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房地产可行性研究外文文献及翻译房地产可行性研究外文文献及翻译 The Analysis of the Issue Related to the Feasibility of Study the Real Estate Project on the Basis of the Implicit Cost Abstract: It is known that the feasibility study of real estate project plays an important role in real estate developme...

房地产可行性研究外文文献及翻译
房地产可行性研究外文文献及翻译 The Analysis of the Issue Related to the Feasibility of Study the Real Estate Project on the Basis of the Implicit Cost Abstract: It is known that the feasibility study of real estate project plays an important role in real estate development. Nevertheless, there still remains many problems in the feasibility study. In this paper, the concept of implicit cost will be introduced, which will be used to analyse these problems.Meanwhile, some useful strategies will be raised for these problems,which intends to further improve the feasibility study of the real estate projects. Keywords: real estate project; feasibility study; implicit cost; problems 1. Introduction The feasibility study is the decision science has been used in project area, and the basic target is on the basis of the comprehensive investigating and researching to identify a construction object whether have the characteristics of progressive, reality and reliable in the whole prosess from previously project construction to line operation. We also need to know those whether can pay off from the finance and the credibility in the economy to give a big help for the investating decisions. It is real role that a framework to investing project , and is the key factors that can decide the project can be invested or not to give some supports on the project decisions. The real estate is characteristic of accounting for huge financing, a long period relative to the investing and easily influenced by the instable factors. Therefore, the the feasibility study is very important for the real estate. However, currently we are more and more focusing on the explicit cost in the feasibility study and ignoring the intangible cost. The intangible cost is , as opposed to explicit cost and hided among the total cost of enterprise, caused by the decision maker characterized by lower diathesis, wrong concept, and the deficiency of informations, coupled with the non-market factors to lead to the total cost increaseing directly or indirectly . The amount of economic benefits of the project largely depend on getting full knowledge of the intangible cost in the real estate. 2. The Existence of the Questions Lied in the Feasibility Study on the Basis of the Intangible Cost Recently, the real estate have got a big improvement in the feasibility study. As the main contents and methods, it have been normed and stabilized gradually to use in the project decisions. But that is fact that the feasibility study cannot play the role above mentioned in the real case. The worst case is that there is no the feasibility study before starting the work. And another events is that the feasibility study had been done, but the