经济学英文翻译当前中国经济

经济学英文翻译当前中国经济 当前中国经济 摘 要 近期中国社会经济生活中,无论是商品价格,还是股市价格,抑或楼市价格,均发生不容乐观的变化。在这其中,有多种因素在起作用。 关键词: 通货膨胀;股价;房价;消费价格指数 一、当前中国经济发展概况 中国经济的发展迅速且平稳,在2006 和2007 年仍然一如既往地保持了较快且平稳的发展速度,宏观经济发展情况良好,加之近几年股票市场和房地产市场的发展态势良好,人们的投资热情越来越高,股价和房价涨幅大增。与此同时,其它商品的价格也在提高,尤其是2007 年下半年以来,食品类价格更是飞涨,人们的生存压力加大,很多人士撰文评论中国的“通货膨胀”现象,这也是政府、经济学界和社会各层所共同关心和关注的问题。针对上述股市和楼市价格上涨以及通货膨胀等问题,我们将逐一进行分析。 二、当前中国经济发展中的主要问题及其原因分析 (一) 股票市场的发展变化及其原因 从2005 年股权分置改革以来,我国的股票市场形势逐渐好转,以上证指数为例,2005 年在1100 点左右,而到2007 年,最高时竟达到6100 点,短短两年时间,增长5000点。但从2007 年11 月份开始,股市开始出现下跌情况,至2008 年9 月已跌至2000 点左右。人们也由2007 年对股票市场的趋之若鹜,变为现今的想方设法如何从股市抽身。 本轮股市上涨的背景是股权分置改革与人民币升值。股权分置改革实现了股票的全流通,对整个中国经济来说,此次改革无疑是迈向市场化的里程碑,2005 年7月21 日,人民币升值2 % ,由原来的1 美元兑换8. 27 元人民币调整到1 美元兑换8. 11 元人民币。此次人民币升值时机合适,不仅改变了当时的市场预期,同时也配合和促进了股改,两者一起推进了中国股市的市场化进程。然而短期内,当越来越多的资金大量涌入股市,而股票本身的价值并未得到大幅增加时,就会产生股市泡沫,而泡沫必然要破裂。另外,国家的紧缩政策也是重要原因。从2007 年3 月至8 月,央行进行了四次加息,使得金融机构一年期存款贷款基准利率分别由2. 52 % 、6. 12 %提高到3. 60 % 、7. 02 %。与以往“越紧缩,越上涨”的现象不同,此次紧缩政策对市场资金面的影响产生了方向性的变化。以上可称之为股市下跌的内因。另外,国际大环境的变化也对我国股市产生了不可忽视的影响,2007年底的美国次贷危机,也通过一系列传导机制影响到我国的股市,这可以看作是我国股市下跌的外部原因。 (二) 房地产市场的发展变化及其原因 房地产业作为与百姓生计密切相关的一个行业,房价的上涨不仅仅是一种经济现象。衡量房价上涨的指标很多,作为促进GDP 增长的一个因素,要从人们的生存负担角度来考虑。我们只从房价收入比这一指标入手,在2003 年以后,房价增长速度加快,房价收入比呈现上升趋势,特别是一些大城市房价飞涨。 有学者通过研究发现,中国不同收入群体的房价收入比差距很大。以2005 年为例,中国最低收入户房价收入比是22. 69 ,是同组国际平均水平的236 %;中等收入户房价收入比是7. 75 ,是同组国际平均水平的86 %;最高收入户房价收入比是 2. 45 ,只有同组国际平均水平的44 %。2005年,中国最高和最低收入户房价收入比差距是20. 24 ,而国际最高与最低差距是7. 8 ,只有中国的39 %。虽然平均水平看来我国的房价收入比还不是太高,但由房价收入比差距显示的居民收入差距大的问题已经揭露出来,中低收入家庭的基本居住权的保障已成问题,而在市场经济 条件下,中低收入家庭不太可能通过提高收入来显著提高购房能力,这就需要政府住房政策发挥作用。 (三) 物价上涨情况及其原因 我国居民消费价格水平的上涨情况,特别是食品类,更是出现高达17. 6 %的涨幅。据中国国家统计局透露,2007 年CPI 同比增幅由2006 年底的1. 5 %飙升至 4. 8 % ,创自1996 年CPI 涨幅8. 3 %以来的最高水平。这也打破了多年以来中国的CPI 一直保持在3 %以内的局面,一定程度上看来,这一涨幅与中国的GDP 发展速度相比并不一致。因此,很多人认为中国“通货膨胀”来了。其实,我国自2006 年底就出现了食品类商品不约而同的涨价,虽然政府很快出面平抑了粮油价格,但有关专家认为,粮油价格上涨的局面将会延续到2007 年,事实的发展果不其然,而且速度之快规模之大,远远超出人们的预料。此次“通货膨胀”的原因是多方面的。 首先从宏观经济发展来看。我国2007 年GDP 增长速度高达11. 44 %。 其次,短期内粮油肉价的增长态势惊人,在于消费品市场供应不足,导致物价上涨。众所周知,这一轮物价上涨的起源在于因市场供应不足导致猪肉价格短期内的急速上升。接下来的后果就是,整个价格链上的其他商品也接二连三跟着涨价,从而出现了全面涨价的情形。从全球范围看,各国都面临着通货膨胀的威胁,这说明物价上涨是一个国际性的问题,而由于各国之间的经济影响越来越密切,这也在一定程度上推动了我国的通货膨胀压力。 再次,股市和楼市两个资产市场价格的暴涨和银行信贷快速扩张。我国这一轮的经济增长,最大的推动力就是两大资产价格暴涨。房地产市场快速发展,房价飙升,银行信贷快速扩张;国内股市的高涨,房地产企业逐渐走出对银行融资的依赖,转向从证券市场融资,这无疑又推高了股市的价格。在这一过程中,银行信贷的快速扩张是导致通货膨胀的根本原因。一般来说,随着GDP 的增长,货币的发行量也 会相应增长,两者的增长率应当一致。我国的货币发行量相对于GDP 的增长确 实太快,导致流动性过剩,社会经济产生通货膨胀也是必然现象 。货币流动性过剩,又进一步加大了两大资产价格,这样以房地产和股市为中心形成了一个由资产 文 价格暴涨,经过信贷扩张,导致流动性过大,从而产生通货膨胀的恶性循环。[论网 LunWenNet.Com] 三、相关建议及措施 笔者认为,此次“通货膨胀”并非是全面的通货膨胀,但是,价格水平增长居前两位的食品类和居住类却正是与百姓生活关系最密切的行业,必需品的需求弹性非常小,若价格持续上涨,中低收入者的生活压力将更加巨大。单从这两类行业的价格增长水平来看,通货膨胀的压力已经非常之大。对于此次“通货膨胀”我们应该采取如下措施: 第一,针对此次“通货膨胀”的起源是粮油肉类价格在短期内的急速增长,政府应该采取一些鼓励农民种植农作物和畜牧的措施。我国农村人口中的大量年轻劳动力涌向城市,为我国的城市化建设做出了不可磨灭的贡献,但却使得农业生产提高缓慢。我国一直是农业大国,而现在农业大国却不能保证本国的粮食供应,这和农村劳动力不足有很大关系。笔者认为国家应该采取一些措施吸引并留住年轻人才留在农村,同时加大对农村的资金、设备和技术的投入,提高生产效率,为市场提供更多所需的粮食,这才是解决食品类物价飞涨的根本所在。 第二,如前所述“, 通货膨胀”归根究底是一种货币现象,要解决这一现象需要从货币问题出发。政府已经多次提高存款准备金率,另外可以配合使用公开市场业务,发行国家债券,吸纳市场上过多的资金。而且相比于其他两种货币政策,公开市场业务最大的优点是操作灵活方便,对经济的震动小。另外一方面,控制货币发行量,从而控制经济过热的现象。 第三,此番“通货膨胀”的一个重要推动因素是两大资产价格的暴涨,因此,要舒缓此次通胀压力,必须对两大资产市场进行调控。比如央行可以要求商业银行 缩减对房地产和股票市场的信贷,减少流入两大资产市场的资金量;对耐用消费品信贷消费作出限制,防止房地产投机;提高证券保证金率,遏制股票市场的过度投机。另外,严格监管政府对土地的出让工作,对于以出让土地为手段谋取私利的政府部门,国家要严厉制止。 