedominationoftheKremlinwouldraisethepossibilitythatnocoalitionadequatetoconfronttheKremlinwithgreaterstrengthcouldbeassembled.ItisinthiscontextthatthisRepublicanditscitizensintheascendancyoftheirstrengthstandintheirdeepestperil.????????????????Theissuesthatfaceusaremomentous,involvingthefulfillmentordestructionnotonlyofthisRepublicbutofcivilizationitself.Theyareissueswhichwillnotawaitourdeliberations.WithconscienceandresolutionthisGovernmentandthepeopleitrepresentsmustnowtakenewandfatefuldecisions.????????????????II.FundamentalPurposeoftheUnitedStates????????????????ThefundamentalpurposeoftheUnitedStatesislaiddowninthePreambletotheConstitution:"...toformamoreperfectUnion,establishjustice,insuredomesticTranquility,provideforthecommondefence,promotethegeneralWelfare,andsecuretheBlessingsofLibertytoourselvesandourPosterity."Inessence,thefundamentalpurposeistoassuretheintegrityandvitalityofourfreesociety,whichisfoundeduponthedignityandworthoftheindividual.????????????????Threerealitiesemergeasaconsequenceofthispurpose:Ourdeterminationtomaintaintheessentialelementsofindividualfreedom,assetforthintheConstitutionandBillofRights;ourdeterminationtocreateconditionsunderwhichourfreeanddemocraticsystemcanliveandprosper;andourdeterminationtofightifnecessarytodefendourwayoflife,forwhichasintheDeclarationofIndependence,"withafirmrelianceontheprotectionofDivineProvidence,wemutuallypledgetoeachotherourlives,ourFortunes,andoursacredHonor."????????????????III.FundamentalDesignoftheKremlin????????????????ThefundamentaldesignofthosewhocontroltheSovietUnionandtheinternationalcommunistmovementistoretainandsolidifytheirabsolutepower,firstintheSovietUnionandsecondintheareasnowundertheircontrol.InthemindsoftheSovietleaders,however,achievementofthisdesignrequiresthedynamicextensionoftheirauthorityandtheultimateeliminationofanyeffectiveoppositiontotheirauthority.????????????????Thedesign,therefore,callsforthecompletesubversionorforcibledestructionofthemachineryofgovernmentandstructureofsocietyinthecountriesofthenon-SovietworldandtheirreplacementbyanapparatusandstructuresubservienttoandcontrolledfromtheKremlin.TothatendSovieteffortsarenowdirectedtowardthedominationoftheEurasianlandmass.TheUnitedStates,astheprincipalcenterofpowerinthenon-SovietworldandthebulwarkofoppositiontoSovietexpansion,istheprincipalenemywhoseintegrityandvitalitymustbesubvertedordestroyedbyonemeansoranotheriftheKremlinistoachieveitsfundamentaldesign.????????????????IV.TheUnderlyingConflictintheRealmofideasandValuesbetweentheU.S.PurposeandtheKremlinDesign????????????????A.NATUREOFCONFLICT????????????????TheKremlinregardstheUnitedStatesastheonlymajorthreattotheconflictbetweenideaofslaveryunderthegrimoligarchyoftheKremlin,whichhascometoacrisiswiththepolarizationofpowerdescribedinSectionI,andtheexclusivepossessionofatomicweaponsbythetwoprotagonists.Theideaoffreedom,moreover,ispeculiarlyandintolerablysubversiveoftheideaofslavery.Buttheconverseisnottrue.Theimplacablepurposeoftheslavestatetoeliminatethechallengeoffreedomhasplacedthetwogreatpowersatoppositepoles.Itisthisfactwhichgivesthepresentpolarizationofpowerthequalityofcrisis.????????????????Thefreesocietyvaluestheindividualasanendinhimself,requiringofhimonlythatmeasureofself-disciplineandself-restraintwhichmaketherightsofeachindividualcompatiblewiththerightsofeveryotherindividual.Thefreedomoftheindividualhasasitscounterpart,therefore,thenegativeresponsibilityoftheindividualnottoexercisehisfreedominwaysinconsistentwiththefreedomofotherindividualsandthepositiveresponsibilitytomakeconstructiveuseofhisfreedominthebuildingofajustsociety.????????????????Fromthisideaoffreedomwithresponsibilityderivesthemarvelousdiversity,thedeeptolerance,thelawfulnessofthefreesociety.Thisistheexplanationofthestrengthoffreemen.Itconstitutestheintegrityandthevitalityofafreeanddemocraticsystem.Thefreesocietyattemptstocreateandmaintainanenvironmentinwhicheveryindividualhastheopportunitytorealizehiscreativepowers.Italsoexplainswhythefreesocietytoleratesthosewithinitwhowouldusetheirfreedomtodestroyit.Bythesametoken,inrelationsbetweennations,theprimerelianceofthefreesocietyisonthestrengthandappealofitsidea,anditfeelsnocompulsionsoonerorlatertobringallsocietiesintoconformitywithit.????????????????Forthefreesocietydoesnotfear,itwelcomes,diversity.Itderivesitsstrengthfromitshospitalityeventoantipatheticideas.Itisamarketforfreetradeinideas,secureinitsfaiththatfreemenwilltakethebestwares,andgrowtoafullerandbetterrealizationoftheirpowersinexercisingtheirchoice.????????????????Theideaoffreedomisthemostcontagiousideainhistory,morecontagiousthantheideaofsubmissiontoauthority.Forthebreadthoffreedomcannotbetoleratedinasocietywhichhascomeunderthedominationofanindividualorgroupofindividualswithawilltoabsolutepower.Wherethedespotholdsabsolutepower--theabsolutepoweroftheabsolutelypowerfulwill--allotherwillsmustbesubjugatedinanactofwillingsubmission,adegradationwilledbytheindividualuponhimselfunderthecompulsionofapervertedfaith.Itisthefirstarticleofthisfaiththathefindsandcanonlyfindthemeaningofhisexistenceinservingtheendsofthesystem.ThesystembecomesGod,andsubmissiontothewillofGodbecomessubmissiontothewillofthesystem.Itisnotenoughtoyieldoutwardlytothesystem--evenGandhiannon-violenceisnotacceptable--forthespiritofresistanceandthedevotiontoahigherauthoritymightthenremain,andtheindividualwouldnotbewhollysubmissive.????????????????ThesamecompulsionwhichdemandstotalpoweroverallmenwithintheSovietstatewithoutasingleexception,demandstotalpoweroverallCommunistPartiesandallstatesunderSovietdomination.ThusStalinhassaidthatthetheoryandtacticsofLeninismasexpoundedbytheBolshevikpartyaremandatoryfortheproletarianpartiesofallcountries.AtrueinternationalistisdefinedasonewhounhesitatinglyupholdsthepositionoftheSovietUnionandinthesatellitestatestruepatriotismisloveoftheSovietUnion.Bythesametokenthe"peacepolicy"oftheSovietUnion,describedataPartyCongressas"amoreadvantageousformoffightingcapitalism,"isadevicetodivideandimmobilizethenon-Communistworld,andthepeacetheSovietUnionseeksisthepeaceoftotalconformitytoSovietpolicy.????????????????Theantipathyofslaverytofreedomexplainstheironcurtain,theisolation,theautarchyofthesocietywhoseendisabsolutepower.Theexistenceandpersistenceoftheideaoffreedomisapermanentandcontinuousthreattothefoundationoftheslavesociety;anditthereforeregardsasintolerablethelongcontinuedexistenceoffreedomintheworld.Whatisnew,whatmakesthecontinuingcrisis,isthepolarizationofpowerwhichnowinescapablyconfrontstheslavesocietywiththefree.????????????????Theassaultonfreeinstitutionsisworld-widenow,andinthecontextofthepresentpolarizationofpoweradefeatoffreeinstitutionsanywhereisadefeateverywhere.TheshockwesustainedinthedestructionofCzechoslovakiawasnotinthemeasureofCzechoslovakia'smaterialimportancetous.Inamaterialsense,hercapabilitieswerealreadyatSovietdisposal.ButwhentheintegrityofCzechoslovakinstitutionswasdestroyed,itwasintheintangiblescaleofvaluesthatweregisteredalossmoredamagingthanthemateriallosswehadalreadysuffered.????????????????ThusunwillinglyourfreesocietyfindsitselfmortallychallengedbytheSovietsystem.Noothervaluesystemissowhollyirreconcilablewithours,soimplacableinitspurposetodestroyours,socapableofturningtoitsownusesthemostdangerousanddivisivetrendsinourownsociety,noothersoskillfullyandpowerfullyevokestheelementsofirrationalityinhumannatureeverywhere,andnootherhasthesupportofagreatandgrowingcenterofmilitarypower.????????????????B.OBJECTIVES????????????????Theobjectivesofafreesocietyaredeterminedbyitsfundamentalvaluesandbythenecessityformaintainingthematerialenvironmentinwhichtheyflourish.Logicallyandinfact,therefore,theKremlin'schallengetotheUnitedStatesisdirectednotonlytoourvaluesbuttoourphysicalcapacitytoprotecttheirenvironment.Itisachallengewhichencompassesbothpeaceandwarandourobjectivesinpeaceandwarmusttakeaccountofit.????????????????1.Thuswemustmakeourselvesstrong,bothinthewayinwhichweaffirmourvaluesintheconductofournationallife,andinthedevelopmentofourmilitaryandeconomicstrength.2.Wemustleadinbuildingasuccessfullyfunctioningpoliticalandeconomicsysteminthefreeworld.Itisonlybypracticalaffirmation,abroadaswellasathome,ofouressentialvalues,thatwecanpreserveourownintegrity,inwhichliestherealfrustrationoftheKremlindesign.3.ButbeyondthusaffirmingourvaluesourpolicyandactionsmustbesuchastofosterafundamentalchangeinthenatureoftheSovietsystem,achangetowardwhichthefrustrationofthedesignisthefirstandperhapsthemostimportantstep.ClearlyitwillnotonlybelesscostlybutmoreeffectiveifthischangeoccurstoamaximumextentasaresultofinternalforcesinSovietsociety.????????????Inashrinkingworld,whichnowfacesthethreatofatomicwarfare,itisnotanadequateobjectivemerelytoseektochecktheKremlindesign,fortheabsenceoforderamongnationsisbecominglessandlesstolerable.Thisfactimposesonus,inourowninterests,theresponsibilityofworldleadership.Itdemandsthatwemaketheattempt,andaccepttherisksinherentinit,tobringaboutorderandjusticebymeansconsistentwiththeprinciplesoffreedomanddemocracy.WeshouldlimitourrequirementoftheSovietUniontoitsparticipationwithothernationsonthebasisofequalityandrespectfortherightsofothers.Subjecttothisrequirement,wemustwithouralliesandtheformersubjectpeoplesseektocreateaworldsocietybasedontheprincipleofconsent.Itsframeworkcannotbeinflexible.Itwillconsistofmanynationalcommunitiesofgreatandvaryingabilitiesandresources,andhenceofwarpotential.Theseedsofconflictswillinevitablyexistorwillcomeintobeing.Toacknowledgethisisonlytoacknowledgetheimpossibilityofafinalsolution.Nottoacknowledgeitcanbefatallydangerousinaworldinwhichtherearenofinalsolutions.????????????????Alltheseobjectivesofafreesocietyareequallyvalidandnecessaryinpeaceandwar.Buteveryconsiderationofdevotiontoourfundamentalvaluesandtoournationalsecuritydemandsthatweseektoachievethembythestrategyofthecoldwar.ItisonlybydevelopingthemoralandmaterialstrengthofthefreeworldthattheSovietregimewillbecomeconvincedofthefalsityofitsassumptionsandthatthepre-conditionsforworkableagreementscanbecreated.BypracticallydemonstratingtheintegrityandvitalityofoursystemthefreeworldwidenstheareaofpossibleagreementandthuscanhopegraduallytobringaboutaSovietacknowledgementofrealitieswhichinsumwilleventuallyconstituteafrustrationoftheSovietdesign.Shortofthis,however,itmightbepossibletocreateasituationwhichwillinducetheSovietUniontoaccommodateitself,withorwithouttheconsciousabandonmentofitsdesign,tocoexistenceontolerabletermswiththenon-Sovietworld.Suchadevelopmentwouldbeatriumphfortheideaoffreedomanddemocracy.ItmustbeanimmediateobjectiveofUnitedStatespolicy.????????????????Thereisnoreason,intheeventofwar,forustoalterouroverallobjectives.Theydonotincludeunconditionalsurrender,thesubjugationoftheRussianpeoplesoraRussiashornofitseconomicpotential.SuchacoursewouldirrevocablyunitetheRussianpeoplebehindtheregimewhichenslavesthem.RathertheseobjectivescontemplateSovietacceptanceofthespecificandlimitedconditionsrequisitetoaninternationalenvironmentinwhichfreeinstitutionscanflourish,andinwhichtheRussianpeopleswillhaveanewchancetoworkouttheirowndestiny.IfwecanmaketheRussianpeopleouralliesintheenterprisewewillobviouslyhavemadeourtaskeasierandvictorymorecertain.????????????????TheobjectivesoutlinedinNSC20/4(November23,1948)...arefullyconsistentwiththeobjectivesstatedinthispaper,andtheyremainvalid.Thegrowingintensityoftheconflictwhichhasbeenimposeduponus,however,requiresthechangesofemphasisandtheadditionsthatareapparent.CoupledwiththeprobablefissionbombcapabilityandpossiblethermonuclearbombcapabilityoftheSovietUnion,theintensifyingstrugglerequiresustofacethefactthatwecanexpectnolastingabatementofthecrisisunlessanduntilachangeoccursinthenatureoftheSovietsystem.????????????????C.MEANS????????????Thefreesocietyislimitedinitschoiceofmeanstoachieveitsends.????????????????Compulsionisthenegationoffreedom,exceptwhenitisusedtoenforcetherightscommontoall.Theresorttoforce,internallyorexternally,isthereforealastresortforafreesociety.Theactispermissibleonlywhenoneindividualorgroupsofindividualswithinitthreatenthebasicrightsofotherindividualsorwhenanothersocietyseekstoimposeitswilluponit.Thefreesocietycherishesandprotectsasfundamentaltherightsoftheminorityagainstthewillofamajority,becausetheserightsaretheinalienablerightsofeachandeveryindividual.????????????????Theresorttoforce,tocompulsion,totheimpositionofitswillisthereforeadifficultanddangerousactforafreesociety,whichiswarrantedonlyinthefaceofevengreaterdangers.Thenecessityoftheactmustbeclearandcompelling;theactmustcommenditselftotheoverwhelmingmajorityasaninescapableexceptiontothebasicideaoffreedom;ortheregenerativecapacityoffreemenaftertheacthasbeenperformedwillbeendangered.????????????????TheKremlinisabletoselectwhatevermeansareexpedientinseekingtocarryoutitsfundamentaldesign.Thusitcanmakethebestofseveralpossibleworlds,conductingthestruggleonthoselevelswhereitconsidersitprofitableandenjoyingthebenefitsofapseudo-peaceonthoselevelswhereitisnotreadyforacontest.Attheideologicalorpsychologicallevel,inthestruggleformen'sminds,theconflictisworldwide.Atthepoliticalandeconomiclevel,withinstatesandintherelationsbetweenstates,thestruggleforpowerisbeingintensified.Andatthemilitarylevel,theKremlinhasthusfarbeencarefulnottocommitatechnicalbreachofthepeace,althoughusingitsvastforcestointimidateitsneighbors,andtosupportanaggressiveforeignpolicy,andnothesitatingthroughitsagentstoresorttoarmsinfavorablecircumstances.Theattempttocarryoutitsfundamentaldesignisbeingpressed,therefore,withallmeanswhicharebelievedexpedientinthepresentsituation,andtheKremlinhasinextricablyengagedusintheconflictbetweenitsdesignandourpurpose.????????????????Wehavenosuchfreedomofchoice,andleastofallintheuseofforce.Resorttowarisnotonlyalastresortforafreesociety,butitisalsoanactwhichcannotdefinitivelyendthefundamentalconflictintherealmofideas.Theideaofslaverycanonlybeovercomebythetimelyandpersistentdemonstrationofthesuperiorityoftheideaoffreedom.Militaryvictoryalonewouldonlypartiallyandperhapsonlytemporarilyaffectthefundamentalconflict,foralthoughtheabilityoftheKremlintothreatenoursecuritymightbeforatimedestroyed,theresurgenceoftotalitarianforcesandthere-establishmentoftheSovietsystemoritsequivalentwouldnotbelongdelayedunlessgreatprogressweremadeinthefundamentalconflict.????????????????Practicalandideologicalconsiderationsthereforebothimpelustotheconclusionthatwehavenochoicebuttodemonstratethesuperiorityoftheideaoffreedombyitsconstructiveapplication,andtoattempttochangetheworldsituationbymeansshortofwarinsuchawayastofrustratetheKremlindesignandhastenthedecayoftheSovietsystem.????????????????Forustheroleofmilitarypoweristoservethenationalpurposebydeterringanattackuponuswhileweseekbyothermeanstocreateanenvironmentinwhichourfreesocietycanflourish,andbyfighting,ifnecessary,todefendtheintegrityandvitalityofourfreesocietyandtodefeatanyaggressor.TheKremlinusesSovietmilitarypowertobackupandservetheKremlindesign.Itdoesnothesitatetousemilitaryforceaggressivelyifthatcourseisexpedientintheachievementofitsdesign.ThedifferencesbetweenourfundamentalpurposeandtheKremlindesign,therefore,arereflectedinourrespectiveattitudestowardanduseofmilitaryforce.????????????????Ourfreesociety,confrontedbyathreattoitsbasicvalues,naturallywilltakesuchaction,includingtheuseofmilitaryforce,asmayberequiredtoprotectthosevalues.Theintegrityofoursystemwillnotbejeopardizedbyanymeasures,covertorovert,violentornon-violent,whichservethepurposesoffrustratingtheKremlindesign,nordoesthenecessityforconductingourselvessoastoaffirmourvaluesinactionsaswellaswordsforbidsuchmeasures,providedonlytheyareappropriatelycalculatedtothatendandarenotsoexcessiveormisdirectedastomakeusenemiesofthepeopleinsteadoftheevilmenwhohaveenslavedthem.????????????????Butifwarcomes,whatistheroleofforce?UnlesswesouseitthattheRussianpeoplecanperceivethatoureffortisdirectedagainsttheregimeanditspowerforaggression,andnotagainsttheirowninterests,wewillunitetheregimea