result was not fit to the requestions. The main problems are following: 2.1. The Investor with Low Diathesis Did Not Pay More Attentions on it Until now, a number of the investors did not get a clear clue and realize the importantance related to the feasibility study. They had made a decision whether building the real estate relied on their own wish, and reckoned the feasibility study was just a “payable paper” to submit to lending institution, investor and government. There is no meaning in the feasibility study because of carrying on is not thorough, focusing on the format. Therefore, the “feasibility study” is the aim that how to get a permission from the related department and a loan from the bank, so the data cannot be used to reflect the real conditions. The economic benefits of the whole real estate project have decreased, even failed that was mainly ascribed to the invetor’s attitude, ignoring the importance of feasibility study. Those are called the intangible cost. The other factors is linked closely with calibre that a excellent decision maker should be characterized by determination, confidence, far-sighted.ect. When a favorite investing project lie in front of a investor, he must be confidence and determination to make a decision as soon as possible, or the problems relative to the economic benefits′ lost would be happened to create the intangible cost. Moreover, the investor should have the characters of far-sighted to consider the investing process, and not care the “gain and loss” in a small events to make a wrong decision. It is obviously that the high-calibre is an very important factor to the investor to avoid the intangible cost. 2.2. The Feasibility Study Related to theConstruction Project is Mainly Completed by the Consultant Agency and Design Dthe Deviser Has Low-Calibre Department of construction entrusted by investor. It is possible that the accuracy largely depend on those institutions′ level controlled by the deviser’s calibre. Unfortunately, a huge number of devisers are lacking of the attitude on seek truth from facts. They have partially used the data to optimistically evaluate the market price movement. They also did not exploit the market survey in details to predict the market prospect; at the same time, they did not care about some faults, however, more lights shed in exaggerateing the advantages of technology and product that reducing the success rate of investing. On the basis of the devisers having low-calibre, the feasibility study cannot be completed by course of correct way and canonical process that the decision maker got a wrong judgement to result in losting the economic benefits, even the whole project’s depleting. 