51.The following appeared in a medical newsletter.
"Doctors have long suspected that secondary infections may keep some patients from healing quickly after severe muscle strain. This hypothesis has now been proved by preliminary results of a study of two groups of patients. The first group of patients, all being treated for muscle injuries by Dr. Newland, a doctor who specializes in sports medicine, took antibiotics regularly throughout their treatment. Their recuperation time was, on average, 40 percent quicker than typically expected. Patients in the second group, all being treated by Dr. Alton, a general physician, were given sugar pills, although the patients believed they were taking antibiotics. Their average recuperation time was not significantly reduced. Therefore, all patients who are diagnosed with muscle strain would be well advised to take antibiotics as part of their treatment."
医生长期以来怀疑严重肌肉扭伤后的二次感染妨碍了一些患者迅速康复。这一假说现在被一项对两组患者的研究的初步结果所证实。第一组患者全部由专攻运动医学的Dr. Newland治疗肌肉损伤，他们在疗程中经常服用抗生素。他们的康复期平均比通常预期的快40％。第二组患者由综合医师Dr. Alton治疗，他们被给予糖丸，而患者相信他们在服用抗生素。他们的平均康复时间没有明显缩短。因此，任何被确诊为肌肉损伤的患者应被建议服用抗生素作为辅助治疗。
51
1. The recuperation time the two groups compared with might be different. 这两组患者的身体状况、年龄和伤情都不明确。
2. There might be great difference between the two groups of patients. Those who went to see sports medical doctor might have acute muscle strain while those to general physician might have chronic muscle strain. The two groups might not contain enough randomly selected patients. 医生研究的领域不同 经验水平都不同
3. There might be other differences in the two doctors’ treatment besides using antibiotics, such as: muscle massage (按摩), specific drug and so on. The sports medical doctor might be more proficient and skillful in curing muscle strain. 还有抗生素有副作用吗？不明确
secondary infections,muscle strain 论断：要建议有肌肉拉伤的病人服用抗生素。因为医生最近证实二次感染会防碍病人快速康复。在一项对两组病人的研究中，第一组病人由专门从事体育药品的医生治疗，并在整个治疗中服用抗生素，他们比一般的病人快40%康复；第二组病人由普通医生治疗，尽管病人以为服用的是抗生素，但实际吃的是糖片，他们的康复时间没有明显下降。
·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是二次感染一定会发生。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明二次感染会发生在肌肉拉伤的病人身上，或是这种病人容易发生二次感染。
·论断引用的论据没有说服力。论断引用了一项分组研究。但是首先论者没有提供任何有关两组病人的资料。有关他们的年龄、性别以及其他生理特征。有可能服用抗生素的一组病人比较年轻，或是本身生理机能好，而不服用的一组病人可能都是体质弱的人。这样就不能说明是抗生素而不是其他原因使得病人康复快。另外两位医生的经验和水平也会影响病人康复的速度，一般来说运动医生会比普通医生更了解肌肉的问题，所以由他治疗的病人康复快，就不能排除是因为他的水平高或是治疗有针对性造成，这样也不能说明是抗生素使得病人康复快。第三，不服抗生素的一组食用了糖片，而论者没有给出资料证明这种糖片不会影响病人的康复。所以对这两组病人的研究并不能说明抗生素能使病人康复快。
·论断太武断。论者由二次感染会防碍病人快速康复而认为要建议病人服用抗生素。但是抗生素除了会杀菌防止感染外，还可能会带来其他问题，比如副作用，也可能有的病人会对抗生素过敏。对于这些情况论者没有考虑进来。
结论：为加强说服力，论者还应该进一步提供有关肌肉拉伤的病人中二次感染的概率有多少，并提供一份科学的研究，证明在相同医生、相同病征、相同病人生理条件以及其他治疗手段、环境相同的情况下，抗生素是能使病人早日康复。
203.The following appeared in a newspaper feature story.
"At the small, nonprofit hospital in the town of Saluda, the average length of a patient's stay is two days; at the large, for-profit hospital in the nearby city of Megaville, the average patient stay is six days. Also, the cure rate among patients in the Saluda hospital is about twice that of the Megaville hospital. The Saluda hospital has more employees per patient than the hospital in Megaville, and there are few complaints about service at the local hospital. Such data indicate that treatment in smaller, nonprofit hospitals is more economical and of better quality than treatment in larger, for-profit hospitals."
在Saluda镇的小型非盈利医院，患者平均逗留时间是两天；在邻近的Megaville市的大型盈利医院，患者平均逗留时间为6天。而且，Saluda医院患者的治愈率大约是Megaville医院的两倍。Saluda平均每个患者对应的医务人员的数量比Megaville医院多，而且地方医院关于服务的投诉也较少。这些数据表明小型非盈利医院的治疗比大型盈利医院更加经济，质量更高。
203
1. Shorter stay in hospital does not mean a quicker recovery. It is possible that the small hospital simply cannot afford to keep patients as long as it has not enough beds and medical infrastructure and even medical workers to take after those patients. It is possible that SH is just a temporary station for severe patients and it will send those patients to large hospitals.
2. It is possible that patients going a long way to large hospital suffer much more serious diseases or diseases that are hard to cure.
3. It is possible that the employees in SH are less competent than that in MH. Or the majority of the employees are working with no relevance to medical work but for hospital management.
4. The percentage of patients complaining might be higher.
5. Fewer complaints does not equal to more satisfactory. It is possible that the access to complaint is not open or convenient. Some patients might choose other hospitals if they are disgruntled with SH. It is also possible that SH concede some of complaints in order to attract more patients.
203.nonprofit hospital 论断：小的非赢利医院的治疗比大的赢利医院更经济质量也更好。因为S的非营利医院病人的平均住院天数是两天，附近M市大的营利医院的平均住院天数是六天。另外，S的疗愈率是M的两倍。S每位医生看的病人也比M的多，抱怨也少。
·前提，治疗质量。没有直接的对比数字，无法得出。提供的住院天数没有意义。重病的人一般去大医院，而且由于S是非营利的，对资源使用控制并不完全视病情需要，不排除有可能病人没好就让人走人。
·前提，经济。乍一看有可能，因为S不赢利，M赢利，不过如果把治疗效果考虑进来，情况就要复杂一些。提供的每位医生看病人的比较没有意义。因为S没有钱支付更多的人员工资，所以每个人看的病人多，每位病人得到的治疗少，但又不能保证医生水平会比M高，所以这一点是不被保证的。
·抱怨，因为不知道两家医院接待病人的情况所以无从比较。另外，S非营利可能，病人也就不抱怨了，或者是穷人，不愿惹麻烦。而M就不一样了，因为营利，人们对它会挑剔一些。
238.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Mira Vista College to the college's board of trustees.
"At nearby Green Mountain College, which has more business courses and more job counselors than does Mira Vista College, 90 percent of last year's graduating seniors had job offers from prospective employers. But at Mira Vista College last year, only 70 percent of the seniors who informed the placement office that they would be seeking employment had found full-time jobs within three months after graduation, and only half of these graduates were employed in their major field of study. To help Mira Vista's graduates find employment, we must offer more courses in business and computer technology and hire additional job counselors to help students with their resumès and interviewing skills."
邻近的Green Mountain学院拥有比Mira Vista学院更多的商业课程和就业顾问，去年其毕业生有90％得到了公司的工作机会。但去年在Mira Vista，所有通知了就业办公室说他们要就业的毕业生中只有70％的人在毕业后三个月内找到全职工作，而且这些毕业生只有一半在本专业就业。为帮助Mira Vista的毕业生找到工作，我们必须提供更多的商业和计算机技术课程，并雇佣更多的就业顾问来帮助学生提高准备简历和面试的技巧。(说不定M毕业后三个月就有70%就业 而G是毕业一年后才有90%的就业作者没说清数据的背景来源和时间尺度)
238
1. The statistics comparing job-placement rates might be distorted in one of more respects(数据多方面错误). The author fails to indicate the percentage of GM graduates who find employment in their major fields of study. It is also possible that the time parameters(时间衡量
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) defining the two schools’ job-placement rates differ. It is possible that GM’s record was based on a longer period of time. It is also possible that students who fail to inform the placement office have also found jobs, which add to the employment rate of graduates in MV.
2. It is possible that the success in graduate employment of GMC results from other factors: exceptionally high quality of students, favorable academic atmosphere, abundant resource of teachers and education facilities, prestigious for well-qualified students.
3. Those measures might not be effective in MV: improve the quality of education, providing more professional courses, establish the net between schools and relative companies.
238.more business courses and more job counselors 论断：我们必须提供更多的商业课和计算机技术，并雇用更多的职业顾问帮助学生做好简历和面见技巧。因为隔壁的G校比我们多有这些多西，去年他们90%的毕业生从潜在雇主那里拿到了工作offer，不过M只有70%报告办公室会去找工作的高年级学生在毕业后三个月里找到了全职工作，而且只有一半的学生工作与专业相关。
·前提，我们的学生不好找工作。首先70%和90%不说明问题，学生数目如果相差很大的话。其次，M校的学生拿到OFFER，没说去，可能工作很不好。而我们学校的学生70%找到的都是好工作。
·前提，提供商业课程会使学生好找工作。没有证据证明找到工作的学生是因为商业课程多。如果说毕业生大多工作与专业不对口，在一家企业工作是否就是从商呢？那要是卖书的公司，算是在干什么的。M校可能是商科学校，而我们主要是理科。事实上专业不同对课程需要也是不同。
·结论：雇用职业顾问可能能够使学生更好地表现自己，但很多不是面试技巧和简历能解决的。还得看实力。
53.Thirteen years ago, researchers studied a group of 25 infants who showed signs of mild distress when exposed to unfamiliar stimuli such as an unusual odor or a tape recording of an unknown voice. They discovered that these infants were more likely than other infants to have been conceived in early autumn, a time when their mothers' production of melatonin-a hormone known to affect some brain functions-would naturally increase in response to decreased daylight. In a follow-up study conducted earlier this year, more than half of these children-now teenagers-who had shown signs of distress identified themselves as shy. Clearly, increased levels of melatonin before birth cause shyness during infancy and this shyness continues into later life.
13年前，研究者研究了一组在受到不熟悉的刺激比如不寻常的气味和未知声音的录音时表现出轻微紧张的25名婴儿。他们发现这些婴儿比其他婴儿更可能在早秋怀孕，而早秋是他们的母亲分泌的melatonin--一种已知会影响一些大脑能的荷尔蒙--因日照的减少而增加的季节。在今年早些时候所作的跟踪调查中，这些表现出紧张迹象的儿童--现在已经是十几岁--有一半以上认为自己害羞。显然，出生前melatonin的增加导致婴儿期的羞涩并且这种羞涩将延续至生命更晚的阶段。
53
1. The number of the studied 25 is not enough to draw a conclusion.
2. The melatonin might not affect the baby’s brain functions as it affects the mother’s.
3. Other factors contribute to the shyness of the teenagers: their family education, their living environment, or even their standard of shyness.
25 infants,mild distress 论断：出生前某素的高含量会使婴儿害羞，而且这种害羞会继续。因为研究者在13年前对25个对陌生刺激表现敏感的婴儿进行了研究，发现他们比其他婴儿更多地在秋季怀上。而秋季母亲体内的影响大脑功能的某素产量会因为日光的下降而天然上升。如今这25名婴儿都十几岁了，今年一项跟踪调查发现他们大部分都认为自己很害羞。
·论断忽略了一个前提，就是某素是否会导致婴儿害羞。论者没有提供任何对某素的科学研究，以说明某素的功能或是作用是什么。论者甚至没有提供资料证明某素是否会对婴儿产生影响。虽然论者说某素是一种对某些大脑功能有影响的荷尔蒙，但并没有告诉我们这种影响是对母亲，还是对胎儿。
·论断的论据没有说服力。论断引用一项13年前对25个对陌生刺激反应敏感的婴儿的研究和今年的跟踪研究。但首先论者没有提供资料表明婴儿表现出来的敏感一下是因为害羞，我们不能排除这是因为刺激带来的生理上的不舒服。而在跟踪研究中，论者也没有提供有关这些孩子在这十几年里的生活环境的资料，我们不能排除环境对孩子性格的影响。
·论断的结论很武断。论断某素的高含量会导致婴儿害羞，并在后面的生活中延续。但显然性格的形成有很多原因，后天的环境与经历也非常重要。结论：若要增加说服力，论者还需要提供有关科学研究资料，进一步说明某素对胎儿能造成什么样的影响。而且是否这种影响是永久的，无法消除的，论者也需要再进一步思考。
45.The following appeared as an editorial in a wildlife journal.
"Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic region. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island during the course of a year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed, and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the decline in arctic deer populations is the result of deer being unable to follow their age-old migration patterns across the frozen sea."
北极鹿生活在加拿大极地区域的岛屿上。它们全年都通过冰块在岛屿间移动来寻找食物。它们的栖居地局限在那些温暖得足以维持它们所需的植物生长，并且在一年的至少某些时候冷到足以让岛屿间的海面结冰以使它们能够在岛屿间旅行的地方。然而，根据当地猎人的报告，鹿的数量正在下降。由于这一报告正好与最近导致海洋冰面融化的全球变暖趋势同时发生，我们可以得出结论：北极鹿数量的下降是它们无法按它们原有的迁移习惯穿越结冰海面的结果。 Other factors: overhunting, lack of food, other predators, immigration to other places等
Arctic deer 论断：鹿的数目下降的原因是气温上升。因为气温上升使得海上的冰融化，鹿无法按照传统在冰冻的海面上迁徒。他举例说，最近当地的猎人报告说鹿的数目在下降，而这种下降又伴随全球气温上升的趋势。
·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是当地的气温的确在上升。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明当地的气温比以前高了。
·得出论断的前提是鹿的数目的确在下降。但是论者仅用当地猎人的报告，不足以证明。因为很有可能猎人只是因为打不到鹿，而认为鹿数目在下降。但是这些猎人活动的时间、范围以及习惯是否与鹿相同都会影响到他们是否能看见鹿。
·论断的另一个前提是，气温上升会导致鹿数目下降。但是论者没有提供任何资料证明如果气温上升，环境改变，鹿就会死亡。气温上升或许会使鹿生存的环境发生变化，它们的活动模式或许必需有所改变，但这些都不必造成鹿死亡。
·论断引用的证据没有说服力。论断说鹿数目下降的同时伴随全球气温上升的趋势。但全球势趋不能代表本地状况，很有可能全球某些地方气温升高很快，使得全球气温上升，但本地的气温仍可能不变，甚至下降。
·论者的结论很武断。他认为是气温上升改变了鹿的迁徒模式，而不是其他原因导致鹿数目下降。但是显然猎人是否有过度猎杀、鹿的某种食物最近是不是大面积减少等等都能使得鹿数目下降。
结论：论者若要增加说服力，还因提供目前鹿数目的变化情况，以及当地气温是否有上升。另外鹿的生存环境是否还存在其他的威胁也需要调查。
241.The following appeared in a memo at the XYZ company.
"When XYZ lays off employees, it pays Delany Personnel Firm to offer those employees assistance in creating resumès and developing interviewing skills, if they so desire. Laid-off employees have benefited greatly from Delany's services: last year those who used Delany found jobs much more quickly than did those who did not. Recently, it has been proposed that we use the less-expensive Walsh Personnel Firm in place of Delany. This would be a mistake because eight years ago, when XYZ was using Walsh, only half of the workers we laid off at that time found jobs within a year. Moreover, Delany is clearly superior, as evidenced by its bigger staff and larger number of branch offices. After all, last year Delany's clients took an average of six months to find jobs, whereas Walsh's clients took nine."
当XYZ裁员的时候，它雇佣了Delany人事公司在这些下岗员工有需要的时候为他们在写简历和提高面试技巧方面提供帮助。下岗员工从Delany的服务中极大受益：去年获得了Delany帮助的员工找工作比没有找Delany的员工快的多。最近，有提案提出用收费较少的Walsh人事公司代替Delany。这将是一个错误，因为在8年前，XYZ使用的就是Walsh，我们当时裁减的员工只有一半在一年之内找到了工作。而且，Delany显然更好，理由是它的员工更多，分支机构也更多。不论如何，去年Delany的客户平均用六个月找到工作，而Walsh的客户平均用了9个月。
1. The placement rate 8 years ago might not be a reliable indicator of what the rate would be now. It is possible that the condition of 8 years ago was due to a general economy downturn or some other factor beyond W’s control. And improvements might have also been made in W to better service their clients during the 8 years.
2. The success of D last year might not indicate that D’s services are better. It is possible that those who seek D for help might be more competitive and adaptable to new jobs. Besides, the speed with which one finds a job cannot simply equate to the success of job-seeking. It is possible that the jobs those workers quickly find are not satisfactory or suitable.
3. The overall placement time last year does not necessarily indicate that D would be a better choice. These employees might have particular skills or needs that the normal clients of the two firms’ cannot represent. Besides, a single year’s statistics hardly suffices to draw any firm conclusions.
4. The more branch offices and a larger staff do not necessarily mean that D would be more effective. Perhaps the number of D staff members per office is actually lower than at W.
241.offer employees assistance in resumés and interviewing skills 论断：改用便宜的W而不用D是错误的。因为八年前我们就用了W，只有一半被裁的员工在一年里找到了工作。另外D显然更好，他们人多分支机构也多就是证据。去年D的顾客平均花六个月找工作，而W的顾客要九个月。
·前提，W不好。论据用的八年前，八年，够发生很多事情了。另外，被裁掉的员工的状况也应该考虑进去，也许以前我们裁员的标准非常严格，非常不合格的才裁掉。不像现在公司可能状况不好，挺好的员工也给裁了。
·前提，D好。首先人多机构多不代表效率高服务好，反而可能会增加成本。第二员工的经历，不可否认，接受这项服务的人会比不接受的人有更强烈的马上找到工作的愿望。所以找的时候，会比别人格外卖力。最后，顾客平均找工作的时间，工作性质、顾客能力都会影响。
·结论，既然W便宜，可能公司最近是不是财政紧张。若是换换也行，总比没有强吧。
37.Woven baskets characterized by a particular distinctive pattern have previously been found only in the immediate vicinity of the prehistoric village of Palea and therefore were believed to have been unique to the Palean people. Recently, however, archaeologists discovered such a "Palean" basket in Lithos, an ancient village across the Brim River from Palea. The Brim River is very deep and broad, and so the ancient Paleans could only have crossed it by boat, but there is no evidence that the Paleans had boats. And boats capable of carrying groups of people and cargo were not developed until thousands of years after the Palean people disappeared. Moreover, Paleans would have had no need to cross the river-the woods around Palea are full of nuts, berries, and small game. It follows that the so-called Palean baskets were not unique to Palea.
一种具有独特花纹的编织篮子以前只在史前村庄Palea的临近地区发现过，因而被认为是Palea居所独有的。然而最近，考古学家在一个与Palea隔着一条叫做Brim河的村庄Lithos发现了一个这样的Palea篮子。Brim河很深很宽，所以古代Palea人只能坐船穿过它，但没有证据表明Palea人拥有船只。而且能够运载大量人和货物的船只直到Palea人消失几千年后才出现。而且，Palea人应该没有必要穿过这条河流--Palea周围的林地有丰富的果实和小动物。这表明那种所谓的Palea篮子并不是那里所独有的。
Woven baskets,prehistoric village of Palea 论断：这种篮子不只P有。因为与他们住的地方隔一条河的地方也被发现有这个篮子，河很深只能划船过，但又没有证据证明P有船，而且能装很多人的船是在他们消失后几千年才出现的。另外P也没有必要过河，因为他们那边的山上长满了坚果草莓。
·前提不一定成立。论者是由P没有到过这里，得出篮子不只P有。但是论者没有提供任何确切的资料证明这里没有P来过的痕变，或是P的确没有来过这里。虽然P无法过河，但论者也没有告诉我们是否只有过河，P才能到这里。
·论者的论据没有说服力。论者指出河很深，而P没有船，大船的出现也在P之后。但是首先论者没有提供关于史前时代这条河的状况，有可能这条大河在史前时代并不存在，或是很浅。第二虽然没有证据表明P有船，而那个时代也没有大船，但P有可能使用一些简便的类似船的工具过河，比如木板。这些都可以使P达到这里。至于论者说P那边满是食物所以没有必要到这里就更没有说服力了，首先史前时代P那边是否也满是食物论者没有说，其次P不一定必须是为食物才到其他地方去，他可能是为玩耍或是其他什么偶然的因素。
·论者的结论很武断。论者认为P没有到过这里，所以这些篮子不是P的，篮子也就不只P有。但是就算P没有到过这里，论者也没有提供证据证明其他人不会把P的篮子带到这里来，比如说这里人，比如后人。
结论：论断要加强说服力还应进一步了解史前时代P人生活的状况，并对这里的地理状况提供更详细的资料。
150.The following is a letter to the editor of an environmental magazine.
"The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide clearly indicates the global pollution of water and air. Two studies of amphibians in Yosemite National Park in California confirm my conclusion. In 1915 there were seven species of amphibians in the park, and there were abundant numbers of each species. However, in 1992 there were only four species of amphibians observed in the park, and the numbers of each species were drastically reduced. The decline in Yosemite has been blamed on the introduction of trout into the park's waters, which began in 1920 (trout are known to eat amphibian eggs). But the introduction of trout cannot be the real reason for the Yosemite decline because it does not explain the worldwide decline."
全球两栖动物数量的下降清楚地说明全球空气和水质的污染。在加州Yosemite国家公园对于两栖动物所进行的两次研究证实了我的结论。1915年公园中有7中两栖动物，每种的数量都很丰富。然而到了1992年在公园中只观察到4种两栖动物，并且每种动物的数量都显著下降。Yosemite公园两栖动物数量的下降曾被归因于始于1920年的在公园水域引入鲑鱼的行为（我们知道鲑鱼捕食两栖动物的卵）。但鲑鱼的引入不会是Yosemite两栖动物数量下降的真正原因应为它并不能解释全球范围的数量下降。
1. The decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide might result from other factors: over hunting, global warming, and the free play of nature forces (the number of amphibians might be too large).
2. The single sample of Y is insufficient to draw any general conclusion worldwide. It is possible that in other parks or regions, the number of amphibians have increased.
3. Worldwide conclusion might not be applicable to Y as well. No evidence shows the decline of amphibians was not due to the introduction of trout and the pollution should be responsible for the situation. It is possible that in Y, the major villain of the decline is trout. It is very likely that the water and air in the park keeps away from pollution under the supervision of park guardians. 即使事实是因为全球环境污染也不能证明Y地久也符合全球的变化结果，很有可能管理员的环境清洁能力高
150.decline in the numbers of amphibians worldwide 论断：YNP地区两栖动物的下降不是因为鳟鱼的引入。全球范围两栖动物的数目下降，显示有全球水域和空气的污染。两次关于YNP两栖动物的研究支持我们的结论。在1915年这里有7种两栖动物，每种数目都很多。但是在1992年，这里只看得到四种，每种的数目也都显著下降。这种下降一直被归结为公园水域引入鳟鱼，而这种引入不能解释全球性的下降。
论断中有两个结论，一全球下降，显示全球有污染。二是YNP地区的原因不是因为鳟鱼。但是两个结论论者都没有提供相关的证据，我们既不知是否全球数目有下降，也不知道YNP地区是否还有其他因素。
·两次研究仅能证明YNP地区的数目在下降，但没有得出结论。论者也没有提供任何资料表明该地区存在空气或水域污染。因而不能像论者所以为的那样支持他关于全球数目下降显示全球有污染的结论。（不是污染引起该地区下降）
·是否有全球性的数目下降，又否是存在全球性的污染，论者都没有提供任何有关的证据。而且论者也未能在这两者之间建立因果关系，我们无法得出结论，即数目下降的原因是否是因为污染，因为也无法用以证实YNP地区的下降有可能是因为污染，也就不能排除已建立的可能，即鳟鱼引起了下降。（不是污染引起了全球的下降）
·YNP地区情况完全可以不和全球相同。
结论：论者的推论中有明显的逻辑错误，他将两个仍需要证实的结论，互为彼此推理过程的基础。思维极其混乱。
10.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a Batavia newspaper.
"The department of agriculture in Batavia reports that the number of dairy farms throughout the country is now 25 percent greater than it was 10 years ago. During this same time period, however, the price of milk at the local Excello Food Market has increased from $1.50 to over $3.00 per gallon. To prevent farmers from continuing to receive excessive profits on an apparently increased supply of milk, the Batavia government should begin to regulate retail milk prices. Such regulation is necessary to ensure both lower prices and an adequate supply of milk for consumers."
Batavia的农业部门报告说全国奶牛农庄的数量比10年前增加了25％。然而就在同一时期，当地Excello Food Market牛奶的价格从每加仑$1.5上涨到了$3.0。为防止农场主在牛奶供应量明显增加的情况下获取过多的利润，Batavia的政府应限制牛奶的零售价。这种限价对于保证更低的牛奶价格和充足的供应是必需的。
department of agriculture in Batavia 论断：为保证消费者得到低价和足够的牛奶供应，规范价格非常必要。因为奶农数量在过去10年增加了25%，而同时市场里的牛奶价格却升了一倍，这表明奶农从中获得了多余的利润。
·论断的前提是牛奶农们获得了多余的利润，但是却没有提供相应的证据。论者没有对牛奶生产所需的成本作任何调查，也没有提供农民获得的赢利具体是多少，更没有提供这样的赢利与其他产品的市场相比是否超出了应该的范围。这样武断地认为农民拿到了多余的利润非常不公平
·调查有问题，奶农的调查时全国性的，而奶价的调查时EFM的。可能EFM周围的奶农减少了，而EFM交通又不那么便利。
·论断引用的证据是牛奶价格在牛奶农场数量上升的同时，翻了一倍。但论据中有很多疑点，首先农场数量的增长不一定必然带来牛奶产量的上升。我们知道根据一般规律，产品数量上升会带来相应价格的下降，但是论据却没有提供任何有关牛奶产量的资料，这并不能排除农场数量增多的同时，单个农场的产量却在下降，从而导致市场上牛奶供应持平甚致有可能下降。另外价格的变化与供应量的变化之间也不是必然的，牛奶价格上涨有可能是整个经济环境的问题，比如说通货膨胀，论据没有提供任何有关整个市场或是其他商品价格变化的资料。 Tax transportation
Demands and supplies etc.
·论者认为市场的牛奶价格过高需要规范，以保证消费者获得低价足够的牛奶供应。但是他却忽视了一个重要问题就是牛奶的价格上涨正反应了牛奶需求量的上升。如果调低价格，牛奶市场就会失去一部现有的牛奶资源，从而导致供应不足。
结论：该论断仅凭市场的表象就作出结论，缺乏对牛奶市场的深入调查。要进一步了解牛奶市场的价格是否合理是否需要规范，他还需要了解目前的牛奶供应量是多少，是否满足消费者需求，以及整个市场的价格水平。
169.The following appeared in a letter from a department chairperson to the president of Pierce University.
"Some studies conducted by Bronston College, which is also located in a small town, reveal that both male and female professors are happier living in small towns when their spouses are also employed in the same geographic area. Therefore, in the interest of attracting the most gifted teachers and researchers to our faculty and improving the morale of our entire staff, we at Pierce University should offer employment to the spouse of each new faculty member we hire. Although we cannot expect all offers to be accepted or to be viewed as an ideal job offer, the money invested in this effort will clearly be well spent because, if their spouses have a chance of employment, new professors will be more likely to accept our offers."
对于同样位于小城市的Bronston学院所作的一些研究发现，不论男性或女性教授，当他们的配偶在相同的城市有工作时，就更乐于在这些小城市生活。因此，为了吸引最有天分的教师和研究人员加入我们的员工队伍并提高我们员工的士气，我们Pierce大学应该为每一个我们所雇佣的新员工的配偶提供就业机会。尽管我们并不期望所有就业机会都会被接受或被看作是理想的工作，我们在这项努力上的投入显然是值得的，因为如果新教授的配偶有就业机会，他们将更乐于在我们学校就职。
1. The studies carried out in BC cannot simply be applied to PU. The professor in the two institutions might have different ideas. And the number of professors might be too insufficient to draw the conclusion as BC was in a small town.
2. The popular preference of professors might not represent that of the most gifted teachers and researchers. It is very likely they might hope to stay alone to be dedicated to their education activity or research and family affairs might distract their energy from their jobs.
3. No evidence shows their spouses will have a chance of employment if they do not accept or interest in the jobs offered by PU.
4. Other factors might be more important in attracting professors to stay: the free but rigorous academic atmosphere, the salary and funds provided for research, the quality of students and the infrastructure of the university.
169.professors happier living when spouses in the same geographic area 论断：为吸引最有才能的老师和研究者来我们学校并提高整体员工的士气，我们应该给每位新员工的配偶提供工作机会。因为如果配偶有工作的机会，新教授会更愿意来我们这儿。尽管不可能所有位子都被接受或是看成理想的选择，花在这上的钱也会很值。
一个也在小城市的B校的研究发现，男女教授都会更快乐地生活在小镇上，当他们的配偶也在同一个地区工作时。 B校的研究描述不清楚，无法判断是否在一起生活会比不在一起生活更快乐，所以无法判断是否准确。但另外推论中也同样有问题。
·提高士气，愉快的夫妻生活不保证高的士气，校风，工作，工资都很重要 ·在一起生活愉快，但没有证据证明配偶的工作地点是教授们选择工作的唯一或重要标准。所以不一定更吸引人。
·如果这笔花费不小，就不能给每个新员工都提供。
·最有才能的？
237.The following appeared as part of an article in a local Beauville newspaper.
"According to a government report, last year the city of Dillton reduced its corporate tax rate by 15 percent; at the same time, it began offering relocation grants and favorable rates on city utilities to any company that would relocate to Dillton. Within 18 months, two manufacturing companies moved to Dillton, where they employ a total of 300 people. Therefore, the fastest way for Beauville to stimulate economic development and hence reduce unemployment is to provide tax incentives and other financial inducements that encourage private companies to *relocate here."
根据一项政府报告，去年Dillton市把它的营业税率降低了15％；同时，该市给予迁移至Dillton的公司一定的搬迁费和相应城市设施使用费的优惠。在18个月内，两家生产商搬迁到了Dillton，他们在那里一共雇佣了300名工人。因此，Beauville市刺激经济发展从而降低失业率最快的
方法
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就是提供税率以及其他经济上的优惠来鼓励私有企业搬迁到本地。
1. It is possible that the two businesses were motivated primarily by other factors such as D’s climate, labor pool, geographic location (near the supply of raw materials to the companies).
2. No evidence shows the relocation of the two firms to D in fact had a beneficial impact on the city’s economy. It is possible that the employed 300 people do not increase the rate of local employment as they come from other places. It is also possible that the two companies are detrimental to(有害，不利于) the development of other local companies, which lead to 300 more people unemployed.
3. No evidence shows the new incentives will carry a similar result for B. It is possible that B has already held a much favorable policy of encouraging private companies. Perhaps the market of B has been saturated, and thus the changes might not attract new companies for the fierce competition in B. It is also possible that the general economy has changed during the last 18 months, which those favorable policies might lose their effect.
4. Other measures might be more fast and effective: improving transportation services, public facilities, reducing crime rate, and optimize overall investment condition.
237.reduced its corporate tax rate 论断：B刺激经济发展降低失业率的最快方法是提供税收刺激和其它财政刺激鼓励私人企业再创业。因为D城去年把企业税降了15%，同时他们开始向所有到D来创业的企业提供资金和优惠的城市设备使用价格。18个月里，两家制造企业搬去了D，它们一共雇了300个人。 论断都从D城例子得来。
·两城情况不一样，地理位不同、发展水平不同、居民不同等等等。D城以前的税率不明，有可能降完了还比B高。
·两家公司不一定是因为低税来D的，有可能这里的潜在市场被它们看重，有可能其它自己的原因。
·D城的经济发展和失业问题解决得怎么样不知道，300个人的就业少了点吧。而且搞不好这三百人以前都是有工作的。
·结论：首先D城例子里没说两家公司是私人企业，私人企业就算有刺激不一定能有能力再创业。其次，最快的方法，你就说了这一个呢。
161.In a study of reading habits of Leeville citizens conducted by the University of Leeville, most respondents said they preferred literary classics as reading material. However, a follow-up study conducted by the same researchers found that the type of book most frequently checked out of each of the public libraries in Leeville was the mystery novel. Therefore, it can be concluded that the respondents in the first study had misrepresented their reading habits.
在一次由Leeville大学所举行的关于Leeville居阅读习惯的调查中，多数被访者说他们倾向于阅读古典文学。然而，由相同的研究人员随后进行的调查发现Leeville所有公共图书馆中最经常被借阅的书是神秘小说。因此，我们可以得出结论，第一次调查的被访者错误地表达了他们的阅读习惯
1. The respondents of the first study might only account for a small proportion of the L citizens and their reading preference cannot represent all the citizens (highly educated citizens).
2. It is possible that citizens prefer to buy literary classics and shelve them in order to read them at any time. Or they might read e-book of literary classics from the internet. It is also possible that public libraries provide more and cheaper mystery novels. And the classics might not be readily available as mystery novels.
3. The second research might conduct a long period after the first one when mystery novels came into fashion. Or the structure of population, the reading habits of the citizens have changed.两次调查的时间差没说清楚 可能人们的读书习惯随着时代的变化早已改变
161.reading habits of Leeville citizens 论断：居民不是最爱看古典文学。一项由L校进行的该地区居民阅读习惯研究中，大多数被访者说他们最爱看古典文学。但是他们随后进行的研究又发现该地区每个公共图书馆里最常被借的是神话小说。
·古典文学里有很多都是神话小说。奥德赛，希望神话都是古典小说。 First at all , the mystery novels can also be literary classics. The arguer undercounted the scope of "literary classics" . in fact, all book written by writers past and made great successes in readers can be called "literary classics", there are many mystery novels such as the "Odessey" and "Greek Mysterious story" have long been considered as literary classics. Moreover, each reader has his/her own concept about "literary classics", therefore, the arguer's conclusion about they had misrepresented theri reading habits is unfounded.
·公共图书馆不是唯一的书源。可以买，可以去私人图书馆。有可能是因为公共图书馆里古典小说藏量不丰富，或是神话小说过多而造成的。人们只是顺便借来看看。
·第二次研究时间多长，有可能只是暂时现象。比如流行。
9.The following appeared in a memorandum from a dean at Omega University.
"Fifteen years ago, Omega University implemented a new procedure that encouraged students to evaluate the teaching effectiveness of all their professors. Since that time, Omega professors have begun to assign higher grades in their classes, and overall student grade averages at Omega have risen by thirty percent. Potential employers apparently believe the grades at Omega are inflated; this would explain why Omega graduates have not been as successful at getting jobs as have graduates from nearby Alpha University. To enable its graduates to secure better jobs, Omega University should now terminate student evaluation of professors."
