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魏剑峰的经济学人笔记PAGE/NUMPAGES魏剑峰的经济学人笔记来自魏剑峰，公众号：经济学人赏析1.IfMrYanukovychclingson,weakenedathomeandostracisedabroad,MrPutinwillbecontent,forhewillhaveanotherdependentleadertoaddtohiscollectionofpliableclients.2.Fiscalshamemayhelppreventafiscalfright.3.Up-to-dateinformationonthesefiscallifelinesisnoteasytocomeby.Buttheirsizecanbeinferredfromotherratiospresentedintheprovincialauditreports.4.Butthedaysofangerandrecriminationhavebeenforgotten.5.By2010thenumberhadrisenmorethantenfoldthankstoahugeexpansioninadmissionstouniversitiesandtechnicalcollegessincethebeginningofthecentury.6.Theinterestinmembershipisabyproductoftheexpansionofcollegeenrolment,whichhascreatedaglutofgraduatesinthejobmarket.7.Incompetitionforjobsatstate-ownedenterprises(SOEs),whichareamongthemostcovetedofall,alackofpartymembershipappearstobenobar.8.Butmeritocracyextendsonlysofar:thepartystillkeepsthetopslotsforitsown.9.ThatcouldbearecognitionbySOEsthatabilitytrumpspoliticalloyaltyforentry-leveljobs.10.Chinesedirectorsandofficialswereecstatic.11.MrDiaoishopefulhisfilm?candotheimprobable:thrillviewersathomeandabroad,passChinesecensorsandstaytruetohisartisticvision.12.Theopeningscenesdepictdismemberedbodypartstumblingalongacoalchute.13.AUNreportaccusesNorthKoreaof“unspeakable”human-rightsabusesandhintsatChina’scomplicityinsomeofthem14.prisonerswereforcedtoforageforfoodinthewild15.Itinterviewedanother240victimsconfidentially(manyfearreprisalsonfamilymembersstillinNorthKorea).16.ItincludesacatalogueofcrueltiesmetedoutbytheNorthKoreanregimetoitsmaintargets:17.thefiercenessofitscondemnation.Itdescribesatotalitarianstatethatiswithoutparallelinthecontemporaryworld.18.NorthKoreahasflatlyrejectedtheUN’saccusations,justasitcontinuestodenytheexistenceofitsnetworkofprisoncamps.19.Althoughscepticsarguethatthereportamountstolittlemorethanacallformoreengagement(includinginter-Koreandialogueandhumanitarianaid),itmayhelptopushhumanrightshigheruptheagenda.20.TheAmericangovernmentwillnownolongerbeabletoprioritiseoneissueovertheother,21.Chinahasavisceraldislikeofhuman-rightsinvestigations.22.Itfearsthatcondoningtheexposureofothercountries’abusesmightinvitescrutinyofitsown.23.OneisthattheChinesepublicmightstepupcriticismoftheirgovernment’ssupportfortheNorth.24.suchissuesmightpromptMrKimtobecomemorebellicose.25.Andtheviralnatureofitsappealmeansithasachievedallthiswithoutspendingapennyonmarketing.26.entrepreneurscancreateglobe-spanningbusinessesonshoestringbudgets.27.Indeed,WhatsApp’ssuccessinmanywaysmirrorsthatofFacebookitself,whichcamefromnowheretodominatesocialnetworking.28.Recently,however,Facebookhasbeenlosingsomeofitscool,especiallyamongyoungerusers.29.ThatmayexplainwhythefamouslyparanoidMrZuckerbergiswillingtopayaking’sransomforacompanythatmightultimatelyeclipsehisowncreation.30.MrKoum,whohasawell-knownaversiontocollectingpeople’sdataandplasteringadvertisingoverhisapp,seemsanoddbedfellowforFacebook.31.Thehalfoption—seeminglykeptaliveasasoptoBorisJohnson,London’smayor—istoshutHeathrowandbuildagiantmodernairporteastofthecapital.32.Inbigcitiesbusinessisdownatmanyofthebestprivateclubsandrestaurants.33.Meanwhile,thecampaignforofficialfrugalitypresseson.34.ONTHEnightofJanuary30th700mviewerswillseeintheyearofthehorsebywatchingthe“SpringFestivalGala”onChinesetelevision,afour-hourparadeofsong,danceandatraditionalformoftwo-mancomicreparteecalledxiangsheng.Popular35.ONTHEnightofJanuary30th700mviewerswillseeintheyearofthehorsebywatchingthe“SpringFestivalGala”onChinesetelevision,afour-hourparadeofsong,danceandatraditionalformoftwo-mancomicreparteecalledxiangsheng.Popularopinionamongtheincreasinglysophisticatedurbanpopulaceisthattheprogrammeischeesyandthejokeslame.36.Fodderforjokesrangesfromtheuniversal—citylife,loserslookingforagirlfriend—tothelatestsocialissuessuchasunaffordablehousing.37.TopicsforjokesincludeChina’suncouthnouveauxrichesandfood-safetyscandals.38.Politicscanbehintedatbutonlyobliquely:39.Popularangeragainstmedicalstaffsometimesspillsover.40.Oneofthemainreasonsforsuchhostilityisthehighpriceofmedicinesandthecorruptionthatcontributestoit.41.Yetarecentspateofscandalsinvolvingpublichospitalssuggeststhatfewheedtheprohibition.42.Butitisalsotheresultofasystemthatinflatesthecostofmedicine.43.EventhecheapestgenericdrugssoldinChinesehospitalsaremuchmoreexpensivethantheirinternationalbenchmark.44.Thegovernmenthastakenaseriesofmeasurestoattackthisproblem,45.“sinceyoudon’tletmetakekickbacksopenly,I’lldoitunderthetable.”46.InJulylocalauthoritiesinthecityofZhangzhouinFujianprovincerecoveredover20myuan($3.3m)thatmorethan1,000medicalprofessionalshadtakeninbribesfrompharmaceuticalrepresentatives.47.Drugfirmshaveastrongincentivetogettheirproductsintothehandsofdoctorsathospitals,48.Somedistributorsissueorbuyinflatedinvoicestoextractlargesumsofcash,creatingslushfundstobribeofficialsanddoctors.49.Fourseniorexecutivesofthecompanyhavebeendetainedoverallegationsoffunnellinguptothreebillionyuan($490m)totravelagenciestofundbribestodoctorsandgovernmentofficials.50.theprofitmarginsofdrugcompaniesaresqueezedastheystrivetoofferbiggerkickbackstohospitals.51.hegrewupinruralpovertyandreadengineeringatuniversity.52.ButwhenLenovoboughtIBM’spersonal-computerdivisionin2005hedecidedtoimmersehimselfinEnglish:hemovedhisfamilytoNorthCarolina,hiredalanguagetutorand—theultimatesacrifice—spenthourswatchingcable-TVnews.This53.Chinesefirmsareprovinghardertocrack:theyhaveahugeinternalmarketandarestrugglingtorecruitcompetentmanagersofanydescription,letaloneEnglish-speakers.54.TsedalNeeleyofHarvardBusinessSchoolsaysthat“Englishnisation”,awordsheborrowsfromMrMikitani,canstirupahornet’snestofemotions.55.Slowlearnerslosetheirself-confidence,worryabouttheirjobsecurity,clamupinmeetingsorjoinaguerrillaresistancethatconspiresinitsnativelanguage.56.MsNeeleyarguesthatcompaniesmustthinkcarefullyaboutimplementingapolicythattouchesonsomanyemotions.57.ThosewhoarealreadyproficientinEnglishshouldspeakmoreslowlyandrefrainfromdominatingconversations.58.MrMikitani,whowasafluentEnglishspeakerhimself,atfirsttoldhisemployeestopayfortheirownlessonsandgavethemtwoyearstobecomefluent,onpainofdemotionorevendismissal.59.themostproficientspeakerscanstillstruggletoexpressnuanceandemotioninaforeigntongue.60.ButbusinessesworldwidearefacinguptotherealitythatEnglishisthelanguageonwhichthesunneversets.61.thisreason,nativeEnglishspeakersoftenassumethatthespreadoftheirlanguageinglobalcorporatelifeconfersanautomaticadvantageonthem.62.Infactitcaneasilyencouragethemtorestontheirlaurels.63.MarkHarperhadspearheadedthegovernment’scampaignstocrackdownonillegalworkersandtodeterlegalEuropeanmigrantsfromcomingtoBritain.64.Thailand’sconstitutionalcourtrejectedanoppositionrequesttoannulthegeneralelectionthatwasheldonFebruary2nd.65.SeniordiplomatsfromNorthandSouthKoreaheldtalks,hastilysetupattheNorth’ssuggestion.66.YoichiMasuzoecruisedtovictorytobecomegovernorofTokyo.67.America’sJusticeDepartmentissuedanedicttoitsstafftorecognisesame-sexmarriage“asbroadlyaspossible”underfederallaw.68.MrJiang,inagreyT-shirtand3Dglasses,scurriesupanddownthestagegivingdirections.69.ItwasaboutabanditwhoposesasthemayorofaremoteChinesetown.70.Thegovernmentdidnotappreciateitsportrayalofanillegitimateleadergullingthemasses,butthefilmwaswildlypopular.71.Ithasabudgetofaround$50m,aprincelysumbyChinesemovie-makingstandards.72.Youngpeople,flushwithcash,areeagertogetoutofthehouse.73.EnormousIMAXscreensand3Dfilmsaretherage,andinbigcitiescarryasimilarticketpricetoAmerica.74.only7%ofBritishfilmsturnaprofit.75.TogainafootholdinChina,Hollywoodstudiosarehelpingfinancefilmsorco-producingthem.76.ItgotflakfromtheWesternpressforshootingamovieinLinyi,77.Yetthedifferencesaremoreobviousthanthesimilarities.78.EvencostlyChinesemoviesoftenlookamateurish.79.itwantspeopletoseefilmsthatwillinculcateChinesevaluesandculture.80.WhileproducersinHollywoodtrytodrumupasmuchinterestaspossibleintheirfilms,thoseinChinakeepthemquiet,soasnottopiquecensors’interestorsuspicion.81.Asaccharinetributetomaterialism,“TinyTimes”didparticularlywellinsmaller,less-developed“tier3”and“tier4”cities,whosecitizensaspiretoberichandfashionablebutwanttowatchcharactersthatfeelhome-grown.82.Theplotstendtobebluntandtheactingmelodramatic.83.TheChinesefilmthathasgarneredmostattentionintheWestlatelyis“ATouchofSin”84.StrugglingBlackBerrycalledoffadealwherebyitslargestinvestorwouldhavetakenitprivate;85.Chinaalsofurtherrelaxeditsone-childpolicy,inplacesincethe1970s,byallowingparentstohavetwochildrenifoneoftheparentsisanonlychild.86.BarackObama’sapprovalratingsheadedtotheemergencyroomafterthebotchedroll-outofhishealth-carereforms.87.InTurkeyaprotestagainstdevelopingaparkinIstanbulsnowballedintonationwidedemonstrationsagainsttheauthoritariantoneofRecepTayyipErdogan’sgovernment.88.Elsewhere,anincreaseinfaresonS?oPaulo’sbuseswasthecatalystforbringingmillionsofdisaffectedBraziliansoutontothestreetsin100cities.89.TherewasasenseofdéjàvuaboutprotestsinThailand(againstagovernmentrunbyamemberoftheShinawatrafamily),Ukraine(againstanunreconstructedpro-Russianpresident)andGreece(againstjustabouteverything).90.twoBritishIslamistsofNigeriandescentshockedLondonerswhentheyrandownanoff-dutysoldierandtriedtodecapitatehim.91.ButthegovernmentdeclaredthatausteritywasbearingfruitafterseveralinternationalforecastsofBritishgrowthwererevisedupwards.92.Butitspriceisvolatile,soaringfrom$15inJanuarytoabove$1,200inearlyDecemberandcrashingtounder$600aweeklater.93.SmallfoodcompaniesinEuropefacedanunbridleddisasterwhenitemergedthatafewsupplierstoBritishsupermarketswereusinghorsemeatinsteadofbeefinfrozenmeals.94.Nowadays,themajorityofeconomistsconfidentlywavesuchworriesaway.95.Onthecontrary,itcreatedemploymentopportunitiessufficienttosoakupthe20thcentury’sexplodingpopulation.96.Yetsomenowfearthataneweraofautomationenabledbyevermorepowerfulandcapablecomputerscouldworkoutdifferently.97.InAmericatherealwagehashardlybudgedoverthepastfourdecades.98.Forthosenotintheelite,arguesDavidGraeber,ananthropologistattheLondonSchoolofEconomics,muchofmodernlabourconsistsofstultifying“bullshitjobs”—low-andmid-levelscreen-sittingthatservessimplytooccupyworkersforwhomtheeconomynolongerhasmuchuse.99.Bethatasitmay,drudgerymaysoonenoughgivewaytofrankunemployment.100.Yettheroadtoricheswasrockierthanisoftenappreciated.101.Bossesimposedatightscheduleandstrictworkerdisciplinetokeepuptheproductivepace.102.themoreintricatemachines,techniquesandsupplychainsoftheperiodallrequiredcarefultending.103.ThiswasthelosstowhichtheLuddites,understandablyifnoteffectively,tookexception.104.Notuntilthelate19thcentury,whenthegainshadspreadacrossthewholeeconomy,didwagesatlastperforminlinewithproductivity105.For60years,from1770to1830,growthinBritishwages,adjustedforinflation,wasimperceptiblebecauseproductivitygrowthwasrestrictedtoafewindustries.106.Althoughinmanysimpleeconomicmodelstechnologypairsneatlywithcapitalandlabourtoproduceoutput,inpracticetechnologicalchangesdonotaffectallworkersthesameway.107.Somefindthattheirskillsarecomplementarytonewtechnologies.Othersfindthemselvesoutofwork.108.Thedevelopmentofmechanicalandelectroniccomputingrenderedthesearrangementsobsolete.109.Newmachinerydisplacedhandicraftproducersacrossnumerousindustries,110.Astartlingprogressionofinventionsseemstobeartheirthesisout.111.Itsacumenwillgrow,anditscostsfall,asfirmslearntoharnessitsabilities.112.richeconomiesseemtobebifurcatingintoasmallgroupofworkerswithskillshighlycomplementarywithmachineintelligence,forwhomhehashighhopes,andtherest,forwhomnotsomuch.113.developingthebusinessmodelswhichmakethebestuseofnewtechnologieswillinvolvetrialanderrorandhumanflexibility,114.Justaspastmechanisationfreed,orforced,workersintojobsrequiringmorecognitivedexterity,leapsinmachineintelligencecouldcreatespaceforpeopletospecialiseinmoreemotiveoccupations,115.However,societymayfinditselfsorelytestedif,asseemspossible,growthandinnovationdeliverhandsomegainstotheskilled,whiletherestclingtodwindlingemploymentopportunitiesatstagnantwages.116.Butpoliticianshaverecentlysoughttheirscapegoatsmorewidely,fromenergycompaniestotechnologygiants,117.Fortragediesofthecommonstobeaverted,rulesandinstitutionsareneededtobalancetheshort-terminterestsofindividualsagainstthelong-terminterestsofallusers.118.Governmentsshouldmakeitmandatory,creatingaglobalrecordofvesselstohelpcrackdownonillegalhigh-seasfishing.119.Non-membersbreaktheruleswithimpunity.120.Sointhemeantimethelawoftheseashouldbebeefedup.121.Twoofthebiggest—acidificationandpollution—emanatefromtheland.122.Britain’sthreemainpoliticalpartiesflatlydeclaredthattheywouldnotcountenanceacurrencyunionwithanindependentScotland.123.MrSalmondhasrespondedwithamixtureofbluster,denial,obfuscationandcrudethreat.124.Evenwhileitremainsapetro-state,Scotland’srevenueswillveerupanddownwithoilprices.125.Divorceinhaste,repentatleisure126.Nonsense:thedisputeoverthepoundisjustatasterofthebitterrowsthatwouldfollow—involvingthedivisionofNorthSeaoil,pensionpaymentsandmuchelse.127.MrSalmondseemstoforgetthatBritishpoliticianswouldnolongerbebeholdentothepeopleofhiscountry.128.Therecouldbenosuggestionthatthemeetingwasofequals,asonesideimagined,northatitwasofasupplicantgreetinghismaster,astheotherwouldprefertobelieve.129.Themeetingitselfwasaphotoopportunity,moresymbolicthansubstantive.130.Inspiteofsharedlinguisticandculturalties,trustremainslowaftermorethansixdecadesofenmity.131.China’sincreasingassertivenessintheregionmightbebroughttobearonTaiwan.132.SoChinaisinabind.Ifitpushestoohard,thentheTaiwanesepushback.133.EconomicswasnotthesubjectonwhichMrXiawasmostforthright.134.China’scontinuedmodernisationhasmeantthatstudentsaremoreopentoWesterninfluencesandhavemoresocialandeconomicfreedomsthaneverbefore.135.Thathasmadetheclampdownontheirteachersevenmorejarring.136.MrZhang,thelegalscholar,seeshisowndismissalasascaretacticthatwillfailinthelongtermasthedissonancegrowsbetweenpoliticsandeverydaylife.137.LastyearChina’sexchangerate,weightedbytradeandadjustedforinflation,rosebyover7%,accordingtotheBankforInternationalSettlements.138.But,ashepointsout,China’seconomyisnowfarbiggerthanitwaswhenitwascausingsomuchinternationalconsternation.139.Inefficientgovernmentinterventionscreatedacapitalismwithoutmarketsandasocialismwithoutplanning.140.Unfortunately,PresidentCristinaFernándezhasafixationwiththosepolicies,whichmeanswearetrippingoverthesamestone.141.Argentinaisindeedconfrontingsomebigissues,buttoaddsomenuancetoyourargument,itisalsoreceivingarecordnumberofforeignscientistssuchasmyself,becauseoftheprofessionalandsocialopportunitiesitoffers.142.Inmyowncase,notonlydidArgentinaprovidemyhusbandandmewithgreatjobs,butourdecisionwasalsomotivatedbythefactthatherewehavemorelegalandsocialrightsthanintheUnitedStates.143.Togetoutofthismess,Argentinesneednothingshortofaprofoundculturaltransformation.144.Itenjoys8%higherGDPperheadthanArgentina.UnlikeArgentinaandmanyothers,PolandadvancedbytenplacesintheWorldBank’s“DoingBusiness”rankingfor2014.145.PicturingArgentina’shistoryas100yearsofgradualdeclinemaybetoosimplistic.146.SIR–Schumpeter’scolumnonthedominanceofEnglishasabusinesslanguage(February15th)missedtheimportantpointthatnativeEnglish-speakershavealargevocabulary,speakfastandoftenusefigurativeexpressions.Aformerbossofminewasfondofusingcricketingmetaphors,tothebafflementofhisinternationalaudience.147.Inthiscase,likesomanyothers,palatablesolutionswillnowbefound.148.IrecallreadingafewyearsagothatsomeonedevelopedacondomthatplayedRussianpatriotictunes.149.Autocratsloseofficethesameway,asthefateofViktorYanukovych,Ukraine’sdeposedpresident,dramaticallyillustrates.150.AfterthesavageshootingofscoresofhisownpeopleinKiev,Ukraine’scapital,once-supportivetycoonsandgeneralsabandonedhim,andhispowerevaporated.151.withMrYanukovychgone,Ukrainehasachanceatlasttoditchitsersatz,post-Sovietversionofdemocracyforthegenuinekind.152.fortheEuropeanUnion,inparticular,thisisachancetoshowthat,forallitsinternalfissuresandforeign-policyquiescence,itismorethanabustedflush.153.Byanyhistoricalmeasure,UkraineispartofEurope.154.TensioniscracklingbetweenUkrainianswhowelcometherevolution,andthosewhorepudiateit:inKievitsvictimsaremournedasmartyrs,yetelsewheretheriotpolicewhobattledthemarelionised.155.Evenwiththeunadulteratedgoodwillofoutsiders,thesituationwouldbeperilous—andgoodwillisnotconspicuousintheKremlin,whichproppedupMrYanukovych’spresidencyandnowdenouncesthosewhooustedhimasterrorists.156.Meanwhile,thisperenniallymismanagednationisalmostbroke.157.Whenhewasn’tpillaginghiscountry,MrYanukovychundermineditscourts,suborneditsconstitutionandharasseditsmedia,institutionsthatareasmuchapartofanenduringdemocracyaselections(seeessay).158.Russiaisunlikelytohonourthe$15billionbail-outitagreedwithMrYanukovychinDecember.159.Europeanscanhelp,too