2.3. The Analysis and Forecasting of the Market is not Enough The earning power of investing project is not only depending on the all kinds of available resources, but also relying on the current and potential requests needed by society. Currently, there are no more attenions concentrated on the market survey and forecasting in the feasibility study. A large numbers of data came from the related researchers’ experience and social relations. Even though they did a survey and forecasted the market trend, the results are more qualitative analysis than quantitative. The data measured by above process cannot really reflect the market condition and prospect. It is seemly like having good benefits, because of the fault existed in the analysis and forecasting of market to lead to the investing project has to face the condition “having a price but no sales”. Those can be avoided according to the reseacher’s endeavor. 2.4. There is No Comparative among Every Project A larger numbers of reseachers pay more attentions on the single project than the comprehensive in the feasibility study. In some cases, they also analyse some projects at the same time but a particular one will be analysed more deeper than another analysed superficially. The decision maker have to accept the project choosed by reseachers on their wishes, and then the comprehensive researching changed into single will lose the meaning in the feasibility study. Because lack of the comparative project, leading to the economic benefits related to the finance will be fixed to lose the chance of getting more benefits from the market to create more intangible cost. 2.5. Ignoring the Value of the Environmental Assessment There are many faults lies in the currently environmental assessment showed by the report of feasibility study. In some cases, there is few contents and the analysing superficially about the environmental assessment, because of there is no surveying the surroundings nearby the project or the assessment is not correct. It is obviously that those are contradiction with the strategy of sustainable development developed by our country. Moreover, there is no consideration between the project and sustaining ability of environment carried out by the investor. As a result, the developing intensity will exceed the loading capacity of environment near by the project to produce seriously environment contamination. This will increase the project later environmental protection costs, such as controling environmental pollution and strengthen the green, ect. There is a serious environmental evaluation work to be needed on environmental protection, and using real data reflect the revenue and expenditure to provide true evidences for the final decision. However, many of the feasibility study overlooked this respect that the project had been put more money in late to produce increasely the intangible cost. 2.6. Don't Pay Attention to the Analysis of the Sensitivity and Risk Factors The estate project itself has a high risk and investing, because of there are some uncertain factors in project implementation process. With these uncertainties, the investment project there is a risk, thus the uncertainty of the whole project is of vital importance. If the feasibility study of these risk factors were accurately analysed that will cause additional costs of the project.In practical work of the