15年前，Omega大学实施了一项新措施，鼓励学生对所有教授的教学效果进行
评价
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。从那以后，Omega的教授开始给予学生更高的分数，Omega的学生成绩总平均上升了30％。未来的雇主显然认为Omega的分数贬值了；这可以解释为什么Omega的毕业生找工作时没有邻近的Alpha大学毕业生成。为使Omega毕业生找到好工作，我们应立即停止学生对教授的评价。
1. Omega University, evaluation 论断：终止学生评论教授，毕业生就能保证找到好工作。因为评价使得学生的分数平均增长 了30%， 使得潜在雇主认为学生的成绩是被夸张的，从而使学生没有另一学校学生找工作成功。
·论断的前提是评论工程使得学生的分数虚夸，这是非常不公平的。论断没有提供有力证据证明学生的实际水平没有比以前有所提高，或是教师的确在给一些能力不高的学生打高分。因为评论工程的实施本身就是希望教师重视学生的意见，从而提高教学水平，最终提高学生的能力，而分数的提高是一个很重要的参数。而论断武断地将整体提升的分数归结为教师不真诚的行为，对学生和教师都非常不公平。 通过评估可以让老师更好的了解学生的需求从而改进自己的教学方式帮组学生进步
·论断没有足够的证据。论断说潜在雇主认为分数虚夸，却没有提供任何这方面的证据，仅仅用显然一词表示，不得不让人认为论者有偏见。而说到没有附近另一所学校被录用率高，论者也没有证据表明这是因分数虚夸而导致，他既没有提供该校学生的分数是否比本校低，也没有证明他们其他的能力是否就不如本校，甚至他没有说该校是不是没有采用评价工程。
·论断认为这么做学生就能保证找到好工作也非常片面。很多因素都会因响学生是否找到工作，其中很重要的一条是专业是否有市场，另外经济是在萧条期还是繁荣期也会影响到学生找工作。这些都不是学校某项措施就能保证的。
结论：论断太过武断，他还应该再提供一些有关潜在雇主对该校学生具体评价，看看是否是因为不信任学生的分数而影响了他们录用学生，他们对学生表现出来的其他能力评价又如何。其实学生在找工作方面遇到了困难，学校应该对其进行面试辅导以增强他们的竞争力，或是根据市场需求调整课程，而不应该简单地停止一项旨在提高教学质量的措施。
188.A new report suggests that men and women experience pain very differently from one another, and that doctors should consider these differences when prescribing pain medications. When researchers administered the same dosage of kappa opioids-a painkiller-to 28 men and 20 women who were having their wisdom teeth extracted, the women reported feeling much less pain than the men, and the easing of pain lasted considerably longer in women. This research suggests that kappa opioids should be prescribed for women whenever pain medication is required, whereas men should be given other kinds of pain medication. In addition, researchers should reevaluate the effects of all medications on men versus women.
一项新报告表明，男性和女性对于疼痛的感受是有显著差异的，医生在开止痛药方的时候应该考虑到这种差异。当研究者把相同剂量的kappa opioids--一种止痛药--分发给智齿刚刚被拔除的28名男子和20名女子的时候，女性报告的她们感受的痛楚要比男性小的多，而且止痛的时间女性更长。这一研究说明当需要止痛药时，应该给女性服用kappa opioids，而应该给男性服用其他的止痛药。而且，研究人员应该重新评估所有药品对于男性以及女性的效用。
1. The study is statistically unreliable.
2. Personal feeling might not be accurate. It is possible that the effect is the same to both men and women. Psychological quality
3. KO might not be suitable in some scenarios: some operations involve severe pains, women in pregnancy, or women who are allergic to the medicine.
4. Other pain medication might be more effective to women.
5. KO might be effective to men compared to other painkillers. The comparison of the effect with women cannot manifest KO’s low efficacy. 心理问题 当时的身体状况 和智齿的成长程度
6. There might be no need to reevaluate the effects of all medications as the majority of medications have almost the same efficacy or just minute difference on men versus women.
188.men and women experience pain very differently from one another 论断：只要止痛药需要就要给女的开K，而男的应该开别的药。另外研究者应该对所有药对于男女不同的效果重新评估。因为一份新的报告显示，男女对痛的经历非常不同，医生应该考虑给他们开不同的止痛药。研究中给在拨智齿的28个男人和20个女人开同样剂量的K，女的比男的少说痛，而且药效女的也明显长一些。
·前提，K对女的有效，对男的没效。拨牙一项不能代表所有的情况。
·前提，男女对疼痛的经历不同，没有直接证据证明。而
论据，问题多。首先，人太少，没有代表性。其次，也许不是性别带来的不同，而是其他体质上的问题，心态问题。没有说是否每一个女人都比每一个男人少说痛。第三，心理影响。报告的痛有心理作用，而医学关心的止痛是生理问题。不排除女的意志力坚强，所以少说痛。
·就算男女对K的经历不一样，没有理由存在需要对所有的药都重新评估。
207.It is known that in recent years, industrial pollution has caused the Earth's ozone layer to thin, allowing an increase in the amount of ultraviolet radiation that reaches the Earth's surface. At the same time, scientists have discovered, the population of a species of salamander that lays its eggs in mountain lakes has declined. Since ultraviolet radiation is known to be damaging to delicate tissues and since salamander eggs have no protective shells, it must be the case that the increase in ultraviolet radiation has damaged many salamander eggs and prevented them from hatching. This process will no doubt cause population declines in other species, just as it has in the salamander species.
我们知道近年来工业污染导致地球臭氧层变薄，使到达地球表面的紫外线辐射增加。同时，学者发现在山区湖泊产卵的某种蜥蜴的数量下降了。由于紫外线辐射能够破坏脆弱的组织并且蜥蜴的卵没有保护壳，因此一定是紫外线辐射的增加破坏了很多蜥蜴的卵并阻止它们孵化。这一过程无疑也会导致其他物种数量的下降，就像发生在这种蜥蜴身上的一样。
1. The decline in the number of S laying eggs in mountain lakes does not equal to the fact that S population in other locations is also decreasing. It is possible that the time the scientists researching is not the season for laying eggs and thus fewer S come to the mountain lakes.
2. Other factors contribute to the decline of S: the increasing of species prey on S or its eggs, pollution of the lake or the air surrounded by, climate disorder (extreme temperature).
3. Unfair assumption that other species are equally vulnerable to ultraviolet radiation. It is possible that other types of eggs have protective shells or they located under soils, which can prevent themselves from risks of damage.
4. No evidence shows the ozone-thinning process will continue and not reverse in the future. It is possible that human might take active measures to prevent the situation from deterioration, and thus in the near future the problems might be relieved. 结论过于悲观，人类会采取措施保护
207.pollution has caused ozone layer to thin 论断：紫外线照射的增加一定破坏了很多S蛋并阻止了它们的孵化，而且这个过程无疑也会造成其他种类数目的下降。因为工业污染已造成地球臭氧层变薄从而增加了到达地球表面的紫外线的量，同时科学家发现一种在山上的湖里产孵的S的数目在下降。紫外线已知对S蛋精致的组织有破坏，而S蛋无保护壳。。 ·忽视的前提，是否所有的S都在下降，一种在下降，不一定所有的都在下降。不排除只有它下降，而其他种在上升。
·前提，这种S数目的下降是因为蛋的孵化受到了影响。没有直接的证据证明现在孵化出来的S，或是说小S比以前少了。还有其它原因会造成数目下降，比如人为破坏环境和捕杀造成的成年S下降。explain result contributed by many causes with just one reason which can not garantee the result.
·结论，紫外线使得S蛋不能孵化。虽然S蛋没有保护壳，而紫外线对于S的组织有破坏作用，但都不被保证一定会使得严重到不能孵化。另外其它动物不一定会一样。
14.The following appeared in a memo from the owner of Green Thumb Gardening Center, a small business serving a suburban town.
"There is evidence that consumers are becoming more and more interested in growing their own vegetables. A national survey conducted last month indicated that many consumers（市中心的人还是郊区的居民） were dissatisfied with the quality of fresh vegetables available in supermarkets. And locally, the gardening magazine Great Gardens has sold out （具体销量多少，买的都是什么人，买的目的是什么）at the Village News stand three months in a row. Thus, we at Green Thumb Gardening Center （到底是什么杂志内容吸引读者，杂志价钱，纸张质量，图片）can increase our profits by greatly expanding the variety of vegetable seeds we stock for gardeners this coming spring." 成本问题呢
有证据表明消费者对于自己种植蔬菜越来越感兴趣。上个月举行的一项国家调查显示很多消费者对于超市上供应的新鲜蔬菜的质量不满意。在本地，园艺杂志《大花园》在"Village News"报亭连续三个月售磬。因此，我们Green Thumb Gardening Center可以通过大量增加今春为园艺爱好者准备的蔬菜种子的种类而增加盈利。
Green Thumb Gardening Center,growing their own vegetables 论断：大量扩大蔬菜种子的储存种类，就能提高赢利。因为有证据表明消费者对于自己种蔬菜越来越有兴趣，他举例说当种的一种农艺杂志很有市场。另外他说，一项全国性调查显示消费者对于超市里蔬菜的质量不满意，以说明为什么人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣。
·论断的前提人们愿意来这儿买种子自己回家种蔬菜。论者举例说当地有一种农艺杂志三个月里很快卖光，他认为这是人们对于自己种蔬菜越来越感兴趣的一个证明。但实际上农艺杂志的内容是什么，论者没有告诉我们，买这本杂志的人目的是什么，是为种菜吗？还是为了美化自己的花园去种花？如果杂志里有关种蔬菜的内容非常少，就不足以说明人们对于自己种蔬菜感趣。另外论者甚至没有提供这份杂志的具体销量，仅说它很快卖光。要知道，杂志发行量若很小的话，不需要有很多人对它感兴趣也能有这样的效果。
·为了说明人们为什么会对自己种蔬菜感兴趣，论者提到了一份全国性的调查，这份调查表明人们对于超市里蔬菜不满意。但这个论据首先是不合适的。一份全国性调查并不能说明一个城郊地区的状况。因为很有可能这份全国性的调查主要集中在大城市，被调查的人也都是住市中心的人，在那里超市可能是他们购买蔬菜的最主要途径。但这显然与一个城郊地区的特征不符，这里的人很可能比城市里的人更容易买到新鲜、好的蔬菜，而且他们也不像城市里那样依赖超市，还有杂货店甚至是农场。另外对于超市里的蔬菜不满意，也不必然带来自己种菜，这将花费人们大量的时间和精力，论断没有说这份调查是否表明不满意超市蔬菜的人都想自己种菜。
·论断认为扩弃种子种类就会带来营利，也犯了一个常识性错误，太过武断。如果说种类多顾客挑选余地大，更容易更多地购买，那么其中的成本问题论者没有提供。是不是具体多几种肯定会有市场的种类会更好一些？扩充种类必然会增加成本，那么相应的赢利就会被抵销。这其中的细节问题论者都没有考虑到，武断得出结论很有可能造成失败。
结论：论者没有调查清楚人们对于园艺的兴趣是什么，又引用了一份不合适的调查来支持他的观点，得出的结论必然是错误的。要想让人们接受他的建议，论者还需要提供关于愿意自己种蔬菜的人有多少，他们为什么这么做，并对市场有更进一步的了解，究意什么样的种类更吸引人。
18.The following appeared in an editorial in a Prunty County newspaper.
"In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County recently lowered its speed limit from 55 miles per hour to 45 on all major county roads. But the 55 mph limit should be restored, because this safety effort has failed. Most drivers are exceeding the new speed limit and the accident rate throughout Prunty County has decreased only slightly. If we want to improve the safety of our roads, we should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths and resurfacing rough roads. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago."
为提高高速公路的安全性，Prunty County最近把镇上所有主要路段的最高限速从55mph降到了45。但我们应该回复到55mph的限速，因为这种保障安全的努力已经失败了。多数司机都超过了新的限速，而且Prunty County全镇的事故率仅有微量下降。如果我们要提高公路安全性，我们应该采取Butler County在5年前完成的同样的道路改计划：增加车道宽度和重新铺装不平整路面。现在，Butler County的主要道路仍然使用55mph限速，而那里近年间上报的事故发生率比五年前减少了25％。
Prunty County， highway safety 论断：要想提高道路安全，就必需改善路况。因为另一个城市五年前这么做了，他们去年的事故记录比五年低了25%。而该市最近采取的限速措施并不成功，应该取销。因为大多数司机的速度都超过这个限制，事故发生率也只是降低了一点。
·论断的前提是改善路况有必要，但论断中没有资料支持这一点。该市的路况是不是很糟，事故发生的主要原因是不是因为路况不好，这些论者都没有提供资料。如果说该市的路况好，事故发生的原因主要是因为超速，那么论断的前提显然就不成立。论断要求改善路况也就没有根据。
·论断引用的论据是另一个城市的经验，并说明他们取得了成功。但论者没有告诉我们该市五年前面临的情况，比如道路状况比如事故原因与我们是否相同，也没有告诉我们他们的事故发生率是多少。如果说该市五年前的发生率非常高，现在降低25%以后还是比我们高，那么他们的经验就不值得我们借鉴。
·论断认为我们限速的措施不成功，这一点很不公平。论断说现在大多数的司机速度都在新的限速之上，这说明不是限速的措施本身不成功，而是因为司机没有遵守新的措施而导致事故。为此合理的做法应该是加强监督，保证司机遵守新的限速。而措施是新近实施的，短时间里，又在很多人没遵守的前提下已经小量降低了事故发生率，这说明措施还是有效的。
天气状况，白天还是晚上，事故发生的路段呢，也许是在急转弯处等等
结论：改善路况当然是件好事，但这是不是问题的关键所在？论者要说服我们接受他的观点，他还应该进一步提供有关我们道路状况的资料，以及有多少事故发生原因是因为道路不好，而对于限速的措施则应该加强监督确保落实。
186.The following is a recommendation from the director of personnel to the president of Professional Printing Company.
"In a recent telephone survey of automobile factory workers, older employees were less likely to report that having a supervisor present increases their productivity. Among workers aged 18 to 29, 27 percent said that they are more productive in the presence of their immediate supervisor, compared to 12 percent for those aged 30 or over, and only 8 percent for those aged 50 or over. Clearly, if our printing company hires mainly older employees, we will increase productivity and save money because of the reduced need for supervisors."
在最近一次对汽车工厂工人的电话调查中，年纪大一些的员工更少报告说有管理员在场会提高他们的生产效率。在18到29岁的员工中，27％的人说当他们的顶头上司在场时更有效率，相比之下，30岁及以上的工人只有12％，50岁及以上的工人只有8％这样认为。显然，如果我们印刷公司主要雇佣年级大一些的员工的话，我们的劳动生产率将会提高，并且节省开支，因为对于管理员的需求将会减少。
1. The survey is statistically unreliable. The number of respondents might just account for a small proportion of the total employees.
2. It is possible that what employees claim does not reflect their true situation. They might either overestimate or under estimate their productivity. Or older employees might be reluctant to admit that they are more productive in the presence of supervisor. Either situation made the survey unreliable.
3. Working not at full speed does not equal to low productivity. It is possible that young employees work more efficiently than older employees even without the presence of supervisor.
186.older employees were less likely having a supervisor 论断：我们印刷公司主要雇用老员工的话，将提高生产率并省下雇指导员的钱。因为一份对汽车工人的电话调查里，老的员工比较少报告当指导员在现场时会提高他们的生产力。
·前提，省钱。老工人一般要求的工资都比年轻人高，指导员的钱省下来了，工资却得长。
·前提，提高生产力。没有证据证明年轻人的生产力比老工人的低，不管在不在场的问题。而且年轻人一般体力好，少得病，少乱七八糟的事。
·论据，太弱。首先，电话调查查的范围，各有多少人，是否准确。其次，调查里没指导员时年轻人的生产力还有可能比老工人高，尽管有人在场时会更高。
·结论：两家公司工作不一样，员工要求不一样，没有可比性。
1.The following appeared in a memorandum written by the vice president of Nature's Way, a chain of stores selling health food and other health-related products.
"Previous experience has shown that our stores are most profitable in areas where residents are highly concerned with leading healthy lives. We should therefore build our next new store in Plainsville, which has many such residents. Plainsville merchants report that sales of running shoes and exercise clothing are at all-time highs. The local health club, which nearly closed five years ago due to lack of business, has more members than ever, and the weight training and aerobics classes are always full. We can even anticipate a new generation of customers: Plainsville's schoolchildren are required to participate in a 'fitness for life' program, which emphasizes the benefits of regular exercise at an early age."
以前的经验显示，我们的商店在那些居对健康生活高度关注的地区是盈利最多的。因此我们应该把下一家连锁店开设在Plainsville，那里有很多这样的居。Plainsville的商家报告说运动鞋和运动衣的销售处于历史高点。当地一家五年前因缺乏客源而濒临倒闭的康体俱乐部现在的会员比以往任何时候都多，减肥训练和体操班总是满员。我们还可以预见到新生代的顾客群：Plainsville的在校学生被要求参加一个叫做"终生健康"的项目，它强调从小开始经常锻炼的好处。
Nature’s Way 论断：在Plainsville开店会赚钱。
·赚钱的前提是收益高出成本，论断没有提供关于在此地开店的成本计算问题 ·那些参加健身活动的人不一定关心饮食健康，所以不必然地成为他们的顾客。
·就算他们关心饮食健康，那么当地相同商家没有被考虑进去，竞争以及品牌忠实度的问题
·他们在关心健康的地区赢利的原因没有说，健康也许不是他们的卖点，而是其它的东西
结论：论断仅凭一个似是而非的经验和该地的一些表面现象就匆忙做出结论，缺乏说服力。在投资前，该机构应该做充分的市场调查，准确找出自己的优势，并分析当地投资环境、竞争对手、消费习惯等问题。
15.The following appeared in a newsletter offering advice to investors.
"Over 80 percent of the respondents to a recent survey indicated a desire to reduce their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol, and today low-fat products abound in many food stores. Since many of the food products currently marketed by Old Dairy Industries are high in fat and cholesterol, the company's sales are likely to diminish greatly and their profits will no doubt decrease. We therefore advise Old Dairy stockholders to sell their shares and other investors not to purchase stock in this company."
最近一次调查中超过80％的回应者表达了他们想减少含脂肪和胆固醇的食品的愿望，现在很多食品商店都提供丰富的低脂肪食品。由于Old Dairy Industries当前生产的很多产品都有很高的脂肪和胆固醇含量，该公司的销量有可能严重下降，其盈利无疑会减少。因而我们建议Old Dairy的贡持有者抛出他们所持的股份，其他投资者也不应购买该公司的股份。
Over 80 percent their intake of foods containing fats and cholesterol 论断：Old Dairy Industries的销量可能会大幅减少，利润也无疑会降低，所以建议他该卖股份了，其他人也别入股进来。因为他大部分的产品都是高脂肪高卡路里的，而如今低脂肪产品很多，人们也有降低脂肪和卡路里摄入的愿望，为此他还引用了一个调查，表明有80%的人是这样的。
·论断的前提是不成立的。论者认为Old Dairy Industries不会有健康的产品，所以没有投资的价值。但这显然太过武断。论者没有提供证据表明Old Dairy Industries没有在开发此类产品，今后也坚决不卖健康产品。如果说Old Dairy Industries已经在开发健康产品的话，以它目前的市场份额，它的新产品还是有希望有很好的市场表现的。
·论断认为Old Dairy Industries的现有产品市场会缩小。他举例说一份调查的80%被访者有愿望降低脂肪卡路里摄入量，但他没有证据表明脂肪卡路里的含量是否是人们选择食品时的唯一或是最重要标准，因为其他像口味、价格以及品牌问题肯定还是会左右人们的选择。另外有关这份调查的有效性，代表性论者也没有给出资料，如果说这份调查的被调查者都是老人或是肥胖者，那么它显然不具备普遍说服力。没有这些资料，Old Dairy Industries的现有产品并不能被肯定会失去它以往的市场份额。 被调查的人以及人数的多少是否有足够的代表性?
·论断的另一个论据是商店里低脂肪的产品很多，但这显然与Old Dairy Industries的市场表现毫无关系。因为论者既没有例举出这些产品是哪种类型，蛋糕还是冰淇凌，与Old Dairy Industries的是不是相同，有没有对Old Dairy Industries的市场造成冲激，也没有说明人们是否更愿意买这些商品。这些产品的存在不足以证明Old Dairy Industries将失去它的市场。
·论断得出的也很没有道理。就算Old Dairy Industries对市场需求反应迟钝，正在一步步失去它的市场份额，也不能就此认为它一点都不具备投资价值。毕竟目前市场上大多数的食品市场由它占有，这种品牌号召力首先就非常吸引人。另外其他的因素比如销售渠道，管理能力，营销方式等等也都是考量这个企业是否有投资价值的标准。毕竟今天不是最后的宣判，Old Dairy Industries或其他有兴趣的投资人可以从今天开始改造Old Dairy Industries，比如说抓紧推出健康食品。品牌力量大 开发新产品
结论：论者没有深入了解Old Dairy Industries和目前的食品市场就仓促得出结论，这样非常不公平。如果要证明Old Dairy Industries的确不值得投资，论者还需要进一步证明该公司已无法开发出新产品，现在市场也已受到健康食品的严重冲击，另外还有就是Old Dairy Industries以前的所有优势也不复存在。
35.The following appeared in the summary of a study on headaches suffered by the residents of Mentia.
"Salicylates are members of the same chemical family as aspirin, a medicine used to treat headaches. Although many foods are naturally rich in salicylates, for the past several decades food-processing companies have also been adding salicylates to foods as preservatives. This rise in the commercial use of salicylates has been found to correlate with a steady decline in the average number of headaches reported by participants in our twenty-year study. Recently, food-processing companies have found that salicylates can also be used as flavor additives for foods. With this new use for salicylates, we can expect a continued steady decline in the number of headaches suffered by the average citizen of Mentia."
水杨酸酯和用来治疗头痛的药物--阿司匹林是同一类化合物。尽管很多食品天然富含水杨酸酯，过去几十年中食品加工公司仍然在食品中加入它来作为防腐剂。这种水杨酸酯在商业上的使用被发现与我们为期20年研究的参加者所报告的头痛发病的平均数量下降是相关的。最近，食品加工公司发现水杨酸酯也可以被用作食品香料。根据这种水杨酸酯的新用途，我们可以预期Mentia居患头痛症的数量将会持续稳步下降。
headaches，residents of Mentia 论断：S的新用途会继续平稳地降低居民平均头疼。因为S与阿斯匹林同属一个化学家庭。过去几十年中食品公司把S做为防腐剂添加到食品中，一项长达二十年的研究发现这种商业用途的增加伴随着头疼报告的下降。
·论断的前提不被必然保证。论断的前提是S能治疗或降低头疼。但是论者并没有提供有关的科学研究以证明S具有这样的作用。虽然论者说S与阿斯匹林同属一个化学家庭，但这只能说明他们的化学结构相近，并不能保证必然具有与阿斯匹林一样的作用。
·论断的论据不具备说服力。论断引用一份二十年的研究，这份研究说在S被食品商用于防腐剂的年代里，研究中报告头疼的人少了。首先论者没能排除有人头疼但没报告的可能性。其次是他也没能排除其他因素导致头疼下降的可能，比如医学发达，环境质量好了，人们生活规律了等等。这都不能说明S的食用降低了头疼的发生。
·论者的结论非常武断。他认为头疼还会有持续稳步下降，但就算S真能影响头疼也还可能会有其他因素导致头疼上升，比如生活节奏加快、工作压力突然加大等等。另外如果S对头疼有作用，是否是越多越好，论断也没有给出依据。S有无副作用 影响人们头疼率升高的其他主要因素呢
结论：论者所做的结论很武断，论者若想增加说服力还应该提供具体关于S的医疗作用的研究。
25.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of Hopewell.
"Two years ago, the town of Ocean View built a new municipal golf course and resort hotel. During the past two years, tourism in Ocean View has increased, new businesses have opened there, and Ocean View's tax revenues have risen by 30 percent. The best way to improve Hopewell's economy, and generate additional tax revenues, is to build a golf course and resort hotel similar to those in Ocean View."
两年前Ocean View建造了一个新的市立高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。过去两年中，Ocean View的旅客增加了，开设了很多新的商业，而且税收增加了30％。改Hopewell的经济，产生更多税收的最好途径就是建立一个和Ocean View类似的高尔夫球场和度假旅馆。
Ocean View ,Hopewell. 论断：建一个高尔夫场和假日饭店，是提升Hopewell经济和税收的最好方法。因为隔壁两年前这么做了，他们取了效果。
·论断的前题是本市没有高尔夫场和假日饭店，或是有但不够吸引人。但这一前提在论断中没有被保障成立。因为论断没有提供任何有关本市目前旅游设施的资料，这样我们就无法评估建一个高尔夫场等是必要还是浪费。前提不成立，论断也就不成立。
·论断引用隔壁的成功经验做论据，却不具备说服力。首先我们不知道隔壁的旅游收是否就比我们多，如果说他们提高30%以后还没我们多的话，他们是否具备学习价值就可怀疑。另外隔壁和我们的情况是否相同，论断也没提供。如果说他们是在农村而我们在城市，或是他们在海边，我们在高原，这样都使得他们的成功不必然出现在我们这里。
·论断说这是最好的方法也显然太过武断。论断没有提供资料以证明这种方法比其他的好，甚至没有告诉我们它能给我们带来多少增长，比我们以前的方法或是其他途径快在哪里。
结论：论者没有对本市的旅游设施进行了解，但凭其他地区的成功经验就要硬搬，非常荒谬。要增强说服力，论者还需要进一步了解本市旅游资源的优势与劣势。
76.The following appeared as part of an article in a health and beauty magazine.
"A group of volunteers participated in a study of consumer responses to the new Luxess face cream. Every morning for a month, they washed their faces with mild soap and then applied Luxess. At the end of that month, most volunteers reported a marked improvement in the way their skin looked and felt. Thus it appears that Luxess is truly effective in improving the condition of facial skin."
一组志愿者参加了一项关于消费者对新的Luxess面霜的反应的调查。在一个月的每个早晨，他们都用柔和香皂洗脸然后使用Luxess。一个援后，多数志愿者报告说他们皮肤的观感显著改。因此，这说明Luxess对于改面部皮肤状况确实有效。
1. The study was problematic: the number of volunteers, their facial skin condition. The study was held by Luxess itself, which makes the results open to doubt.
2. The improvement should be observed by scientific measurement rather by subjective perception. It is possible that the improvement felt by the volunteers just came from their psychological hints and was not real.
3. Other factors devoted to the improvement: the use of mild soaps, the habits of clean faces every morning, health diets and so on.
health and beauty, 论断：L对提高脸部皮肤状况真的有效。因为对一组自愿者为期一个月的试验中发现，大多数志愿者报告说他们的皮肤看起来和感觉上有很显著的提高。论断的所有推理及论据均来自这次试验，而对于试验的描述存在很多问题。
·没有关于样本人群的特征描述，不能证明参加试验的人群具有普遍代表性。论者没有提供有关志愿者人数，及试验前的皮肤状况，这样不能保证结果科学。如果说志愿者人数少，且皮肤状况有同一问题，结果只能证明L对某种状态的皮肤有效，而对其他人无效。
·没有关于试验过程的具体描述。论断提供的有关描述中不能让人排除是其他因素使志愿者皮肤改变，比如是中性肥皂，比如试验时或试验的地点气候宜人，比如试验者可能还在使用其他护肤品。没有这样的资料，也不能说明L有效。
·没有对试验结果科学的描述。单凭志愿者自我报告感觉和看起来是非常不科学的。因为存在心理因素的影响，认为换了一种护肤品皮肤一定会有变化，或是对于不好的情况不愿意报告。所以论者应提供对志愿者皮肤改变结果科学的分析。不然无法证明志愿者的皮肤因为L有了改善。
结论：论者的描述非常不科学，缺乏说服力。要增加说服力，还需要进一步提供有关这次试验的资料，比如志愿者的人数、年龄、皮肤状态，试验的过程有无其他因素干扰，并对结果进行科学量化的分析。
140.The following appeared in a report of the Committee on Faculty Promotions and Salaries at Elm City University.
"During her seventeen years as a professor of botany, Professor Thomas has proved herself to be well worth her annual salary of $50,000. Her classes are among the largest at the university, demonstrating her popularity among students. Moreover, the money she has brought to the university in research grants has exceeded her salary in each of the last two years. Therefore, in consideration of Professor Thomas' demonstrated teaching and research abilities, we recommend that she receive a $10,000 raise and a promotion to Department Chairperson; without such a raise and promotion, we fear that Professor Thomas will leave Elm City University for another college."
在Thomas教授作为植物学教授的17年里，她证明了自己确实是值50000元年薪的。她的班级是本校最大的班级之一，这说明她在学生中间的受欢迎度。而且，她给学校带来的研究捐助在过去两年中都超过了她的年薪。因此，鉴于Thomas教授已被证实的教学和研究能力，我们建议将她的年薪增加10000元，并提升为系主任；如果没有这些加薪和提升，我们担心Thomas教授将会离开Elm City大学到别的学校就职。
1. The largest classes do not equal to the highest popularity among students. It is possible that students are required to take her classes.
2. It is possible that research grants are lower in the past except the recent two years. And no evidence shows she will continue to bring higher research grants to the school than her salary, especially if she needs to spare more time in handling department affairs.
3. Other teachers might be more competent in holding the post of Department Chairperson.
4. No evidence shows she will leave the university. It is very likely that she loves the school and the students and does not care much about the salary and the post as she has already taught in ECU for 17 years. Other measures like improve teaching facilities and raising research fund to her that can prevent Tom from leaving
140.professor of botany,well worth salary 论断：我们建议给T教授加1万元薪水，并升任系主任。不这样做担心T教授会去另的学校。而在该教授17年的植物学教授的职业经历中，她已证明她非常值目前的年薪。她的课是学校的最大的，说明她在学生中很受欢迎。另外她过去两年每年带给学校的研究经费已经超出了她的薪水。
·前提，T教授可以会去别的学校。论者没有给出资料为什么为有这样的担心。
·前提，T教授值得这样的建议。首先课堂大与受学生欢迎没有必然联系，有可能她的课是必须上的。其次研究经费只在过去两年的情况，不一定以后还会有。教学能力好，不一定能当主任。琐事多，当心少了一个好教授，多了一个无能的主任。这样的情况也许也不只她一人，理由不充足当心引起其他人不满。
·结论，如果有地儿要挖T教授，是否加薪和升职就能挡得住。学生学校的声誉，可以给她改善研究设施和环境。结论：好的教授不一定是好的主任，好的教授也不会仅因为物质条件决定去留。
147.The following appeared in an editorial in a business magazine.
"Although the sales of Whirlwind video games have declined over the past two years, a recent survey of video-game players suggests that this sales trend is about to be reversed. The survey asked video-game players what features they thought were most important in a video game. According to the survey, players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers. Whirlwind has just introduced several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed at people 10 to 25 years old, the age-group most likely to play video games. It follows, then, that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months."
尽管Whirlwind游戏公司的游戏销量在过去两年中下降了，最近一次对于电子游戏玩家的调查显示这种销售趋势可能会逆转。该调查询问游戏玩家对于一个游戏来说他们所认为的最重要特征是什么。根据调查结果，玩家倾向于那些需要最先进的电脑的，具有活灵活现图象的游戏。Whirlwind刚刚面向10－25岁的人群开展了大力的广告活动来推广若干此类游戏，10－25岁是最喜欢玩游戏的年龄层。这说明Whirlwind公司的游戏销量将会在未来几个孕猛增。
1. The survey is problematic: the number of respondents, their age, their job. 被调查的也许都是一些从事游戏行业或者一些时间充裕的成人们 不足够证明10-25岁的人们就会喜欢
2. The decline of sales of W in the past two years might not be solved by the introduction of new games and advertising campaign. Other factors, such as the imprudent pricing and distribution strategies or poor management might be responsible for the problem.
3. Other features are also crucial though people regard graphics as the most important one. The introduced new games might have other rough edges or their competitors are introducing similar games at lower prices or with additional features that render them more attractive.
4. Whether the sales will increase dramatically and in such a short period should depend on the consumers. It is possible that W will need to wait longer to see the expected increase.
5. No evidence shows that W will benefit a lot from newly introduced games. The introduction of up to date computers might cost a lot of money which may not be paid back as revenue.
147.Whirlwind video games 论断：WW今后几个月的销售可能会急聚上升。因为一份对电视游戏玩家的调查显示，它的销售趋势会转变。这份调查问玩家们认为游戏的什么特点最重要，他们偏向有生动动画的游戏，这种游戏需要最新的电脑技术。WW刚刚用大规模广告向10到25岁的人群推出了几种这样的游戏，这个年纪的人群最可能玩电游。
·前提：关于10到25岁最可能玩电游，没有数字，没有根据，是瞎猜的。
·WV会卖得好，虽然玩家们认为这是最重要的特点，但并不表示生动了他们就一定买。因为游戏还有其他特点，比如类型、是否刺激、主题等。如果光有技术，思想不足，也不一定卖得好。而且他没有说用的什么技术，我们无法认同是否存在判断失误。10到25岁的人大多都是学生 没有时间 也没有金钱去购买最新的游戏 市场怎么会发展壮大
引进最先进的电脑，投入成本是否能与收益平衡？
·论据：广告针对10-25岁人群，但调查不是，这两者可能存在偏差。
·结论：尽管WV吸引人，可能经济萧条，或整个市场不好。
158.The Trash-Site Safety Council has recently conducted a statewide study of possible harmful effects of garbage sites on the health of people living near the sites. A total of five sites and 300 people were examined. The study revealed, on average, only a small statistical correlation between the proximity of homes to garbage sites and the incidence of unexplained rashes among people living in these homes. Furthermore, although it is true that people living near the largest trash sites had a slightly higher incidence of the rashes, there was otherwise no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people's health. Therefore, the council is pleased to announce that the current system of garbage sites does not pose a significant health hazard. We see no need to restrict the size of such sites in our state or to place any restrictions on the number of homes built near the sites.
垃圾场安全委员会最近对于垃圾场对住在附近的居健康的可能危害进行了一次调查。调查一共检测了5个垃圾场和300位居。研究发现平均而言，在垃圾场附近居住和这些居中一种未查明原因的皮炎之间只有很小的相关性。而且，尽管住在最大的垃圾场附近的居患皮炎的比例确实要高一些，但是垃圾场的规模和人们的健康之间是没有关联的。因此，委员会很高兴宣布现有的垃圾场系统不会对健康产生严重的健康危害。我们认为没有必要限制本州这类垃圾场的规模，或对于在垃圾场周围建造的住宅的数量加以任何限制。
1. The study covered insufficient number of representative garbage sites and people. And it is very likely the majority of 300 people are living far away from the sites.