,bothwithtechnicalassistanceandbyholdingoutthebestinducementtoreformtheycanoffer:160.TheEUanditsalliesshoulddoallthisbecauseitisright,ratherthantorileVladimirPutin.161.HeexorcisedhisgrievanceovertheKosovowarof1999byinvadingGeorgiain2008.162.UkraineismuchmoreimportanttohimthanGeorgia,forwithoutitRussia’ssphereofinfluencelookspaltry.163.Creatinganhonest,competentgovernment,devotedtothewell-beingofitspeople,isthebestwaytopersuadeallUkrainiansthattheyarebetteroffwithoutthekleptocrats—and,incidentally,toshowthattheWestisstillaforceforgood.164.CanUkrainefindanyleaderswhowillliveuptotheaspirationsofitsbattered,victoriousbutscepticalprotesters?165.Acrowdoftensofthousandsheckledthemainstreampoliticiansandcheeredthose—aboutathird—whowerenominatedfromtheirownactivistranks.166.TherevolutionwhichlastweeksawtheoverthrowofMrYanukovych,acorrupt,cowardlyandthuggishpresident,hasnotyetbeengivenaname.167.Yanukovychisgoneandhisregimebroken,butthepost-SovietorderwhichprevailedinUkraineoverthepasttwodecadeshasnotbeenuprooted.168.thepossibilityoffailure,adescentintochaos,insurrection—notablyintheCrimea—orevensecessionremainsstark.169.Thereislittlebywayofanelitedevotedtoforginganew,modernnationstate;170.In1917tsaristRussiavanishedwithinjustthreedays.TheSovietUnionwasdespatchedinjustasshortatumultinAugust1991.171.Ukrainians—particularlyyoungones—sawalifelinethatmighthavewinchedthemuptoacivilisedEuropeanworldbeingcut,andthe“EuroMaidan”protestsbegan.172.TheHouseofTradeUnions,whichservedasarevolutionarynewscentreandhospital,hadbeentorched.173.itwasabroaderuprisingagainstamalevolentstatewhichfailedinitsbasictasks—astateinwhichthegovernmentrobbedthepublicratherthanservedit,inwhichthecourtscoveredupinjusticeratherthanrightit,inwhichprosecutorsperpetratedcrimesinsteadofinvestigatingthem.174.Inpartbecauseofthatbroaderagenda,inpartbecauseoflastweek’sbrutality,theswiftoverthrowofMrYanukovychproducednoeuphoria.175.OverthepastthreemonthsofdemonstrationsMaidandisplayedexemplarydisciplineandself-organisation.176.Civilordermaywellbemaintained;butUkraineisalsostaringintoaneconomicabyss.177.thepresidentandhisfamily,broadlyconstrued,embezzledbetween$8billionand$10billionayearsincehetookpowerin2010.178.butitwilldriveupinflationandencourageallwhocantogettheirmoneyoutofthecountry’sbankstodoso.179.Thefirstwillbringpromptpaintoalmostallcitizens,thesecondwillberesistedbymanyfunctionaries.180.AlessvisiblebattlehasbeengoingonbetweenvariousUkrainianoligarchsandthemembersofMrYanukovych’sextendedfamilywhotooktheirplaceatthetrough.181.IntheOrangerevolutionshewastreatedlikeamessiah.Thistime,whilepeopleweregladtoseethatshehadbeenfreed,theyknewbetterthantoputtheirfateinherhands—orthoseofanyotherpoliticianforthatmatter.182.Whatcomplicatesthepicturefurtheristhatholdingthecountrytogetherdependsinlargemeasureontheco-operationoftheoligarchs,183.SomethisistheproductofhystericalpropagandaontheRussiantelevisionchannelsthatarewatchedonthatsideofthecountry.184.SomepeopleinDonetsk—MrYanukovych’shomecity—havesaidtheywillreciprocatebyspeakingUkrainian.185.Sebastopol,Crimea’slargestcity,ismostlypopulatedbyRussians—notleastbecauseitishometoRussia’sBlackSeafleet.186.PoliticiansinRussiaaretalkingofdistributingpassportsinCrimea—aruseusedtostrengthenRussia’spretextforannexingtheGeorgianregionsofSouthOssetiaandAbkhaziain2008.187.Whilemakingnopubliccomme