feasibility study , the analysis of risk is not enough or only stay in qualitative analysis, give a quantitative analysis. Though some of them to quantify, but either quantitative method unsuitable or quantitative results do not take seriously, not have a good understanding to project risk factors , thus make some project in concrete implementation appear of risk or risk factors change , led to increase costs and economic benefit greatly decreased, causing the recessive cost of production. 3. Countermeasures of Feasibility Study 3.1. Strengthening Ideological Education and Quality Education of the Decision Maker In order to make feasibility study go smoothly, decision makers should be educated to fully realize the importance and function of the feasibility study. The ideologycal recognition and definite feasibility study effect, so that it can from the fundamental guarantee of feasibility study work smoothly. In addition, there must be necessary education to investors to improve the quality and professional skills of their own, so that when making decisions they can decisively and correctly make decision to reduce implicit costs and increase profits. 3.2. Improving ability of the deviser Institutions of training feasibility study professional must be established and perfected ,related departments should organize professional training regularly. Professional ethics education should is necessary to make professionals realize the importance of feasibility study; in the mean time , in order to decrease fault because of professsional skills deficiency and increase correctness of feasibility study professional skills must be enhanced. Establishing and perfecting of the feasibility study for the vocational education training employees of the system, by related departments groups regularly for feasibility research personnel's service training. 3.3. Pay Attention to Market Investigation and Market Research In the feasibility study phase, in order to avoid "negotiable without city" awkward situation and more implicit costs, feasibility study professionals should be ready for market research and market forecast work. This requires the relevant personnel take related work seriously, guarantee the correctness of market information to reflect a true market prospect. And earnestly analyze the market consumption levels, an accurate grasp of market demand. In order to keep commodity to consumption group and to avoid implicit costs, feasibility study professionals must earnestly analyze the market consumption levels, grasp market needs and main consumption groups accurately, prepare for marketing positioning. 3.4. Compare and Chose Comprehensive Investment Project For a specific project there may be several different investment plan, after accurately study and compare of every investment project, the optimal project can be achieved. Through compare of different comprehensive investment project risks can be reduced, more profits can be achieved. That proves feasibility study plays a important role in reducing costs and making accurate decisions. 3.5. Paying More Attention to Environmental Evaluation Pay importance to environmental evaluation, abstractly analyze environmental impact. qualitative analysis must be made thoroughly if quantitative analysis is not suitable. During site selecting phase, in order to decrease later costs and implicit costs load capacity of environment around must be taken into account. When considering investment project, we should realize environment impact and economic profit to chose relatively environmental project and reduce implicit costs. 3.6. Deepen Investment Projects Sensitivity and Risk Analysis In order to effectively prevent and control the risk, in feasibility study, we should strengthen the sensitivity analysis, pay great attention to digging the potential risk factors, such as investment environment risk, project construction risk, etc. And we should pay special attention to unfavorable factors and bad results, for example, implicit cost because of residents unmovement; Implicit cost caused by construction damage and extension of construction limits time limit because of local seasonal natural disaster. Therefore we should unify the quantitative analysis and qualitative analysis and give priority to quantitative analysis so as to prevent risk purposely and make scientific decisions. If sensibility analysis and risk analysis should be based on scientific data, strategic fault of project can be reduced greatly so as to reduce implicit accuracy. 可行性研究对房地产项目隐形成本的相关问 快递公司问题件快递公司问题件货款处理关于圆的周长面积重点题型关于解方程组的题及答案关于南海问题 分析 定性数据统计分析pdf销售业绩分析模板建筑结构震害分析销售进度分析表京东商城竞争战略分析 摘要:据了解~房地产项目的可行性研究在房地产开发中起着重要的作用。然而~可行性 研究仍然存在很多问题。在本文中~隐性成本这个概念将推出~这将被用来分析这些问题. 与此同时~一些有用的战略将针对这些问题~进一步完善房地产项目可行性研究报告的真 实性。 关键词:房地产项目的可行性研究报告;隐形成本的问题 1介绍 可行性研究是决策科学已用于项目区的全面调查和研究,以在建设目标的基础上确定基本目标是有 进步的,现实的,可靠的特点,在整个项目建设进展前。我们我们还需要知道这些是否能偿还从金融和 经济的信誉给一个很大的帮助。它是真实的角色,一个框架来决定投资项目,是关键因素,可以决定这 个项目是否可以投资或不给一些支持性的项目决策。房地产是典型的,巨大的长期融资、相对于其他投 资和容易受到不稳定的因素。因此,可行性研究对于房地产是非常重要的。然而,目前我们正在越来越关 注显性成本的可行性研究而忽视隐形成本。隐形成本,相对于显性成本,他藏在总成本里面,造成企业 决策者错误的概念。信息的不足,再加上非市场因素导致总成本直接或间接地保值增值。这个数量的该 项目的经济效益在房地产上,很大程度上取决于隐形成本。 2对隐形成本存在的问题为基础的可行性研究。 近年来,房地产的可行性研究有一个很大的改进。它已成为主要内容和方法,逐步使用在项目决策。但是,可行性研究事实上并不能发挥在实际案例中提到的作用。最糟糕的是还开始工作前的没有进行可行性研究。另一个事件是,可行性研究已经完成,但效果不符合要求。存在的主要问题如下: 2.1 低素质的投资者并没有对它进行更多的关注 直到现在,很多投资者并没有得到一个明确的方法来实现产品相关的可行性研究。他们依赖他们自己的希望,对于是否建立房地产已经做了一个决定,认为可行性研究只是一个“支付纸”提交贷款机构、投资者和政府。因为进行不彻底,只关注该格式,可行性研究是没有意义的。因此,“可行性研究”的目标是如何从相关部门和银行贷款获得许可,所以数据不能用来反映实际状况。整个房地产项目的经济效益减少了,即使失败了,主要是归因于劳动者的态度,而忽略了可行性研究的重要性。那些被称为隐形成本与其他因素密切相关,一个优秀的决策者应该体现出的品质是有决心、有信心、目光长远正常等。当一个最喜欢的投资项目躺在投资者面前时,他一定是有信心和决心尽快做决定,相对于经济利益是否会发生创建隐形成本。此外,投资者在投资过程应该有远见,不在乎在一个小事件做出错误的决定的得失。很明显,这个品质是投资者避免隐形成本的一个非常重要的因素。 2.2 建设项目可行性研究主要完成顾问机构和 设计 领导形象设计圆作业设计ao工艺污水处理厂设计附属工程施工组织设计清扫机器人结构设计 者水准过低。 委托投资建设部,这是可能的。其精度在很大程度上取决于这些机构′设计者质量控制的水平。不幸的是,大多数的设计者缺乏实事求是的态度。他们用部分已使用的数据,乐观的评估市场价格运动。他们还没有开发详细的市场调查来预测市场前景;同时,他们不关心一些故障,更多的目光放在技术和产品的优势,减少投资的成功率。在设计者具有低水平的基础上,在可行性研究的过程中不能用正确的方法和 规范 编程规范下载gsp规范下载钢格栅规范下载警徽规范下载建设厅规范下载 ,决策者的一个错误的判断甚至导致整个项目的消耗过度,失去经济利益。 2.3 分析和预测的市场不够完整 投资项目的盈利能力不仅取决于可用的各种资源,而且还依赖于现有的和潜在的社会所需。