2. The arguer does not give explanation of the higher incidence of the rashes of people living near the largest trash sites. It is possible that the garbage sites might pose a significant health hazard if reaching a considerable scale.
3. No evidence shows there is no correlation between the size of the garbage sites and people’s health. It is possible that the five sites studied were all in small sizes. 大的垃圾场发生率高证明有影响 小的垃圾场区的居民也许存有潜在的未发疾病
4. It is very likely that other diseases such as respiratory diseases or psychological diseases might develop due to living near the garbage sites.
5. The garbage sites might pose a serious hazard as their scales increasing with no restrictions of the size and the homes built nearby in the near future.
158.harmful effects on the health of people living near garbage sites 论断：没有必要对垃圾场的面积作限制，也没有必要对垃圾场旁的房屋建筑数目做限制。因为目前的垃圾系统没有造成大的健康危害。最近对州上五个垃圾场和300个住在附近的人的研究显示，住户住在垃圾场边和解释不清的疹一般只有很小的数据关系。而且虽然住在最大的垃圾场旁的人会有较高的轻度疹发生次数，但垃圾场大小和人们的健康也没有关系。 所有基础就是这个调查，但调查有漏洞。 ·有无皮疹不能说明是否对健康有害，论者也没有提供为什么用皮疹作唯一参照标准。 ·既然最大的垃圾场旁边有较高的发生次数，就说明有可能它对健康的影响比其他的更大。The argue treats the evidence for the occurence of a condition under which a circumstance will occur as the conclusive evidence that a circumstance will not occur. ·目前没有危害，如果不限制危害有可能发生。
167.A folk remedy* for insomnia, the scent in lavender flowers, has now been proved effective. In a recent study, 30 volunteers with chronic insomnia slept each night for three weeks on lavender-scented pillows in a controlled room where their sleep was monitored. During the first week, volunteers continued to take their usual sleeping medication. They slept soundly but wakened feeling tired. During the second week, the volunteers discontinued their medication. As a result, they slept less soundly than the previous week and felt even more tired. During the third week, the volunteers slept longer and more soundly than in the previous two weeks. This shows that over a short period of time lavender cures insomnia.
A folk remedy is usually a plant-based form of treatment common to traditional forms of medicine, ones that developed before the advent of modern medical services and technology.
一种治疗失眠的偏方--薰衣草花香，现在被证明是有效的。在一次最近的调查中，30名患有慢性失眠的志愿者在三周之内每晚都在一个受监视的控制室内睡在带薰衣草花香的枕头上。在第一周，志愿者继续服用他们常用的安眠药。他们睡得很沉但醒来时很累。在第二周，他们不服用药物。结果与前一周相比他们睡得不那么沉并且感觉更累。在第三周，他们睡得比前两周时间长而且更深。这表明薰衣草在短时间内治愈了失眠。
*偏方通常是一种在传统医药中常见的植物治疗形式，这些传统医药是在现代医药服务和科技出现之前发展起来的。
1. The number of volunteers is insufficient and cannot represent all people who suffered from chronic insomnia. Their sleeping condition before the experiment is unknown. It is possible that they nearly recover from their insomnia.
2. The way the experiment is conducted is problematic. It is very likely from the experiments during the first and second week that it is the sleeping medication they take not the scent of lavender flowers that help them sleep sounder. And whether these volunteers take their usual sleeping medication is untold. It is entirely possible that it is the medication that helps to cure their insomnia.
3. Other factors might contribute to the relief of the symptoms of insomnia: background music, less noise and absolutely quiet environment, or even the soft pillow.
4. The condition of volunteers might be an aberration or just a temporary relief from insomnia. It is possible that in the fourth week or further, those patients still have some problems with sleeping as they accustomed with the scent of lavender flowers.
167.lavender cure insomnia 论断：薰衣草对治疗失眠有效。因为最近的研究中，30位有失眠症的志愿者在三个星期里睡在有薰衣草药片的房里。第一个星期志愿者继续服用普通的失眠药，他们睡得很香但是醒来会觉得累。第二个星期，志愿者停药，结果他们睡得不那么香感觉更累。到第三个星期，志愿者睡得比前两上星期都要香要长。
推论以研究为基础，但这还只是初步的研究，并不足以得出医学上的结论。因为30位以及三个星期都不足以说明问题。但是抛开这些不考虑，论者的推理过程仍有错误。
·第三个星期志愿者醒来以后的感觉论者没有提供。是比前两星期更加疲劳还是什么。事实上论者提到了志愿者在停药的第二个星期里睡眠非常不好，这有可能是第三个星期睡的时间长的主要原因，因为他们实在太累。所以没有醒来后的感觉作标准，无法评价志愿者的睡眠质量，因为无法知道薰衣草的作用。
·研究本身对志愿者有影响。志愿者三个星期里的睡眠变化与对环境的熟悉有关，第三个星期完全熟悉了，所以不紧张了。 ·在短期内的概念不清楚。
187.The following appeared as part of an article in a health magazine.
"A new discovery warrants a drastic change in the diets of people living in the United States. Two scientists have recently suggested that omega -3 fatty acids (found in some fish and fish oils) play a key role in mental health. Our ancestors, who ate less saturated fat and more polyunsaturated fat, including omega -3 fatty acids, were much less likely to suffer from depression than we are today. Moreover, modern societies-such as those in Japan and Taiwan-that consume large quantities of fish report depression rates lower than that in the United States. Given this link between omega -3 fatty acids and depression, it is important for all people in the United States to increase their consumption of fish in order to prevent depression."
一项新发现表明生活在美国的居饮食将会发生显著变化。两名学者最近指出omega-3脂肪酸（它在一些鱼类以及鱼油中被发现）在精神健康方面有很重要的作用。我们的祖先食用更少的饱和脂肪和更多的多重不饱和脂肪，包括omega-3脂肪酸，他们患抑郁症的可能性比我们现在要低很多。而且，食用大量鱼类的现代社会--比如象日本和台湾那样的社会--抑郁症的上报率比在美国要低。基于以上omega-3脂肪酸和抑郁症的联系，让所有的美国人增加鱼类的食用量以防止抑郁症是很重要的。
1. Unfair assumption that our ancestors have the similar scenarios with us. It is possible that their health condition and body structure has a lot of differences with us. Besides, they might have less pressure than we do as to keep our pace with the speed of social development and of our competitive peers. And other factors might also contribute to more sufferings of depression: the change of environment, lifestyles and eating habits.
2. It is possible that people in Japan and Taiwan do not realize or just hope to concede their depression. And people in these places and in USA might not be identical in their body’s response to absorbing omega-3 fatty acids. It is very possible that some other factors like healthy diet and lifestyle contributes to their less depression instead of omega 报告没有不代表真的不存在.
3. It might not be necessary for all the people to increase their consumption of fish. It is possible that some people have already consumed a large amount of fish, or some are allergic to fish, or some have no need to prevent depression. Omega-3 fatty acids exists only in some kind of fish and its oils, and thus the increasing consumption of fish, especially fish without the certain substance, might not be helpful in preventing depression.
4. The arguer also neglects the side effect of over absorption of omega-3 fatty acids. Other methods to prevent depression should also be taken in to account.
187.omega -3 fatty acids (found in some fish and fish oils) 论断：对所有美国人来说更多吃鱼来防止消沉很重要。因为两个科学家最近说O酸这种在一些鱼和鱼油里发现的东西对心理健康很有影响。我们的先人就少吃饱和脂肪多吃不饱和脂肪，其中就包括O酸，他们就比我们今天少消沉。另外，一些现代社会比如大量食用鱼的日本和台湾，他们报告消沉的论就比美国少。
·前提，吃鱼防止消沉。没有证据，两个科学家是说在某些鱼里发现的O酸，不是所有的鱼里都含有O酸。概念偷换。
·证据，科学家的证据值得怀疑：先人与我们社会不同、经济状况不同、生活节奏不同，人际关系复杂度不同，当然不能比。其次：台湾和日本，那等小国情况相对美国可能会简单一些。也没有资料证明他们少消沉就是因为吃了鱼。其它情况问题，比如经济状况，社会问题等等。
·结论：干嘛所有人呀，有人对鱼敏感呢，还有些人吃得也太多了吧。
200.Statistics collected from dentists indicate that three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist. This evidence suggests that men are more likely to be distressed about having dental work done than women are. Thus, dentists who advertise to attract patients should target the male consumer and emphasize both the effectiveness of their anesthetic techniques and the sensitivity of their staff to nervous or suffering patients.
从牙医那里获得的统计数据表明在看牙医时男性昏厥的次数是女性的三倍。这一证据说明男性在接受牙科治疗时比女性更容易感到痛楚。因此，那些做广告来吸引患者的牙医应该定位于男性顾客，并同时强调他们的麻醉技术和他们的职员对于紧张和痛苦患者的敏感度。
1. The statistics fail to mention the total number of men or women visiting the dentist. It is possible that the men patients are more than women patients. And the proportion of fainted times of men is even less than that of women.
2. Other factors contribute to the scenarios: the difference in body structure. It is also possible that men choose to visit dentists when the problems with teeth are much serious, while women visiting dentists much frequently even the problems are just small or in an early stage. Individual psychology
3. Since women also account for some of the faint cases, the one-targeted advertisement is unreasonable. It is also possible that women patronize dentists more than men and they are more likely to be attracted and influenced by advertisements.
4. No evidence shows advertisements will be effective to men. Other measures might be more useful.
200.three times more men than women faint while visiting the dentist 论断：打广告吸引病人的牙医应该把目标放在男顾客身上，并强调他们麻醉技术的效果以及员工对病人紧张或痛苦的敏感。因为从牙医那儿收集的数据表明，看牙医晕的男人比女人多三倍，这显示男人比女人接受牙治疗时更紧张。
·前提，男人比女人晕得多。男女病人的各自总数没有提，有可能男人牙病的多。而且也没有提病症，有可能男人的牙问题比女人的严重。
·男人比女人看牙医容易紧张。女人可能也紧张，但不是晕，还有其它的表现，比如说心里，还有的干脆不去。
·结论，打广告：没人说医生敏感就不紧张，得技术好。不关女病人，万一不看牙医的女人多呢。
160.As people grow older, an enzyme known as PEP increasingly breaks down the neuropeptide chemicals involved in learning and memory. But now, researchers have found compounds that prevent PEP from breaking neuropeptides apart. In tests, these compounds almost completely restored lost memory in rats. The use of these compounds should be extended to students who have poor memory and difficulty in concentrating-and therefore serious problems in school performance. Science finally has a solution for problems neither parents nor teachers could solve.
随着人们的衰老，一种已知叫做PEP的酶不断地分解与学习和记忆有关的神经化学物质。但现在研究人员已经发现了一些阻止PEP分解神经化学键的化合物。在试验中，这些化合物几乎完全恢复了老鼠失去的记忆。这些化合物的使用可以扩展到那些记忆力较差和因注意力不能集中而在学习中存在严重问题的学生。科学最终能够解决家长和教师都无法解决的问题。
1. The compounds might not take effect on human. It is possible that the compounds just stimulate a special substance contained in the body of rats and human body lacks that special substance.
2. The compounds might have little impacts on students as they are so young that such breakdown of neuropeptide chemicals might occur occasionally or even does not occur. 学生们正是发育期怎么会衰老呢 怎么可能分泌PEP呢
3. Other factors might be responsible for the serious problems of students’ school performance: motivation, natural ability, the education within home environment.
4. The problems might be solved through other ways, such as more direction, more concern and training given by teachers and parents.
160.enzyme known as PEP 论断：这个混和物的应用应该扩大到记忆不好，不容易集中精力的学生身上。因为最近研究者们发现这个混和物可以防止PEP分解某种神经。在试验中，这些混和物几乎使老鼠恢复了所有记忆。（PEP是一种酶，随着人变老它会逐渐分解某种和学习、记忆有关的神经）·老鼠跟人不一样，实验最终还需要在人身上进行。 ·PEP分解神经是否在青少年时期就会发生。 ·学生记忆不好和不集中精力的主要原因不是生理原因，懒惰、贪玩是老师家长解决不了的。 ·会不会有副作用。
7.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Clearview newspaper.
"In the next mayoral election, residents of Clearview should vote for Ann Green, who is a member of the Good Earth Coalition, rather than for Frank Braun, a member of the Clearview town council, because the current members are not protecting our environment. For example, during the past year the number of factories in Clearview has doubled, air pollution levels have increased, and the local hospital has treated 25 percent more patients with respiratory illnesses. If we elect Ann Green, the environmental problems in Clearview will certainly be solved."
在下一次市长选举中，Clearview的市应投Good Earth Coalition成员Ann Green的票，而不是Clearview市委成员Frank Braun，因为当前的市委成员没有保护我们的环境。举例来说，去年Clearview的工厂数量翻了一番，空气污染水平增加了，而且当地医院因呼吸道疾病就诊的数量增加了25％。如果我们选举Ann Green，Clearview的环境问题肯定将被解决。
Clearview mayoral election 论断：选Ann Green，环境问题肯定能解决，因为他是Good Earth Coalition。论断认为人们没有选另一位政府成员是因为现在的环境太糟糕，污染非常严重。
·论断太武断。论为选一位环境组织的成员当市长，环境污染问题就能解决。但实际上作为环境组织的成员只能表明他对环境很关注，而政府要解决污染问题，除了关心以外还会有大量具体工作要作。比如协调其他部门，比如对工业生产的了解等等，这些都不是出身就必然能具备的素质。论断没有提供该候选人的这方面资料。 As an effective mayor he must not only deal with the issue of environment but also some other important events like economy ,education, healthcare and transportation and so on. It takes a lot of efforts and capacities to be a good mayor, the author didn’t mention how Ann dealt with environment and the achievements and his other crucial skills to meet the standard of being a mayor.
·论断不公平。说现行政府不关心保护环境，举例说是过去几年工厂的数目加倍，空气污染的程度在上升，而当地医院治疗的呼吸病患者也比以前多了25%。但是论断没有告诉我们新增的工厂是否是污染型产业，这些工厂有没有采取防止污染的措施，没有这种资料我们无法判断这些工厂对于环境污染的影响程度，因为很可能这些工厂是污染少的新兴产业，或是采取了有效措施。而说到空气污染的问题，一方面这是一个全球共同面临的状况，论断没有说明该市与其他相同特征的城市相比，或是与早前的历史相比，这个数字是大是小，从而无法判断，另一方面空气污染并不一定是因为该市自身的问题，因为风向的流动，污染有可能是从其他地方来的。而医院里呼吸病病人增多同样缺乏判断根据，呼吸病发生的原因很多，有天生的，有因为老化的，论断没有说明新增病人的病因是否因为污染引起。
·论断对另一名候选人也很不公平。就算真像论断所说现行政府不关心环境，就认为他也不关心境。论断没有提供该候选人是否有破坏环境的纪录，是否曾促进一些破坏环境的措施。因为不能排除他也很关心环境保护，只是他的声音被政府其他声音所淹没。
结论：论断非常不公平也很武断。他既没有提供候选人在解决环境问题上的成果和能力，也没有提供任何可以证明现行政府以及另一候选人不关心环境的证据。如果要号召选民们同意他的意见，他还需要进一步提供这方面的资料。
162.A recent study shows that people living on the continent of North America suffer 9 times more chronic fatigue and 31 times more chronic depression than do people living on the continent of Asia. Interestingly, Asians, on average, eat 20 grams of soy per day, whereas North Americans eat virtually none. It turns out that soy contains phytochemicals called isoflavones, which have been found to possess disease-preventing properties. Thus, North Americans should consider eating soy on a regular basis as a way of preventing fatigue and depression.
最近一次研究显示居住在北美大陆的人患慢性疲劳和慢性抑郁症的数量分别为居住在亚洲大陆居的9倍和31倍。有趣的是，亚洲人平均每天食用20克大豆，而北美人几乎不吃。人们发现大豆含有一种具有抗病效的植物化合物单黄酮。因此，北美人应该考虑经常食用大豆作为预防疲劳和抑郁的方法。
1. It is possible that Asians who suffer from chronic depression and fatigue do not complain about or realize of them. It is possible that Asians concern more about other diseases and neglect the slight symptoms of chronic depression and fatigue. 也许亚洲人也有此状况 只是未上报或者意识到
2. Other factors might contribute to Asians less suffer from those diseases (other eating habits, daily routine, nature constitution, exercise, environment and working condition)
3. The way of eating soy might not be effective to North Americans as to Asians.（different physical structure, different climate, different lifestyle and eating habits）
4. Other side effects of frequently eating too soy beans? Maybe soy beans contain some other elements that is potentially harmful to people. And some people are allergic.
5. other ways to prevent fatigue and depression: other healthy food; exercises; adequate working hours, healthy psychology etc.
162.North America fatigue, depression, Asia, soy 论断：北美洲的人应该考虑经常吃点黄豆以防止疲劳和消沉。因为黄豆黄有一种叫I的化学成分，有防止得病的特征。最近一份研究发现北美洲的人比亚洲人多9倍慢性疲劳和31倍慢性消沉。而亚洲人每天会吃20克黄豆，北美人却一点都不吃。 ·那种化学成份不一定能防止疲劳和消沉。 ·论据有问题，调查没有提供数据，无从判断调查是否能代表两地的情况准确。但从结论来看忽略了一些因素，比如北美人和亚洲人体质有差别，北美人工作压力比亚洲人大等等。 ·对亚洲人有效，不一定对北美人有效。
165.The following appeared in a business magazine.
"As a result of numerous consumer complaints of dizziness and nausea, Promofoods requested that eight million cans of tuna be returned for testing last year. Promofoods concluded that the cans did not, after all, contain chemicals that posed a health risk. This conclusion is based on the fact that the chemists from Promofoods tested samples of the recalled cans and found that, of the eight chemicals most commonly blamed for causing symptoms of dizziness and nausea, five were not found in any of the tested cans. The chemists did find that the three remaining suspected chemicals are naturally found in all other kinds of canned foods."
去年由于有大量消费者投诉说产生了眩晕和恶心，Promofoods要求800万罐金枪鱼回收检测。Promofoods下结论说这些罐头根本不含任何有健康危害的化学物质。这一结论基于这样的事实，即Promofoods的化学家测试了回收的罐头样本，并发现8种最常见的导致眩晕和恶心症状的化学物质中，有五种都没有在任何被测试的罐头中被发现。化学家确实发现剩下三种受怀疑的化学物质在所有其他罐头食品中都存在。
1. The test might be problematic as the number of recalled cans tested or the selection method used is untold. It is possible that the samples cannot represent all the returned cans
2. It is very likely that the one or more of the three remaining chemicals might be the major villain of the two typical diseases.虽然其他事物里也有和三种元素但可能tuna罐头里的成分超标了而影响人们的健康
3. It is possible that other substance besides the 8 most common chemicals might cause the symptoms.
4. The tuna might cause other diseases, which have not been detected, besides dizziness and nausea.
165.dizziness and nausea，tuna can 论断：金枪鱼罐头不含造成健康危险的化学成分。P的结论基础是化学家对收回的罐头样品的测试发现八种最常造成两种病症的化学成份中有五种这些罐头里根本没有，而被发现的另外三种仍有怀疑的化学成份在所有罐头食物里都有。 ·八种常见的以外还有其他不常见但同样会造成头晕恶心的。 ·三种哪儿都有的可能含量超标。另外食物不同作用也会不同。 ·样品选取是否科学，另五种还是有可能存在于其它的里面，或是已售出的罐头里的。
166.The following appeared in a local newspaper.
"People should not be misled by the advertising competition between Coldex and Cold-Away, both popular over-the-counter cold medications that anyone can purchase without a doctor's prescription. Each brand is accusing the other of causing some well-known, unwanted side effect: Coldex is known to contribute to existing high blood pressure and Cold-Away is known to cause drowsiness. But the choice should be clear for most health-conscious people: Cold-Away has been on the market for much longer and is used by more hospitals than is Coldex. Clearly, Cold-Away is more effective."
人们不应该被任何人不用医生处方就可以买到的OTC药品Coldex和Cold-Away之间的广告战所误导。每个牌子都指责另一种药会导致某种众所周知的不良副作用：Coldex导致血压升高而Cold-Away导致嗜睡。但对于多数关心健康的人来说选择是明显的：Cold-Away比Coldex上市时间更长而且被更多的医院所使用。显然，Cold-Away效果更好。
1. Well-established products Cold-Away are not necessarily better than newer ones Coldex (new technology, active ingredients, prescription, process procedures)
2. The popularity of Cold-Away in hospitals might result from other factors (low cost, advertising campaign, business promotion). It is very likely that as it has been on the market for a long time and thus hospitals will preserve more of it than Coldex.
3. For those without high blood pressure wishes and hope to avoid drowsiness, Coldex might be more effective.
166.advertising competition,over-the-counter cold medications 论断：CA更有效。因为CA推出的时间长，并被更多医院使用。无论CA还是C都会引起负作用，CA引起嗑睡，C引起高血压。大家都不应被两家的广告竞争所误导。没有直接证据证明CA更有效，而时间长，用得多不一定代表它就好。
·C是新产品，所以在市场上时间短。但它完全有可能用更好更新的技术成果，以及吸取CA的经验，从而比CA更有疗效。
·更多医院用不能说明好。首先可能是因为商业等其他原因使得医院用CA。其次，既然该种药品不需要医生建议可以柜台买，说明医生的专业知识并不是最好的建议。
结论：C的负作用在大多数人看来可能比较严重，所以限制了它的广泛使用。但是对于治疗感冒它还是有可能比CA有效，所以尤其对于没有高血压危险的人来说，CA不一定比C更有效。
152.The following is a letter to the head of the tourism bureau on the island of Tria.
"Erosion of beach sand along the shores of Tria Island is a serious threat to our island and our tourist industry. In order to stop the erosion, we should charge people for using the beaches. Although this solution may annoy a few tourists in the short term, it will reduce the number of people using the beaches and will raise money for replenishing the sand. Replenishing the sand, as was done to protect buildings on the nearby island of Batia, will help protect buildings along our shores, thereby reducing these buildings' risk of additional damage from severe storms. And since the areas along the shore will be more attractive as a result, the beaches will be preserved and the area's tourist industry will improve over the long term."
Tria岛海岸沙滩的侵蚀对于我们岛和我们的旅游业是个严重的威胁。为阻止侵蚀，我们应该对使用海滩的人收费。尽管这一解决
方案
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会在短期内触怒少量游客，它将会减少使用海滩的人数并增加补充沙子的资金。象临近的Batia岛一样补充沙子将会有助于对我们沿岸建筑的保护，从而减少这些房屋在大风暴中受损的危险。并且由于这会导致沿岸地区更具吸引力，海滩将会受到保护，本地区的旅游业将会在长远得到发展。
1. The charge of beach-access fees might deter so many tourists in the long term that tourism might be severely influenced. Or it is also possible that tourists are willing to pay the extra fees and thus the beach will still be crowded and the construction of preservation cannot be conducted.
2. Unfair assumption that B and T are identical in the ways that are relevant to the problems. It is possible that the replenishing the sand will not necessarily help protect buildings as other factors, such as the quality of sand, the times of storms attacking, the structure of buildings, might be different.
3. No evidence shows the areas along the shore will be more attractive. It is possible that tourists prefer beautiful scenery to buildings, and thus the protection of buildings might have little to do with the attractiveness. Other measures might be more effective in appealing tourists.(开展展一些娱乐性的沙滩服务)
4。There are man other factors that cause sand erosion instead of the use of the sand like the erosion of seawater and the damage of tourists themselves while travelling. Possible that tourists’ lack of the sense of protecting the travelling spot is the major cause.
5. As we know that sand is solvent in water so if severe storms came, replenishing the sand will do little help. There are many other ways to protect building on the shore: enhance the building structures
152.Erosion of beach sand,tourist industry 论断：我们应该向使用沙滩的人收费，这样可以降低沙滩的使用而且可为填沙攒钱。填沙可以帮助保护沙滩边的房子，降低受严重风暴的特别破坏的危险（隔壁B岛用填沙保护建筑）。（这些都可以防止侵蚀）目前海滩沙的侵蚀是对岛和旅游业的严重危胁，而如果防止侵蚀岸边地区会因此而更吸引人，海滩也会因此保留，而且长远来看旅游业也会提高。
·降低人们使用沙滩不一定能保护沙滩，。 ·建筑被保护了不一定就使沙滩更吸引人，因而也不一定能促进旅游业。气候问题，服务问题。
2.Charging people for using the beaches does not prevent sand erosion. There many factors exist. the tourists themselves can be one . Moreover, no service in beaches will result in decrease of tourists.
3. The preserved sand can do little help to the buildings in severe storms.
233.The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of a company that builds shopping malls throughout the country.
"The surface of a section of Route 101, paved two years ago by McAdam Road Builders, is now badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. In another part of the state, a section of Route 66, paved by Appian Roadways more than four years ago, is still in good condition. Appian Roadways has recently purchased state-of-the-art paving machinery, and it has hired a new quality-control manager. Because of its superior work and commitment to quality, we should contract with Appian Roadways rather than McAdam Road Builders to construct the access roads for all our new shopping malls."
两年前由McAdam筑路公司修筑的101公路的一段，表面现已严重开裂，并存在危险的坑洼。在同一州的另一个地区，四年多以前由Appian筑路公司修筑的66公路的一段现在依然状况良好。Appian公司最近购买了最先进的筑路机械，并雇佣了一名新的质量监控经理。由于Appian公司更优秀的工作和质量保证，我们应该和他们而不是McAdam公司签订
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修筑我们新的商业街前面的通道。
1. The comparative condition of the two stretches of pavement might not be responsible for the comparative quality of two contractors’ work. It is possible that other factors contribute to the erosion and damage of the pavement: extreme climate, high traffic volume(交通流量), soil or other geological conditions, overload traffic.
2. No evidence shows the recent equipment acquisition and personnel decision will improve rather than deteriorate the work of A. It is possible that the new manager lacks adequate experience and is not competent for the job. It is also possible that it takes a long time for the leadership of the manager and the cooperation with the employees to be achieved. All these factors might impact the efficiency and quality of A’s work. Besides, no evidence shows M has made no improvements. It is possible that M has made greater progress.就算是M公司不好但那也是两年前的事了，没证据证明M公司没有提高。说不定M公司改进后比A公司还好。或者也许M只是不擅长修筑公路但是对于修筑商场的通道还是很在行的。
3. No evidence shows the company has only the two alternatives. It is possible that the company can engage one of many other paving contractors instead. 不只只有M和A公司嘛，完全可以选择其他公司的服务
233.Route 101 badly cracked and marred by dangerous potholes. 论断：我们应该和A签合同建所有新商场的通道。因为它们的工作更好质量有承诺。M在两年前铺的101道现在已经严重损坏，而A四年前铺的66道现在还挺好。A现在买了新的机器，而且还雇了新的经理。 ·前提，A修的路比M好。论据问题，可能101道在市中心，或是常有重型货车通过，再不然还有地面的地质问题，都是造成损毁严重的原因。66可能就容易多了。 ·前提，A比M好。没有直接的证据证明A现在比M好，相反，新机器和新经理，都说明M和以前修66时不一样了，磨和问题，适应问题，都不是以前的经验能保证的。 ·结论：商场的活可能跟66完全不一样，另外就通过一次工程就得出永久结论，不公平。
26.The following appeared in a memo from the chairperson of the school board in the town of Saluda.
"For the past five years, Mr. Charles Schade has been the music director at Steel City High School, and during that time the school band from Steel City High has won three regional band competitions. In addition, the quality of the music rehearsal facilities and musical instruments at Steel City High has improved markedly over the past five years. Because of such successes at Steel City High, the Saluda school board should hire Mr. Schade to plan and direct the general music education programs for the entire Saluda school system."
过去五年中，Charles Schade担任了Steel City高中的音乐教学主任，在那期间学校乐队在三次地区乐队比赛中获胜。而且，Steel City高中的音乐排练设备和乐器在过去五年中明显得到改。由于Steel City高中所获得的这些成，Saluda学校委员会应该雇佣Mr.Schade来为整个Saluda学校系统规划和指导总体音乐教育计划。
Steel City High School,Mr. Charles Schade 论断：应该雇Mr. Charles Schade去指导整个学校系统的普通音乐教育课程。因为在他指导钢铁中学音乐教育的五年里，该校的乐队获得了三次地区乐队比赛。而且该校的音乐水平和设施也都有显著提高。
·论断的前提是目前整个学校系统的普通音乐教育课程没有人指导，或是指导的人不好。但论没有提供任何资料以确保这个前提成立。如果本来没有人指导，那么是否需要有人去做这件事？如果已经有人，那么为什么这个人做得一定没有Mr. Charles Schade好？这些论断都没有告诉我们，这个前提也就不一定成立。
·论断认为Mr.Schade非常成功，并引用他这五年在钢铁中学的成绩来说明。但这个论据中却有很多疑点。首先钢铁中学原来的音乐教育情况怎样？Mr.Schade是否使这一点更好了？学校的乐队在五年前的成绩怎样，有没有拿过地区奖？这个学校是不是特别重视音乐教育？没有这些资料，论断无法证明学校的成绩是因为Mr.Schade而取得的。证据也就没有说服力。
·这个结论没有道理。论者因为Mr.Schade在钢铁中学的成功，而建议让他去指导整个学校的普通教育。但是这是两个不同性质的工作，钢铁中学的工作是具体，操作性的，而整个学校系统的普通音乐教育的设计与指导需要宏观的把握，以及各方面的协调能力。没有证据保证Mr.Schade能够把在钢铁中学的成绩带到新的工作中来。
结论：论断考虑不周全。他既没有提供有利客观的证据说明Mr.Schade的能力，也没有告诉我们一个学校的成功与普通音乐教育设计有多大关联。
179.The following is a memorandum written by the director of personnel to the president of the Cedar Corporation.
"It would be a mistake to rehire the Good-Taste Company to supply the food in our employee cafeteria next year. It is the second most expensive caterer in the city. In addition, its prices have risen in each of the last three years, and it refuses to provide meals for people on special diets. Just last month three employees complained to me that they no longer eat in the cafeteria because they find the experience 'unbearable.' Our company should instead hire Discount Foods. Discount is a family-owned local company and it offers a varied menu of fish and poultry. I recently tasted a sample lunch at one of the many companies that Discount serves and it was delicious-an indication that hiring Discount will lead to improved employee satisfaction."
继续雇佣Good-Taste公司在明年为我们员工餐厅提供饮食将是一个错误。它是本市价格第二贵的餐饮服务商。而且，其价格在过去三年中持续上涨，并且它拒绝为那些有特殊饮食要求的人提供服务。上个月有三名员工向我投诉说他们再也不会在员工餐厅用餐了，因为他们发现那种经历"无法受"。我们公司应该雇佣Discount Foods。Discount是一个本地的家族企业，它提供鱼类和禽类的多种菜单。我最近在由Discount提供服务的公司之一品尝了一份样品，味道很好，这说明雇佣Discount将会带来更高的员工满意度。
1. The author didn’t mention the food prices of DF. It is possible that DF is more expensive than GTC, or there might be few food caterers in the city and their prices are really close to each other. Other factors that cause higher price: vegetables become more expensive, higher tax or higher rent fees.也许价格都涨了而且DF比GC更贵。
2. Personal experiences cannot represent all employees. It is possible that the three employees and the arguer are those who order special diets or their tastes are unique or they might benefit from the shift from GTC to DF. Besides, the food sample the arguer tastes cannot represent the overall quality of the food it offers.(只是个人口味喜好，不能代表权公司的职员)
3. No evidence shows DF is better in the ways mentioned that are the shortcoming of GTC. It is possible that DF neither offers special diets. And it offers even fewer varieties and less satisfactory services than GTC. And it lacks dishes of beef and pork which might be the mainstream of people’s diet. No evidence shows that the whole employees love poultry and fish instead of the mainstream food served in GT.
4. Other caterers might have more favorable conditions.
179.food in employee cafeteria 论断：公司应该用D公司，重新雇用G是个错误。因为G是这个城市第二贵的，他们的价格过去三年里一直在涨，而且不给饮食有特殊要求的供餐。上个月就有三个员工向我抱怨他们不再在食堂吃饭了，因为经历不可忍受。雇用D，D是一个当地家庭公司，它的菜单有各种各样的鱼和猪肉。我最近在一个他们服务的公司吃了个品尝午餐，味道很不错——这是一个用他们会提高员工满意程度的标志。
·前提G不好，three employee and just last month does not make sense. Maybe for their insatiable contentment or just happenchances. Perhaps a survey over this topics should be carried before any conclusion arrived.
·D好，证据不够。首先，the arguer's gustation, however just once, cannot represent that of the whole compnay's. It is very possible that the majority of employees reject the food served by D. 其次，"Delicious" does not equal nutrition, which is of more importance in judging the food service.
·价格问题，G说了干嘛不提D的，它可能也挺贵的。而且既然是家小公司，hygiene and amout quality is problematic.
232.The following appeared in a memo from the sales manager of Eco-Power, a company that manufactures tools and home appliances.
"Many popular radio and television commercials use memorable tunes and song lyrics to call attention to the products being advertised. Indeed, a recent study of high school students showed that 85 percent could easily recognize the tunes used to advertise leading soft drinks and fast-food restaurants. Despite our company's extensive advertising in magazines during the past year, sales of our home appliances declined. Therefore, to boost company profits, we should now switch to advertisements featuring a distinctive song."
很多受欢迎的广播和电视广告都使用易于记忆的音乐和歌曲来吸引人们对于广告商品的注意。确实，最近一次对于高中学生的研究发现85％的人能够轻易地识别畅销软饮料和快餐厅广告所用的音乐。尽管我们公司去年在杂志上做了大量广告，我们家居用品的销量还是下降了。因此，为增加公司利润，我们现在应该改为使用独特歌曲的广告。
1. No evidence shows the high school students will be the potential buyers for the home appliances of EP. Their high rate of tune-recognition does not mean that they will consume the products advertised. Besides, this demographic group(这一人群) might not be the same group that purchases tools and home appliances. And no evidence shows they would be more likely to buy EP products. It is possible that advertisement of other brands will also catch their sight.
2. No evidence shows the current ad strategy is the cause of EP’s declining profits. It is possible that other factors contribute to the decline: the demand generally has slowed(总需求下降), ineffective management or distribution strategies, imprudent pricing, unsatisfactory after-sales services.
3. It is possible that the costs of achieving a high rate of tune-recognition(高认知率) outweigh the increased sales it brings. A tune can be communicated only via such media as radio and television, which might charge more for advertising than print media does. It is possible that EP lack the resources to ensure the sort of tune recognition which other companies have achieved.