China’s Current Economic Abstract China’s recent social and economic life, whether it is commodity prices or stock prices or market prices are not to be optimistic about the changes occurred. In this one, there are many factors at work. Based on the current China-depth analysis of the economic situation, its main analysis of the impact of factors one by one, trying to start some of the reasons for China’s economic development in today’s useful suggestions. Key words: inflation; stock; prices; the consumer price index First, China’s current economic development China’s economy has developed rapidly and steadily, in 2006 and 2007, as always, still maintained a relatively rapid and steady pace of development, macroeconomic development in good condition, in addition to the stock market and real estate in recent years the development of the market in good shape, people’s investment growing enthusiasm, or increase in stock prices and house prices. At the same time, the prices of other commodities also increased, especially since the second half of 2007, food prices are soaring, pressure to increase the survival of people, many people comment on the author of China’s "inflation" phenomenon, which is the Government, all levels of academic and social economy of common interest and concern. In response to these prices the stock and property markets, as well as issues such as inflation, we will analyze one by one. Second, China’s current economic development of the analysis of the main problems and their causes (A) the development and changes in the stock market and the reasons In 2005 from the split share structure reform, China’s stock market situation gradually improves, the above index cards as an example, in 2005 at about 1100, and 2007, the highest reached 6100 points, just two years, an increase of 5000 point. However, from the beginning of November 2007, the stock market began to fall to September 2008 has dropped to around 2000. It is also from the 2007 stock market in droves, trying to present how to extricate yourself from the stock market. The current round of stock market against the backdrop of rising share reform and the appreciation of the renminbi. Share reform to achieve the full circulation of the shares of the entire Chinese economy, this reform is a milestone in moving towards market-oriented, July 21, 2005, 2 percent revaluation of the RMB, 1 U.S. dollar from the original 8. 27 yuan to adjust to 1 U.S. dollar 8.11 yuan. The appropriate timing of the appreciation of the renminbi, not only changed the market expectations at the time, but also with the change and the promotion of the shares, which together with China to promote the process of the stock market. However the short term, when more and more capital into the local stock market, and the value of the stock itself has not been a substantial increase, it will have a stock market bubble, while the bubble is bound to be broken. In addition, the country’s tightening of the important factors. From March 2007 to August, the central bank to raise interest rates four times, making one-year deposit-taking financial institutions to benchmark lending rate by 2.52%, 6.12% to 3.60%, 7.02%. With the past "more tightening, the more up" phenomenon is different from the tightening of funds on the market side of the impact of changes in direction. Referred to as the stock market fell more than the internal. In addition, changes in the international environment has also resulted in China’s stock market can not be ignored the influence of the United States at the end of 2007 credit crisis, but also affect the transmission mechanism through a series of China’s stock market, which can be seen as a stock market decline in China’s external reasons. (B) the development and changes in the real estate market and the reasons As the real estate industry and the livelihood of the people closely related to an industry, housing prices rose more than just an economic phenomenon. Measure of housing prices in many of