目前,有没有更多的目光集中在市场调查和可行性研究预测。一个大的数据的数据是相关研究人员的经验与社会关系。尽管他们做了一个调查和预测市场趋势,但是结果是定性分析多于定量。通过以上方法测量的数据无法真正反映市场现状和前景。它似乎是喜欢有好处,因为错误预测市场导致投资项目分析所面临的条件存在故障。那些可以根据研究者的努力避免。 2.4 没有在每一个项目中进行比较 大量的科研人员更关注单一项目的可行性,忽略综合项目的可行性研究。在某些情况下,他们也分析一些项目。但在同一时间,一个特定的项目将比另一个在表面上被分析的更深入。决策者必须采用他 们的愿望值接受该项目,然后,综合研究变成单一项目研究,这将失去可行性研究的意义。因为缺乏比较项目,导致经济效益过低,相关的财务将固定失去获得更多利益的机会,从而在市场上创造更多的隐形成本。 2.5 忽视环境评估的价值 评估显示的可行性研究报告,对于当前环境有许多缺点。在某些情况下,有几个内容和分析在表面上对环境进行了评估,但是因为没有测量周围附近的项目,这些评估是不正确的。很明显,这些与我国研制的可持续发展战略有矛盾。此外,投资者没有考虑项目之间的环境和持续能力就开始。因此,开发强度将超过环境的承载能力,项目将产生严重的环境污染。这将增加项目完成后环境保护成本,如控制环境污染,加强绿色等费用。 在环境保护上,需要有一个严格的环境评估工作,使用真实的数据反映收入和支出。然而,许多可行性研究忽视了这方面,该项目将把更多的钱放在后期生产和日益增长的无形成本上。 2.6 没有注意灵敏度分析和风险因素 房地产项目本身具有很高的投资风险,因为在项目实施的过程有一些不确定的因素。这些不确定性在投资项目中存在风险,因此整个项目的不确定性分析是至关重要的。如果可行性研究不能对这些风险因素进行准确分析,将导致项目的额外成本。在实际工作的可行性研究,分析风险的投入是不足够的或只停留在定性分析。尽管他们进行了一些量化,但是要么是量化方法不合适,要么就是对定量结果不重视,没有很好地了解到项目的风险因素,从而使一些项目在具体实施之前出现风险,或风险因素变化导致成本增加,经济效益大幅下降,导致隐性成本的产生。 3 可行性研究的对策 3.1 加强决策者的思想教育和素质教育 为了使可行性研究进展顺利,决策者应该充分认识到教育的重要性和功能的可行性研究。识别和明确的意识形态卡尔可行性研究的效果,所以,它可以从根本保证可行性研究顺利工作。此外,投资者必须具有必要的教育和改善他们自己的专业技能,所以,当他们能果断正确的决策,就能减少隐性成本从而增加利润。 3.2 提高设计者的能力 培训机构必须建立和完善可行性研究专业,相关部门应定期组织专业培训。职业道德教育应是必要的,要让专业人士认识可行性研究的重要性;同时,由于技能不足,为了减少故障,提高可行性研究的正确性,必须加强专业技能的学习。建立和完善的可行性研究,为员工提供系统的职业教育培训,通过相关部门组织定期为可行性研究人员进行业务培训。 3.3重视市场调查和市场研究 在可行性研究阶段,为了避免“没有可转让城市”的尴尬局面,更隐含成本,可行性研究专业人员应 该做好迎接市场调研和市场预测工作。这需要相关人员认真采取相关工作,保证市场信息的正确性,以反映一个真正的市场前景。并认真分析市场消费水平,准确把握市场需求。为了保持商品消费群体,避免隐性成本,可行性研究专业人员必须认真分析市场消费水平,把握市场需求,把握主要消费群体,为市场准确定位。 3.4 比较和选择全面的投资项目 对于一个特定的项目可能会有几种不同的投资 计划 项目进度计划表范例计划下载计划下载计划下载课程教学计划下载 ,准确地研究和比较每一个投资项目之后,项目可以达到最优。通过比较不同的投资项目,综合风险会降低,可以获得更多的利润。这证明了可行性研究在降低成本,进行准确的决策中起着重要的作用。 3.5 更多的关注环境评价 重视环境评价,抽象地分析环境影响。如果定量分析是不合适的,定性分析必须彻底。在选择阶段,为了降低成本和隐性成本,所以对于周围环境负荷能力必须加以考虑。在考虑投资项目,我们应该意识到环境影响和经济利润,选择相对好的环境项目和减少隐性成本。 3.6 深化敏感性投资项目和风险分析 为了有效预防和控制风险,在可行性研究中,我们应该加强灵敏度分析,注重挖掘潜在风险因素,如投资环境风险、项目建设风险等等。我们应该特别注意不利因素和不良后果,例如,因为居民不配合搬迁造成的隐形成本;因为当地的季节造成限制建设建设期限的扩展从而造成隐形成本。因此我们应该统一定量分析和定性分析。并以定量分析为主,以防止风险,进行科学决策的针对性。如果敏感性分析和风险分析根据了科学数据,从而战略上的失误项目可以大大降低,以减少隐性成本。 房企并购凶猛 以弥补在土地市场直接拿地投资的减少 据北京和上海产权交易所网站显示,截至去年6月中旬,挂牌待转让房企及项目股权(及债权)累计达42宗,居各行业之首,其中有20家房企出售100%股权。与此同时,恒大、保利等大型房企正在加速收购,以弥补在土地市场直接拿地投资的减少。业内人士认为,虽然楼市向好,但金融风险却在加剧,中小房企被并购或破产频现的现象还将继续,而对于收购方来说,未来如何融合收购的项目,将是一个问题。 “大鱼吃小鱼”频现 去年6月5日,保利地产分别与上置集团以及上置投资(上置集团的控股母公司)签署股份投资意向书,公司或全资附属公司拟以0.25港元/股的价格现金认购上置集团新发股份,股份认购完成后,公司或全资附属公司将成为上置集团持股30%以上的单一最大股东。 海通证券认为,一旦本次收购完成,保利地产有望控制上海核心区域内100万平方米左右优质项目。由于一线城市土地获取难度大,交易完成将直接增强保利地产的区域经营实力。资料显示,上置集团专注房地产开发运营,以上海为重心逐步拓展至具有较大经济增长潜力的省会城市和区域中心城市,其房地产开发的物业组合,以中高档物业为主。企业目前拥有土地储备逾200万平方米,已形成跨区域发展的、综合性房地产营运企业集团。 无独有偶。去年5月28日,恒大湖北公司以16.07亿元成功摘得武汉三江航天房地产开发有限公司67.08%股权;同年6月2日晚间,恒大又宣布将以55亿元收购中渝置地旗下重庆中渝集团92%的股份。 两笔收购之后,恒大将获得重庆、武汉两个重点二线城市的大量优质土地。据介绍,重庆中渝集团拥有总建筑面积约342万平方米的已竣工物业及发展中物业,其中包含233万平方米的土地储备;而三江航天房地产在售的项目有航天双城、航天首府(武汉)、航天嘉园(三期)和航天龙城等项目,其中航天嘉园属于百万大盘,项目总体量为84万平方米。 尽管去年年初以来货币政策已经呈现明显宽松的特征,一线城市和部分二线城市楼市也已经进入快速复苏通道,但部分房企资金链断裂或被整体收购的声音仍然不绝于耳。有报道曾称百强房企华光地产资金链断裂,2000多业主无家可归;深圳房企佳兆业正在进行债务重组,尽力避免破产,而同样遭受房源被政府锁定的深圳另一房企京基集团,也被曝正在接受调查;大连亿达也被传高负债隐忧。 据北京和上海产权交易所网站显示,截至去年6月中旬,挂牌待转让房企及项目股权(及债权)累计达42宗(其中北京24宗,上海18宗),居各行业之首。