232.memorable tunes and song lyrics being advertised 论断：我们应该转为用有特点的广告歌。因为最近对于高中学生的调查显示他们中85%的人能很容易地认出最流行的软饮料和快餐店的广告曲调。而我们公司过去几睥在杂志上投放了大量的广告，但销售却在下降。
·前提，销售下跌是因为广告。没有证据证明。可能是质量，款式一直没有跟上需求。
·前提，广告歌曲有效，论据的问题。首先调查是对高中生的，EP不可能希望高中生会是家庭用具的消费群体。而其消费群比如主妇等，是否也有对广告歌曲一样的反应，不被保证。其次，软饮料和家庭用品性质不一样，bought-once product/can make repeated buying.
·结论：费用问题要考虑，广告歌曲请人写，还要通过电视广播广告，这些都比杂志的费用高。
173.The following is a memorandum issued by the publisher of a newsmagazine, Newsbeat, in the country of Dinn.
"Our poorest-selling magazine issues over the past three years were those that featured international news stories on their front covers. Over the same period, competing news-magazines have significantly decreased the number of cover stories that they devote to international news. Moreover, the cost of maintaining our foreign bureaus to report on international news is increasing. Therefore, we should decrease our emphasis on international news and refrain from displaying such stories on our magazine covers."
过去三年中我们销量最低的几期杂志是在封面上刊登了国际新闻故事的那几期。在同一时期，与我们竞争的几种新闻刊物显著减少了刊登在封面上的国际新闻数量。而且，我们用于维持国外部报导国际新闻的费用正在增加。因此，我们应该减少对于国际新闻的强调并且避免把这类消息刊登在杂志封面上。
1. No evidence shows people dislike the international issues. The poorest-selling magazines might due to other factors: the poorest-skilled covers design, the content or the poor paper quality.
2. Whether the profit made by competing magazines increase or decrease is unknown. It is possible that they lose a lot of customers and gain less profit by decreasing the international news on the cover. Or they have taken other measures that help to increase their circulation (发行量).
3. Replacing the covers might not help to save the cost. And people might like to find international news among the contents, and thus less exposure of international news might on the contrary decrease its circulation. And whether displaying other stories will improve the sales of the magazine remains to be seen.
173.poorest-selling magazine 论断：我们应该减少对国际新闻的重视，并控制这样的文章出现在杂志封面。因为过去三年我们卖的最不好的杂志是重点且封面报道是国际新闻的。同时，竞争对手已大量削减对国际新闻报道的数目。另外，我们维持驻外站的费用在升高。
·被忽略的前提：读者是否不喜欢看国际新闻。没有证据。
关于销售问题，有可能是报道写得的不好，或是杂志发行出了问题，都不能说明国际新闻本身不吸引读者。 ·驻外站的费用是否还会上升，上升是否还能承受。 ·竞争对手减少对国际新闻的关注，但却不知其销量是否上升。而且有可能是他们力不从心了，这样这个市场全是我们的了。
214.In each city in the region of Treehaven, the majority of the money spent on government-run public school education comes from taxes that each city government collects. The region's cities differ, however, in the value they place on public education. For example, Parson City typically budgets twice as much money per year as Blue City does for its public schools-even though both cities have about the same number of residents. It seems clear, therefore, that Parson City residents care more about public school education than do Blue City residents.
在Treehaven地区的每个城市，政府用于公立学校教育的开支大部分都是从政府征收的税收而来的。然而，该地区不同城市对公共教育的重视程度是不同的。举例而言，Parson市用于公立学校的预算通常是Blue市的两倍，尽管两城市居数量基本相同。因此，Parson市的居显然比Blue市居更关注公立学校教育。
1. It is possible that the total budget for the two cities is different as PC’s is far more than BC’s. And the proportion the budget for public education accounts for might be the same in the two cities or BC’s even exceeds PC’s.
2. It is possible that the percentage of school-age residents in the two cities is different as PC’s is far more than BC’s. It is also possible that the majority of BC’s students choose private schools for their study. If a comparatively small percentage of BC residents attend public schools, then the comparatively small amount of money BC needs to devote to those schools.
3. The budget devoted to cannot indicate the value residents place on public education. It is possible that education systems, infrastructures and facilities are well funded in BC due to collective efforts in the past years while public education in PC just begins to develop. It is also possible that people concern more about private education in BC than in PC.
4. Though the majority of money spent on public education comes from taxes, it is possible that actual percentage of taxes is smaller in BC than in PC. Other such funds in BC come from residents’ donations, private or non-profit organizations earmark(指定……用途) for public education.
214.each city in the region of Treehaven 论断：P城的居民比B城更关心公立学校的教育。P城每年拨到公立学校的财政经费是B城的两倍，尽管两个城市的居民人数相同。
·B城收入可能比P城少五倍，这样他的教育经费所占的比例是P城的近三倍。
·P城的学生是B城的四倍，每个学生摊到的是只有B城的一半。
·钱花得多不一定就更关心，政府的态度与居民的态度不一定一致。
143.The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a national newspaper.
"Your recent article on corporate downsizing* in the United States is misleading. The article gives the mistaken impression that many competent workers who lost jobs as a result of downsizing face serious economic hardship, often for years, before finding other suitable employment. But this impression is contradicted by a recent report on the United States economy, which found that since 1992 far more jobs have been created than have been eliminated. The report also demonstrates that many of those who lost their jobs have found new employment. Two-thirds of the newly created jobs have been in industries that tend to pay above-average wages, and the vast majority of these jobs are full-time."
Downsizing is the process in which corporations deliberately reduce the number of their employees.
你们最近关于美国集体裁员的文章是有误导性的。该文章给人们一种错误的印象，即很多在企业面临严重经济困难的时候裁员而导致失业的有能力的工人通常要用几年的时间找到另一份合适的工作。但这种感觉与最近一次关于美国经济的报告相矛盾，报告发现自1992年以来新增的就业机会数量远超过消失的岗位数量。该报告也指出很多失业人员已经找到了新工作。新增就业机会中有三分之二是那些提供高于平均水平薪酬的企业提供的，而且这些岗位绝大多数是全职工作。
1. This mistaken impression might be subjective perception of the arguer but not the facts of the article.
2. The created jobs might be offered to the new employees as the arguer fail to mention the proportion those who once lost their jobs account for. And the report also fails to give the percentage of the reemployment of those who lost their jobs. The term ‘many of those’ is an unconvincing evidence.
3. No evidence shows the time those workers spent to find a new suitable job, which is a main point in the article that the arguer attacks.
4. Besides offering people a job to live, a suitable employment contains many other factors ( decent salary, suitable working field to their skills and reasonable working hours with a satisfactory bonus) possible that the jobs those laid-off workers found are far below the suitable.
143.downsizing 论断：这种印象，即有能力的工人因为裁员失业后面临严重经济困难，经常几年找不到合适的工作，是错误的。因为关于美国经济的报道说，从1992年以后新设的工作岗位比消失的多很多。这篇报道还显示很多失去工作的人已经找到了新工作。产业中三分之二的新设岗位比平均工资高，而且绝大多数是全职的。
推论完全建立在这篇报道，但报道没有提供任何数字与证据，无法判断它的真实与准确。先以它真实为前提，论者的推理中有问题。 ·新设的岗位多，不一定被裁的工人上，人口在增多，有更多的人要找工作。 ·被裁员的工人可能无法得到那三分之二的工高资和全职岗位。因为岗位工种限制、技术限制、年龄限制。 ·很多失业人找到工作,但工作不一定令人满意，他们只是为了生计而去哪里工作，不是全部，而且也许用了很多年。失业人数也在增加。
即使是above-average的薪水也不能说明工作就好，也许薪水还是很低，难以维持生计
201.The citizens of Forsythe have adopted healthier lifestyles. Their responses to a recent survey show that in their eating habits they conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations than they did ten years ago. Furthermore, there has been a fourfold increase in sales of food products containing kiran, a substance that a scientific study has shown reduces cholesterol. This trend is also evident in reduced sales of sulia, a food that few of the healthiest citizens regularly eat.
Forsythe的居选择了更健康的生活方式。他们对于最近一项调查的回答显示，他们的饮食习惯比十年前更加贴近政府的营养建议。而且，含有kiran的食品销量增长了四倍，在一次科学研究中发现kiran是一种能够降低胆固醇水平的物质。这种趋势同样也被sulia的销量下降所证实，sulia是那些最健康的居极少经常食用的食品。
1. The survey might be problematic. The number of respondents might be insufficient. And their responses might not be reliable as their answers come from subjective feelings which might just be illusions or they just give the response in courtesy.
2. Whether the government nutritional recommendations are healthy is untold. It is possible that there are some flaws in these recommendations.
3. No evidence shows food contains K is healthy. It is possible that some of these food products contain other substances that might increase the risks of health hazards. No evidence shows K has no side effect.
4. It is possible that the increasing consumption of K does not result from the fact that increasing number of people eats health food but that some people concerning about their health add their consumption of K. K’s good flavor and low price can be attractive.
5. No evidence shows S is harmful to body. It is possible that it is not very tasty or it is very expensive so few people incline to buy it.
6. Healthy eating habits does not equal to healthy lifestyles. Other factors the daily routine, the frequency of exercise, and the psychological condition all contribute to the healthy lifestyles.
201.conform more closely to government nutritional recommendations 论断：F的市民现在采用了更健康的生活方式。因为在最近的一次调查中，他们反应出较十年前更接近政府营养建议的饮食习惯。另外，含科学证明可降胆固醇的K的食品销量增长了四倍，而且S的销量下降了也是这个趋势的一个证据，很少有最健康的居民经常食用这种食物。
·前提：饮食更健康。证据的问题，首先接近政府的营养建议，由于不知道这个建议的具体内容，所以无法判断这种情况是否就更健康了，这只能说当地人的饮食方式有意或无意地接近一个普遍接受的饮食习惯，但是是否符合当地的情况，还不得知。
其次，K的上升不一定是因为人们关心健康或是关心胆固醇，这类食品也许存在其他特征吸引人们，而且这类食品中也可能还含有其他不健康的万分。
第三，S的下降与人们是否更健康也无关，没有证据证明食用它会导致不健康。也许因为口味不好,价格贵.
·结论：饮食更健康不一定生活方式就健康，还有运动，心理等等因素。
218.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Hyper-Go Toy Company.
"Last year, sales of our Fierce Fighter toy airplane declined sharply, even though the toy had been a top seller for three years. Our customer surveys show that parents are now more worried about youthful violence and are concerned about better education for their children. Therefore, to maintain profits we should discontinue all our action toys and focus exclusively on a new line of educational toys. Several other toy companies have already begun marketing educational toys and report sales increases last year of 200 percent. And since the average family income is growing, sales of new Hyper-Go toys should also increase."
去年，我们Fierce Fighter玩具飞机的销量锐减，尽管该玩具连续三年都非常畅销。我们的消费者调查显示，家长对于青少年暴力越来越担忧，并且关注他们的孩子是否能得到更好的教育。因此，为继续盈利我们应该停止生产所有的动作玩具并专门生产一系列新的教育玩具。若干他玩具公司已经开始推广教育玩具并且报告说去年的销量增长了200％。由于平均家庭收入正在上涨，新的Hyper-Go玩具销量也会上升。
1. The decline in the sales of toy airplane might not result from the less popularity of the toy. It is possible that the market has been saturated with the airplane as most children have owned it (or design or supply or distribution problems). It is also possible that other competitive companies produce similar toys to occupy the share of the market, and thus leading to the decreasing of FF toy airplane.
2. The survey might not be statistically reliable. The survey’s respondents might not necessarily representative of the overall population of toy-buying parents. A substantial portion of HG’s target market would not react favorably to the proposed changes.
3. No evidence shows that action toys should be responsible for the youthful violence and that the worry of youthful violence will lead to the rejection of action toys. (Many other factors like violent TV shows or cartoons or problematic family environment can also contribute to youthful violence) Action toys might be still needed to cultivate the brave spirit of children. It is possible that other action toys are still popular or even more welcomed than before. And discontinuing the entire line would result in the loss of profits of these toys.
4. The success of the several companies might just be an aberration, which is not statistically representative of toy companies in general. Whether the trend will continue is questionable. It is very possible that other companies have a better management, better serving attitude, lower prices, better- designed cover besides the educational toy itself.
5. It is possible that the market of educational toys has already been occupied and the competition is fiercer ever than before. HG, especially if with little experience in educational toys, might lose large market shares to their competitors.
6. The increase in average family does not necessarily equal to the increase in the purchase of toys. Perhaps the average income of families without young children grows while that of the families with young children is actually shrinking.
218.toy airplane declined sharply 论断：H新的玩具销售也会上升。因为家庭的收入在上升，而父母越来越担心小孩子的暴力问题以及给孩子好的教育，所以我们并停止所有动作玩具的销售并只集中在只教育玩具上。其它几家玩具公司已经开始推出教育玩具而且销售已被报告在去年增长了200%。 ·因为家庭平均收在上升，新玩具的销售也会上升。
如果事情这么简单，为什么老玩具的销售会有忽剧的下降？新玩具的设计以及它将来的促销，还有经济情况，都会影响它的销售。
·是否该停止生产旧玩具。家长担心暴力问题，并不证明这就是旧玩具下降的主要因素，因为没有证据证明家长现在不给孩子买动作玩具，或是少买。首先玩具与暴力的关联并不太，而且不是所有的动作玩具都与暴力相关。论者应该多考虑一下是否有其他问题，比如设计上有先进的类似产品出现，市场饱和问题等等。
·是否该只集中在教育玩具上。首先没有有关此类玩具销售比例上升的证明，所以不能证明虽然家长越来越关心教育，今后就会多买教育玩具，事实上家长一直都很关心教育。其次，其他公司推出此类玩具销售上升的问题，与这些公司的玩具设计、推广以及管理等问题都有关系，很有可能他们同时还推出了其他动作玩具，销售也在上升。另外，其他公司的销售增长如此之快，得考虑一下会不会竞争已经开始激烈，对于新的进入者的门槛会进一步提高。
11.The following appeared in a memo from the mayor of the town of West Egg.
"Two years ago, our consultants predicted that West Egg's landfill, which is used for garbage disposal, would be completely filled within five years. During the past two years, however, town residents have been recycling twice as much aluminum and paper as they did in previous years. Next month the amount of material recycled should further increase, since charges for garbage pickup will double. Furthermore, over ninety percent of the respondents to a recent survey said that they would do more recycling in the future. Because of our residents' strong commitment to recycling, the available space in our landfill should last for considerably longer than predicted."
两年前，我们的顾问预言West Egg用于投放垃圾的填埋地将在五年内完全充满。然而在过去两年间，市对于铝和纸张的循环再生的数量比以前翻了一番。由于垃圾收集的收费在下个月将会加倍，循环再生的材料数量将进一步增加。而且，最近一次调查超过90％的回应者表示他们将会在未来做更多的循环再生工作。由于居对循环再生的有力支持，我们填埋地可利用空间的使用时间将比预期的长得多。
West Egg,garbage disposal 论断：垃圾回收能使空间够用更长时间。因为过去两年里居民对铝和纸的重复利用比前几年多了两倍，而超过90%的被访问者也表示他们将来会更多地回收垃圾。另外该市下个月的垃圾采集费用会翻番，这也将使得回收垃圾应该更进一步提高。
·论断的前提是回收垃圾会使得该坑的使用速度降低从而使用年限增加。但实际上这并没有保障。对于该坑使用年限的预测是在两年前做出来的，且不论其是否准确，但当时该市制造垃圾的速度可能没有现在快。也就是说，尽管回收垃圾能够减少垃圾的增长，但是如果该市的居民数增长、垃圾总量增长，尤其是不能被回收的垃圾增长迅速的话，将抵消垃圾回收带来的作用，甚至有可能会比预测的年限更早使用完。很显然，论据中没有提供任何这方面的资料。
·在论断的论据中也存在一些模糊的地方。首先这两年居民在铝和纸上的回收行为并不能保证他们会坚持或是推广到其他物品中去，(也许居民们只回收铝和纸但对其他的垃圾置之不理)而且铝和纸物品在日常的垃圾中所占的比重是多少，该种物品的减少对于垃圾总量的意义是什么，我们也没有从论者那里看到资料。
而对于调查，论者没有提供资料以表明被访问者是否具有代表性（也许与事实相反，只是随便一说，也不能保证以后也会坚持回收垃圾），调查又是否科学是否采取了措施以保证调查准确反映该市对于垃圾回收的做法，比如说访问的数量、性别比例、年龄段的比例以及行业比例等等。如果该调查只是随机进行的，就不能说明该市的居民都如此。
·论者的认为从下个月起重复利用的垃圾还会增加，因为垃圾回收的费用提高了。但是垃圾会不会被重复利用，首先取决于它能不能被重复利用，而不是要不要为垃圾回收付出更高费用。当然，提高费用会促使居民将更多的可重复利用的垃圾重复利用，但如果现在居民已经做到了这点，提高费用并不必然得会使得重复利用上升。不过有关居民日常垃圾中有多少是可重复利用的，论者没有提供。 （垃圾不管怎样人们都会去扔，即使收费高。 收费不是解决办法。 其他增加人们回收垃圾的方法：环保宣传、回收奖励等）
·论者的论断也欠周全。居民重复利用垃圾，但是除了由居民制造的日常垃圾以外其他的垃圾比如工业垃圾的情况怎么样？（也许当地的工业垃圾居多，政府应该考虑如何处理工业垃圾）没有资料进行比较，论断得出得太仓促。
结论：论者的结论太过草率。要想具体了解重复利用垃圾对于垃圾增长的作用，论者还需要做大量进一步的调查，比如目前垃圾中有多少是可被重复利用的，居民对于重复利用的垃圾的具体态度，目前垃圾增长的速度等等。只有了解了这些，才能得出正确结论。
38.The following memo appeared in the newsletter of the West Meria Public Health Council.
"An innovative treatment has come to our attention that promises to significantly reduce absenteeism in our schools and workplaces. A study reports that in nearby East Meria, where fish consumption is very high, people visit the doctor only once or twice per year for the treatment of colds. Clearly, eating a substantial amount of fish can prevent colds. Since colds are the reason most frequently given for absences from school and work, we recommend the daily use of Ichthaid, a nutritional supplement derived from fish oil, as a good way to prevent colds and lower absenteeism."
我们注意到一种保证可以显著减少学校和工作岗位的缺席的革新疗法。一项研究报告说在附近的East Meria，鱼的消费量很高，那里的人们每年因为治感冒而去看医生的次数只有一或两次。显然，吃较大量的鱼可以预防感冒。由于感冒是学校和单位缺席的最常见原因，我们建议每天服用Ichthaid，一种从鱼油中提炼的营养物质，作为预防感冒和减少缺席率的有效措施。
Public Health Council，absenteeism 论断：吃Ichthaid是防止感冒和旷课的好办法。因为一项研究表明，东部地区吃鱼多的地方每年只去医院接受两次感冒治疗，这说明吃大量的鱼能够防止感冒。而又因为感冒是人们旷课旷工的最常用理由。
·前提不被保证成立。论断的前提是Ichthaid能起到和鱼一样的效果，但论者没有提供任何资料证明这一点。虽然说鱼能够防止感冒，但这不意味着鱼油也能，更不能保证鱼油中的某种成份比如Ichthaid能有这样的效果。因为从鱼到鱼油再Ichthaid是一个提炼过程，论者没有提供证据证明防止感冒的因素都留在了Ichthaid里。因而这一前提不一定成立。
·论断的论据不具有说服力。论断引用一份在东部地区的研究，说当地人吃鱼多，一年只去医院看两次感冒。首先是东部地区的环境气候是否与西部地区一样，有没有可能那儿更温暖，气温变化小，这也可能使得人少感冒。其次感冒的人不一定都会去医院，一年去医院接受两次感冒治疗并不意味着一年只得两次感冒，有很多人感冒就自己在家里休息或吃药。没有这些资料，我们都不能从这份研究中确信是因为吃鱼所以东部人就少感冒了。
·结论非常武断。论者认为感冒是旷最经常的理由，所以是降低感冒也就是降低旷工旷课的好办法。但是论者没有提供资料有多少旷的人是因为感冒，还是用感冒作为借口。我们都知道身体不舒服是最容易请到假的办法，另外Ichthaid有没有副作用，会使人得其他的病，论者也没有提供资料。如果说感冒减少后，人们改用其他的借口，或是肠胃病的人又多了，显然这不人进一个好办法。
结论：论者要增强说服力还需要具体了解东部人是否真较少感冒，是否吃鱼在起作用。而且还应该了解Ichthaid的作用，和它可能会带来的问题。
164.Claitown University needs both affordable housing for its students and a way to fund the building of such housing. The best solution to this problem is to commission a famous architect known for experimental and futuristic buildings. It is common knowledge that tourists are willing to pay money to tour some of the architect's buildings, so it can be expected that tourists will want to visit this new building. The income from the fees charged to tourists will soon cover the building costs. Furthermore, such a building will attract new students as well as donations from alumni. And even though such a building will be much larger than our current need for student housing, part of the building can be used as office space.
Claitown大学需要为学生提供负担得起的住房和建造这些住房的融资途径。对于这一问题的最好解决办法就是请一位知名建筑师来设计一幢试验性和未来式的建筑。众所周知游客愿意花钱参观这名建筑师的一些建筑，因此我们可以预测游客将想要参观这座新建筑。从游客那里收取的钱将很快收回建楼的成本。而且，这样一座建筑将会吸引校友的捐款和新学生。尽管这样的建筑将比我们当前学生住房所需的大很多，但它的一部分可以用作办公空间。
1. The cost of inviting such an architect and building such a housing might be substantial that the funds raised by charging tourists and through alumni donations cannot be offset, which render the project unfeasible financially.
2. Tourists might not be willing to pay fees for tours of a building used for a purpose as mundane as student housing. It is possible that once the building put into use, tourist will not come. And it is also possible that the beauty of the buildings lie in their exteriors and thus people can appreciate the architectural features without paying for a tour.
3. The new housing might charge more which fewer students could afford. Students might prefer an affordable and practical housing not just a vase-like building. And as part of the building might be used as office space, some students might not be willing to stay as they feel the surroundings are too noisy and will distract their attention from study.
4. No evidence shows companies will be interested in renting in the building as it might not be convenient for clients to come.
164.Claitown University needs housing and way to fund the building 论断：最好的办法是雇用一个有经验有眼力的著名建筑师。因为一般旅游者都愿意花钱看一些建筑师的作品，所以会有旅游者来看新楼。这样这项收入可以很快抵消建楼的费用。另外这个楼会吸引新的学生以及校友的捐款。尽管这个楼会比现在学生住宿需求大，但一部分可以用来办公。
·学生宿舍是否能作旅游点。尽管会有旅游者去看一些大师的建筑物，但是否有人愿意花钱去看学生起居的地方，而且学生会不同意的，因为宿舍是他们的私人空间。这项收入不一定够。学校被视为非赢利机构，任务是培养学生，不能把建楼往商业用途上引
·没有证据表明会有校友愿意为此捐款，仅仅是猜测而已。
·学生宿舍不太可能适合办公，而且现在的办公空间够了，外面也不见得有人要租。
55.The following appeared in a Letter to the Editor of the Shady Village newspaper.
"Commuters are complaining that the rush hour traffic on Blue Highway between Shady Village and Bright City has doubled their commuting time. Some commuters have asked that an additional traffic lane be built, but the recent creation of such a lane on nearby Green Highway apparently attracted more commuters, judging from the fact that rush-hour traffic jams actually increased there this past winter. To reduce rush-hour traffic on Blue Highway, a bicycle lane should be added instead of a traffic lane. This approach will succeed because many citizens of Shady Village are avid bicyclists; 75 percent of respondents to a recent questionnaire distributed there said they would like to bicycle more hours per week than they currently do."
乘客抱怨说Shady Village和Bright City之间的Blue Highway高峰时期的交通拥堵使他们在路上所花的时间多了一倍。一些乘客曾要求修建一条附加机动车道，但最近在附近的Green Highway所修建的类似车道显然吸引了更多的车辆，这可以从去年冬天那里的高峰时段交通拥堵增加的事实判断出来。为减少Blue Highway高峰时段的交通拥堵，应该修建一条自行车道而不是机动车道。这一措施将会取得成因为Shady Village的很多市是积极的自行车爱好者；最近在那里举行的问卷调查中有75％的回应者说他们愿意用比当前更多的时间骑车。
1. Other factors contribute to the increase of the traffic jams on Green Highway: adverse weather condition, unexpected traffic accidents, reduced traffic law enforcement and poor quality.
2. The opinion revealed by the recent questionnaire cannot represent that of all the commuters. They might be among those who love the sports of cycling or they just make that response in courtesy. If the bicycle lane is built, possible that fewer people among those who respond will take on the road to work. It is entirely possible that the percentage of bicycle riders is rather smaller than the one of traffic commuters.
3. The journey to work might be too long or inconvenient for people to take on by bicycle. Or they just take bicycle as a sport, not a means of transportation. Or it might cause some dangerous scenarios if the bicycle lane becomes crowded or the weather gets terrible.
Commuters are complaining,rush hour traffic 论断：在蓝高速增加一个自行车道而不是汽车道一定能解决问题。因为很多S村的人很热衷骑车，最近一份在那儿的调查显示75%的被访者说如果增加自行车道，他们每周骑车上班的时间会比现在多。而最近在绿高速增加的汽车道在去年高峰时的堵车状况实际在上升，它显然吸引了更多的车。
·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是开了自行车道后S村的人会更多地放弃开车改为骑车。虽然论者说S村的人热衷于骑车，但也许他们只是拿它当娱乐和运动，并不表示他们愿意骑车上班。而关于在当地做的的调查，论者没能提供资料证明被访者具有代表性，如果接受访问的都是坐公交车而没有车的人，或是距离近的人，那么这个前提就不会成立。另外骑车的人受所候影响，如果遇到恶劣天气，人们是否还会骑车而不开车，这些都是不一定能保证的。
·论断引用的论据没有说服力。他举例说绿高速增加汽车道吸引了更多的车，而堵车问题实际更严重了。首先绿高速的问题不一定会在蓝高速发生，因为两地的地点不同，面临的情况不一样，比如绿高速的大车多，经常出车祸等。其次不排除绿高速新增车道设计不合理、路况差等因素，这样也不能证明开汽车道就不能解决问题。
·论者的结论太武断。论者认为S村的人愿意更多地骑车上班，所以开自行车道就一定能解决堵车问题。但如果S村的人现在根本不骑车上班，今后也只是偶尔试试，那么开了自行车道也不能解决问题。另外解决交通堵塞还有赖于很多方面，如果设计不合理，路况不好，经常发生车祸，都无法保证论者的办法会很成功。
结论：论者要加强说服力，还必须进一步提供有关S村人是否愿意骑车上下班的资料，并对开设自行车道做周密的设计和管理。
57.The following appeared in a newsletter on nutrition and health.
"Although the multimineral Zorba pill was designed as a simple dietary supplement, a study of first-time ulcer patients who took Zorba suggests that Zorba actually helps prevent ulcers. The study showed that only 25 percent of those ulcer patients who took Zorba under a doctor's direction developed new ulcers, compared to a 75 percent recurrence rate among ulcer patients who did not take Zorba. Clearly, then, Zorba will be highly effective in preventing recurrent ulcers and if health experts inform the general public of this fact, many first-time ulcers can be prevented as well."
尽管含多种矿物质的Zorba药片被设计成用作单纯的营养补充药，对于使用了Zorba的溃疡初患者的研究发现Zorba可以帮助预防溃疡。研究表明在医生的指导下服用Zorba的患者中只有25%得了新的溃疡，相比之下，那些没有服用Zorba的溃疡患者的复发率为75％。显然，Zorba在预防溃疡复发方面有很积极的效果，如果健康专家把这一事实公诸于众，很多初次发生的溃疡也同样可以得到预防。
1. Whether the number of studied patients is large enough and the time of observation is long enough to draw the conclusion. The physical quality and lifestyles of the patients might greatly differ.
2. The doctor may also prescribe other wonder drugs together with Zorba, or give some special treatment, which might be the major factor of the cure of ulcer. Or the studied patients didn’t tell the truth.
3. No evidence manifests that Zorba is effective in preventing ulcer and has no side effect. And it is even possible that people will not adopt the doctor’s advice to take Zorba to prevent the disease. Or the premise of the effectiveness of taking Z is that those people who have ulcer have developed the self- immunity before taking Zorba.
Zorba pill, ulcer 论断：Z药对于防止溃疡复发有很强的效果，而且如果专家告诉公众，溃疡的首次发作也能被防止。因为一项对对首发溃疡服用Z药的病人的研究显示，在医嘱下服务Z的病人只有25%复发，而不服z的则有75%复发。
·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是Z确实能防止溃疡复发。但是论者没有提供任何研究资料证明Z具有这样的作用。
·论断的论据没有说服力。论断说服用Z药复发的只有25%，不服用Z药复发有75%。首先这份调查不科学它没有提供有关被调查者的特症，如果服用Z药的人天生体质就不容易得溃疡，就不能证明他们的低复发率是因为z药。另外两组人接受的其他医疗方法不一样也会导致复发率有差别，比如医生不同，治疗药不同。第三论者没有提供资料证明这份调查的样本人群具有代表性，我们不排除在服用Z药的人群中，那些复发溃疡的人不愿接受调查或是没有寄回问卷的可能。
·论者的结论很武断。论者认为如果专家告诉公众这个事实，就会防止很多人首次得溃疡。如果Z能防止溃疡复发，也不必然能防止首发。如果Z防止复发的基础是溃疡病人具有了免疫力，那么它就不能帮助没得过溃疡的人。结论：论者要加强说服力还需要进一步提供有关Z在溃疡病上的具体治疗效果，并提供科学准确的有关服用人群的研究报告。
204.The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a farming publication.
"With continuing publicity about the need for healthful diets, and with new research about the harmful effects of eating too much sugar, nationwide demand for sugar will no doubt decline. Therefore, farmers in our state should use the land on which they currently grow sugar cane to grow peanuts, a food that is rich in protein and low in sugar. Farmers in the neighboring country of Palin greatly increased their production of peanuts last year, and their total revenues from that crop were quite high."
随着对于健康饮食需求的持续报导，以及关于食用过多的糖对于健康危害的新研究，全国对于糖的需求无疑将会下降。因此，本州的农场主应该把他们现在种植蔗糖的土地用于种植花生，花生富含蛋白质而糖的含量低。邻近国家Palin的农夫去年极大增加了花生的产量，他们在这种作物上的收入相当可观。
1. No evidence shows the demand for sugar will decline. It is possible that the level of consumption of sugar nationwide is already low and close to the necessary demand. It is also possible that the new research draws little attention (published in a local magazine with low publicity) or its result is unconvincing. (Despite of the eating disadvantages of sugar, sugar for other purposes must also be taken into consideration.)
2. No evidence supports the change of land use. It is possible that the land used for sugar growing is less than enough to meet the demands and the country has to import large amount of sugar. It is also possible that sugar is the major economic crops for exportation, and thus reducing sugar growing might influence the trade balance.
3. No evidence shows peanut fits the land. No evidence shows peanuts have no side effect to health and the consumption of peanuts will increase. (possible that the country is already saturated with peanuts)
4. The scenarios in P might not be applicable to those in the arguer’s country: the quality of soil, the weather condition, the method of planting. Other crops might be more suitable.
5. No evidence shows that Palin is benefiting from peanuts, revenues must be measured by both costs and gains, it is possible that the costs in planting peanuts are much higher than the high revenues.
204.harmful effects of eating too much sugar 论断：我们州种糖蔗的地应该用来种花生。因为对健康饮食的宣传，以及关于吃太多粮的坏作用的研究会带来全国性的糖需求无疑的下降。隔壁P国去年提高了花生的产量，他们粮食收入很高。
·前提，糖的需求会下降。没有直接证据，关于健康与研究问题不一定会有这样的结果。首先，没人说现在人的糖摄入量再长就不健康，其次，不健康人就不吃了吗，那烟的销量为什么还年年攀升。
·前提，应该种花生。没有直接证据证明我们种花生会赚钱。隔壁国的证据是false analogy.首先，天气不同，环境不同，搞不好我们这儿种不出果来。其次，技术问题，人家可能前两年技术有了新突破才想到增加种植的。第三，没有证据说他们种花生赚钱了，粮食嘛，还有其他呢。
·结论：就算糖不赚钱了，换种花生也会很麻烦。另外不种花生还可以种别的呀。
209.The following recommendation was made by the Human Resources Manager to the board of directors of the Fancy Toy Company.
"In the last three quarters of this year, under the leadership of our president, Pat Salvo, our profits have fallen considerably. Thus, we should ask for her resignation in return for a generous severance package. In Pat's place, we should appoint Rosa Winnings. Rosa is currently president of Starlight Jewelry, a company whose profits have increased dramatically over the past several years. Although we will have to pay Rosa twice the salary that Pat has been receiving, it will be well worth it because we can soon expect our profits to increase considerably."
在今年的过去三个季度里，在我们总裁Pat Salvo的领导下，利润显著下降。因此，我们应该给予她优厚的补偿并要求她辞职。我们应该任命Rosa Winnings来代替她的职位。Rosa当前是Starlight Jewelry的总裁，这家公司的利润在过去几年中显著增长。尽管我们要付给Rosa两倍于我们付给Pat的工资，但这将是值得的因为我们马上可以看到利润的显著增长。
1. It is possible that Pat was not the cause of FTC’s declining profits. Other factors: the increase of the cost of materials or labor forces, the seasonal sales (the coming season might be the most profitable one), the less popularity of toys at present. It is also possible that the problems were developed before Pat took the position and her efforts have made the loss minimized.
2. It is possible that the profitability of SJ is not primarily the feat of Rosa: all jewelry businesses have prospered recently, the costs of precious metals and other materials have declined in recent years. It is also possible that Rosa has served as president of SJ for only a short trem, and it was her predecessor who is to credit for SJ’s profitability.
3. No evidence shows Rosa is competent in the position of Pat. Jewelry and toy are two different industries, which require different sales strategy, management policies and advertising campaigns, and thus Rosa might not have the capacity to run a company of toys as she might have no experience and skills in this field. Other candidates might be more suitable for the position.
4. The increase in profit might take place in a long time. Short-term dramatic rise might not happen as the change of the policies and strategies need time to take into effect.
209.Fancy Toy Company 论断：我们应任命R，并要求P辞职。因为尽管R的薪水是P的两倍，但他会使我们的利润迅速显著上升。而在过去3个季度里，现任总裁P的领导下，我们的利润下降明显。R现在是S珠宝店的头，这家公司的利润在过去几年里一直急剧增加。
·被忽略的前提，R会来这儿。这儿效益这么不好。
·前提，R能使我们的利润迅速上升。没有直接的证据证明R对我们公司的情况了解并有很好的建议。而关于他在珠宝店的业绩不说明问题：首先行业不同，其次珠宝店的成绩不是他一人的，员工的作用。
·前提，P的能力不行。首先3个季度的工作没有说服力。其次，利润下滑不是他一个人的原因。可能是以前留下的隐患。第三，没准下滑是暂时的，他采取了一些措施，效果在长期。
·结论：R薪水是P的两倍，利润能增长多少却不知道。
240.The following appeared in a memo written by a dean at Buckingham College.