the indicators, GDP growth as a factor in the survival of the burden from the people’s point of view. We can only income from the target price to start, in 2003, the house price growth has accelerated, prices showed an upward trend in income, especially soaring housing prices in some big cities. Some scholars through the study found that different income groups in China income gap between the great prices. In 2005, for example, China’s lowest-income households in housing revenue is 22.69, the same group of the international average of 236%; middle-income housing income households is 7.75, the same group of the international average of 86% ; the highest income households in housing-income ratio is 2.45, only with the group of the international average of 44%. In 2005, China’s highest and lowest income households earned less than the gap between house prices is 20.24, while the gap between the highest and lowest international is 7.8, only 39 percent of China. Although it seems the average income of China’s housing prices is not too high, but by the price gap between income of the residents showed a big income gap has been exposed, low-income families in the protection of the basic right of residence has become a problem, and under market economy conditions, in low-income families by raising the income is not likely to significantly improve housing affordability, which requires the Government to play a role in housing policy. (C) the situation and the reasons for price increases China’s consumer price level rose, in particular food, it is a whopping 17.6 percent increase. According to China’s National Bureau of Statistics revealed that in 2007 year-on-year increase in CPI by the end of 2006 of 1.5% rising to 4.8 percent, a record since 1996, CPI rose 8.3% the highest level since. It also broke China’s CPI over the years has remained at less than 3 percent of the situation, it seems to some extent, this increase with China compared to GDP growth rate is not consistent. Therefore, many people think that China’s "inflation" to the. In fact, our country since the end of 2006 there have been food price increases of goods the same, although the Government will soon come forward to keep the grain and oil prices, but experts believe that the situation of grain and oil prices will continue into 2007, the fact that the development of Indeed, and the speed scale, far beyond expectations. The "inflation" There are many reasons. First of all, from the macro-economic development. China’s 2007 GDP growth rate as high as 11.44%. Secondly, the short-term price of grain, oil, meat astonishing growth is the shortage of consumer goods market, resulting in rising prices. As we all know, this round of price increases is the origin of short supply due to market pork prices led to the sharp rise in the short term. The next consequence is that the entire price chain is also one after another along with other commodities prices, which appeared in the case of the full price. Globally, countries are faced with the threat of inflation, indicating inflation was a global issue, and as a result of the economic impact between countries are getting closer and closer, which to some extent also to promote China’s inflation pressure. Third, both the stock and property market prices in asset markets and the rapid expansion of bank credit. China’s economic growth in this round, the biggest driving force in the two asset prices is soaring. The rapid development of the real estate market, housing prices soared, the rapid expansion of bank credit; the rising stock market, real estate enterprises gradually out