其中将50%以上控股权出售的房企累计达23家,将100%股权出售的房企有20家。 四类房企将退出楼市 “在楼市基本面仍然是以去库存为主旋律的市场背景下,银行等金融机构将通过严格执行放贷企业标准、下调企业信用评级、降低抵押率,甚至停贷等方式对于风险房企或项目进行风险控制,防止楼市出现债务违约,控制自身坏账率。”同策咨询研究部总监张宏伟认为,这些动作有可能会让占有整个行业绝对数量的中小房企面临资金面紧张的问题。 张宏伟认为,在15年和未来几年里,四类企业最容易“倒下”。第一类是产品类型偏高端周转率较慢的企业,这些企业的销售业绩最容易受到影响,容易在楼市下半场赶不上市场发展节奏而被淘汰;第二类是前期拿地过于激进导致成本构成较高而影响销售资金回笼的企业,或盲目多元化扩张,导致房地产主营业务受到影响的企业;第三类是由于金融机构“风险控制”,一部分资信不太好贷款受限的中小 企业;第四类是非地产企业跨界进入楼市的企业,因为在产品标准化、融资渠道构建、购房者C端客户的把控能力等方面无法实现开发成本的降低,也无法实现较快的销售,这个时候这些企业势必会面临发展的问题。行业集中度越来越高。随着兼并浪潮加大,地产行业集中度上升的趋势已经基本确立。 从楼市下半场特征来看,房地产行业增速下滑趋势势在必然,此时,房地产行业也将呈现出规模化聚集与并购重组频繁发生的特征,“大鱼吃小鱼”的并购现象与合纵连横的“强强联合”成为新常态。“大者恒大,强者恒强”的局面正在形成。 张宏伟认为,随着楼市进入下半场,楼市的深度调整将导致更多的中小房企退出房地产或被收购,而这对于综合竞争实力较强的房企来讲则成为逆势发展的机会,尤其是对于大型品牌房企来讲,会在楼市下半场这个阶段继续“大鱼吃小鱼”,增强自身在行业内的规模化优势。 “中小房企经营困难增加,只能通过卖股权等方式获取融资,预计收购价格并不会太贵,同时,通过兼并和收购,大房企规避了传统拿地的风险,这也是近期拿地投资力度相对减少的一个原因。”易居智库研究中心研究总监严跃进说,不过,值得注意的是,项目并购之后如何融合将是一个问题,尤其目前地产板块处于调整过程中,很多外部收购的企业股权和项目如何运作,需要大房企较好的维系和平衡能力。 房贷基准利率达10年最低 8家上市银行降低按揭贷占比 2014年商业银行贷款去哪了,权威数据揭开了贷款投向的神秘面纱。具有履行社会责任意义的按揭贷款被多家银行压缩,而被监管严控的“两高一剩”行业信贷却大增近9000亿元,商业银行的贷款投向“加减法”着实令人看不懂。 上市银行中,仅四大行自2012年起连续三年个人住房贷款占比保持增长 随着央行上周六的降息决定,个人住房贷款基准利率下调至5.4%。《证券日报》记者梳理近10年数据发现,5.4%已是“史上最低”住房贷款基准利率。 然而,虽然低利率称了买房者的心,银行的算盘却打得更精。光大银行某分行个金部负责人就对本报记者表示,“现在银行的资金成本越来越高,做房贷实在是不赚钱,近些年,虽然没有哪家银行公开宣布降低住房贷款占比,但是逐步压缩对于很多银行来说已是事实”。 而中国银行业协会在前日发布的《中国银行业2015年发展报告》显示,仅国有四大行自2012年起,连续三年的个人住房贷款占比保持增长,有8家上市银行的个人住房贷款占比连续三年下降,其中,总部位于南方的某上市银行个人住房贷款收缩明显,其2013年的个人住房贷款增速为-50.53%,2014年为-14.77%。 股份制银行压缩按揭贷规模 早在前年开始,部分银行停止个人住房贷款的消息就已接踵而来。融360数据显示,从14年4月份开始,广州地区已有招商银行、民生银行、平安银行三家银行停止个人房贷业务。而在北京链家最新的面签指引中,平安银行等银行的备忘录中依旧写为暂停业务。 中国银行业协会报告指出,2014年银行业人民币口径个人住房贷款余额达11.52万亿元,同比增加1.72万亿元,但增速有明显下滑,从2013年的21%下降至17.5%。 上市银行的情况中,国有商业银行的个人住房贷款总额比重持续提高,2014年占比达到了61.01%,同比增加1.81个百分点。同时,股份制商业银行、城市商业银行的个人住房占比均有所回落,同比分别下降2.95个和7.15个百分点。从个人住房贷款业务增速上来看,城商行增速下滑明显,仅2014年就下降了9.21个百分点。 具体来看,四大行中,工行个人住房贷款占比连续三年增长明显,其2012年个人住房贷款占比仅为58.63%,2013年增长为63.08%,在去年则达到了67.58%,该数字也让工行成为了个人住房贷款占比第二大的银行,第一为个人房贷业务的“领头羊”建设银行。不过建行虽然一直保持着个人住房贷款业务较高的占比,但近两年也表现出增长乏力,其个人住房贷款增速也从2013年的22.81%下降为19.88%。 在其他10余家上市银行中,个人住房贷款则明显早已不是发展的重点。根据《证券日报》记者统计,光大银行、浦发银行、兴业银行、平安银行等8家上市银行的个人住房贷款占比自2012年起持续下降。 其中,总部位于南方的某上市银行是收缩个人住房贷款业务最迅猛的银行。其2012年的个人住房贷款占比为58.14%,而去年年底该数字已经降至14.38%,降幅高达75.3%。此外,浦发银行在近两年个人住房贷款业务也有较大调整,浦发银行的2012年个人住房贷款占比一度高达83.51%,2014年已经锐减至45.18%。 招商银行、南京银行等银行虽然在业务占比上保持了相对稳定,但在个人住房贷款增速上也都有着不同程度的下滑,南京银行从2013年的29.31%下滑至19.45%,招行在2013年也出现了20%的负增长,仅在去年才有所回升。 光大银行某分行个金部负责人对《证券日报》记者表示,“银行资金成本过高,息差收窄是股份制商业银行打退堂鼓的重要原因。做住房贷款和小微贷款一样,履行社会责任的意义显然要大于盈利,资金成本较低的国有大行要保持个人住房贷款市场的稳定,中小银行亦可以开展差异化经营”。 中国银行业协会指出,随着利率市场化加快、互联网金融兴起等因素,中国银行业已经进入高成本时代,2014年,各行存款平均成本率普遍上升,股份制商业银行的各项存款平均成本率均高于大型商业银行。 存款成本率即成本费用支出总额与存款平均余额的比例,该数字反应了各家银行获得存款的成本差异。根据数据显示,光大银行个人定期存款的平均成本率在2014年已经高达3.9%,比2013年增加近两成;平安银行的个人定期存款平均成本率在2014年也高于银行平均水平达到3.79%;中信银行也从2013年的3.12%增长到3.49%。 与之形成鲜明度比的是,国有大行在该项数据上保持了稳定。工商银行2014年的个人定期存款平均成本率仅为3.38%,比2013年上升了0.02个百分点,建设银行的成本更低,为3.24%,同样仅比2013年上涨了0.02个百分点。雪上加霜的是,2014年的企业存款占比也在持续下降,截至2014年年底,企业存款余额为38.98万亿元,比2013年同期下降了接近1个百分点。中国银行业协会人士指出,企业存款占比逐年下降原因是企业大部分闲置资金由存款变成了对公理财产品。
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