"To serve the housing needs of our students, Buckingham College should build a new dormitory. Buckingham's enrollment is growing and, based on current trends, should double over the next fifty years, thus making existing dormitories inadequate. Moreover, the average rent for an apartment in our town has increased in recent years. Consequently, students will find it increasingly difficult to afford off-campus housing. Finally, an attractive new dormitory would make prospective students more likely to enroll at Buckingham."
为满足我们学生的住房需求，Buckingham学院应该建造一幢新的宿舍。Buckingham的报名人数正在增加，而且按照现有趋势，报名人数将会在未来50年中增加一倍，从而导致现有住宅不能满足要求。而且，我们镇上公寓的平均租金在近几年间上涨了。因此，学生将会越来越发现难于负担校外住宿费用。最后，一幢引人注目的新宿舍将会使未来的学生更愿意报考Buckingham。
1. No evidence shows the current trend in enrollment will continue in the future and even over 50 years. It is possible that enrollment will fluctuate at the current level or even decrease in the future. Students might choose other colleges to avoid the fierce competition of BC.
2. No evidence shows the increase in enrollment will lead to the same increase in the demand for student housing. It is possible that a majority of the students will choose to live at home as the transportation to BC is considerably convenient. The author didn’t mention if the current student housing is inadequate.
3. No evidence shows the increasing price of rent will exceed students’ affordability. It is possible that students can still afford the rent as the increase is insignificant and the original rent was considerably low.
4. Other measures might be more effective in attracting prospective students: funding research programs, improving the quality of education, optimizing campus facilities.
240.enrollment is growing 论断：B校应该建一个新的宿舍。因为注册数在上升，依目前的趋势今后五十年里会翻番，那么现在的宿舍也就不够。另外，镇上租房子的钱每年都在上涨。结果学生会发现在校外找房子越来越难，最后漂亮的新宿舍会提高注册数。
·前提，现在需要一个新宿舍。没有证据证明现在宿舍不够。论者说五十年后，太多虑了。不足对目前的行为给予任何参考。每年也就增长2%。
·前提，房租上涨学生会愿意在学校住宿舍。房租上涨是很正常的，比如说存在通货膨胀，当地经济发展比较快。而且一般房租上涨说明该地各方面的工资和特价水平都在上涨，包括学费和住宿费。所以，学生可能还是愿意住在校外。
·结论：宿舍怎么可能是吸引学生的主要原因呢。
20.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"The population of Balmer Island increases to 100,000 duing the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by each of the island's six moped and bicycle rental companies from 50 per day to 30 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council is sure to attain the 50 percent reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year in the neighboring island of Torseau, when Torseau's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Balmer Island的人口在夏季达到了100000。为减少由助力车和行人引发的事故，Balmer Island市委应把本岛六个助力车和自行车出租公司的助力车出租数量在夏季从每天50辆限制到每天30辆。通过限制出租数量，市委肯定能够实现助力车事故减少50％的目标，就像去年邻岛Torseau市委实施了类似的对于助力车出租的限制后所达到的那样。
Balmer Island,moped 结论：降低租车数量，镇里的事故会减少50%。因为隔壁去年这样做取得了这样的成绩。
·论断的前提是采取措施降低事故是有必要的，但这样的情况却在论断中看不到。论者没有提供任何有关镇里事故的资料，甚至没有说镇里有没有这样的事故，数量是多少，造成的危害是什么。因为不像汽车，这种事故一般都不会严重，而从论断中我们看不到有这样做的必要。
·论断还有一个前提是出事故的车主要是租来的车(也许是其他私家车或公共车造成的)，这非常不公平。如果说镇里的事故需要解决，也不能只简单地限制租车数量。镇里有多少这种车，出事故的有多少是租来的车，这此论断都没提供。如果说事故主要是自己的车，那么这种做法会影响公司利润，会引来他们不满。
·论断的前提中还有一个漏洞，就是他认为6家租车公司每天的租车量都超过了30，但这也没被论断所保证。论断没有提供目前实际每家的租车数量，如果说目前每家的租车数还不足30，那么就算真有事故，也不可能因此而有所减少。
·论断引用的论据是他人成功经验，但这种成功并不必然出现在这里。论据没有提供任何有关两地面临的问题是否相同，也没有提供他们的事故与我们相比是多是少。如果说降低50%以后他们的事故仍比我们多，显然就不具备可借鉴。
结论：论断缺乏对事故及其当地情况的基本了解，仅凭他人经验就提出建议非常荒谬。要想说服，还需要提供当地事故数量、危害以及租来车的事故多少等等。
36.The following appeared in an article written by Dr. Karp, an anthropologist.
"Twenty years ago Dr. Field, a noted anthropologist, visited the island of Tertia and concluded from his observations that children in Tertia were reared by an entire village rather than by their own biological parents. However, my recent interviews with children living in the group of islands that includes Tertia show that these children spend much more time talking about their biological parents than about other adults in the village. This research proves that Dr. Field's conclusion about Tertian village culture is false, and thus that the observation-centered approach to studying cultures is invalid. Because they are using the interview-centered method, my team of graduate students working in Tertia will establish a much more accurate understanding of child-rearing traditions there and in other island cultures."
20年前著名人类学家Field博士访问了Tertia岛，并从他的观察得出结论：Tertia的儿童是由整个村庄的人抚养长大的而不是由他们的双亲。然而，我最近对包含Tertia的一组岛屿上生活的儿童的采访显示，这些儿童的谈话中谈到他们双亲的时间要远多于谈到村庄中其他成年人的时间。这个研究证实了Field博士关于Tertia村庄文化的结论是错误的，因而这种以观察为中心的研究文化的方法是无效的。由于我在Tertia工作的研究生们所用的是以采访为中心的方式，他们将对那里以及其他岛屿文化的儿童抚养传统建立精确的多的了解。
Dr. Karp, an anthropologist 论断：旧观点是错误的，而且以观察为中心的文化研究方法是无效的。因为我最近对包括这个村在内的岛的采访发现，这儿的孩子谈论生理父母比村里其他成年人更多。而我的工作对伍采用以访问为中心的方法，将建立起对该岛文化与儿童抚养传统更准确的理解。
·论断的前提不被必然保证成立。论断的前提是该村的孩子的确不由全村人抚养。但是论者没有提供任何确切的资料证明这一点。他仅凭自己尚未完成的研究进行猜测，而且也没有提供任何资料以说明他们采用的方法一定更准确。
·论断的论据没有说服力。论者说采访中发现这一地区的孩子谈论父母比谈论其他成年人更多，但这仅仅能说明孩子与父母的接触更多，比如他们有着天然的血缘关系，比如父母比村里其他成年人更关心自己的孩子，但这都不能排除孩子的抚养是由全村人进行，比如食物喂养，技能传授等等，这并不能说明孩子不由全村人抚养。另外论者也没有告诉我们他们是否在采访中采取了措施以保证结果准确，比如采访话题是否会引导孩子谈论父母。
·论断的结论太武断。就算旧观点是错误的，也不能由此得出他使用的研究方法是无效的。研究的正确与否，除了方法以外还受很多因素制约。比如研究者的能力等等。另外旧观点是在二十年前建立起来的，如果说该村的风俗改变了，则不能证明旧观点是错误的。
·论者认为他们采用的采访为中心的研究方法肯定能对此问题得出更准确的理解。这与论断无关，而且论者没有提供资料证明采访中心研究适合该地区，更没有资料证明他们的研究结果是正确的。结论：论者要增加说服力还需要进一步研究当地的风俗传统，得出最终的答案。而不能仅凭孩子的谈论而仓促做出结论。
39.The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Humana College.
"Last year the number of students who enrolled in long-distance degree programs at Omni University increased by 50%. During the same year, Omni showed a significant decrease from prior years in expenditures for dormitory and classroom space, most likely because instruction in the long-distance programs takes place via interactive video computer connections. In contrast, over the past three years, enrollment at Humana College has diminished and costs of maintaining buildings have risen. Thus, to increase enrollment and solve the problem of budget deficits at Humana College, we should initiate and actively promote long-distance degree programs like those at Omni."
去年报名参加Omni大学远程教学系统的学生人数上升了50％。同年，Omni用于宿舍和教室的开支比前一年显著下降，很可能是因为远程教学通过互动电脑录像授课。比较而言，在过去三年中，Humana学院的报名人数下降了，而且用于房屋维护的费用上升。因此，为增加报名数量并解决Humana学院财政赤字问题，我们也应该开展并积极推广与Omni一样的远程教学系统。
9.Humana College,long-distance degree， at Omni University 论断：为了提高注册数和解决财政赤字，我们应该开始远程学位。因为我们学校过去三年的注册数一直在下降而维持建筑的花费一直在上升。论者举例说O校去年注册远程学位的学生增加了50%，同年O校在宿舍和校室上的开销比前一年有明显下降。
·论断忽视了一个重要前提，既，是否有足够多的学生愿意注册远程学位。如果没有学生愿意注册，那么开设也只能再多花费钱，对于注册人数不可能有任何帮助。
·论断引用的论据不具备说服力。论断说O校去年远程注册上升50%，花费有了明显下降。首先论者没有提供有关O校去年整体注册数目是否也有所上升。如果仅仅是远程的上升了，而总体没变或是下降了，它们的经验就不值得我们借鉴，因为我们是要提高整个注册数。其次O校花销比前几年有明显下降，也不能仅凭猜测还归于是远程课程和电脑的结果，论者没有提供相关的资料，我们不能排除O校前几年在进行某些花费大的一次工程，而去年不用了。第三论者没有提供任何资料说明O校的与我们有什么相同的地方，面临的问题是否相同，以及师资情况，学生结构等等，缺乏这些资料，我们并不能得出结论O校的经验值得我们借鉴。
·论断的结论很武断。它认为远程学位能够解决财政赤字。但事实上开设远程学位是项很复杂的工程。它涉及到新添设备、运作等环节，这些都会增加开销。论者没有提供资料证明这部分开销的上涨会小于远程学位帮助降低的开支。另外远程学位的开设有可能会使部分已注册的学生转去，这也不必然保证注册数的上升。
结论：论者要增加说服力还需要进一步了解有多少人愿意参加该的远程教育，并提供有关这项工程所需要的资料数目。而关于O校的经验，论者也应进一步考察是否值得我们借鉴。
48.The following appeared in a newspaper article published in the country of Corpora.
"Twenty years ago, one half of all citizens in Corpora met the standards for adequate physical fitness as then defined by the national advisory board on physical fitness. Today, the board says that only one quarter of all citizens are adequately fit and suggests that spending too much time using computers may be the reason. But since overall fitness levels are highest in regions of Corpora where levels of computer ownership are also highest, it is clear that using computers has not made citizens less physically fit. Instead, as shown by this year's unusually low expenditures on fitness-related products and services, the recent decline in the economy is most likely the cause, and fitness levels will improve when the economy does."
20年前，Corpora的市有一半都达到了那时由国家健身顾问委员会所定义的充分的健康标准。今天，委员会指出所有市只有四分之一的市足够健康，并指出长时间的使用电脑可能是原因。但是由于在Corpora电脑拥有量最高的地区也是总体健康水平最高的地区，显然使用电脑并没有导致市体质的下降。相反，今年用于健身产品和服务的花费低的异乎寻常，这表明最近经济的衰退最可能是原因，当经济复苏了健康水平也会随之提高。
Corpora,physical fitness 结论：经济形式好了，健康水平会提高。目前全国健康协会说只有四分一的市民身体达标，而此时与健康有关的产品和服务上的开支异常地低。另外虽然全国协会说健康水平下降是多用电脑造成的，但本城的健康水平高同时电脑拥有量也高，所以显然电脑不是不健康的原因。
·论断的前提不一定成立。论断的前提是经济形式好了，人们在健康产品和服务上的开支就会上升，但这不一定成立。论者没有提供资料证明目前这方面的低开销主要是由于经济不景气造成，或是人们的钱多了就一定会增加这方面的开支。也有可能是目前健康产品和服务不能满足大家的要求，或是服务质量不好。
·论证的论据没有说服力。论据说C城整体健康水平高同时电脑拥有量高，所以证明电脑没有造成健康下降。首先C城目前的健康水平如何论者没有提供资料，只是说二十年前C城一半的居民达标，那么目前在全国只有四分之一的人达标的情况下，C城的情况如何，我们不能排除C城比全国水平低的可能。其次电脑拥有量高不代表使用电脑时间长。
·论者结论武断：经济形式好了，人们在与健康有关的产品和服务上的开支增加了，人们健康水平就会提升。但没有证据证明这项开支与人的健康水平有必然联系，甚至没有证据证明这些产品和服务一定能提高人们的健康水平。
结论：论者要加要说服力还需要提供资料显示健康产品和服务能多大程度上帮助人们提高健康水平，而目前人们对于这项花销的看如何，是什么导致了开支的下降。
111.The following appeared in a memo from the vice president of marketing at Dura-Sock, Inc.
"A recent study of Dura-Sock wearers suggests that our company is wasting the money it spends on its patented "Endure" manufacturing process, which ensures that our socks are strong enough to last for two years. Dura-Sock has always advertised its use of the "Endure" process, but the new study shows that the average Dura-Sock customer actually purchases new Dura-Socks every three months. Furthermore, Dura-Sock customers surveyed in our largest market, northeastern United States cities, say that they most value Dura-Sock's stylish appearance and availability in many colors. These findings suggest that Dura-Sock can increase its profits by discontinuing its use of the "Endure" manufacturing process."
最近一次对于Dura-Sock使用者的调查表明我们公司用于其专利生产方式"Endure"上的钱是浪费的，这种方式使我们生产的袜子足以使用两年。Dura-Sock一直在做广告宣传它使用"Endure"方式，但这次新调查显示一般Dura-Sock的消费者每三个月就买一双Dura-Sock袜子。而且，在位于美国北部城市我们最大的商场回应调查的Dura-Sock消费者说他们最欣赏Dura-Sock时尚的外观和众多颜色的选择。这些事实说明Dura-Sock可以通过停止使用"Endure"生产方式来增加盈利。
1. Purchasing new socks every three months does not mean the socks could only last three months, and does not exclude the possibility that a large number of customers might still expect their socks to last for two years. And the effect of advertisement might partly contribute to the sales of stocks.
2. The survey is not persuasive enough as it does not mention the condition in other markets. It’s very possible that the survey is done locally not nationwide.
3. That customers value the stylish appearance and availability in many colors most might be based on the premise that the socks are strong enough and last long.
4. Discontinuing use of the ‘Endure’ might not increase its profits if introducing other process costs for more.
111.Dura-Sock,Endure 论断：DS可以通过减少在加强耐用性方面的制作程序提高利润。因为新的研究显示，一般的DS顾客实际上每三个月就会买新的DS。另外在我们最大的市场东北部城市的调查中，被访的DS顾客表示他们最看重DS的外观和颜色的多样。而DS一直打广告强调它的耐用可以用两年。
·前提我们的顾客不再重视耐用性。论者没有提供有关顾客对于耐用性看法的直接资料，而它提供的销售研究又不足以说明这个可能。首先，顾客平均每三个月就买新袜子，但并不说明顾客每双袜子只打算穿三个月，也不证明他们就此放弃了在耐用性上的苛刻要求。他们完全有可能在买了新袜子以后，仍然继续使用旧袜子，而且希望能用很长时间。其次顾客看中式样和颜色多样，并不意味着他们就不被耐用性吸引，完全有可能是因为广告中对于耐用性的强调吸引了顾客，频繁光顾我们，然后才发现我们的式样新颜色多。
·论据没有说服力。首先该调查是在某地进行的，还不足以说明全国的情况，完全有可能在其他地方有更多的顾客看重我们的耐用性，而不被式样和颜色吸引。其次这个调查是如何进行的，它是否能代表该地区各种顾客的看法。如果接受调查的主要是年轻女性顾客，那么放弃耐用性很可能就失去了妇女、老人以及男性顾客。
·结论，如果耐用性真不像以前那样受到顾客重视，放弃它也不会带来利润上升。因为式样和颜色都是容易被竞争对手模仿的，唯有耐用和高质量是我们品牌的保证。如果放弃耐用性，我们就会失去竞争优势。结论：要得出正确的结论，论者还应该进一步了解顾客对于耐用性的看法
137.The following appeared in an editorial in the Mason City newspaper.
"At present, Mason City residents seldom use the nearby Mason River for any kind of recreational activity, even though surveys of the region's residents consistently rank water sports (swimming, fishing, and boating) as a favorite form of recreation. Since there have been complaints about the quality of the water in the river, residents must be avoiding the river because they think that it is not clean enough. But that situation is about to change: the agency responsible for rivers in our region has announced plans to clean up Mason River. Therefore, recreational use of the river is likely to increase, so the Mason City council will need to increase its budget for improvements to the publicly owned lands along the Mason River."
当前，Mason市很少利用附近的Mason河来进行娱乐活动，尽管对该地区居的几次调查一直指出他们把水上运动（游泳、垂钓和划船）作为他们最喜欢的娱乐形式。由于曾经存在对于这条河水质的投诉，居一定是因为他们认为河水不够干净才不在这里活动。但这种情况就会改变了：我们地区负责河流管理的部门公布了澄清Mason河的计划。因此，河流的娱乐用途很可能将会增加，因而Mason市的市委有必要增加用于改Mason河沿岸公共土地的预算。
1. Other reasons might be responsible for residents’ avoid of recreational activity: the cold weather, ban on fishing, deep water). Or there has already been a lot of better places for the residents to enjoy recreational activities on water
2. No evidence shows the agency will be effective in cleaning up the river. It is possible that the task cannot be completed in the near future (the restoration of environment is really tough).
3. The need of improving the publicly owned lands along the river is unwarranted as these lands might be already suitable for recreational activities.
4. Due to the unknown factors of transportation, travelling distance and prices, there might be no guarantee that customers will go to M river.
137.use the River for recreational activity 论断：政府需要为河边的公共场所的改善增加支出，因为河上娱乐可能会上升。目前居民很少用河进行娱乐，尽管对他们的调查一直说这是他们最喜欢的娱乐方式。由于一直有关于河水质量的抱怨，居民必须避开河水。不过这种情况会有改变，负责我们这个区的机构宣布了清理河的计划。
·前提，河水干净了河上娱乐会上升。尽管论者本地居民一直把水上运动列为他们最喜欢的运动，但由于长时间很少有人使用它，我们并不知道居民是否愿意在M河上进行这种娱乐。M河有可能不适合。
·前提，河水会干净。机构宣布了计划，不一定河水就能干净，污染程度，还有工作效率，都不一定能达到标准。
·结论，公共场所需要改进吗？不一定吧。结论：这篇社论没有了解当地情况，也不知道前景如何，政府的决策还需考虑。
156.The following is taken from an advertisement placed in a weekly business magazine by the Dickens Academy.
"We distributed a survey to senior management at International Mega-Publishing, Inc. The result of the survey clearly indicates that many employees were well prepared in business knowledge and computer skills, but lacked interpersonal skills to interact gracefully with customers. International Mega-Publishing decided to improve customer satisfaction by sending their newly hired employees to our one-day seminars. Since taking advantage of our program, International Mega-Publishing has seen a sharp increase in sales, an indication that the number of their disgruntled customers has declined significantly. Your company should hire Dickens and let us turn every employee into an ambassador for your company."
我们对International Mega-Publishing, Inc的高层管理人员进行了一次调查。调查结果清楚地显示很多员工在商业知识和计算机技能方面准备充足，但是缺乏与客户得体沟通的人际交往能力。International Mega-Publishing决定通过让他们的新员工参加我们为期一天的研讨会来提高客户满意度。在参加了我们的课程之后，International Mega-Publishing的销量急剧上升，这表明不满意的顾客数量显著下降。你们公司应该聘用Dickens来让我们把每名员工变成你们公司的大使.
1. As the subjects of the survey are senior managers, it is very likely that they might not associate with the customers as frequent as their junior staff. It is possible that there is no need for the senior management to make improvements in interpersonal skills.
2. The newly hired employees in IMP might not lack interpersonal skills as the survey does not involve these people. And the one-day seminars might be too short to see any effect. Besides, other factors might contribute to the sharp increase in sales: advertising campaigns, highly evaluation by authorities, new rewards or good news for the company.
3. Unfair assumption that other companies are identical to IMP in the need of interpersonal skills. Probably that the employees in other companies are very good at communicating with customers.
156.International Mega-Publishing,interpersonal skills 论断：你们应该雇用我们来使你们的员工成为公司的外交大使。因为自从IM公司送新员工来参加我们一天的培训后，他们的销售争取上升，关于顾客抱怨的数字也明显下降。
·前提，D公司的一天培训能提高员工的交际能力，广告中没有相关的资料证明IM公司的新员工因为这项研究班而有提升。
·前提，IM公司的业绩上升可能不是因为研究班。首先不是因为新员工，其次不是因为人际能力的上升。 ·结论，其他工司是否也需要员工有很好的人际交往能力，或者外交大使。
227.The following appeared as an editorial in a local newspaper.
"In order to attract visitors to Central Plaza downtown and to return the plaza to its former glory, the city should prohibit skateboarding there and instead allow skateboarders to use an area in Monroe Park. At Central Plaza, skateboard users are about the only people one sees now, and litter and defaced property have made the plaza unattractive. In a recent survey of downtown merchants, the majority supported a prohibition on skateboarding in the plaza. Clearly, banning skateboarding in Central Plaza will make the area a place where people can congregate for fun or for relaxation."
为使闹市区中央广场吸引更多的观光者并回复该广场以前的繁荣，我们市应该禁止在那里玩滑板，让滑板爱好者使用Monroe公园地区活动。在中央广场，人们唯一可以看到的就是玩滑板的人，废弃物和损毁的公物使广场失去了往日的吸引力。在最近一次对闹市区商户的调查中，大多数人都支持禁止在广场玩滑板。显然，在中央广场禁止滑板将会使该地区成为人们可以聚集起来娱乐和休闲的场所。
1. The sleazy environment might not be attributable to the skateboarders (loose management on cleaning and few regulations on people’s action).
2. No evidence shows skateboarders should be responsible for the decline of the plaza. It is also possible that the Plaza’s primary appeal in its glorious days had to do with particular shops or eateries, which were eventually replaced by less appealing ones (rising crime rate, unsatisfactory services, noisy construction nearby, inconvenient transportation)
3. What about the condition in Monroe Park? It is possible that the space is already fully occupied and the ground is not suitable for skateboarders to skate.
4. A ban on skateboarding might be neither necessary nor sufficient to achieve the goals. It is possible that the skateboarding show is the only attractiveness remaining and drive them away might deteriorate the current situation. Perhaps other measures might be more effective: holding well-known and significant events, advertising campaigns and promotion sales.
5. The survey might be problematic (insufficient respondents). No evidence shows these merchants supporting the prohibition are from the purpose of reversing the glory of the plaza. It is possible that they merely want to promote their own businesses and increase the patronage of people by drawing their attention from the skateboarding to their shops.
6. No evidence shows that people will surely like to congregate on plaza after the renewal of its glory is complete.
227.prohibit skateboarding 论断：禁止滑冰C广场能成为人们可以聚会和放松的场所。因为现在C广场，滑冰的人几乎是唯一能看到的使用者，而且纸屑垃圾使得广场很难看。最近的一项对市中心商人的调查，大多数人支持对滑冰的禁止。而且滑冰的人可以去M公园里的场地。
·前提：是滑冰的人把广场弄得没有吸引力的。论者没有提供任何有关人们为什么不爱去广场的原因，很有可能他把因果关系倒置了，滑冰的人选择广场，是因为广场上没有人。这样，没有滑冰的人，人们也不会去广场。
·论据：谁说纸屑一定是滑冰的人扔的。
·商人的调查没有说服力。商人只关心自己的利润，并不能代表大多数市民。也许他们认为滑冰的人碍事，比如挡住了他们的店面，或者他们想在别的什么地方开一个收费的冰场。
·使用M公园里的场地滑冰有可能存在问题。场地是否适合，是否很远等等。
236.The following appeared as a letter to the editor of a local Solano newspaper.
"The Solano school district should do away with its music education programs. After all, music programs are not especially popular in our schools: only 20 percent of our high school students participated in music programs last year. Furthermore, very few of the Solano district's college-bound students are interested in majoring in music at the university level. Also, when the school district of our neighboring town of Rutherford eliminated its music programs two years ago, the overall grade point average in the high school increased by 10 percent the next year. Surely the money spent on Solano music programs could be better used to improve the quality of traditional academic courses."
Solano校区应该取消其音乐课程。无论如何，音乐课程在我们学校并不特别受欢迎：去年我们高中的学生只有20％参加了音乐课。而且，Solano区要考大学的学生中只有很少的人想在大学学习音乐。并且当我们的邻镇Rutherford两年前取消了音乐课的时候，其高中的综合成绩在随后一年中上升了10％。显然我们用于Solano音乐课程的开支可以更好地被用于提高传统课程的质量。
1. The value of music education lies in its contribution to the full development of a student, rather enhancing overall grades or encouraging more students to pursue music study in college.
2. The author didn’t tell the total students number, it is very possible that the 20% of students occupies a great number of students. Whether they’ll major in music at college has nothing to do with their interests. It’s possible that they still want to study music as a skill.
3. No evidence shows students have a choice in what courses they take. It is also possible that not music but the program’s arrangement influences students’ decisions: unpopular music teachers, lacking adequate facilities and instruments for students’ study, out-of-date methods of music learning.
4. Major in other subjects does not equal to the less popularity of music. It is possible that music accounts for a majority portion of students’ leisure time by organizing music clubs or concerts. It is also possible that a number of students will pursue the career in music after university studies.
5. There’s no necessary connection between Rutherford and Solano. It’s possible that R eliminated music was due to the shortage of funds for musical facilities and teachers.
6. No evidence shows discontinued music programs contribute to the rise in the overall grade point average. It is possible that other factors such as stringent school regulation, the rise in the quality of education, more effective teachers or just easier tests contribute to the success. And the success of R might not be applicable to S.
236.should do away with its music education programs 论断：应该取消音乐教育课，把花在音乐课上的钱花在提高传统学术课质量上应该更好。因为音乐在我们学校中不是特别流行：只有20%的高中学生去年上了音乐课。另外，要上大学的学生中只有很少有兴趣在大学读音乐专业。而且当隔壁镇两年前取消音乐课时，高中的整体成绩上第二年升了10%。
·前提，学生对音乐不感兴趣。首先没有学生说这样的话。其次，很少有学生想大学读音乐专业，不表示很少有学生感兴趣。专业意味着工作，学生可能会把它当兴趣。第三，20%的学生上音乐课，这不是个小数目，不应该忽视他们的需要。
·论据，隔壁镇的分数上升不一定是因为取消了音乐。可能是教师水平提高了，可能是打分不那么严了lower demand in scoring system. ·结论：音乐虽然不是主课但仍然重要，传统课上花钱再多也不见得会出效果。
157.The following is a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
"As a local merchant, I wish to support the development of a ski resort in the state park north of our township. Along with many other merchants who favor the proposal by Ski the Slopes, Incorporated, I would, of course, experience a growth in my business. But I also know how much more prosperous, not to mention lively and interesting, our community would be if tourism increased. Since the main opposition comes from a few environmentalists* who do not even live in this community, I see no reason to give in to their views. The First National Bank has finally researched the project and agreed to fund it. As a result, I see no reason to delay development of the resort."
Environmentalists are people who advocate the preservation of the natural environment.
作为一个本地商人，我支持在我们城市北部的州立公园建造一个滑雪场。和其他很多支持Ski the Slopes, Incorporated的商人一样，我的生意显然也将会增长。但是我还知道如果旅游业增长了，我们社区将会多么繁荣，还不用说它带来的生机和乐趣。由于主要的反对意见来自一些甚至并不住在本社区的环境主义者*，我认为没有理由向他们的观点屈服。First National Bank最终研究了这个方案并同意资助它。因此，我认为没有理由推迟滑雪场的建造。
*环境主义者是倡导保护自然环境的人。
1. No evidence shows the arguer will also experience a growth in his business. It is possible that the other merchants who support the proposal run relevant business such as skiing paraphernalia while the arguer might not.
2. There is no evidence shows that the state park is suitable for skiing. It’s entirely possible that the terrain there is plain and many other shops have already occupied the space which hampers the author’s plan.
3. No evidence shows the completion of SS will draw more tourists and prosper the community. It is possible that existing ski resorts might be more competitive and attractive. And even if the tourists number is increased it cannot assure that the community will benefit from this because of increased tourism will inevitably bring pollution, noises, jammed traffic and so on into the society which outweighs the achievements of increased tourism.
4. That the arguer found no reason does not necessarily mean that there is no reason for giving in to the environmentalists’ views. It is very likely that the environmentalists’ view is right as they have no interest with the issue while the completion of the SS might bring benefit to the arguer.
5. The delay of the development might result from other factors such as the coordination between FN Bank, the building company and the weather conditions.
157.ski resort 论断：没有理由推迟建设度假村。旅游业上升的话我们的社区会非常繁荣，而且它很有趣。第一国家银行也最后调查了这个计划并同意给资金。由于主要的反对意见还自几个甚至不住在这个社区的环境保护者，我觉得没有理由采纳他们的意见。
·前提，没有证据表明滑雪度假村一定会使旅游业上升。
·度假村可能会带来的负面作用。环保主义者的反对意见，说明建度假村对环境有影响。
·是否有能力建设，有银行提供资金不能保证就能建了。
176.The following is a memorandum from the sales director to the president of the Healthy-and-Good food company.
"A recent study indicates that Venadial, a new margarine currently produced only in the country of Alta, actually reduces cholesterol levels. Derived from the resin of pine trees, Venadial works by activating a metabolic response that is not yet well understood. However, cholesterol levels fell ten to fifteen percent among participants in the study who consumed Venadial daily, and the risk of heart attack by one-third. In addition, the new margarine is so popular that stores in Alta are unable to keep it on their shelves. Therefore, if our company obtains the exclusive right to sell Venadial internationally, our profits are sure to increase substantially within a very short time."
最近一次研究表明，当前仅在Alta生产的新的人造黄油Venadial实际可以降低胆固醇指标。Venadial从松树树脂中提炼而来，它通过一种现在还未完全明确的代谢反应发生作用。然而，在那些每天食用Venadial的研究对象中，胆固醇指标下降了10－15％，心脏病发病率下降了三分之一。而且，这种新的人造黄油非常受欢迎以至于在Alta的商店中往往一抢而光。因此，如果本公司取得在Venadial的全球独家代理权，我们的利润肯定能够在很短的时间内显著增长。
1. The study might be problematic: the number of participants, their eating habits , their age and health condition, their lifestyles.
2. The side-effect of V has not been mentioned in the memo. It is possible that V might contribute to the increase of other risks or cause some other health hazards.
3. The popularity in Alta might not be applicable to the market internationally. It is possible that in other places, people might prefer more tasty margarine or they have their own healthy ones. Probably there are many competitive companies outside the markets of Alta.
4. To have the exclusive right might be of no use. It is possible that other factories might produce margarine similar to V or even better than V in the near future as they see its profit.
5. The profits also depend on the cost of transportation, promotion and some other factors.
176.a new margarine 论断：如果我们公司获得销售V的国际专营权，我们的利润一定会在很短时间内有显著增长。因为V能降低胆固醇，而且这个新的产品非常受欢迎，以至V的产地A的商店跟不上供应。一份研究显示V，从松树的上炼取树脂，可以促进新陈代谢的某种反应目前还不是很清楚。但在研究中，每天吃V的人胆固醇含量下降了10%到15%，且心脏病危险少三分之了。
·前提，A地销量好，不一定全球就好。有的国家胆固醇含量没那么引人关注，有的地方只用real butter. ·获得专营权没用，既然是炼松脂，会有其它公司也能生产类似的产品。甚至用其他原料生产同样效果的产品。
·副作用的问题没有考虑。response is not yet well understood. ·论据的有效性不明。
202.Humans arrived in the Kaliko Islands about 7,000 years ago, and within 3,000 years most of the large mammal species that had lived in the forests of the Kaliko Islands had become extinct. Yet humans cannot have been a factor in the species' extinctions, because there is no evidence that the humans had any significant contact with the mammals. Further, archaeologists have discovered numerous sites where the bones of fish had been discarded, but they found no such areas containing the bones of large mammals, so the humans cannot have hunted the mammals. Therefore, some climate change or other environmental factor must have caused the species' extinctions.
大约7000年前人类到达了Kaliko岛，在3000年内曾经生活在Kaliko岛的树林中的大型哺乳动物绝大多数已经灭绝了。然而人类并不是导致这些物种灭绝的因素，因为没有证据表明人类与这些哺乳动物有很多接触。而且，考古学家发现一些有大量鱼骨被抛弃的场所，而他们并没有发现存在大型哺乳动物骨头的类似场所，因而人类并没有猎杀这些哺乳动物。因此，一定是一些气候上的变化或其他环境因素导致了这些物种的灭绝。
1. There was no significant contact between human and the mammals indicates that humans have contacts though not significant with those mammals might exist but have not been found.
2. No contact does not equal to no responsibility. It is possible that humans drove these species away from their natural habitats by intruding on their territory without close contacts. Or humans cut off their access to major food which they fed on by consuming the food or destroy them. (the break of food chain, pollution)
3. It is possible that humans discarded mammals’ bones during different time period or in other places outside of K Island. Or they did not discard mammals’ bones but took full advantage of them to make decorations or tools.
4. No evidence shows the fish bones were discarded by humans. It is possible that the fish bones were left by other predators.
5. It is possible that not the environmental and climate factors that cause the extinction but some other species stronger and fiercer that caused the extinctions of large mammal species.
202.Humans arrived 7,000 years ago,within 3,000 years mammal extinct. 论断：天气变化或其他环境因素导致了种类灭绝。因为人不可能是灭绝的一个因素。没有证据表明人和哺乳动物有很多接触。另外考古学家发现了很多带有鱼骨的地方，但没有发现含有大型哺乳动物的骨头的地方，所以人不可能捕杀哺乳动物。
·前提，不是人造成的灭绝。没有接触也能造成灭绝，破坏食物链，污染等等。
·前提，人没有捕杀哺乳动物。没有发现有遗弃骨头的地方，不证明不猎杀。有可能只带肉回来，或是把骨头做成了装饰品。There still a logical error made by the arguer by treating a lack of proof that something is the case as consituting sufficient proof that it is not the case.
·结论：就算不是人造成的，人也脱不了干系。(cannot have been a factor??)
42.The following appeared in a proposal from the economic minister of the country of Paraterra.
"In order to strengthen its lagging economy, last year the government of the nearby country of Bellegea began an advertising campaign to promote ecologically sound tourism (ecotourism). This year the number of foreign visitors arriving at Bellegea's main airport doubled, and per capita income in Bellegea increased by ten percent. To provide more income for the population of Paraterra and also preserve the natural environment of our tiny country, we too should begin to promote ecotourism. To ensure that our advertising campaign is successful, we should hire the current director of Bellegea's National Tourism Office as a consultant for the campaign."
临近城市Bellegea的政府为促进其落后的经济，去年开展了一项对生态旅游的广告推广。今年到达Bellegea主要机场的外国游客数量翻了一番，人均收入增加了10％。为增加Paraterra居的收入并保护我们有限国土的天然环境，我们也应该推广生态旅游。为保证我们广告策略的成，我们应该雇佣Bellegea现任国家旅游局的主任来担任广告的顾问。
ecotourism，Paraterra. 论断：论者提出我们非常应该推广生态旅游，并进一步建议雇用B国旅游办的现任经理做广告顾问。因为B国去年开始用广告推动生态旅游，今年到B国主要机场的外国游客多了一倍，而且它们的收入也增加了10%。
·论断忽略了一个前提，就是我们是否有足够的生态旅游资源。如果没有这方面的资源，或是资源不足以吸引人，一切推广活动和广告都是空谈。非常不幸，论者忽略了这一点。
·而对于雇用B国旅游办的经理做广告顾问的建议，其中有一个必需的前提是不被保证的。就是雇用此人有利于我们的广告，但论者既没有提供资料证明B国的成功是因为广告做得好，也没有提供证明此人了解我国的情况，这些资料没有，都不能保证雇用他会对我们的广告有利
·没有证据说明收入的增加和机场接待人数的增加是因为广告的原因，可能是因为刚刚扩建了机场，作为中转机场。
·论者论据不具有说服力。论者引用B国的成功经验，说到他们机场的顾客多了一倍，收入升了10%。首先B国的生态旅游不一定是成功的，因为到机场的顾客不一定参加生态游，而且收入的上升也可能是因为B国在其他领域的发展。其次B国的经验是否适合我们，论者没有给出任何资料，说明两国在生态资源、人文环境、国际地位方面有什么相同，这些都不是因为是邻居而必然相同的。论者引用的论据对于说服我们推广生态游和雇用广告顾问都没有说服力。
·论者结论太武断。论者说为提高收入保存自然环境，我们太需要推广生态游。但论者没有提供任何资料证明我们现在收入非常低，或是生态环境很差。另外生态游的开发推广若也不必然带来自己然环境的保存，还需要有好的措施。
结论：论者若要加强说服力，还应该提供本国的生态资源状况，是否能够吸引外国人来旅游。而对于是否用此人作顾问，还需要提供它国生态游发展的具体资料，并提供资料证明他对我国的非常了解。
67.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of a newspaper serving the villages of Castorville and Polluxton.
"Both the villages of Castorville and Polluxton have experienced sharp declines in the numbers of residents who pay property taxes. To save money and improve service, the two villages recently merged their once separate garbage collection departments into a single department located in Castorville, and the new department has reported few complaints about its service. Last year the library in Polluxton had 20 percent fewer users than during the previous year. It follows that we should now further economize and improve service, as we did with garbage collection, by closing the library in Polluxton and using the library in Castorville to serve both villages."
Castorville和Polluxton两个村镇都经历了地产税纳税居数量的下降。为节省开支并提高服务质量，两个村镇最近合并了它们一度独立的垃圾收集部门，成立了座落于Castorville的单一部门，新部门所上报的关于其服务的投诉很少。去年Polluxton的图书馆使用者比前一年减少20％。这表明我们现在应该象我们在垃圾收集方面所作的一样进一步经济化和提高服务，通过关闭Polluxton的图书馆和使用Castorville的图书馆来为两个村镇提供服务。
1. The new department might fail to report some of its complaints (hoping to get more support, working errors)
2. The drop in Polluxton might be an aberration and will not last long. And the number of readers in Polluxton might still larger than that in Castorville.
3. The two distinct services cannot be compared. A united library might bring great inconvenience to people in Polluxton.
4. Other measures might be more effective: enhance law enforcement.
Castorville and Polluxton,merged 论断：我们应该通过关闭P的图书馆使用C的为两村服务来进一步节约和提高服务。因为图书馆使用者比前一年少了20%。而且两家最近为了省钱并提高服务合并了以前分开的垃圾收集部门，新部门建在C，而且它很少遭到服务的投诉。
·前提不一定成立。前提是这样作节约也能提高服务，但没有资料证明这一点必然发生。论者没有资料证明居民对于图书馆合并的看法，也没有提供资料证明费用会下降，这使得前提不一定成立。
·论据没有说服力。首先垃圾部门的成功，不一定保证图书馆进行相同的合并也会成功，两个部门工作职能不同，面临的问题也不同。
另外新部门没遭到投诉也不证明这种合并是成功的，也许因为时间还不长问题还没有暴露出来。而且也存在有可能管理部门没有报告问题。
第三论者也没有在这个例子中说明费用降低了。
·论断结论仓促。合并能行也不一定是关闭P使用C，应该考虑一下两家图书馆的情况，和居民使用的情况，来决定是否进行合并，以及关闭哪一家。
结论：论者没有忽视了问题的复杂性，盲止凭借经验做出结论。如要增加说服力，还应该进一步了解两家城市居民对图书馆的使用情况，以及对于合并的看法，以及合并的可行性。另外对于经验的借鉴，论者应该再了解新部门的运行情况，并针对图书馆的特点提供可行方案。
168.Typically, as people age, their bone mass decreases, making them more vulnerable to bone fractures. A recent study concludes that the most effective way to reduce the risk of fractures in later life is to take twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium daily. The three-year study followed a group of French women in their eighties who were nursing-home residents. The women were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose of vitamin D and calcium. In addition, the women participated in a light weightlifting program. After three years, these women showed a much lower rate of hip fractures than is average for their age.
通常当人们衰老的时候，他们的骨质减少，使他们容易骨折。最近一项研究认为在老年减少骨折危险的最好办法就是每天服用双倍于推荐用量的维生素D和钙。这项为期三年的研究跟踪了一组在养老院生活的80多岁的法国妇女。她们每天被给予两倍于推荐用量的维生素D和钙。而且，这些妇女参加了轻微的举重活动。三年之后，这些妇女髋关节骨折的发生率低于同龄人的平均水平。
1. The number of the subjects is insufficient. The subjects of the study cannot represent all elderly people, possible that those French women were already very healthy before they took the test. It is also possible that French women’s body structure is better-established than people in other countries resulting from their healthy lifestyles, healthy eating habits and regular sporting activities. Besides, three years of the study might be too short to make conclusions.
2. They were given daily supplements of twice the recommended dose doesn’t necessarily mean that all of them had taken the pills. Other major factors might contribute to the low rate of bone fractures: necessary care and attention by nursing-home, safe infrastructure preventing accidents in nursing-home, the light weightlifting program and the food they ate in the nursing-home. It is also possible that they were more cautious than before and that there might be other elements in their daily food that took the credit.
3. Low rate of hip fractures doesn’t equal to a same low rate of fractures of other body parts. It’s very possible that vitamin D and calcium can only work for hip fractures.
4. Taking twice the daily dosage of vitamin D and calcium might cause some potential undesired side effects which the author had overlooked.
5. Other methods might be better: the dosage of VD and C together with other medicines and mild exercise.
168.age people bone mass decreases,vulnerable to fractures 论断：降低骨折的最有效途径是以后每天吃两次推荐数量的VD和钙。一项对一组看家的八十岁法国女人为期三年的研究发现，这些女人每天吃两次含推荐量的VD和钙营养品。另外她们还参加一个轻度的增肥计划。三年后，这些女人表现出比她们年纪平均要低得多的屁股骨率。
论断的代表性还值得讨探，没有提人数，又仅限于某种女人。
·屁股骨折少了，其它骨折没提。
·没有排除其它因素，比如增肥计划，或是她们比以前更加小心了。另外营养品里是不是还有其它成份在起作用。
·没有直接的证据证明VD和钙能够counteract the vulnerability caused by the bone mass decrease.
服食过多的VD和钙可能会有副作用，文中没有说。
195.The following is a letter from an editor at Liber Publishing Company to the company's president.
"In recent years, Liber has unfortunately moved away from its original mission: to publish the works of regional small-town authors instead of those of big-city authors. Just last year, 90 percent of the novels we published were written by authors who maintain a residence in a big city. Although this change must have been intended to increase profits, it has obviously backfired, because Liber is now in serious financial trouble. The only way to address this problem is to return to our original mission. If we return to publishing only the works of regional small-town authors, our financial troubles will soon be resolved."
近年来，Liber很不幸地偏离了其原始使命：出版地区性小城镇作家的作品而不是那些大城市作家的作品。就在去年，我们出版的小说中有90％都是由那些在大城市拥有一处住所的作家写的。尽管这一改变的目的一定是为了增加利润，但它显然事与愿违，因为Liber现在正处于严重的财政问题之中。解决这一问题的唯一途径就是回到我们的原始使命。如果我们回复到只出版地区性小城镇作家的作品，我们的财政问题将很快得到解决。
1. The circumstance of the last year might just be an aberration and the one-year experience is not enough to gain any conclusions.
2. It is possible that the serious financial crisis did not result from the changed policy. It is possible that the problems have already existed for a long time: the poor management, the high costs of publishing. It is even possible that the changes of policy might have done some improvements to relieve the problems but not enough as the time is short. It is possible that other factors rather than the authors’ residence contribute to the decline in the sales of the company: the content of the novels, the cover of the books, the prices.
3. No evidence shows backing to the original policy will solve the problems soon. It is possible that the increase in sales will take a relatively long time to return to its original. It is also possible that other competitors have already occupied the market of works of regional small-town authors and thus the company might have little profit in this field. Another possibility is that novels are not popular at present, and thus neither the two policy will do any help.
195. publish small-town authors instead of those of big-city 论断：恢复只出本地小镇作者的书财政问题很快就会解决。因为去年90%的小说都是大城市的作者的，我们现在处于严重的财财政麻烦当中。
·前提，我们现在的财政麻烦是因为去年90%的小大城市小说作者的书造成。没有资料证明这些书卖得不好。成本上升，书市不好都可能。
·前提，工作重心转移的问题。论据里的问题：小说是否是出版社的大头。如果95%的书都不是小说，这90%就不能说明我们的工作重心发生了转移。
·被忽略的前提：是否小镇上的作者出书量还有那么多。
·结论：没有证据证明只出小镇的作者书就会解决财政问题。没说有人愿意看呀。而且拒绝大城市作家的书，这会带来问题。
225.The following appeared as part of a letter to the editor of a local newspaper.
"During her three years in office, Governor Riedeburg has shown herself to be a worthy leader. Since she took office, crime has decreased, the number of jobs created per year has doubled, and the number of people choosing to live in our state has increased. These trends are likely to continue if she is reelected. In addition, Ms. Riedeburg has promised to take steps to keep big companies here, thereby providing jobs for any new residents. Anyone who looks at Ms. Riedeburg's record can tell that she is the best-qualified candidate for governor."
在州长Riedeburg在位的三年中，她证明了自己是一个合格的领导者。自从她就任以后，犯罪减少了，每年创造的就业机会数量翻了一番，选择在本州居住的人数也增加了。如果她再次当选，这种趋势很可能将会继续下去。而且，Riedeburg承诺说要采取措施使大公司留在这里，从而为新居提供就业机会。任何目睹了Riedeburg工作成就的人都会认为她是州长的最佳人选。
1. No evidence shows those changes result from the efforts of GR. It is possible the cumulative efforts of the former governors contribute largely to the changes. It is also possible that the drop in the crime rate is due to legislative or judicial actions over which R had no control. No evidence shows an increase in population is a positive development as they might increase the crime rate and potential unemployment or even social chaos.
2. No evidence shows keeping big companies in the state is a good idea. It is possible that those companies are not willing or able to hire new residents (plan to curtail new hiring, hire fewer than small companies). The author failed to tell what kind of big companies Riedeburg would like to keep, possible that many of them are heavy industrial companies which means if they all stay the environment of the state will be polluted which in return threatens people’ health.
3. And also there is no guarantee that the big companies still need new comers, it is possible that their staff has been saturated. And new residents might not meet the requirements of big companies to get a job.
4. One or more other candidates might be better qualified. And no evidence shows R will still be qualified and competent in the position as her new policies and future plans are untold.
225. worthy leader， trends are likely to continue if she is reelected. 论断：R是最合格的统治者候选人。因为她在任的三年里，R证明了自己是个有价值的领导者，犯罪下降，每年新的工作机会翻倍，越来越多的人选择在我们州居住。如果她连任，这样的趋势将继续。另外，R还许诺会采取措施留住几家大公司，这样能给新的居民提供工作。
·前提，R连任，情况会保持。没有证据。论者没有提供任何有关她在未来的任期里将要采取的措施。
·前提，是R让情况好起来的。把目前的好情况都归功给了R，对其他部门官员来说非常不公平。
·前提，大公司给新居民提供工作。没有证据证明这些大公司还能容下新员工，如果不裁员的话。其次，留下，是否已经说明这些公司要离开。
226.The following appeared as part of a memo from the manager of an automobile manufacturing company.
"Because the demand for our automobiles is expected to increase dramatically, we need to open a new manufacturing plant as soon as possible in order to continue to thrive. Our marketing projections indicate that 80 million people will want to buy our automobiles, yet our existing plant can only produce 40 million automobiles. The new plant can be opened on a part-time basis, with workers from our existing site rotating responsibilities, until an operational staff can be trained. A major airplane manufacturer was extremely successful using this part-time rotating strategy when it opened its new plant five years ago."
由于对我们生产的汽车的需求预计将有飞速增长，我们需要尽快开设一处新的制造工厂以保持繁荣。我们的市场计划指出有8千万人将要买我们的车，而我们现有的工厂只能生产4千万辆。新的工厂可以部分时间运转，让我们现有工厂的职工班工作，直到新的员工被培训出来。一家大型飞机制造公司在五年前开设了新工厂的时候使用了这种非全日班策略，取得了极大的成。
1. Whether the marketing projections are accurate and reliable remains to be analyzed. It is possible that 80 million people who are willing to buy change their decisions or they cannot afford the prices.
2. Other measures should also be taken into account. Since the demand is expected to be very high, perhaps the company can continue to thrive simply by raising the price of its cars or even make no changes at all. The cost of opening a new plant might exceed the revenue earned from new buyers.
3. The new plant might not be able to produce as many cars as the existing one as it operates on only a part-time basis. The author didn’t tell when the newly trained operational staff will be offered to work, possible that when they finally meet the quality to be operational staff, all the businesses have gone past. And if the new plant borrows labor from the existing plant then production at the existing one might decline. Rotating responsibility of workers will make their work more strenuous which might cause them to misconduct to shorten their working hours, thus making the quality of automobile lower than the standard.
4. The success of a major airplane manufacturer five years ago cannot simply be applied to the car company. The arguer makes unfair assumption that the conditions of the former and the latter are identical. The extreme success might merely(仅仅是) be an additional production of 10% more airplanes or managing to avoid bankruptcy.
226.part-time rotating strategy 论断：我们需要尽快开一家新分厂以继续繁荣，新的厂可以采用以兼职为基础，用现在的工人轮岗，直到一个可操作的员工训练完。因为市场记录显示有8千万人要买我们的汽车，但我们现有的厂子只能生产4千万。五年前一家飞机制造商用这种兼职轮岗的方式取得了极大的成功。
·前提，市场真的供不应求。首先projection的准确性没有被保证，因为论者没有提供任何资料交待。其次，想买不等于一定会买，但由于经济或其它原因不一定就会买。
·开新厂的开支非常庞大，如果供不应求的局面只是暂时的，将是很浪费，不是继续繁荣。
·现有员工轮岗，会加重员工的工作强度，同时也会使原有工厂的产量下降。它的成功不被保证。而飞机制造与汽车并不相同，而且它们可能还采用了一些其他的方式。
210.The following is a letter to the editor of a news magazine.
"Clearly, the successful use of robots on missions to explore outer space in the past 20 years demonstrates that robots could be increasingly used to perform factory work more effectively, efficiently, and profitably than human factory workers. The use of robots in factories would offer several advantages. First, robots never get sick, so absenteeism would be reduced. Second, robots do not make mistakes, so factories would increase their output. Finally, the use of robots would also improve the morale of factory workers, since factory work can be so boring that many workers would be glad to shift to more interesting kinds of tasks."
显然，过去20年中机器人在探索外层空间任务中的成使用证明，机器人可以比人类工作人员更有效、更有益地用于进行很多工作。工厂中机器人的使用将带来若干好处。首先，机器人从不生病，从而旷工将会减少。其次，机器人不会出错，因此工厂产量将会增加。最后，使用机器人同样也会提高工厂工人的精神状态，因为工厂工作有时如此枯燥以至于很多工人将会乐于转换到更有趣的任务。
1. The kinds of tasks robots perform outer space might have a lot of differences to those in factories. It is possible that the average space-mission requires less technique than a typical factory robot would be required to perform. The efficiency of space robots might be largely due to their endurance of extreme condition while human cannot bear, while in factories, this advantage disappears.
2. The arguer ignores the scenarios that robots might break down sometimes and require regular maintenance, which is tantamount to absenteeism. The costs to repair broken robots might be higher which offset the profits it brings.
3. Robots can also make errors as the computer programs preset in the robots corrupted the system files. Human can correct mistakes however robots cannot.
4. No evidence shows the morale of factory workers will be improved. It is possible that factory workers are not reassigned to other types of jobs as there is no vacancy or they are not capable of the new work, or they are assigned to jobs less interesting. The rise in the morale might do little help to the lift in efficiency: they might not be proficient at the new work.
5. The high cost of introducing robots into factory and maintenance fees should also be taken into account.
210.use of robots on missions to explore outer space 论断：机器人探索外空间在过去20年里的成功使用表明机器人在工厂里的更多使用能比工人更有好，更有效，利润更多。因为它有几个好处：第一机器人不得病，所以旷工会减少。第二机器人不会犯错，所以产量能上升。最后机器人的使用还会提高工作的士气，因为工厂工作很枯燥，工作会愿意换去做其他更有意思的活。
·被忽略的前提：有无用于工厂使用的机器人。外空间探索与工厂工作是两回事，软硬件要求都不一样。
·所提到的三个好处：第一，机器人会出故障，不但停工还得花钱修。第二，机器人只会执行命令，出现异常没有主动性和创造性地解决问题，带瑕的产品不能防止。第三，没有工人说现在的工作枯燥，换了工作后也还人枯燥。另外有没工作给他们，如果因为机器人而被解雇的风险到是挺大。
·结论：利润不一定上升。买机器人的钱，维修的钱。技术工人的钱等等。不是所以有的行业都适合。
211.The following appeared in a memorandum to faculty from the academic vice president of Waymarsh University.
"So that we can better accomplish Waymarsh University's academic goals, we should adopt the job-opportunity (job-op) program offered at Plateau Technical College and strongly encourage all students at Waymarsh to participate in it. The success of the job-op program at Plateau is evident: over the past two years, more than 75% of the freshmen at Plateau have enrolled in the optional job-op program. Moreover, at Plateau, the grades of job-op students are consistently higher than those of other students, 90% of the job-op students receive job offers within a month after their graduation, and most former job-op students report much success in their careers."
为使我们更好的完成Waymarsh大学的教学目标，我们应该采纳Plateau技术学院所提供的就业机会（job-op）课程，并积极鼓励所有Waymarsh的学生参加该课程。Plateau的job-op课程的成就是证据：在过去两年中，Plateau75％的一年级学生选修了job-op课程。而且，在Plateau参加job-op课程的学生成绩要比其他学生高很多，90％的参加job-op的学生在毕业后一个月内得到了就业机会，多数以前的job-op学生报告了在他们职业中的成。
1. It is possible that the goals of W have nothing to do with enrollment in job opportunity programs. W might perform well and even better than PTC in this field and efforts are needed to make improvements in other fields such as the quality of education, investment in research programs.
2. No evidence shows the higher graders and success in careers that students attain result largely from the job-op program. It is possible that other factors such as: the school emphasizes more on the program and loose management of and give less attention to other students, or the requirements of the program are lower than that of normal courses so the tests those students took were easier that they could score high. And there is no comparison of the job employment condition between students who take part in the program and who not. The author merely pointed out the figure that 90% of the enrolled students’ employment but not show the number of employment of the students who didn’t enroll the program. It is possible that 90% of other students even perform better.
3. The author didn’t show the grades and careers of those students who didn’t enroll job-op program, it is very possible that those students performed as well as those who enrolled. It is also possible that the students who didn’t enroll spent less time getting a suitable job offer right after their graduation or even before they graduate.
4. The report by the students who had once enrolled job-op might not tell the truth at all. It is very possible that the jobs of other students are much better and satisfactory than those who once enrolled job-op program.
5. No evidence shows job-op program will have the same effect in W. It is possible that fewer students have interest and enroll in the program. They might concern more about their academic study rather than vocational training. The program, which might be oriented toward the needs of students at technical schools, is not likely to be successful in placing graduates of universities where academics is the major task.
211.job-op program 论断：为了更好地完成W大学的学术目标，我们应该采用P校提供的工作机会项目，并强烈鼓励W大学的学生参加。P校的这个项目的成功是有证据的：过去两年里P校75%以上的一年级学生都参加了这个可选择的项目。而P校这个项目的毕业生比其他学生的分数高很多，而且90%毕业后一个月内就收到了工作offer，大多数以前这个项目的学生也报告说职业生涯很成功。
·前提，工作项目会受学生欢迎。没有证据表明W校的学生会喜欢，而P校的经历没有参照性。学校不一样，学生不一样。
·前提，P校的这个项目成功。第一，75%的一年级学生参加，但他们还会退出，新生嘛，可以理解，什么都不了解嘛。第二，分数比别人高，不一定是项目的功劳，而收到OFFER的问题，什么工作？W的学生或许大多数还没毕业就能收到。第三，谁愿意说自己工作不成功呀。
·结论：W的学术目标是什么？让学生找工作？还是研究，培养四有新人。
217.The following appeared in a brochure promoting the purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms.
"Now is the time to invest in a franchise so that you can profit from opening one of our gyms in your town. Consider the current trends: Power-Lift Gyms are already popular among customers in 500 locations, and national surveys indicate increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness. Furthermore, last year's sales of books and magazines on personal health totaled more than $50 million, and purchases of home exercise equipment almost doubled. Investing now in a Power-Lift Gym franchise will guarantee a quick profit."
现在是投资于Power-Lift Gym特许权的良好时机从而你可以在你们城市开设一家体育馆。考虑一下当前的潮流：Power-Lift Gym已经在500个地点的消费者中相当流行，全国调查表明对于减肥和健身的关注越来越多。而且，去年关于个人健康的书籍和杂志销售总额超过了5千万元，家庭健身器具的购买量几乎翻了一番。现在投资Power-Lift Gym特许权将保证快速致富。
1. No evidence shows the popularity among customers will continue. It is also possible that the market has already been saturated and thus any additional PLG will not be as successful as current ones. Or perhaps other gyms have also increased in tandem with(与此同时) the general interest in health and fitness.
2. Increasing concern with weight loss and physical fitness is no sign that people will go to gym. Even if some people go to gym it cannot guarantee that they will go to PLG.
3. No evidence shows the sales of those books and magazines are increasing. It is possible that $50 million revenue is far less than that of the previous years. Even the sales increase, it is possible that content on healthy and balance diets or living styles, not on weight loss and physical fitness attracts readers.
4. The increase in the purchase of home exercise equipment and books and magazines on personal health lend no support to the argument that PLG will guarantee a quick profit. It is possible that people prefer to do exercise at home. And total number of PL memberships might even decline as a result.
217.purchase of local franchises for a national chain of gyms. 论断：投资P的联锁经营权能保证很快营利。因为有这样的趋势：P已经在五百个地方的消费者中很流行了，而且全国性的调查显示对减肥和体形健康的越来越关注。另外，去年在个人健康方面的书和杂志一共卖了5千万，而家庭健身设备几乎翻了一倍。
·前提：是否所有的P都在营利。
·既然五百多个地方都已经有P，市场是否还有空间允许新的投资进入。
·论据，这些论据只能说明在全国范围内人们越来越关心体形健康，除此之外没有任何意义。第一是投资人当地也许没有这样的趋势。第二是关心体形健康的人不保证都会去体育馆建身。这家体育馆的主营项目是什么我们并不知道，另外家用设备翻番说明人们有在家里锻炼的趋势，而不是去体育馆。
239.The following appeared as an editorial in the local newspaper of Dalton.
"When the neighboring town of Williamsville adopted a curfew four months ago that made it illegal for persons under the age of 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m., youth crime in Williamsville dropped by 27 percent during curfew hours. In Williamsville's town square, the area where its citizens were once most outraged at the high crime rate, not a single crime has been reported since the curfew was introduced. Therefore, to help reduce its own rising crime rate, the town of Dalton should adopt the same kind of curfew. A curfew that keeps young people at home late at night will surely control juvenile delinquency and protect minors from becoming victims of crime."
4个月前当邻近城市Williamsville实行了宵禁，规定18岁以下人员在晚上10点以后在公共场所闲逛和逗留被视为非法的时候，Williamsville在宵禁时间内的青少年犯罪下降了27％。在Williamsville的市镇广场，一个曾经因发生在这里的高犯罪率而导致市反感的地方，在宵禁实施以来没有一起犯罪被上报。因此，为降低日益增长的犯罪率，Dalton市也应该实行同样的宵禁。把青少年留在家中的宵禁肯定能控制青少年犯罪并保护未成年人不成为犯罪的牺牲品。
1. No evidence shows the overall crime rate has declined, or that the curfew was responsible for any such decline. It is possible that adult crime rate has risen despite of the decline in youth crime. Besides, other factors might be responsible for such decline: enhancing police enforcement, established social programs that help minors avoid delinquency(未成年人犯罪), bans on other potential crime activities.
2. Lacking report of crime does not adequately show that W’s curfew has been effective. There were no crimes reported W town square doesn’t mean they don’t occur in other places of William town. It is possible that the number of crimes reported in the square does not reflect the number actually committed there, the crime number might be higher than expected. It is also possible that the crime rate has already declined to a low level before the curfew.
3. No evidence shows the curfew would protect minors from becoming crime victims. It is possible that those crimes occur during other hours. Or they will commit suicide out of pressure of being grounded.
4. No evidence shows similar curfew would be effective and necessary in D as well. Perhaps the percentage of crimes that are committed by adults is actually treacherous(真正隐患) to the security of D. Or the crimes committed in D are rarely done at all. Or the crimes usually happen in daytime which makes curfew in D futile.
239.illegal under 18 to loiter or idle in public places after 10 p.m. 论断：D城应该采用同样的宵禁政策。因为让年轻人晚上必须呆在家里一定能控制青少年犯罪并使弱者不会成为犯罪的牺牲品。因为隔壁W四个月前采用了这样的政策，让18岁以下的人晚10点以后不得在公众场所闲逛，少年犯罪在宵禁期间降了27%。在W广场，以前臭名昭著的高儿犯罪场所，从那儿以后没有报告过一起犯罪。
·前提，D城的青少年犯罪是主要的。没有证据证明。
·前提，宵禁管用。论据的问题。首先宵禁期间犯罪少了，不证明整个少了。其次D城的广场上没有犯罪，不证明别的地方没有了。第三没有报告犯罪，也可能是还没有发现。non-open way.
·结论：有人说D城的晚上不安全吗？
17.The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Walnut Grove town newspaper.
"Walnut Grove's town council has advocated switching from EZ Disposal (which has had the contract for trash collection services in Walnut Grove for the past ten years) to ABC Waste, because EZ recently raised its monthly fee from $2,000 to $2,500 a month, whereas ABC's fee is still $2,000. But the town council is mistaken; we should continue using EZ. EZ collects trash twice a week, while ABC collects only once. Moreover, EZ-which, like ABC, currently has a fleet of 20 trucks-has ordered additional trucks. Finally, EZ provides exceptional service: 80 percent of respondents to last year's town survey agreed that they were 'satisfied' with EZ's performance."
Walnut Grove的市委提议选择ABC Waste，而不是EZ Disposal（它是过去十年中和Walnut Grove签约提供垃圾收集服务的机构），因为EZ最近把他们每月的收费从$2000提高到了$2500，而ABC仍然是$2000。但市委是错误的，我们应该继续使用EZ。EZ每周收集两次垃圾，而ABC只收集一次。而且，EZ当前的卡车拥有量和ABC一样都是20辆，但它已定购了更多的车辆。最后，EZ还提供优越的服务：去年市镇调查中80％的回应者同意他们对于EZ的表现是"满意"的。
EZ提价不代表服务标准也会提高，而且过去十年的服务情况不明，也许ABC一直比EZ还好，只是人们没有注意到。
EZ提价是否合理？也许是因为公司内部财政原因 而不是出于优化服务的考虑。
EZ每周集两次垃圾也许是效率不高，相比ABC只需一次清理就可以完成任务。
ABC只需20辆就可以高效完成清理任务，而EZ订购更多车辆，也许是因为效率不高需要填加车辆，并不能说明什么。
什么exceptional service？也许是因为办事效率不高所以才提供额外服务。即使真的有额外服务也不能说明ABC就没有，也许ABC提供的服务更好。
80%的回应人不具代表性，也许参与回应的人都是对EZ满意的或是根本没有说真话，而那些占主导地位的不满意的人就没参与调查。
Walnut Grove,trash collection 论断：EZ比ABC好，所以还应该继续用EZ。因为虽然E的费用高，但是E每周收两次垃圾，A每周只收一次，而且E最近还新添了垃圾车，会提供更多的服务。另外有80%的被访问者同意他们对E的服务满意。
·论断的前提非常不公平，他认为A不能提供像E一样让人满意的服务，却没有给出足够的证据。除了提到A公司每周收一次垃圾外，论断没有提供任何有关A公司的服务纪录，比如信用问题、采用何种技术等等。而该城在过去10年里一直用的E，市民包括论者很可能都缺乏对A的了解。这样在E提高了服务费用的前提下，论者没有理由不让市民尝试使用较便宜的A。
·论断使用的论据不并具说力。论者说E每周收两次，而A只有一次。但是有没有可能每周一次就已经足够了？两次有必要吗？论断都没有提供这方面的资料。我们没能排除每周两次的服务是多余的，虽然这多出的50%的服务只多收了25%的费用，但对于市民来说都是一种浪费。
另外论断说E最近新添了卡车，还会提供更多的服务。但这两者之间却没有明显的因果关系。首先论断没有提供证据新卡车一定用于该市的垃圾处理，我们就不能排除这有可能是A公司新扩展了业务，比如为另一个城市服务，这样论者所说的更多的服务就不可能实现。再有就是是否需要的问题，如果说现有的已经多余了，再添新的更多余。
有关论据中提到的调查也很有疑点，首先论据没有提供资料调查采取了任何措施以保证调查样本具有代表性，我们不排除有可能对E满意的人才接受了调查，或是寄回调查问卷，而且调查也没有显示人们愿意为这种满意再多支付25%的费用。
·论断认为E更好所以还要用E，结论做得太草率。论断甚至没有告诉我们E为什么突然要提价，价格是否合理。我们不排除十年的合同使E没有受到竞争的压力才导致提价。另外政府的财政状况也是决定是否接受这多出来的50%的费用的关键，对此论断也没有提供资料。我们不排除政府也需要还有其他更紧迫的事情需要花钱，因而不能接受提价。
结论：论断要求市府接受高价的垃圾处理服务非常没有道理也很不公平。如果要进一步说服大家的话，论者还需要了解E公司提价的原因，以及未来所能提供的服务。另外市民的需求以及市府的财情况也需要了解。
34.Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium, substances essential for building and maintaining bones. Many people therefore believe that a diet rich in dairy products can help prevent osteoporosis, a disease in which the bones weaken significantly with age and that is linked to both environmental and genetic factors. But a long-term study of a large number of people has found that those who have consistently consumed dairy products throughout the years of the study have a higher rate of bone fractures than any other participants in the study. Since bone fractures are a symptom of osteoporosis, this study result shows that a diet rich in dairy products may actually increase, rather than decrease, the risk of osteoporosis.
牛奶和奶制品富含维生素D和钙，这是骨骼生长和维持所必须的物质。因此很多人相信多吃奶制品的饮食可以帮助预防骨质疏松症，这是一种骨骼随年龄而显著弱化而且与环境和基因因素相关联的疾病。但是一项对大量人群的长期研究发现那些在研究期间经常食用奶制品的人骨折发病率比其他参加研究的人要高。由于骨折是骨质疏松症的症状之一，这一研究结果表明富含奶制品的饮食实际上会增加而不是减少患骨质疏松症的危险。
Milk and dairy products are rich in vitamin D and calcium 论断：吃奶制品会提高患这种病的可能性。因为一项研究发现坚持吃奶制品的人比其他人有更高的骨折率，而骨折这种病的一个病症。 ·论断的前提并不一定保证成立。论断从高骨折率而推出更容易患病，但却没有提供证据证明骨折就意味着患病。虽然骨折是这种病的一个病症，所有患病的人会骨折，但不是所有骨折的人都患有这种病。还有很多种情况会导致人骨折，所以不能从高骨折率而得出易患病的前提。
骨折是骨质疏松症状之一，不代表出现骨折就会导致骨质疏松症。引起骨折发生的原因有很多，剧烈运动，先天性骨质疏松，缺钙等等
·论者的论据不具备说服力。论者说一项对很多人长期的研究发现，那些在研究进行的一年里坚持吃奶制品的人，比研究中的其它人有较高的骨折率。但论据没有提供有关参与研究的人群的性别、年龄、职业等特征的分布，也没有提供坚持吃牛奶的人的资料以及骨折的原因。如果说如果说坚持吃牛奶的人都是老人，不吃牛奶的都是青壮年，或者骨折人经常打球，或是常有剧烈的运动或冲撞，这都不能证明骨折与吃奶制品有关。
·论者的结论也很武断，因为他忽视了年龄问题、环境问题、遗传问题等对患病的影响。如果说吃奶制品的人群有高骨折率，高骨折率也意味着更容易患病，那么究竟是奶制品在起主导作用，还是环境、年龄以及遗传因素在起主导作用。论者的结论没有考虑到这些，因而很武断。
结论：论者若想增强说服力还应该提供这项研究更详细的资料，比如样本人群年龄分布、职业分布，以及骨折人的原因是否是因为患上了这种病。另外还需要有进一步的科学研究，以证明奶制品的确会导致患病。
97.The following appeared in a memo from the manager of television station KICK.