of dependence on bank financing, financing shifted from the stock market, which also pushed up the price of the stock market. In this process, the rapid expansion of bank credit is the root cause of inflation. Generally speaking, with the GDP growth, currency will be a corresponding increase in circulation, both the growth rate should be consistent. The volume of China’s currency vis-à-vis GDP growth is indeed too fast, resulting in excess liquidity, inflation is bound to generate social and economic phenomenon. Excess liquidity and further strengthen the two asset prices, so that in real estate and stock market as the center to form a surge in asset prices, the credit expansion has led to excess liquidity, thereby creating a vicious cycle of inflation. [Papers Network LunWenNet.Com] Third, the relevant recommendations and measures The author believes that the "inflation" inflation is not comprehensive, but the price level of growth in two of the food home and it is exactly the type of residence life and the people most closely related to the industry, the demand elasticity of necessity very small, If prices continue to rise in low-income people will be even greater pressure. From these two sectors in terms of the level of price increases, inflationary pressure is already very large. For the "inflation" we should take the following measures: First, for the "inflation" is the origin of grain and oil prices in the meat of the rapid growth in the short term, the Government should take some encourage farmers to plant crops and animal husbandry measures. China’s rural population of a large number of young workers into the city, for the construction of China’s cities have made indelible contributions, but slow to increase agricultural production. China has always been a big agricultural country, and now a major agricultural country but can not guarantee that the country’s food supply, which is a great shortage of rural labor relations. I believe that the state should take some measures to attract and retain young talent to stay in rural areas, rural areas at the same time increase the funds, equipment and technology investment, increase productivity and provide the market with more requirements for the food, the only way to solve the food root category of the soaring prices. Second, as mentioned earlier, "inflation" It all boils down to is a monetary phenomenon, it is necessary to address this phenomenon starting from the monetary issues. The Government has raised the deposit reserve ratio, the other will be in line with the use of open market operations, the State issued bonds to absorb excess funds market. And compared to the other two monetary policy, open market operations to operate the biggest advantage is flexibility, a small shock to the economy. The other hand, control the volume of currency in order to control the phenomenon of economic overheating. Third, the current "inflation" to promote an important factor is the skyrocketing price of two assets, therefore, to alleviate the inflationary pressures, we must regulate the two asset markets. For example, commercial banks may require the central bank to reduce real estate and stock markets, credit, reducing the inflow of the two funds in asset markets; on consumer credit consumer durables should be restricted, to prevent real estate speculation; improve securities margin rate, curb excessive speculation in the stock market . In addition, the government strictly regulates the sale of land to work in order to sell their land for personal gains as a means of government departments, the state put an end to severe.