"A nationwide survey reveals that a sizeable majority of men would like to see additional sports programs on television. After television station WACK increased its sports broadcasts, its share of the television audience in its viewing area almost doubled. To gain a larger audience share in our area, and thus increase company profits, KICK should also revise its broadcast schedule to include more sports coverage."
一项全国性调查发现，大多数的男性希望在电视上看到更多的体育节目。在WACK电视台增加了体育节目后，在其收视范围内的收视率几乎增加了一倍。为在本地区获得更高收视率，并从而增加公司利润，KICK也应该修改其播出计划来播放更多的体育节目。
1. Among the audience of television programs, women might be in the majority. Therefore, even a sizeable majority of men might only accounts for a small proportion. And the nationwide survey might be inapplicable to Kick’s viewing area.
2. Even if men would like to watch additional sports programs is no sign that they will watch. It is also possible that men in the KICK area cover only a small proportion of the audiences, if KICK add more sports programs they will lose their major audiences.
3. The increase in the share of audience in WACK cannot simply equal to that in Kick. (different viewing area, a considerable number of male residents, different make-up of audience, some special sport events, other factors contributing to the increase) It’s very possible that KICK already has a lot of sports programs yet WACK just began to add sports programs which of course will attract many male audiences.
4. The time shortened in other programs might result in a decrease in the share of other audience, which might even reduce the total amount of audience. The fee of broadcasting sports program might be higher than the profit it brought. Other measures might be better.
television station KICK 论断：为了扩大我们在本地区的观众面，进而提高公司利润，K也应该修改它的广播安排包括增加更多的体育报道。因为一份全国性的调查显示，相当多数的男人会愿意看更多的电视体育节目。在W提高体育节目后，它们地区的电视观众几乎翻了一倍。
·前提是增加体育报道会扩大观众面，但是论者的论据并不能保证这一点。首先全国的情况与本地区的情况不一定完全相同，所以那份调查也就不一定能说明本地区也会有同样的情况存在。其次调查显示男人爱看，那么女人、孩子、老人对体育节目的态度如何，不考虑这些，这样的调整就有可能失去部分现有观众。
·W台，首先W在另一个地区，该地区人们的生活习惯、性别比例都与我们不同，所以他们的经验不一定适合我们。另外W的收视率增加不一定是因为体育节目，W有可能还进行了其他的改变，而且没有资料显示增加的观众主要是男人。第三很有可能W台以前的体育节目非常少，就是现在也没有我们多，那么就不能证明我们现在仍需要增加。
·结论武断，增加体育报道需要多投入，而且我们不一定在此有优势。另外即使增加体育报道会扩大我们的收视范围，但如果没有广告对此感兴趣，也不能提高公司利润。
结论：论者没有对本地区的观众以及本台的节目进行了解，单凭一份普通意义上的调查和别人的经验就得出结论。他应该进一步了解本台的观众收视偏爱，并了解体育节目的广告情况。
174.The following recommendation was made by the president and administrative staff of Grove College, a private institution, to the college's governing committee.
"We recommend that Grove College preserve its century-old tradition of all-female education rather than admit men into its programs. It is true that a majority of faculty members voted in favor of coeducation, arguing that it would encourage more students to apply to Grove. But eighty percent of the students responding to a survey conducted by the student government wanted the school to remain all female, and over half of the alumni who answered a separate survey also opposed coeducation. Keeping the college all-female, therefore, will improve morale among students and convince alumni to keep supporting the college financially."
我们建议Grove学院保留其已有百年历史的女校传统，而不是允许录取男性。确实有大部分员工投票赞成男女同校，认为这会使更多的学生申请Grove。但由学生会所组织的一次调查中，有80％的被访学生要求学校维持女校形式，并且在回应了一次单独调查的校友中超过一半的人也反对男女同校。因此，维持女校形式将促进学生的精神状态并且让校友继续对学院进行财政资助。
1. The two surveys are statistically unreliable: the number of respondents, their grades (freshmen might prefer all-female policy while elders have found its shortcomings.) There is no sign that those who disagree have not donated substantial sums to the school.
2. The donation might not decrease if G begins admitting male students. Since accepting males is welcomed by faculty, and thus it might improve faculty morale and result in the increase in the quality of instruction and in turn having a positive impact on alumni donations. Or it is possible that those who disagree are not financial supporters and those who will donate but didn’t participate in the survey most support coeducation.
3. It is possible that students’ morale will not be impacted by the change of policy. How they will be influenced has not been illustrated in the memo and it is very likely that their morale depends on other factors like the quality of education, school environment and qualified facilities rather than the policy. And the new boys might have a fresh and high morale which might help to cheer up students in return.
174.century-old tradition of all-female education 论断：维持全女生，会提高学生的士气并让校友继续支持学校的财政。因为学生会做的调查中80%的被访者希望学校维持全女性教育，一半以上的校友在另一个调查中也反对联合教育。尽管大多数的教师投票赞同联合教育，认为这样可以使更多的学生申请我们。
·前提，联合教育会降低士气减少校友支持，没有证据。
·论据，两校调查都没有具体的总数，调查本身的可性度不高。而且可能会有其他问题使得他们没有说实话，比如女生可能都比较害羞。而且同意改变就意味着对现状不满意，有人会影响这种心理而不说实话。
·比较扩大申请带来的收入和校友捐资减少。 ·结论：尽管学生真不喜欢联合教育，学校也应该从教育的目的考虑，不能一味顺从学生。社会是男女共存的，联合教育可能比全女生教育更合适。有可能80%就已经说明学生有问题了。
192.The following is a letter to the editor of the Roseville Gazette.
"Despite opposition from some residents of West Roseville, the arguments in favor of merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville are overwhelming. First, residents in both townships are confused about which authority to contact when they need a service; for example, the police department in Roseville receives many calls from residents of West Roseville. This sort of confusion would be eliminated with the merger. Second, the savings in administrative costs would be enormous, since services would no longer be duplicated: we would have only one fire chief, one tax department, one mayor, and so on. And no jobs in city government would be lost-employees could simply be reassigned. Most importantly, the merger will undoubtedly attract business investments as it did when the townships of Hamden and North Hamden merged ten years ago."
尽管West Roseville的一些居持反对意见，支持合并Roseville和West Roseville的呼声还是占了上风。首先，两地区的居经常搞不清在需要服务的时候应该和哪个政府联系；举例来说，Roseville的警署接到过很多West Roseville居的电话。这种混乱可以通过合并来消除。其次，管理开支将会得到很大节省，因为服务不再重复：我们将只有一个消防局，一个税务局，一个市长，以及其他等等。市政府的工作岗位并不会减少，雇员可以被重新委任。最重要的是，合并无疑会吸引更多的商务投资，就像Hamden和North Hamden在十年前合并时所发生的那样。
1. The scenarios that residents turn for the other police department might just account for a small proportion in the total number of calls. And the Residents’ confusion about which authority to turn to might result from other problems: the case occurring near the boundary of the two towns, or difficult access to emergency reports in West Roseville. The problem might not be solved if the reason is the latter.
2. Cost might not be saved as it is extended rather than duplicated. Services need to be offered to the people of the two towns and the amount of present necessary infrastructures might not be enough to serve all the residents. The amount of departments’ work will not be reduced as they merged into one. Undoubtedly, the costs will be much higher than expected.
3. Because of increased residents and merged services, lost-employees might not be reassigned as there is no vacancy of new jobs or jobs available for them.
4. Situations might be different from their expectation: the overall economy might not be attractive to investments. Unfair assumption that R and WR are identical with H and NH. It is possible that the population in both H and NH were very thin, a lot of jobs were left vacant and the staff didn’t have much work to do while the situation in R and WR were the opposite. The mergence of R and WR will not bring profit as much as that of H and NH.
5. The problems of the mergence should also be taken into account.
192.merging the townships of Roseville and West Roseville 论断：尽管一些WR的居民反对，合并R和WR的好处还是占上风的。首先两镇的居民现在在需要服务的时候总不清楚到底该找谁，合并后就不会有这事儿了。第二，节省下来的管理开支会很庞大，因为服务不再双份。另外政府的工作也不会少，员工可以简单地重新分配。最重要的是，合并无疑会吸引商业投资，十年前H和NH合并的时候就是这样的。
·第一，例子没有代表性。而且其他解决的办法很简单。
·第二，开支不一定会节省。虽然工作是单份的，但会是庞大的。而且这样的后果是使机构更复杂，可能会降低工作效率。
·第三，人员重新分配。既然工作不再双份，必然岗位减少，需要员工减少。这一条与第二条矛盾。另外就算你不矛盾，工作内容也会影响。
·第四，例子不说明问题。时间不同，地点不同，没有可能比性。另外他们的投资吸引可能是因为经济的发展和其他措施，也许与合并没有关系。
212.The following appeared in a memorandum from the new president of the Patriot car manufacturing company.
"In the past, the body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned, and our cars have not sold as well as have our competitors' cars. But now, since many regions in this country report rapid increases in the numbers of newly licensed drivers, we should be able to increase our share of the market by selling cars to this growing population. Thus, we should discontinue our oldest models and concentrate instead on manufacturing sporty cars. We can also improve the success of our marketing campaigns by switching our advertising to the Youth Advertising agency, which has successfully promoted the country's leading soft drink."
在过去，Patriot汽车的车型已经过时了，我们的汽车没有竞争对手的车卖的好。但现在，由于我国很多地区的新驾驶员数量飞速增加，我们可以通过向这一日渐增长的人群出售车辆来增加我们的市场份额。因此，我们应该停止生产最老的型号而集中力量生产新颖的汽车。我们也可以通过把我们的广告交给Youth广告公司来促进市场推广的成功，这家公司曾经为本国销量最大的软饮料进行过成功的促销。
1. It is possible that other factors instead of the body styles should be responsible for the decline in the sales of P car: fails to hold influential advertising campaigns, adopt unsuccessful price strategy, poor quality of the cars, energy-wasting engine systems.
2. The reports might not be reliable as the statistic analysis is inaccurate. It is possible that the increasing new drivers only account for a minute and insignificant population as total number of people and drivers in these regions are small. The reports also contain no information about other regions where the number of new drivers might decline.
3. No evidence shows the newly licensed drivers will buy new cars. It is possible that the majority of them will buy second-hand cars or cannot afford to buy any cars.
4. No evidence shows newly licensed drivers will tend to favor Patriot’s sporty new cars over other manufacturers’ new vehicles. It is possible that they prefer other body styles such as business series or they cannot afford the price of the cars, or they care more about the performance of the car rather than its appearance.
5. Y might not be effective in promoting P cars as the experience in one industry cannot easily be applied to another. Other advertising agency with abundant experience of promoting cars might be more suitable.
6. Youth Advertising might not do as well in promoting cars as in soft drinks. And just like the agency’s name those advertisements like soft drinks are mainly made for youth, even if the ADs of cars attract a lot of young audiences, it doesn’t mean they can afford and will buy the car.
212.body styles of Patriot cars have been old-fashioned 论断：我们应该停止最旧款的车型而集中制造运动型轿车，我们应该用Y广告公司。因为我们的车型已经过时，车也没有对手的卖得好。不过现在很多地区新拿驾照的人数迅速上升，我们应该可能通过向这个增长部分的人群售车提高利润。另外，我们还可能换用Y广告公司促进销售的成功，他们已成功地推销了这个国家最主要的软饮料。
·前提：运动型轿车会有市场。没有直接证据证明，新拿驾照的人喜欢运动型车。而且运动型车也有新款和旧款。
·前提，新拿驾照的人会买车。没有直接证据证明。他们可能借、买旧车以及租车。
·前提：Y广告推销成功了饮料，但他们可能不了解汽车市场。
·结论：尽管没有对手卖得好，旧款车不一定就销量就不行。而且不一定是款型的问题，性能，舒适以及价格都有可能。而且销售成功，广告只是一个因素。
220.The following appeared in an article in a magazine for writers.
"A recent study showed that in describing a typical day's conversation, people make an average of 23 references to watching television and only 1 reference to reading fiction. This result suggests that, compared with the television industry, the publishing and bookselling industries are likely to decline in profitability. Therefore, people who wish to have careers as writers should acquire training and experience in writing for television rather than for print media."
最近一次研究显示当描述日常对话的时候，人们平均有23次提到看电视而只有一次提到读小说。这一结果说明与电视行业相比，出版和书籍销售行业的盈利能力可能会下降。因此，想要以作家为职业的人应该接受为电视而不是为印刷媒体写作的训练和经验。
1. The study might not be statically reliable. The people studied are not necessarily representative of the overall population. It is possible that those who participated in the survey were the people who love watching TVs.
2. No evidence shows the frequency with which a person refers in conversation to television or to fiction books has any correlation with the popularity. It is possible that the contents of television programs are more suitable for daily talk while books are more for personal contemplation.
3. Even books and magazines are less popular than TV programs, it is not necessary that these industries are likely to decline in profitability. Popularity has no direct relation with profit. TV industries and print media have different ways of gaining profits. And therefore lacking comparisons of popularity and profitability of the two media at present with that in the previous years, the arguer cannot draw the conclusion about the profitability.
4. Fiction is only one type of print media which cannot represent the whole print media business. It is possible that people merely don’t like reading fictions. Besides, many TV shows are edited from printed dramas and fictions.
5. No evidence shows television writers enjoy more secure and lucrative careers than book writers. It is possible that television writers are paid comparatively low wages. And it is also possible for writers to acquire training and experiences in both of the two fields.
220.people make references to television and reading fiction. 论断：想当作家的人应该获得为电视写作的训练经验而不是为印刷媒体。因为最近一份研究显示人们日常的谈话平均引用电视和小说的比例为23:1。这个结果表示，与电视产业相比，出版和书的销售利润可能都在下降。
·前提，出版和销售的利润在下降。没有任何有关的数字。而所谓的调查只讲了小说，而印刷媒体中有很多种，不只是小说。电视的利润也不一定就是在上升。
·论据，该调查非常不可信，首先描述不科学。其次，比较的是电视和小说。但是电视节目内容很广，比如新闻、或是其他类似issue的东西。这些因为与人们生活比较接近，所以容易被谈论到，但这些都不是作家可以写的。第三，电视因为其媒介的特性，一般为很多人同时收看，而小说阅读是相对个人的活动，所以不太容易被谈论到。但人们的谈论与他们主要接触什么样的媒体并没有直接的联系。
·结论：事实上有很多东印刷媒体的东西并改编成了电视，当初压根没想它的。
23.A recent sales study indicated that consumption of seafood dishes in Bay City restaurants has increased by 30 percent over the past five years. Yet there are no currently operating city restaurants that specialize in seafood. Moreover, the majority of families in Bay City are two-income families, and a nationwide study has shown that such families eat significantly fewer home-cooked meals than they did a decade ago but at the same time express more concern about eating healthily. Therefore, a new Bay City restaurant specializing in seafood will be quite popular and profitable.
最近的销量调查显示Bay City餐馆的海鲜菜肴的消费量比过去五年增加了30％。而现在该市还没有专门经营海鲜菜的餐厅。而且，Bay City的大多数家庭是双收入家庭，一次国家调查显示这类家庭在家做饭的数量比十年前显著减少，同时他们更关注健康饮食。因此，在Bay City开设一家新的专营海鲜食品的餐馆将会非常受欢迎而且有利可图。
seafood dishes in Bay City 论断：建一个专门的海鲜饭店会受赚钱。因为过去5年里本市饭店里海鲜的消费量增长了30%，而目前也没有一家专门的海鲜餐馆。另外本市大多数家庭都是双收入，一份全国性的调查显示这样的家庭比十年前更少地在家里做饭，而同时更关心食品健康。
·论断的前题是专门的海鲜饭店在本市是需要的，但这个前提并没有被保证成立。因为论者没有提供任何证据以证明当地人想要一家专门的海鲜饭店，也没有证据表明本市人对目前普通餐馆的海鲜供应不满意。虽然论者提到本市海鲜消费五年前增长了30%，但这只说明海鲜食品受到人们更多欢迎，而并不代表专门的海鲜饭店是需要的，因为论者没有说有多少人去普通的餐馆却只消费海鲜，更有可能的情况是人们在吃海鲜的时候还愿意点其他食品。从论断中我们并不能看到在本市有必要建一家专门的海鲜餐馆。
·论断的论据中也存在问题。论者说本市的家庭多为双收入的，而全国范围来说这样的家庭较少在家里吃，而更关心饮食健康。但首先这与专门的海鲜餐馆是否营利并无直接关系，因为没有证据证明这些双收入家庭更愿意到专门海鲜店吃饭，或是更愿意吃海鲜，也没有证据他们认为到专门的海鲜店或是食用海鲜比其他的方式更健康。而且全国范围的情况是否与本地相同也不被保障，缺乏对本地消费者的了解，生硬套用全国经验，使得论据没有说服力。
·论据说专门的海鲜店会受欢迎会赚钱，这个结论有些武断。餐馆的经营很关键，就算有市场需求但经营不善，都可能使得餐馆不赚钱。论断没有提出任何关于专门海鲜店在经营服务上有设想，甚至没有提出这样的餐馆能不能比普通餐馆提供更好的海鲜服务，比如品种多，口味、服务态度、食品卫生、食品新鲜程度等等。这样我们都无法得出结论会赚钱。
结论：论断还太过武断也很片面。要想增强说服力，论者还需要提供有关本市对海鲜食品消费的习惯，要求，以及现有的普通餐馆在海鲜食品的服务上是否有不让人满意的地方。另外还应该提供对于这家餐馆的经营的具体方案。
159.The nation of Claria covers a vast physical area. But despite wide geographic differences, many citizens are experiencing rising costs of electricity. A recent study of household electric costs in Claria found that families who cooled their houses with fans alone spent more on electricity than did families using air conditioners alone for cooling. However, those households that reported using both fans and air conditioners spent less on electricity than those households that used either fans or air conditioners alone. Thus, the citizens of Claria should follow the study's recommendation and use both air conditioners and fans in order to save money on electricity.
Claria这个国家覆盖了广泛的地理区域。但尽管存在很大地理差异，很多居都遇到了电费上涨的经历。最近一项对于Claria家庭用电花费的研究发现，那些单独使用风扇来降温的家庭电费花费比那些单独使用空调降温的家庭要多。然而，那些报告说同时使用风扇和空调的家庭电费花费比单独使用风扇或空调的家庭少。因此，Claria的居应该遵从这个研究的建议，同时使用空调和风扇来节省电费花费。
1. The argument provides insufficient information about the study on which it relies. The number of families, their consumption habits, the number of family members, their job (like computer frequently needed job).
2. The time which the study was conducted might also influence the conclusion, especially if it only bases on a short period. It is possible the study was carried out in a season during which a typically hot wave attacked the area where people use fans for cooling.
3. Since C covers a vast physical area, it is possible those areas only fans are used might have a comparatively cold weather year-round, and that the high electric costs were due to the use of heaters or electric fire or the use of other electrical appliances. And the regions equipped with both fans and air-conditioners might less need for artificial cooling or other electrical appliances.
4. Or those who only use fans or AC also use other appliances in the meantime but those people who use both fans and AC don’t.
5. The costs per unit of electricity might differ from region to region. It’s entirely possible that it charges much higher per unit of electricity in those cities that only use fans or air conditioners than the cities use both fans and air conditioners.
159.rising costs of electricity 论断：C的居民应该同时使用空调和电扇来省电费。因为最近对该国家庭电费的调查发现，仅用电扇降温的家庭比仅用空调降温的家庭电费更高，但是两个都用的家庭花得比它们都少。调查存在的问题：
·前提，家庭用电不只在降温上，还有其他电器。the argue explain the event contributed by many facots with only one reason which is not sufficient to garantee the result.
·前提，两个都用能降低家庭用于降温的电费。各地温度不同，用于此的电费自然不同，该国有vast physical area，这点被忽略了。The argue neglects a very important reason that contribute to the result.
·电价问题。
40. The following appeared in a memorandum from the president of Excello Food Markets.
"In 90 towns where Excello has food markets, natural-food stores specializing in organic food products—products containing no chemical preservatives and made with foods grown without pesticides—have opened nearby as competitors. Surveys of our own customers reveal a growing concern about foods grown using pesticides or preserved with chemicals. Recently our market in Sun City participated in a local food tasting fair, and 75 percent of the fair goers who visited the Excello booth requested free samples of organic fruit. Such evidence indicates that to increase our profits, we should begin to stock a full line of organic food products in all our markets."
虽然有市场，但是有机食品的材料采购(material purchasing)和生产成本(production cost)呢？不一定保证盈利，也许已经有好多竞争企业在做了而且很好。
调查不具有代表性，也许参加的都是关注的人们但那些没有参加且不关心的人占多数。
顾客关心，不代表就会去购买有机食物。影响顾客购买食品的因素有很多：口味，品牌，价格等
SUN City不能代表其他89家超市的情况，75%的goers也许只是为了去品尝免费食品或出于好奇但并无购买的意向。
就算organic fruit有市场也不代表所有的organic food都有市场。
Excello Food Markets,organic food products 论断：为了提高利润，我们应该在所有的商场里全线推出有机食品。因为在90个我们的市场边都出现了天然食品尤其是专营有机食品的竞争者。论者举例说，一份对于我们自己顾客的调查显示有越来越多的人关注食品使用杀虫剂和化学防腐剂。最近我们在太阳城的商场参加了一次当地的食品品尝会，75%到我们柜台来的人要求免费品尝有机水果。
·论断忽略了一个前提，就是有机食品是否能给我们带来利润。虽然论者说它很有市场，但关于有机食品的生产和采购成本问题，论者没有考虑到。如果成本很高，推出有机食品不一定能带来利润。
·论断的论据不具备说服力。为了说明有机食品有市场，论者举例说一份对自己顾客的调查显示人们越来越关注食品中使用杀虫剂和化学防腐剂的问题。但首先论者没有描述这份调查是否科学，被调查者有哪些特征，是否具有代表性，调查的可性度没有被保障。另外顾客只是表现出对杀虫剂和防腐剂的关注，并没有表示会选择购买有机食品。顾客购买食品会考虑到很多因素，比如味道、品牌等等。而调查没有提供资料，这种关注会多大程度上影响顾客的购买行为。
·论断的另一个论据同样也没有说服力。论者说在太阳城的品尝会上，75%光临我们柜台的人要求免费品尝有机水果。首先太阳城的情况不一定适合其他地区，要求全线推出没有理由。其次这75%的人是否具有代表性？他们有没有同时品尝非有机食品，他们提出免费品尝有机食品的原因是什么，是真想购买，还是好奇，或是因为它是免费。第三提出品尝的是水果，不代表他们对其他有机食品也感兴趣。
·论断说出现了很多天然食品尤其是专营有机食品的竞争者。但是论者没有提供任何资料表明他们的市场很好，利润很高。如果说他们惨淡经营，我们就更没必要涉足了。
·论断的结论非常武断。他提出在所有商场全线推出，但每个地区的情况肯定不一样，货原、市场要求、顾客态度都不相同。要求全线推出太鲁莽。
结论：论者要加强说服力还需要提供有机食品的利润大小和它的成本，另外有多少顾客想购买有机食品，而杀虫剂和化学防腐剂的问题又会在多大程度上影响他们对食物的挑选。
46.Although black bears are common in the eastern Canadian province of Labrador, grizzly bears-often similar in color, but much larger-were believed to exist only in the western provinces. Despite a nineteenth-century explorer's account of having startled and narrowly escaped from a grizzly bear deep in the woods in Labrador, modern scientists find no physical evidence that grizzly bears have ever lived in Labrador. But recent research into the language and legends of the Innu, a people who have lived in Labrador for thousands of years, reveals that their language has words for two different kinds of bears, and their ancient legends attribute different characteristics to the two kinds of bears. Therefore, there probably were grizzly bears in Labrador, and the explorer's account probably accurately identified the bear.
尽管黑熊在加拿大东部的Labrador省份很常见，那种与黑熊颜色类似，但要大的多的灰熊被认为只存在于西部的省份。尽管存在一名19世纪的探险者在Labrador丛林深处遭遇一头灰熊并惊险地逃脱的记载，现代学者并没有发现灰熊曾在Labrador生活的证据。但最近对于已在Labrador生活了数千年的Innu人的语言和传说的研究发现，他们的语言中对于两种不同的熊有不同的词汇，他们的古老传说中确认了两种熊的特征。因此，Labrador可能曾有过灰熊，探险者的记载有可能精确地记叙了熊的存在。
eastern Canadian province,grizzly bears 论断：L地可能有过G熊，探险者的描述也可能准确地认出了这个熊。因为最近对于一在东部地区生活了几千的民族的语言和传说研究发现，他们的语言中有两个词语描述两种不同的熊，而且他们古老的传说也给这两种熊赋予不同的特征。
·论断的前提不一定成立。前提是该民族的语言和传说中两种不同名称不同特征的熊有一个是G。但是论者没有提供资料证明该民族对熊的特征的描述与G熊吻合。可能他们给了这种熊一个nickname。
·论断的论据不合适。论断使用对该民族语言和传说的研究作证明，不足以说明问题。首先语言和传说以及对其的研究都加入了人的想象，这使得在科学性上没有保障。其次该民族在东部Lardor地区生活了几千年，那么在这之前他们是否有可能生活在西部地区，而关于熊的词和传说是否是在到东部来之前就有了。这些论者没有提供资料，所以无法证明该民族对于熊的单词是对东部地区的熊。该民族语言和传说研究最多证明东部曾有过两种熊，但并没有证明是G熊。
·论者的结论太武断。该民族在东部生活了几千年，他们的语言和传说中有G熊，并不能说明十九世纪的时候东部地区也有G熊。而十九世纪的探险者当时被吓到了，他的判断是可能不真实的。论者得出他可能认出了熊的结论太武断。
结论：论者要想加强说服力，还需要提供该民族传说中关于熊的特征是否与G熊相同，传说是否是在东部地区的经验上形成的。但是要得出令人信服的结论，论者还是需要提供具体的文字记载或是科学研究。
99.The following appeared in a memo from the economic minister of the small country Paucia.
"Using a newly developed variety of seed, farmers in our neighboring country Abundia produced 80 percent more rice last year than in any previous year. To increase the income of farmers in our own country, we should encourage them to cultivate this new variety of rice rather than some of their traditional crops. Such high yields of rice will also improve our country's balance of trade by enabling us to begin exporting it."
通过使用一种新研制的种子，我们临近国家Abundia的农在去年生产了比以往多80％的大米。为增加我们国家农的收入，我们应该鼓励他们培育这种新的大米品种，而不是那些他们的传统谷类作物。这种大米的高产量也将会使我国通过出口大米促进贸易平衡。
1. Other factors contribute to the increase of rice production. (Scientific planting method, ideal climate, advanced machines and effective pesticide).
2. Unfair assumption that A and P are identical in the aspects of the climate, soil environment, quality of water). It’s also unfair to make a comparison of the productivity between the new variety of rice and the traditional crops in P
3. The cost of newly developed variety might be too high for the farmers in P to afford, or the cost will exceed the profit it brings, and thus reducing the income of farmers.
4. The balance of trade depends on both export and import, and it might not be improved if the country’s export has already exceeded import. And if the newly developed seed should be imported from A, it might worsen the trade deficit.
5. There might already be many competitive competitors doing the same commerce for trading.
6. The author failed to prove whether the rice production in A is larger than that in P after its 80% increase. It is very possible that even if the output of rice has increased 80%, the total amount of rice is still lower than Paucia.
a newly developed variety of seed 论断：为增加农民收入，我们应该鼓励他们种植这种新种子而不用传统的庄稼。这样粮食高产将促进我们的贸易平衡，通过出口。因为隔壁国家去年用了这种新种子，农民产粮比以前任何时候都高出80%。
·忽略了一个前提，即这种新植子是否适合我们国家种植。如果它根本无种植，就谈不上高产。
·论据没有说服力，首先，隔壁目前产粮多少，如果现在还比我们少，就不值得借鉴经验。其次，他们是否还同时采用了新的技术或是新的制度，这些都有可能提高产量，使得不能把成绩都给新种子。
·结论没有根据。首先，在没有和传统庄稼进行比较的情况下就做了选择。如果说传统的庄稼在质量上、农民技术使用的熟练上、以及居民口味的喜爱都优于新种子，就不应该鼓励农民放弃旧的用新。其次，农业种植受到种子成本、技术、气候变化的影响，以及环境的影响，即使新种子高产，也不能必然保证农民的收入增加。第三没有证据保证它能满足国内对粮食的需求，这样就不可能拿它出口。
结论：论者应该进一步了解新种子是否适合本国种植，并应该进行初的实验以得出在本国的表现，是否会比传统的庄稼好。
119.The following is a letter to the editor of the Waymarsh Times.
"Traffic problems here in Waymarsh are obviously reaching record levels. While just three months ago it would take me 15 minutes to get to work, it now takes closer to 25. Waymarsh should follow the example of our neighboring city Gearsville. Last year, Gearsville implemented a policy that rewards people who share rides to work with coupons for free gas. Pollution levels in Gearsville have dropped since the policy was implemented, and several friends who live in Gearsville tell me that their trip to work is quicker than it used to be. With the terrible traffic and high pollution in Waymarsh, we must implement a policy similar to Gearsville's."
Waymarsh的交通问题显然正在接近纪录。仅仅三个月前我上班路上需要15分钟，现在几乎需要25分钟。Waymarsh应该借鉴我们临近城市Gearsville的例子。去年，Gearsville实施了一项政策，奖励那些合伙搭车上下班的人以免费的汽油券。政策实施之后Gearsville的污染水平下降了，一些住在Gearsville的朋友告诉我他们上班比以前要快。鉴于Waymarsh严重的交通与污染问题，我们必须实施和Gearsville类似的政策。
1. It is hasty to draw the conclusion from personal experience or the experience of only a few people. It’s possible that the author himself was riding an auto three months ago but now is riding a motorbike to work. Or it’s also possible that three months later W started to put speed limit on drivers which slowed the author to work. (driving skills and style, road construction, speed limit, road improvement，different vehicles by the drivers)
2. The road condition of three months ago doesn’t necessarily indicate the true situation in W now. It is possible that it’s been raining heavily these days which slowed the speed the author went to work. Or W is reconstructing the road which needs drivers to circumvent, thus taking more time for them to go to work.
3. The drop of pollution levels might result from other factors. (using more environment-friendly vehicles, ban on releasing toxic emissions or enclosure of some heavy-polluted chemical industries )
4. The situation might not be identical in G as a large number of people might already share rides or few people care about the rewards. Or it is possible that the population in G is dense but the population in W is very thin and the land in W is also vaster than the one in G and the amount of private cars in G is larger than that in W, therefore residents of W don’t have to share rides.
4. The author failed to explain the situation of severe traffic and pollution in Waymarsh. It is possible that the situation in W is not as severe as what the author stated at all.
119.Waymarsh,Traffic problems 论断：我们必须采取和隔壁G城一样的政策。因为我们的污染和交通问题都非常严重。三个月前我上班花15分钟，现在差不多需要25分钟。G城实施政策用免费的油票鼓励人们共用车，政策实施后G城的污染一直在下降，而几个住在那儿的朋友告诉我他们上班比以前快了。
·不一定成立的前提，即我们的污染和交通问题很严重。首先论者没有提供有关我们的污染问题有哪些，情况怎样，我们无法知道他的说法是否正确。其次交于交通问题的恶化，仅凭他个人的经历不能说明整个城市的问题。因为三个月的时间还不足让整个城市的交通恶化到论者所描述的程度，也许是论者上班的道路上局部发生了一些变化，比如可能有施工等暂影响交通的因素。
·G城的措施能解决我们的问题。首先两个城市的必然存在的差异使得G城的经验不一定会适合我们，比如居民密度，车辆拥有量等。如果G城居民密度大，彼此之间距离近，而我们居民之间住得远，就使得共用车无法实行。其次，用免费油票剌激居民共用车上班，有可能增加居民在其他方面多用车。
·G城解决得很好。首先论者没有为我们排除其它因素带来G城的污染下降的可能，比如G城关闭了污染严重的工厂等，这使得我们无法确信是共用车制度使汽车污染下降。其次关于交通问题，论者用的几个朋友的表述也不足信，因为各别人的经历同样无法代表整个城市的变化。
结论：论者的推论考虑不周全，仅凭个人感觉就作出武断的推论。提出的建议也不值得采纳。
190.The following is a letter to the editor of the Glenville Gazette, a local newspaper.
"Over the past few years, the number of people who have purchased advance tickets for the Glenville Summer Concert series has declined, indicating lack of community support. Although the weather has been unpredictable in the past few years, this cannot be the reason for the decline in advance ticket purchases, because many people attended the concerts even in bad weather. Clearly, then, the reason for the decline is the choice of music, so the organizers of the concert should feature more modern music in the future and should be sure to include music composed by Richerts, whose recordings Glenville residents purchase more often than any other contemporary recordings. This strategy will undoubtedly increase advance ticket purchases and will increase attendance at the concerts."
过去几年中，购买了Glenville夏季音乐会的预售票的人数减少了，表明它缺乏社会支持。尽管过去几年的天气确实有些变化无常，但这并不是预售票销售减少的原因，因为很多人即使在坏天气下仍然参加音乐会。显然，销量下降的原因是音乐的选择，因此音乐会的组织者应该在未来提供更多的现代音乐，并保证演奏更多的Richerts作曲的作品，Glenville的居购买他的唱片的数量显著多于其他的当代音乐唱片。这一策略无疑将会增加预售票的销量并增加音乐会的上座率。
1. The decrease of purchase of advance tickets does not equal to the reduction of audiences. It is possible that an increasing number of audiences choose to buy tickets on the scene to avoid unpredictable bad weather or other events.
2. Because the weather is unpredictable, it is possible that those experienced unpleasant weather in previous concerts might not purchase tickets any more.
3. Other factors might contribute to the decline in popularity: the live sound effect, the increase in the price of the tickets, the organization of the concerts, the transportation to the scene
4. No evidence shows changing music to modern music especially that composed by R will gain popularity. It is possible that the concert’s major audiences are fans of classic music, and thus modern music might even have the reverse effect.
5. And the popularity of R’s recordings does not mean people in Gellenville would love to listen to his music in the concerts. It’s possible that since people already have his recordings at home so they wish to hear something new to their ears at the concerts. That probably R’s recordings are the only choice that people have to choose if they want to listen to music since the CD shops in G don’t offer other categories at all. It is possible that his songs are not suitable for live performance.
190.advance tickets for the Concert series 论断：音乐会的组织者今后应该更多选择当代音乐并保证有R的音乐，当地人比其它的当代唱片更经常买他的，这个策略无疑会提高预售票的购买，并提高音乐会的出席率。因为不是天气不可预测影响了预售票的发售，所以下降是音乐的选择问题。过去几年系列音乐会预售票的下滑，显示社会区没有支持。
·前提，社会不支持。预售票下滑，可能出席率仍然很高。当天售票的多了。只是不愿早买票了，谁知道还有没有别的事
·前提，不是天气的原因。就算的确下滑，还有其他问题存在。首先没能有效排除天气的影响，有可能人们不愿意浪费，所以后来就不再买预售的票了。而且也有可能那几场特别重要。另外，音乐会的质量问题，演奏技术问题都有可能。
·是音乐选择的问题。没有证据关于人们不喜欢以前音乐会上的曲目。也没有人说喜欢现代音乐，R的唱片卖得好，不一定适合现场演奏，也不一定人们就还会去听。
205.The following appeared in a recommendation from the president of Amburg's Chamber of Commerce.
"Last October the city of Belleville installed high intensity lighting in its central business district, and vandalism there declined almost immediately. The city of Amburg has recently begun police patrols on bicycles in its business district but the rate of vandalism there remains constant. Since high intensity lighting is apparently the most effective way to combat crime, we should install such lighting throughout Amburg. By reducing crime in this way, we can revitalize the declining neighborhoods in our city."
去年10月Belleville市在其中央商业区安装了高照度灯光，那里的破坏公物的行为几乎立即减少。Amburg市最近开始在其中央商业区安排警察骑自行车巡逻，但破坏公物的发生率并没有变化。由于高照度灯光显然是震慑犯罪的最有效途径，我们也应该在Amburg全市安装这种灯光。通过以这种方式减少犯罪，我们可以使本市重新繁荣起来。
1. The immediate decline in vandalism in B might not be attributable to the lighting: other effective deterrent such as adding police units, enhancing law enforcement and installing more monitoring cameras.
2. It is very possible that the police patrols have already been carried out efficiently but the period of this policy is too short to let people see a significant change in vandalism.
3. It is possible that the vandalism rate in A is already on a low level while that in B is much higher. It is also possible that other factors serve to the increased vandalism: worsening economic conditions, a demographic shift.
4. Unfair assumption that B and A are identical: different methods of vandalism might be used in different places. And thus installing lighting might not be effective in A. It is possible that the high intensity light will be destroyed in the near future.
5. Even if the vandalism is reduced, the rate of crimes may not decrease. Vandalism is only one kind of crime; it cannot be representative of all kinds of crimes.
6. No evidence shows the decline of neighborhood’s low rate of crimes result from the vandalism. It is likely that other factors such as the rate of other crimes, the environment, the depression of economy, the price of housing, the quality of education, the taxation influence people’s choices.
205.intensity lighting and vandalism 论断：降低犯罪后，我们可以扭转我们城市人际居住环境的下降，我们应该在全A装这样的灯。因为它显然是打击犯罪的最有效途径。去年十月B城在商业区中心这样作了，肆意破坏活动几乎立刻下降。A城最近开始警察骑自行车在商业区巡逻，但是破坏率还是没有变。
·前提，装灯会降底犯罪率。没有直接证据证明这样会有效。隔壁B城的降低了肆意破坏行为，但A可能根本就没有这类的犯罪，而另外抢动强奸到挺多。
·论据也有问题，因为没有证据说是灯起的作用，它们可能同时还有其他措施，比如新法规，比如警察增多等等。
·结论：犯罪降低了，neighborhood也不一定就提高。还有其他因素可能导致，比如经济萧条等等。
6.The following was written as a part of an application for a small business loan by a group of developers in the city of Monroe.
"A jazz music club in Monroe would be a tremendously profitable enterprise. Currently, the nearest jazz club is 65 miles away; thus, our proposed club, the C Note, would have the local market all to itself. Plus, jazz is extremely popular in Monroe: over 100,000 people attended Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians live in Monroe, and the highest-rated radio program in Monroe is 'Jazz Nightly,' which airs every weeknight. Finally, a nationwide study indicates that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment. It is clear that the C Note cannot help but make money."
在Monroe建立爵士乐俱乐部将会是非常盈利的产业。当前，最近的爵士俱乐部也在65英里以外；因此，我们筹建的俱乐部C Note将会占有全部的本地市场。而且，爵士乐在Monroe非常流行：去年夏天10万多人参加了Monroe的爵士音乐节，若干知名爵士音乐家居住在Monroe，Monroe获评价最高的广播节目是平时每天播出的Jazz Nightly。最后，一项全国性研究表明典型的爵士爱好者每年花费近1000元用于爵士娱乐。显然C Note将会。
Jazz club loan, city of Monroe 论断：在Monroe开一家Jazz club会很赚钱。因为该市有很多人喜爱爵士乐，爵士乐迷每年都会有很大笔开销花在与爵士乐相关的事情上，另外该市最近一家Jazz club也很远，所以它们会拥有整个市场。
·论断很片面，赚钱除了与市场环境有关以外还与公司的经营管理密不可分。论断没有提供任何有关他们管理人员的资料，以及他们对Jazz club营销的任何设想。断然认为有好的市场环境就会赚钱。
·论断也武断。认为喜欢爵士乐的人就会去Jazz club。而且听爵士乐的方式有很多，比如电台，比如自己在家听CD等等。电台的乐迷和参加聚会的人并不一定成为他们的消费者，而他们每年在爵士乐上的销费更不一定必须包括去Jazz club的费用。
·论断很仓促。论断认为不叫Jazz club的俱乐部就不放爵士乐，就不是他们的竞争对手。虽然最近一家Jazz club也有65公里远，但也许就在他们旁边就有很多家俱乐部也以爵士乐为主，虽然不叫做Jazz club。另外大多数人去俱乐部的根本原因并不是听音乐，他们用爵士乐做卖点并不一定能在竞争中取胜。
结论：他们应该更多地考虑如何经营俱乐部以保证他赚钱，而不能光依赖外部的环境。另外究竟人们去Jazz club的原因是什么，人们花在俱乐部上的钱又会是多少，都还有待进一步调查。
29.When Ida McAllister ran for mayor of Lake City four years ago, she failed to win even 30 percent of the vote. But since then, McAllister has made public her commitment to environmental causes. She would be wise, therefore, to announce her intention to close all Lake City parks to automobile traffic, thus following the example of the former mayor of Plainsville, Alecia Yu . On the recommendation of a small group of concerned citizens, Mayor Yu prohibited automobile traffic in all Plainsville parks, and therefore was credited with solving the pollution problem and improving the quality of life in Plainsville. This action would have great appeal to the citizens of Lake City, most of whom participate in the community's recycling program, and would guarantee McAllister's success in her current quest to be Lake City's new mayor.
当Ida McAllister在四年前竞选Lake City市的市长的时候，她失败了，甚至未能赢得30％的选票。但从那以后，McAllister公开了她对环境事业的支持。因而，如果她宣布她将会让Lake City所有公园禁止汽车通行的话将会是十分明智的，这里有Plainsville前市长Alecia Yu的先例。在一小群关注该问题的市的建议下，Yu市长在Plainsville的所有公园都禁止汽车通行，因而被称赞为解决了Plainsville的污染问题和提高了生活质量。这一行动对于Lake City的市民将会有极大吸引力，这些市民大部分参加了社区循环再生项目，也会保证McAllister在这次市长竞选中获得成。
Ida McAllister, mayor of Lake City 论断：如果McAllister宣布她禁止汽车进入公园，她就保证会成为新市长。因为另一个市的前任市长就是因为这样做的，而受到称赞，而且本市的市民大部分都参与市区的垃圾重复利用工程。
·论断的前提不一定成立。论断得出结论的前提是，本城的居民欢迎这样的做法。但是论者没有提供任何证据以表明本城的居民不希望公园对汽车开放，也没有提供任何资料表明本城的汽车污染和空气污染受到了居民的关注。这都使得本城的居民并不一定欢迎这样的做法。
·论断的论据不具有说服力。论断引用另一城的前任市长的经验，并说明她因此而被称赞改善了当地的生活质量。但首先论据没有提供资料说两市在空气、环境等问题上有何共同点，他们的经验是否值得本市借鉴。如果说当地的污染问题至今仍比本市差，本市居民是不太可能像当地那样拥护这样的措施的。另外论断那位市长是在一部分居民的建议下做的，做之前已经得到了居民的支持，而McAllister如果在不知道居民意向时冒然宣布，并不一定能像前人那样受到拥护。
·另一个论据是本城人大多数参与社区的垃圾工程，论者认为这表明他们也关心环境问题。但这显然并不能证明这些参与垃圾工程的人，肯定会支持公园不对汽车开放。因为这是两个截然不同的问题，人们的态度不一定必然相同。
·论断结论做得太武断。市长竞选涉及问题很多，市民也不会只看环境一项，他们还会关心候选人是否有办法诸如降低犯罪率，改善财政情况等等。认为McAllister能仅凭一项计划而赢得竞选没有道理。
结论：论者的建议缺乏对本市居民的生活的了解。要想知道这样的计划是否能帮助mAllister 赢得竞选，论者还需要对本城的民意以及环境问题做进一步的调查。
133.The following is a memo from the principal of Academia High School.
"Academia High School should abolish its after-school performing-arts programs and replace them with computer-technology programs. When nearby Techno High School did so last year, total enrollment in all of its after-school activities remained about the same. Moreover, on entering college, many Techno students chose a major directly related to their after-school activities. On the other hand, last year only 10 percent of Academia's graduating seniors chose performing arts as their major field of study in their first year of college, clearly indicating that most students do not have a strong interest in the performing arts."
Academia高中应该废止其课外表演艺术课程而应该以计算机科技课程取而代之。当附近的Techno高中去年采取了这种变化之后，其所有课外活动的参加数量基本没变。而且，很多Techno的学生在走进大学的时候选择了与他们所参加的课外活动直接相关的专业。另一方面，去年Academia的毕业生中只有10％的人选择表演艺术作为他们大学第一年的专业，这显然表明多数学生对于表演艺术并没有很强烈的兴趣。
1. Unfair assumption that T and A are identical in education aims. T might commit to cultivate students with an interest in technology, while A emphasiize on the edifying students’ art education.
2. No evidence shows students in TH benefit more from their after-school activities than those in AH. It is possible that increasing number of students take an active part in A’s after-school activities.
3. Other factors contributed to the choice of students, not merely their interest (want a career in the field of computer-technology)
4. Choosing other majors does not equal to no interest in arts as students might take arts as their favorite activities in their spare time or a second major.
133.after-school performing-arts 论断：A校应该取消它的课后艺术表演项目换成计算机科技项目。隔壁T校去年这么做了，他们整个课后活动的注册保持了。另外进入大学时，很T校学生选择与课后活动直接有关的专业。而A校去年只有10%的毕业生选择表演艺术作为他们在大学第一年的专业，很显然大多数学生对表演艺术没有很强的兴趣。
·不一定成立的前提，A校学生对于表演艺术没有兴趣而对计算机有兴趣。论断里没有学生的声音，论者可能根本没有问题过学生。没有学生说对表演没有兴趣。
·论据不足信，A校与T校的对比不能说明问题。首先，两校在师资、设备及学生等方面都有差异，比如T校在计算机教育上比A校有优势，而A校在表演艺术培训力量又比T校有经验，还有可能对计算机感兴趣的学生都选择去了T校，而选择A校的学生都是对文课有兴趣的，他们都对表演艺术而不是计算机更有兴趣。其次，论者选择的标准不合适，论者选用学生在大学里的专业选择作为学生是否对各自的课后活动项目有兴趣，这不准。因为选择专业学生更多地考虑的是今后的工作，比如薪水、就业机会等等，兴趣并不是他们选择专业的唯一或最主要标准。而选择电脑作专业而不是表演艺术，更可能是因为电脑的就业机会比表演艺术广，应用泛范大。而他们完全可能对表演艺术仍有浓厚的兴趣。毕竟课后活动是为培养学生的兴趣，而不是要对他们进行生存技能培训。
·结论：10%的A校学生选择了表演艺术作专业，即意味着他们将以此为今后的职业。考虑到表演艺术的就业机会比电脑小很多，这已经是一个不小的比例。这部分学生的要求不容忽视。
结论：论者在没有了解学生意见的情况下，是不可能知道学生到底对什么感兴趣。是否要改变课后活动的内容，论者还是应该听听他们的意见并综合本校的教师力量再做决定。
149.The following is a memorandum from the director of personnel to the president of Get-Away Airlines.
"Since our mechanics are responsible for inspecting and maintaining our aircraft, Get-Away Airlines should pay to send them to the Quality-Care Seminar, a two-week seminar on proper maintenance procedures. I recommend this seminar because it is likely to be a wise investment, given that the automobile racing industry recently reported that the performance of its maintenance crews improved markedly after their crews had attended the seminar. These maintenance crews perform many of the same functions as do our mechanics, including refueling and repairing engines. The money we spend on sending our staff to the seminar will inevitably lead to improved maintenance and thus to greater customer satisfaction along with greater profits for our airline."
由于我们的机修师负责检测和维护我们的飞机，Get-Away航空公司应该花钱把他们送去参加一个为期两周的，关于合理维护流程的质量保障研讨会。我推荐这个研讨会是因为这应该是一个明智的投资，因为赛车企业最近报告说他们的维修人员的水平在他们参加完研讨会之后显著提高了。这些维修人员和我们机修师所作的工作有很多是相同的，包括加注燃油和维修引擎。我们用于把员工送去参加研讨会的花费必然会为本公司带来维护水平的提高，并带来更高的客户满意度和更大的利润。
1. The performance of G mechanics might not be subject to improvement. It is possible that their performance is already very high and the seminar will afford little or no improvement.
2. Other factors devoted to the improvement of mechanics: diagnostic technology, more stringent inspection requirements, raising salaries.
3. Unfair assumption that the automobile racing industry and the airlines industry are identical in the work of maintenance. Even the crews perform many of the same functions, the process of refueling and repairing engines of a mobile and a plane might be totally different.
4. No evidence supports that improved performance on the part of G’s mechanics will result in greater satisfaction and profits. Customers might not be aware of the rising levels of mechanics’ skills unless accidents occur. Other factors affect customers’ satisfaction, such as the on-board service, the working efficiency of airport staff; the improving quality of food might influence their evaluation, punctuality and security.
149.Get-Away Airlines,maintaining our aircraft 论断：花钱送员工参加这个研习班一定会使维修技术提高，从而顾客满意度了利润都会提高。因为赛车产业最近报告说他们员工的维修技术在参加这个研习班后有很显著的提高。这些维修人员有很多和我们机师一样的作用，包括加油和维修发动机。
·员工参加研习班技术一定会提高。没有直接证据。提供的没有说服力。赛车行业和飞机会有很大差别，尽管员工的作用一样，但工作的内容不一样。对他们有用，不一定对飞机有用。
·就算提高也不一定顾客就会满意，（punctuality, the on-board service, the ticket price, the luggage handling procedure and even the discount,）（significantly increase it customers or passengers and at the same time cut down its cost,）
171.The following appeared in a memo from the marketing director of Bargain Brand Cereals.
"One year ago we introduced our first product, 'Bargain Brand' breakfast cereal. Our very low prices quickly drew many customers away from the top-selling cereal companies. Although the companies producing the top brands have since tried to compete with us by lowering their prices, and although several plan to introduce their own budget brands, not once have we needed to raise our prices to continue making a profit. Given our success selling cereal, Bargain Brand should now expand its business and begin marketing other low-priced food products as quickly as possible."
一年以前我们推出了第一种产品Bargain Brand早餐麦片。我们低廉的价格迅速从一些销量最大的麦片厂商那里吸引了大量客户。尽管这些厂商曾经试图通过降低价格来与我们竞争，并且尽管有一些公司打算推出他们自己的廉价品牌，但我们从未需要通过涨价来持续盈利。基于我们销售麦片的成，Bargain Brand应该扩展业务，并且尽快开始推出其他的廉价食品。
1. Having many customers doesn’t show that BBC has gained profits. It is possible that the cost in producing cereal is even higher than the sales at a very low price.
2. No evidence shows the profit BBC gains from selling low-price cereal will continue. It is possible that with such fierce competition, BBC’s profits have declined during the years though it could still strive to make a profit. Or it is possible that other competitive products are just promoted recently and need time to become popular.
3. It is very likely it is the taste of the cereal or other factors that contribute to the successful sales of BBC not the price strategy. Profit is a factor of costs and revenue and due to fierce competitions, if BBC doesn’t raise the price, it will soon be kicked out of the market.
4. No evidence shows profits will be gained by expanding business to other field. It is possible that BBC might lack previous experience and exposure in the production of other food. And it’s also possible that in other fields many competitors have already been located.
171.'Bargain Brand' breakfast 论断：BB应该尽快拓展业务并开始推出其他低价食品。因为我们卖粮食的成功。一年前我们的第一个产品BB早餐粮食因为很低的价格很快把顾客从其他畅销粮食公司拉了过来。尽管那些公司一直用压低价格与我们竞争，而且还有几家计划推出他们自己的品牌，但我们都还不曾需要提高我们的价格来继续赢利。
·前提是否成功---是否在赢利。没有资料证明在赢利。低价低利润率，而且知名品牌都降价了，如果你提价就会失去顾客。用一个需要证明的，而且可能不存在的原因，解释一个现象。而且这个现象的真实情况有可能会削弱结论。
·论据：顾客选择BB，最主要的可能不是因为低价，而是其他因素。不然别人降价，顾客早回去了。
·结论：一个产品因为低价成功，不保证其他市场低价也能成功。尽快拓展业务，还要考虑大的经济环境，和顾客的状况。
230.The following appeared in a recommendation from the planning department of the city of Transopolis.
"Ten years ago, as part of a comprehensive urban renewal program, the city of Transopolis adapted for industrial use a large area of severely substandard housing near the freeway. Subsequently, several factories were constructed there, crime rates in the area declined, and property tax revenues for the entire city increased. To further revitalize the city, we should now take similar action in a declining residential area on the opposite side of the city. Since some houses and apartments in existing nearby neighborhoods are currently unoccupied, alternate housing for those displaced by this action will be readily available."
十年前，作为一项综合城市改造项目的一部分，Transopolis市为了工业用途在快速路旁边改造了一大片严重低于标准的住房。随后，那里建立了若干工厂，犯罪率降低了，全市资产税收入增加。为进一步使城市重新繁荣，我们应该在城市另一侧的正在衰落的居住区采取类似的行动。由于现有邻近社区的一些住宅和公寓无人居住，这一行动产生的搬迁户的住所将有所保障。
1. No evidence shows the adaption of the substandard housing is attributable for the revitalization near the freeway. It is possible that other factors such as enhancing management and supervision, stringent laws and regulations, increasing tax rate contribute to the success.
2. Unfair assumption that the declining residential area is identical to that successfully adapted area. It’s possible that the declining residential area is mainly occupied by many hospitals and sanatoriums, if several factories are constructed there, a serious reverse consequences will be conducted. It is also possible that the land space in the residential declining area is already fully occupied by other competitive factories. Or necessary facilities in that area are not available for industrial use.
3. There is no guarantee that displaced residents will be protected from the action. The neighborhoods might not be suitable for people to live due to poor air condition, severe pollution, bad weather and rough road condition.
4. A ten-years-ago action might not still be effective in nowadays.
5. Revitalizing the city is dependent on not only the industrial development but also some other major factors. Other measures might be more effective and costless to boost the development of the area (improvement to the current residential area, enhancing management and regulations, adapt for business use, attracting investment, building new residential houses, lower the property taxes).
230.substandard housing near the freeway 论断：为一进步搞活城市，我们应该在城市的居民正在减少的城市另一边采用同样的行动（把地用作工业）。因为那儿的一些房子和公寓目前没人住，这个计划需要的备用房已经有了。十年前，做为整个郊区搞活计划的一部分，T城把高速边的一些低质量房用于工业。结果那么建了很多工厂，犯罪率也下降了，整个城市的财税收入也上升了。
·前提，这边有地用于工业。没有证据证明这边有足够的空间发展工业，或者说发展工业适合该地区。如果说该地区附近有很多疗养院，sanitorium or park, 建工业就会影响该地区的环境。
·论据，论者引用十年前另一边的经验，但首先时间相隔十年，经验是否能被借鉴值得怀疑，其次另一边可能有大量质量不好的房屋，这些房屋迟早要被推倒用做别的用途，但是论者没有说这边的房屋是有是也主要是质量不好的房屋。如果不是，这是种浪费，且会引起房主不满。第三，犯罪率的下降和财税的上升与工业发展之间的因果关系不被保证。有可能该地区在这十年间制定了严格的法律，加派了更多的警察，并且还在发且比如商业、旅游业等项目。其实新建的工厂一般来说税交的都不多。
·结论：就算发展工业好，条件是否具备也难说。闲置的空房不等于没人要，房主不一定会答应让别人来住。
85.The following appeared in the letter to an editor of a Myrian newspaper.
"Under Governor Winslow's leadership over the past four years, Myria has enjoyed unprecedented prosperity. Average wage increases this year are higher than they have been at any time since the 1970's, the number of people who report being unemployed has decreased by 10 percent, and construction of new homes is up by one third. In contrast, over the past four years Governor Winslow's opponent, Mr. Homer, has been mayor of a city in which only a small number of new businesses have opened. If Myrians want another four years like the past four years, they should reelect Governor Winslow."
过去四年中在州长Winslow的领导下，Myria经历了空前的繁荣。今年平均工资提高，而且比1970年以来的任何一年都要高，报告失业的人数下降了10％，新住房的建造增加了三分之一。相比之下，过去四年中Winslow的竞争对手Homer出任了另一个市的市长，那个城市只开展了很少的新型商业。如果Myria的居民希望未来四年和过去四年一样，他们就应该再次选举Winslow。
1. The unprecedented prosperity might result from the development of macro economy of the whole country or by the cumulative efforts of the former governors.
2. It is very possible that even though the average wages of people increase, there remains a serious monetary inflation which offsets the prosperity.
3. Comparison cannot be made between the two cities as they might have totally different social and economic foundation. The city where Mr. Homer has been the mayor might have developed a mature business environment and gained great benefits from their old businesses and thus has no need to open new ones. And no other evidence shows Homer has not done a good job.
4. Though the number of people who reported being unemployed has decreased by 10%, it is entirely possible that those who didn’t report also suffer from unemployment or those who report didn’t tell the truth at all. Or even if it’s only 10 percent of the people, the number might still be large.
5. There is no guarantee that Winslow will continue to bring posterity in the future. The development of a society needs to keep pace with the times and optimize old policies in time. Winslow might not have the innovation to lead the prosperity of Myrians to a higher level.
6. Other opponents should also be taken into consideration.
Myrian,Governor Winslow's leadership 论断：M市应该再选W。因为在W领导的过去四年里，M市经历了前所未有的繁荣：平均工资的上涨比70年代以来任何时候都高，报告失业的人数也降了10%，新建房屋上升了三分之一。与此相反，过去四年里W的竞争对手H一直是一个只有很少新业务开章的城市市长。
·前提不一定成立，即W比H更能让M市繁荣。但论者没有提供任何有关两人对于M未来发展的设计，以证明两人在对M市的领导会有差别。
·论据没有说明力。论者用两位竞争者在不同城市的经历作比较，不能得出对二人能力的正确判断。首先论者引用M市在W领导下的成绩作为例证，但是没有证据证明M市的发展是由于W的领导，我们不排除M市以四年前的基础就很好，工资一直在上升，或是W当市长前采取的一些措施在慢慢产生效果。其次过去的成绩也不必然保证今后会出现同样的状况，因为时期不同，M市面临的问题也会不同。第三论者说H当市长的城市只有少数新业务开章，但是这并不能就证明H的能力不行。因为可能该城的基础比较差，H的领导使其有了很大改观。
·论断没有根据。即使W比H强，但还有其他候选人吧。
结论：论者在为W做广告时，却没有提供居民关心的，如未来的发展等问题。同时没有把两位候选人进行公平的比较，是不能达到效果的。
100.The following appeared in a memo from the chief operating officer of the Presto Manufacturing Company.
"Since orders for our major product increased by over 200 percent last quarter, we should promptly expand production by building a new manufacturing plant in Summit City. Summit City is the ideal location for the new plant because it has low property taxes, extensive blocks of land available for immediate purchase, and a large number of residents who are not currently employed."
由于上个季度我们主要产品的定单增加了200％多，我们应该马上通过在Summit City建造一座新工厂来扩大生产。Summit City是新工厂的理想位置，因为那里的地产税比较低，具有可以立即购买的大片土地，以及大量尚未就业的居民。
1. The increase might be an aberration, and whether the product will continue to be welcomed should be clearly analyzed. And sales of minor products might decrease and readjustment to the proportion of production of the major and minor products should be taken into consideration.
2. There is no evidence indicating the company lacks working space and needs to build a new plant. Besides the costs of building a new plant might be much higher than the profits it brings. Since the author cannot assure that the orders will not decline in the future, it is very possible that even though the current working space is not enough for producing large orders, when the orders decline the newly built plant will be of no use.
3. The currently not employed residents might not be qualified for the new plant’s work for the reason that they might not master the skill or they are not interested in the job. And the low property taxes does not equal to the low price of land.
4. The author didn’t mention the situation in Summit City, it is possible that there are already many successful competitors running the similar business which might have occupied all the perspective aspects that P perceives. Or the land is not suitable to build a factory.
5. Other factors should also be taken into account like the convenience for transportation and the access to the sources of raw materials.
Presto Manufacturing Company increased by over 200 percent 论断：我们应该立即通过在S城新建一个制造厂来扩大生产，因为上个季度对于我们主要产品的订单上升了200%。S城是建新厂的理想地点，它有低的税，大量的闲置土地，以及目前正失业的居民。
·论断忽略一个前提，即是否需要新建厂房。论者没有提供任何资料证明目前的设施不足以完成现有的订单。而且今后订单是否会继续上升或是保持与上个季度一样的水平不被保证，如果需求随继下滑，新建的厂房就会被闲置。
·S是否是理想的地点有疑问，首先低税和闲置的土地只能说明当地可能发展较慢，其次闲置的土地是否适合建厂还有等进一步考证。第三较大的失业的人群是否有足够的素质完成我们的工作，第四该地的其它情况，比如交通、能源供应等问题如何。
结论：论者应该进一步了解我们目前的生产水平是否不能完成工作，并进一步了解S地区的情况再做出决定。
178.The following appeared in the annual report from the president of the National Brush Company.
"In order to save money, we at the National Brush Company have decided to pay our employees for each brush they produce instead of for the time they spend producing brushes. We believe that this policy will lead to the production of more and better brushes, will allow us to reduce our staff size, and will enable the company factories to operate for fewer hours-resulting in savings on electricity and security costs. These changes will ensure that the best workers keep their jobs and that the company will earn a profit in the coming year."
为节省开支，我们National Brush公司决定不再按员工生产刷子的工时支付工资，而是按他们生产刷子的数量来支付。我们相信这一政策将会导致刷子产量和质量的提高，将会减少我们的员工数量，并将会使工厂能够减少运营时间从而导致电费和保安费用的节省。这些改革将保证那些最好的工人留在这里工作，公司将会在来年有更多的盈利。
1. No evidence show both the quantity and quality will enhance. It is possible that the employees now are working at their highest efficiency and thus there might be little difference in the ways of paying.
2. The quickest not the best workers might stay as the policy is based on quantity not quality. And even if admitting they are the best, it is possible that those workers might leave for other factories which offer higher salaries for their high efficiency. And the company therefore might have to increase their costs of salaries to keep them in.
3. Increasing production does not equal to increasing sales, it is possible that the brushes do not sell well and become shift stocks finally.
4. The side-effect of the policy: The policy might lead to poor quality of brushes. As employees might care more about the quantity rather than the quality of the products, which will finally impact the reputation of the company and result in decreasing sales and profits.
178.National Brush Company 论断：我们应该由按员工产B个数算钱，而不再按时间算钱。因为我们相信这个政策会带来更多更好的产生，可以让我缩减员工人数，而且生产时间减少可以节省电和安全的开销。这些变化将保证最好的工作留住工作，公司也将在明年获得赢利。
·被忽略的，这种方式是否适合：按时间算是一个方便的方法，按个数算得有很多人去计每个工人的工作量。另外制作不可能由一个工人全部完成，stream lining production，这种方式都有问题。
·更多更好的生产：更多有可能，但质量肯定下降。工人求数量多嘛。质量不好，就有可能遭来投诉，销量下降，利润就没了。get no profit but deficit.
·省电省安全：工人求速度，可能会导致更多的安全事故。
·工人，不是最好的，是最快的，还有可能是最会投机取巧的。
216.The following appeared in a magazine article about planning for retirement.
"Because of its spectacular natural beauty and consistent climate, Clearview should be a top choice for anyone seeking a place to retire. As a bonus, housing costs in Clearview have fallen significantly during the past year, and real estate taxes remain lower than those in neighboring towns. Nevertheless, Clearview's mayor promises many new programs to improve schools, streets, and public services. Retirees in Clearview can also expect excellent health care as they grow older, since the number of physicians in the area is far greater than the national average."
由于Clearview的天然景色和温和气候，它应该成为那些为退休后寻找生活地的人的首选。其中一项好处是，Clearview的房价在去年显著下降，房地产税一直比邻近城市低。而且，Clearview的市长承诺了很多新方案来改学校、街道和公共服务。Clearview的退休人员也可以在老年时享受到出色的医疗服务，因为该地区的医生数量高于全国平均水平。
1. It is possible that the climate and natural beauty are not among the top attractiveness of many retirees as they may care more about healthy food, entertainment, public service , convenient transportation and being around with relatives in the city of their retirement.
2. Despite the decline, C’s housing costs might be high compared to those in other cities and a large number of retirees cannot afford. Low property taxes might be attractive, but it is possible that other places are also suitable for retirees and several neighboring towns have even lower property taxes. And for some wealthier retirees housing costs and property taxes are not likely to be factors in choosing a place to retire.
3. Low housing prices might result from poor quality of construction, poor housing service and bad transportation. And it is also possible that low housing price is because of the depressed economy, therefore many local people of C might remain unemployed which will possibly cause some crimes threatening the stability of Clearview.
4. Whether the mayor can keep his promises is highly questionable as all these improvements need very large funds while the area reduces its property taxes.
5. Although the number of physicians in C is relatively high, the per capita number(人均) might be relatively low or lower than that of other attractive retirement towns rather than the national average. No evidence shows these physicians are of high quality. It is possible that the medical fees and the charge of health care are the highest nationwide which only a few rich retirees can afford.
216.planning for retirement 论断：C是人们找地方退休的首选。因为当地风光优美，气候常年稳定，而作为退休金，住房在当地的费用去年也有很显著的下降，房地产税收一直比隔壁几个镇低。不过，市长许诺了新的项目改善学校、街道和公共服务。退休在C还有好的健康服务，因为这儿医生的数目比全国平均水平高。
·如果C真的很适合退休居住，当地一定吸引了不少老人，尤其是退休后搬来居的。听听他们的意见是有说服力的，另外老年人需要同相年纪的伴，这是非常重要的。没有这方面的信息，论断的说服力非常弱。
·住房的费用在去年下降，并不证明它比其它地方低，而且今后是否还会上升也不被保证。另外住房费用低以及房产税比隔壁几个镇低，让人不得不担心一个问题，就是当地经济可能比较弱。虽然经济发达并不是老年人最关心的，但与此相关的社会问题会不会存在，比如高失业律带来的社会不稳定等等，另外还有一些服务会不会缺。
·许诺的项目并不真正存在，要多少年也说不定。而且学校和街道问题可能老年人并不关心。
·医生的水平比数目更重要。
222.The following article appeared in a recent issue of a college newspaper.
"Among all students who graduated from Hooper University over the past five years, more physical science majors than social science majors found permanent jobs within a year of graduation. In a survey of recent Hooper University graduates, most physical science majors said they believed that the prestige of Hooper University's physical science programs helped them significantly in finding a job. In contrast, social science majors who found permanent employment attributed their success to their own personal initiative. Therefore, to ensure that social science majors find permanent jobs, Hooper University should offer additional social science courses and hire several new faculty members who already have national reputations in the social sciences."
在过去五年从Hooper大学毕业的所有学生中，物理学专业的毕业生在毕业一年内找到固定工作的人数要多于社会科学的毕业生。在一次对于Hooper大学最近的毕业生的调查中，多数物理学专业的学生说他们认为Hooper大学物理学科的声望在他们找工作的过程中起到了极大的作用。相比之下，找到固定工作的社会科学毕业生则把他们的成归因于他们自己的能动性。因此，为保证社科毕业生找到固定工作，Hooper大学应该提供更多的社科课程并雇佣一些已经在社科领域获得全国声誉的新教员。
1. It is possible that the number of students major in physical science exceeds that of students major in social science. And the portion that students who found permanent jobs account for is a much more important statistic to reflect the employment condition of the major.
2. It is possible that graduates of social science majors are less likely than those of physical science to be interested in immediate employment after graduation instead to pursue graduate-level study(继续研究学习).
3. The survey is problematic: insufficient number of respondents. And the survey reflects the graduates’ subjective beliefs, which might not be in accord with the realities. It is also possible that the jobs of those graduates major in physical science are not as satisfactory as the one that the graduates of social science have in terms of salary, bonus and possibility of promotion.
4. It is not appropriate to make comparison between physical science and social science. The two courses are very different in nature. Physical science is more practical and more needed compared to social science in reality so students major in physical science are easier to be employed.
5. The proposed course of action might not be the only or the best means of achieving the desired result. It is possible that some vocational programs and trainings, job seminars will be helpful in improving the immediate employment. And the capacity of qualified staff might already be saturated. It’s also possible that the costs to employ national reputed teachers are very high that have exceeded the school’s payment ability.
222.more physical science majors 论断：为保证社会学系的学生找到身生职业，H大学应该再多提供社会科学课程并雇用几位新的已在全国该领域有名望的教师。因为过去五年里H大学有更多的理科学生比社会学系的学生在毕业后一年里找到了终身职业。在一份对毕业生的最近调查中，大多数理科生都说他们相信H在理科课程的名望在很大程度上帮助了他们找工作。而相反，社会学系找到终身职业的人把这种成功归结于他们自己的个人创新。
·前提，H校目前的社会学系不好。没有直接证据。
·前提，H校社会学系的学生不好找工作。论据有问题。首先毕业后一年里是否找到终生工作不说明问题，学生刚刚迈入，可能有学生不愿接受。其次，找工作与职业市场有关系，可能理科学生本来就比社会学的工作多。第三，学生把找工作上的成功归因，可能理科学生比较谦虚，而社会学的学生比较实诚。
·结论：多提供课程和找新的有名望的老师并不能保证更多的社会学系的学生能找到终身职业。
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